Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Visual function and CFH/ARMS2 risk genotypes in macular dystrophy due to maternally inherited diabetes and deafness

Maternally inherited diabetes and deafness (MIDD) is an autosomal dominant inherited syndrome caused by the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) nucleotide mutation A3243G. It affects various organs including the eye with external ophthalmoparesis, ptosis, and bilateral macular pattern dystrophy.1, 2 The prevalence of retinal involvement in MIDD is high, with 50% to 85% of patients exhibiting some macular changes.1 Those changes, however, can vary between patients and within families dramatically based on the percentage of retinal mtDNA mutations, making it difficult to give predictions on an individual’s visual prognosis...

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Comparison of three different dressings for partial thickness burns in children : study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: In the paediatric population, pain and distress associated with burn injuries during wound care procedures remain a constant challenge. Although silver dressings are the gold standard for burn care in Australasia, very few high-level trials have been conducted that compare silver dressings to determine which will provide the best level of care clinically. Therefore, for paediatric patients in particular, identifying silver dressings that are associated with lower levels of pain and rapid wound re-epithelialisation is imperative. This study will determine whether there is a difference in time to re-epithelialisation and pain and distress experienced during wound care procedures among Acticoat, Acticoat combined with Mepitel and Mepilex Ag dressings for acute, paediatric partial thickness burns. METHODS/DESIGN: Children aged 0 to 15 years with an acute partial thickness (superficial partial to deep partial thickness inclusive) burn injury and a burn total body surface area of function, scar outcome and scar management requirements, cost effectiveness of each dressing and staff perspectives of the dressings. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will determine the effects of three commonly used silver and silicone burn dressing combinations on the rate of wound re-epithelialisation and pain experienced during dressing procedures in acute, paediatric partial thickness burn injuries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000105741.

Characterisation of a glutathione reductase gene and its genetic locus from pea (Pisum sativum L.)

A cDNA encoding the chloroplast/mitochondrial form of glutathione reductase (GR:EC 1,6,4,2) from pea (Pisum sativum L.) was used to map a single GR locus, named GORI. In two domesticated genotypes of pea (cv, Birte and JI 399) it is likely that the GORI locus contains a single gene. However, in a semi-domesticated land race of pea sequences were detected but closely related sets of GR gene sequences were in JI 281 represent either a second intact gene or a partial or pseudogene copy. A GR gene was cloned from ev. Birte, sequenced and its structure analysed. No features of the transcription or structure of the gene suggested a mechanism for generating any more than one form of . From these data plus previously published biochemical evidence was suggested a second, distinct gene encoding for the cytosolic form of GR should be present in peas. The GORI-encoded GR mRNA can be detected in all main organs of the plant and no alternative spliced species was present which could perhaps account for the generation of multiple isoforms of GR. The mismatch between the number of charge-separable isoforms in pea and the proposed number suggests that different GR isoforms arise by some form of post-transnational modification.

Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Gray matter deficits, mismatch negativity, and outcomes in schizophrenia

Reduced mismatch negativity (MMN) in response to auditory change is a well-established finding in schizophrenia and has been shown to be correlated with impaired daily functioning, rather than with hallmark signs and symptoms of the disorder. In this study, we investigated (1) whether the relationship between reduced MMN and impaired daily functioning is mediated by cortical volume loss in temporal and frontal brain regions in schizophrenia and (2) whether this relationship varies with the type of auditory deviant generating MMN. MMN in response to duration, frequency, and intensity deviants was recorded from 18 schizophrenia subjects and 18 pairwise age- and gender-matched healthy subjects. Patients’ levels of global functioning were rated on the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. High-resolution structural magnetic resonance scans were acquired to generate average cerebral cortex and temporal lobe models using cortical pattern matching. This technique allows accurate statistical comparison and averaging of cortical measures across subjects, despite wide variations in gyral patterns. MMN amplitude was reduced in schizophrenia patients and correlated with their impaired day-to-day function level. Only in patients, bilateral gray matter reduction in Heschl’s gyrus, as well as motor and executive regions of the frontal cortex, correlated with reduced MMN amplitude in response to frequency deviants, while reduced gray matter in right Heschl’s gyrus also correlated with reduced MMN to duration deviants. Our findings further support the importance of MMN reduction in schizophrenia by linking frontotemporal cerebral gray matter pathology to an automatically generated event-related potential index of daily functioning.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

GPU accelerated algorithms for computing matrix function vector products with applications to exponential integrators and fractional diffusion

The efficient computation of matrix function vector products has become an important area of research in recent times, driven in particular by two important applications: the numerical solution of fractional partial differential equations and the integration of large systems of ordinary differential equations. In this work we consider a problem that combines these two applications, in the form of a numerical solution algorithm for fractional reaction diffusion equations that after spatial discretisation, is advanced in time using the exponential Euler method. We focus on the efficient implementation of the algorithm on Graphics Processing Units (GPU), as we wish to make use of the increased computational power available with this hardware. We compute the matrix function vector products using the contour integration method in [N. Hale, N. Higham, and L. Trefethen. Computing Aα, log(A), and related matrix functions by contour integrals. SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 46(5):2505–2523, 2008]. Multiple levels of preconditioning are applied to reduce the GPU memory footprint and to further accelerate convergence. We also derive an error bound for the convergence of the contour integral method that allows us to pre-determine the appropriate number of quadrature points. Results are presented that demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for large two-dimensional problems, showing a speedup of more than an order of magnitude compared to a CPU-only implementation.

