In search of Nirvana : why Nirvana : the True Story could never be "true"

In my book Nirvana: The True Story (2006), I undertake an autoethnographical approach to biography, attempting to impart an understanding of my chosen subject - the rock band Nirvana - via discussion of my own experiences. On numerous occasions, I veer off into tangential asides, frequently using extensive footnotes to explain obscure musical references. Personal anecdotes are juxtaposed with "insider" information; at crucial points in the story (notable concerts, the first meeting of singer Kurt Cobain with his future wife Courtney Love, the news of Cobain's suicide), the linear thread of the narrative spills over into a multi-faceted approach, with several different (and sometimes opposing) voices given equal prominence. Despite my firsthand experience of the band, however, Nirvana: The True Story is not considered authoritative, even within its own field. This article considers the reasons why this may be the case.In my book Nirvana: The True Story (2006), I undertake an autoethnographical approach to biography, attempting to impart an understanding of my chosen subject - the rock band Nirvana - via discussion of my own experiences. On numerous occasions, I veer off into tangential asides, frequently using extensive footnotes to explain obscure musical references. Personal anecdotes are juxtaposed with "insider" information; at crucial points in the story (notable concerts, the first meeting of singer Kurt Cobain with his future wife Courtney Love, the news of Cobain's suicide), the linear thread of the narrative spills over into a multi-faceted approach, with several different (and sometimes opposing) voices given equal prominence. Despite my firsthand experience of the band, however, Nirvana: The True Story is not considered authoritative, even within its own field. This article considers the reasons why this may be the case.

In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Still in Search of the Good Life

At the 2014 G20 held in Brisbane, Australia took the position that climate change is not an economic issue. Most others thought it was - especially the Turkish Prime Minister who is hosting the 2015 G20. It is certainly an economic issue. But, it is not just an economic issue - either in the source or the solution.

Generalizability of established prostate cancer risk variants in men of African ancestry

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 80 risk variants for prostate cancer, mainly in European or Asian populations. The generalizability of these variants in other racial/ethnic populations needs to be understood before the loci can be used widely in risk modeling. In our study, we examined 82 previously reported risk variants in 4,853 prostate cancer cases and 4,678 controls of African ancestry. We performed association testing for each variant using logistic regression adjusted for age, study and global ancestry. Of the 82 known risk variants, 68 (83%) had effects that were directionally consistent in their association with prostate cancer risk and 30 (37%) were significantly associated with risk at p < 0.05, with the most statistically significant variants being rs116041037 (p = 3.7 × 10(-26) ) and rs6983561 (p = 1.1 × 10(-16) ) at 8q24, as well as rs7210100 (p = 5.4 × 10(-8) ) at 17q21. By exploring each locus in search of better markers, the number of variants that captured risk in men of African ancestry (p < 0.05) increased from 30 (37%) to 44 (54%). An aggregate score comprised of these 44 markers was strongly associated with prostate cancer risk [per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.12, p = 7.3 × 10(-98) ]. In summary, the consistent directions of effects for the vast majority of variants in men of African ancestry indicate common functional alleles that are shared across populations. Further exploration of these susceptibility loci is needed to identify the underlying biologically relevant variants to improve prostate cancer risk modeling in populations of African ancestry.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

The influence of travel time and size of shopping center towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers in surabaya

Visiting a modern shopping center is becoming vital in our society nowadays. The fast growth of shopping center, transportation system, and modern vehicles has given more choices for consumers in shopping. Although there are many reasons for the consumers in visiting the shopping center, the influence of travel time and size of shopping center are important things to be considered towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers. A survey to the customers of three major shopping centers in Surabaya has been conducted to evaluate the Ellwood’s model and Huff’s model. A new exponent value N of 0.48 and n of 0.50 has been found from the Ellwood’s model, while a coefficient of 0.267 and an add value of 0.245 have been found from the Huff’s model.

Effects of switching time on output voltages of a multilevel inverter used in high frequency applications

Employing multilevel inverters is a proper solution to reduce harmonic content of output voltage and electromagnetic interference in high power electronic applications. In this paper, a new pulse width modulation method for multilevel inverters is proposed in which power devices’ on-off switching times have been considered. This method can be surveyed in order to analyse the effect of switching time on harmonic contents of output voltage in high frequency applications when a switching time is not negligible compared to a switching cycle. Fast Fourier transform calculation and analysis of output voltage waveforms and harmonic contents with regard to switching time variation are presented in this paper for a single phase (3, 5)-level inverters used in high voltage and high frequency converters. Mathematical analysis and MATLAB simulation results have been carried out to validate the proposed method.

Anxiety among high school students in India : comparisons across gender, school type, social strata, and perceptions of quality time with parents

The broad objective of the study was to better understand anxiety among adolescents in Kolkata city, India. Specifically, the study compared anxiety across gender, school type, socio-economic background and mothers’ employment status. The study also examined adolescents’ perceptions of quality time with their parents. A group of 460 adolescents (220 boys and 240 girls), aged 13-17 years were recruited to participate in the study via a multi-stage sampling technique. The data were collected using a self-report semi-structured questionnaire and a standardized psychological test, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results show that anxiety was prevalent in the sample with 20.1% of boys and 17.9% of girls found to be suffering from high anxiety. More boys were anxious than girls (p<0.01). Adolescents from Bengali medium schools were more anxious than adolescents from English medium schools (p<0.01). Adolescents belonging to the middle class (middle socio-economic group) suffered more anxiety than those from both high and low socio-economic groups (p<0.01). Adolescents with working mothers were found to be more anxious (p<0.01). Results also show that a substantial proportion of the adolescents perceived they did not receive quality time from fathers (32.1%) and mothers (21.3%). A large number of them also did not feel comfortable to share their personal issues with their parents (60.0% for fathers and 40.0% for mothers).

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Correlates of sitting time in working age Australian women : who should be targeted with interventions to decrease sitting time?

Background: While there is emerging evidence that sedentary behavior is negatively associated with health risk, research on the correlates of sitting time in adults is scarce. Methods: Self-report data from 7,724 women born between 1973-1978 and 8,198 women born between 1946-1951 were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Linear regression models were computed to examine whether demographic, family and caring duties, time use, health and health behavior variables were associated with weekday sitting time. Results: Mean sitting time (SD) was 6.60 (3.32) hours/day for the 1973-1978 cohort and 5.70 (3.04) hours/day for the 1946-1951 cohort. Indicators of socio-economic advantage, such as full11 time work and skilled occupations in both cohorts and university education in the mid-age cohort, were associated with high sitting time. A cluster of ‘healthy behaviours’ was associated with lower sitting time in the mid-aged women (moderate/high physical activity levels, non-smoking, non-drinking). For both cohorts, sitting time was highest in women in full-time work, in skilled occupations and in those who spent the most time in passive leisure. Conclusions: The results suggest that, in young and mid-aged women, interventions for reducing sitting time should focus on both occupational and leisure-time sitting.

Output feedback control of discrete-time systems in networked environments

This correspondence paper addresses the problem of output feedback stabilization of control systems in networked environments with quality-of-service (QoS) constraints. The problem is investigated in discrete-time state space using Lyapunov’s stability theory and the linear inequality matrix technique. A new discrete-time modeling approach is developed to describe a networked control system (NCS) with parameter uncertainties and nonideal network QoS. It integrates a network-induced delay, packet dropout, and other network behaviors into a unified framework. With this modeling, an improved stability condition, which is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of the equivalent network-induced delay, is established for the NCS with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. It is further extended for the output feedback stabilization of the NCS with nonideal QoS. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the main results of the theoretical development.