Genetics of brain fiber architecture and intellectual performance

The study is the first to analyze genetic and environmental factors that affect brain fiber architecture and its genetic linkage with cognitive function. We assessed white matter integrity voxelwise using diffusion tensor imaging at high magnetic field (4 Tesla), in 92 identical and fraternal twins. White matter integrity, quantified using fractional anisotropy (FA), was used to fit structural equation models (SEM) at each point in the brain, generating three-dimensional maps of heritability. We visualized the anatomical profile of correlations between white matter integrity and full-scale, verbal, and performance intelligence quotients (FIQ, VIQ, and PIQ). White matter integrity (FA) was under strong genetic control and was highly heritable in bilateral frontal (a 2 = 0.55, p = 0.04, left; a 2 = 0.74, p = 0.006, right), bilateral parietal (a 2 = 0.85, p < 0.001, left; a 2 = 0.84, p < 0.001, right), and left occipital (a 2 = 0.76, p = 0.003) lobes, and was correlated with FIQ and PIQ in the cingulum, optic radiations, superior fronto- occipital fasciculus, internal capsule, callosal isthmus, and the corona radiata (p = 0.04 for FIQ and p = 0.01 for PIQ, corrected for multiple comparisons). In a cross-trait mapping approach, common genetic factors mediated the correlation between IQ and white matter integrity, suggesting a common physiological mechanism for both, and common genetic determination. These genetic brain maps reveal heritable aspects of white matter integrity and should expedite the discovery of single-nucleotide polymorphisms affecting fiber connectivity and cognition.

A novel measure of fractional anisotropy based on the tensor distribution function

Fractional anisotropy (FA), a very widely used measure of fiber integrity based on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), is a problematic concept as it is influenced by several quantities including the number of dominant fiber directions within each voxel, each fiber's anisotropy, and partial volume effects from neighboring gray matter. With High-angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) and the tensor distribution function (TDF), one can reconstruct multiple underlying fibers per voxel and their individual anisotropy measures by representing the diffusion profile as a probabilistic mixture of tensors. We found that FA, when compared with TDF-derived anisotropy measures, correlates poorly with individual fiber anisotropy, and may sub-optimally detect disease processes that affect myelination. By contrast, mean diffusivity (MD) as defined in standard DTI appears to be more accurate. Overall, we argue that novel measures derived from the TDF approach may yield more sensitive and accurate information than DTI-derived measures.

A Bruch’s membrane substitute fabricated from silk fibroin supports the function of retinal pigment epithelial cells in vitro

Silk fibroin provides a promising biomaterial for ocular tissue reconstruction including the damaged outer blood-retinal barrier of patients afflicted with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the function of retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells in vitro, when grown on fibroin membranes manufactured to a similar thickness as Bruch’s membrane (3 μm). Confluent cultures of RPE cells (ARPE-19) were established on fibroin membranes and maintained under conditions designed to promote maturation over 4 months. Control cultures were grown on polyester cell culture well inserts (Transwell). Cultures established on either material developed a cobblestoned morphology with partial pigmentation within 12 weeks. Immunocytochemistry at 16 weeks revealed a similar distribution pattern between cultures for F-actin, ZO-1, ezrin, cytokeratin pair 8/18, RPE-65 and Na+/K+-ATPase. Electron microscopy revealed that cultures grown on fibroin displayed a rounder apical surface with a more dense distribution of microvilli. Both cultures avidly ingested fluorescent microspheres coated with vitronectin and bovine serum albumin (BSA), but not controls coated with BSA alone. VEGF and PEDF were detected in the conditioned medium collected from above and below both membrane types. Levels of PEDF were significantly higher than for VEGF on both membranes and a trend was observed towards larger amounts of PEDF in apical compartments. These findings demonstrate that RPE cell functions on fibroin membranes are equivalent to those observed for standard test materials (polyester membranes). As such, these studies support advancement to studies of RPE cell implantation on fibroin membranes in a preclinical model.

Partial epilepsy syndrome in a Gypsy family linked to 5q31.3-q32

PURPOSE The restricted genetic diversity and homogeneous molecular basis of Mendelian disorders in isolated founder populations have rarely been explored in epilepsy research. Our long-term goal is to explore the genetic basis of epilepsies in one such population, the Gypsies. The aim of this report is the clinical and genetic characterization of a Gypsy family with a partial epilepsy syndrome. METHODS Clinical information was collected using semistructured interviews with affected subjects and informants. At least one interictal electroencephalography (EEG) recording was performed for each patient and previous data obtained from records. Neuroimaging included structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Linkage and haplotype analysis was performed using the Illumina IVb Linkage Panel, supplemented with highly informative microsatellites in linked regions and Affymetrix SNP 5.0 array data. RESULTS We observed an early-onset partial epilepsy syndrome with seizure semiology strongly suggestive of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), with mild intellectual deficit co-occurring in a large proportion of the patients. Psychiatric morbidity was common in the extended pedigree but did not cosegregate with epilepsy. Linkage analysis definitively excluded previously reported loci, and identified a novel locus on 5q31.3-q32 with an logarithm of the odds (LOD) score of 3 corresponding to the expected maximum in this family. DISCUSSION The syndrome can be classified as familial temporal lobe epilepsy (FTLE) or possibly a new syndrome with mild intellectual deficit. The linked 5q region does not contain any ion channel-encoding genes and is thus likely to contribute new knowledge about epilepsy pathogenesis. Identification of the mutation in this family and in additional patients will define the full phenotypic spectrum.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.