Cystine-mediated oxidative defence in Lactobacillus reuteri BR11

Lactobacillus reuteri BR11 possesses an abundant cystine uptake (Cyu) ABC-transporter that was previously found to be involved in a novel mechanism of oxidative defence mediated by cystine. The current study aimed to elucidate this mechanism with a focus on the role of the co-transcribed cystathionine ã-lyase (Cgl). Growth studies of wild-type L. reuteri BR11 and mutants inactivated in cgl and the cystine-binding protein encoding gene cyuC showed that in contrast to the Cyu transporter, whose inactivation led to growth arrest in aerated cultures, Cgl is not crucial for oxidative defence. However, the role of Cgl in oxidative defence became apparent in the presence of severe oxidative damage and cysteine deprivation. Cysteine was found to be protective against oxidative stress, and the action of Cgl in both cysteine biosynthesis and degradation poses a seemingly futile pathway that deprives the intracellular cysteine pool. To further characterise the relationship between Cgl activity and cysteine and their roles in oxidative defence, enzymatic assays were performed on purified Cgl, and intracellular concentrations of cysteine, cystathionine and methionine were determined. Cgl was highly active towards cystine and cystathionine and less active towards cysteine in vitro, suggesting the main function of Cgl to be cysteine biosynthesis. Cysteine was found at high concentrations in the cell, but the levels were not significantly affected by inactivation of cgl or growth under aerobic conditions. It was concluded that both anabolic and catabolic activities of Cgl towards cysteine contribute to oxidative defence, the former by maintaining an intracellular reservoir of thiol analogous to glutathione, and the latter by producing H2S which is readily secreted, thus creating a reducing extracellular environment. The significance of the Cyu transporter to the physiology of L. reuteri BR11 prompted a phylogenetic study to determine its presence in bacteria. Orthologs of the Cyu transporter that are closest matches to the Cyu transporter are only limited to several species of Lactobacillus and Leuconostoc. Outside the Lactobacillales order, the closest matching orthologs belong to Proteobacteria, and there are more orthologs in Proteobacteria than non-Lactobacillales Firmicutes, suggesting that the Cyu transporter locus was present in the ancestor of the Proteobacteria and Firmicutes, and over evolutionary time has been lost or diverged in many Firmicutes. The clustering of the Cyu transporter locus with a gene encoding a Cgl family protein is even rarer. It was only found in L. reuteri, Lactobacillus vaginalis, Weissella paramesenteroides, the Lactobacillus casei group, and several Campylobacter sp. An accompanying phylogenetic study of L. reuteri BR11 using multi-locus sequence analysis showed that L. reuteri BR11 had diverged from more than 100 strains of L. reuteri isolated from various hosts and geographical locations. However, comparison with other Lactobacillus species supported the current classification of BR11 as L. reuteri. The most closely related species to L. reuteri is L. vaginalis or Lactobacillus antri, depending on the housekeeping gene used for analysis. The close evolutionary relationship of L. vaginalis to L. reuteri and the high degree of sequence identity between the cgl-cyuABC loci in both species suggest that the Cyu system is highly likely to perform similar functions in L. vaginalis. In search of other genes that function in oxidative defence, a number of mutants which were inactivated in genes that confer increased resistance to oxidative stress in other bacteria were constructed. The genes targeted were ahpC (peroxidase component of the alkyl hydroperoxide reductase system), tpx (thiol peroxidase), osmC (osmotically induced protein C), mntH (Mn2+/Fe2+ transporter), gshA (ã-glutamylcysteine synthetase) and msrA (methionine sulfoxide reductase). The ahpC and mntH mutants had slightly lower minimum inhibitory concentrations of organic peroxides, suggesting these genes might be involved in resistance to organic peroxides in L. reuteri. However, none of the mutants exhibited growth defects in aerated cultures, in stark contrast to the cyuC mutant. This may be due to compensatory functions of other genes, a hypothesis which cannot be tested until a robust protocol for constructing markerless multiple gene deletion mutants in L. reuteri is developed. These results highlight the importance of the Cyu transporter in oxidative defence and provide a foundation for extending the research of this system in other bacteria.