Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Grade A Taipei junior high school principals’ self-reported leadership practices

The principal’s leadership and curriculum development are considered the core elements for creating a high performing junior high school. In Taiwan, mathematics curriculum reform has been an ongoing topic since 1994. The pedagogy, classroom interactions, and the underlying philosophy of mathematics education have varied with different versions of guidelines. These changes inevitably increase the requirement for principals’ leadership in order to effectively implement the curriculum reform. Principals’ leadership is essential to the success of the implementation in their school. This study aimed to explore and identify the leadership of junior high school principals whose schools had been judged by the Taipei City Government as Grade A junior high schools. Principals’ implementations of the reformed mathematics curriculum were used as examples to generate insights of their leadership. This study drew upon a multiple-case study approach. Data were collected from interviews, observations, and documentations. Bass and Avolio’s (1997) full range leadership theory provided a structure for gaining insight into these principals’ leadership practices. Five Grade A Taipei junior high school principals participated and shared their leadership concepts and experiences. Findings revealed that the leadership preferences of the five principles varied considerably. Management by exception-active, contingent reward, individualised consideration, and idealised influence were Grade A Taipei junior high school principals’ preferred leadership practices. In addition, principals’ leadership strategies associated with these practices were identified. These principals had adopted a range of leadership strategies according to the staff and school needs. Results of this study have implications for both Taiwanese principals and education departments. Principals can enhance their leadership by gaining more understanding about the Grade A principals’ leadership practices and strategies. Taiwanese education departments can improve school leadership training programs by focusing on these practices and strategies, which may also lead to more effective strategies for implementing national curriculum reform.

Critical literacy finds a "Place": Writing and social action in a low-income Australian grade 2/3 classroom

In a study of socioeconomically disadvantaged children's acquisition of school literacies, a university research team investigated how a group of teachers negotiated critical literacies and explored notions of social power with elementary children in a suburban school located in an area of high poverty. Here we focus on a grade 2/3 classroom where the teacher and children became involved in a local urban renewal project and on how in the process the children wrote about place and power. Using the students' concerns about their neighborhood, the teacher engaged her class in a critical literacy project that not only involved a complex set of literate practices but also taught the children about power and the possibilities for local civic action. In particular, we discuss examples of children's drawing and writing about their neighborhoods and their lives. We explore how children's writing and drawing might be key elements in developing "critical literacies" in elementary school settings. We consider how such classroom writing can be a mediator of emotions, intellectual and academic learning, social practice, and political activism.

Data modelling with first-grade students

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling. Results are reported from the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study in which three classes of first-grade children (6-year-olds) and their teachers engaged in data modelling activities. The theme of Looking after our Environment, part of the children’s science curriculum, provided the task context. The goals for the two activities addressed here included engaging children in core components of data modelling, namely, selecting attributes, structuring and representing data, identifying variation in data, and making predictions from given data. Results include the various ways in which children represented and re represented collected data, including attribute selection, and the metarepresentational competence they displayed in doing so. The “data lenses” through which the children dealt with informal inference (variation and prediction) are also reported.

Do perceptions mirror reality? Student perceptions of learning versus grade outcomes

This research addresses whether educators should consider measuring if students have learned what was intended, as recommended by education researchers. Students in an Introductory Marketing subject were asked to complete a voluntary survey rating their own progress on the intended learning outcomes for the course. One hundred and one surveys were completed by students in the second-last teaching week of the semester. Student identification numbers were used to link student perceptions with their grade outcomes. Regression analysis was used to ascertain whether student perceptions of their progress on the intended learning outcomes for the course could be used to predict their grades. While the results were significant, student perceptions of their progress on learning outcomes were a poor predictor of grade outcomes. The results of this study suggest that student perceptions may not mirror the reality. These results are somewhat surprising and future research examining the degree of change in the learning outcomes perceived by students is warranted. This will further contribute to decisions surrounding whether educators should measure if students have learned what was intended.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Effects of lime content and amelioration period in double lime application on the strength of lime treated expansive sub-grade soils

The addition of lime into soils has been widely used to stabilize the expansive sub-grade soils when the road pavements are constructed on them. It is common practice to apply a half of the required lime amount and allow a certain time period for lime to react with soils (Amelioration period) before applying the rest of lime and compacting the sub-grade. The optimum amelioration period is essential to minimize the construction delay and to gain the higher strength. In this study, two different expansive soils procured from two different locations in the state of Queensland in Australia were first mixed with different lime contents. A soil mixed with a particular lime content was compacted at different amelioration periods (e.g.: 0, 6, 12, 18, 24 hrs) to obtain soil samples to measure the Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS). The results suggested that for a given amelioration period, UCS increased with the increase in lime content. The optimum amelioration period could be within 14~17 hours for most of the lime contents in tested soils. This could suggest that the current 24-48 hour amelioration period specified by the Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads could be reduced.

Reduced expression of retinoblastoma gene product (pRB) and high expression of p53 are associated with poor prognosis in ovarian cancer

Paraffin sections (n = 168, 27 benign, 16 low malignant potential [LMP] and 125 malignant tumours) from epithelial ovarian tumours were evaluated immunohistochemically for expression of retinoblastoma gene product (pRB) and p53 protein, and the relationship among pRB, p53 and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2 (CDKN2) gene product p16INK4A (p16) was analysed, following our previous study of p16. Forty-one percent of the benign, 50% of the LMP and most (71%) of the malignant tumours showed high pRB expression. High expression of pRB (>50% pRB-positive cells) significantly correlated with non-mucinous histological subtypes. Reduced pRB expression, substage and residual disease were significant predictors for poor prognosis in stage I patients. All the benign and most of the LMP (81%) tumours were in either the p53-negative or low p53-positive category, but nearly half of the malignant tumours had high p53 expression. High p53 accumulation was found in non-mucinous, high grade and late stage tumours. For well-differentiated carcinomas, high p53 expression was a predictor of poor prognosis. However, even though high p53 expression was not associated with histological subtype, stage or the presence of residual disease, high p53 expression was not an independent predictor when all clinical parameters were combined. For all ovarian cancers, a close correlation was found between high p53 and high p16 expression. The relationship between the expression of pRB and p16 depended on tumour stage. In stage I tumours, high pRB was associated with low p16 reactivity. On the other hand, most advanced tumours showed both high pRB and high p16 reactivity. Int. J. Cancer 74:407–415, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Engineering design processes in seventh-grade classrooms: bridging the engineering education gap

This paper reports on some findings from the first year of a three-year longitudinal study, in which seventh to ninth-graders were introduced to engineering education. Specifically, the paper addresses students’ responses to an initial design activity involving bridge construction, which was implemented at the end of seventh grade. This paper also addresses how students created their bridge designs and applied these in their bridge constructions; their reflections on their designs; their reflections on why the bridge failed to support increased weights during the testing process; and their suggestions on ways in which they would improve their bridge designs. The present findings include identification of six, increasingly sophisticated levels of illustrated bridge designs, with designs improving between the classroom and homework activities of two focus groups of students. Students’ responses to the classroom activity revealed a number of iterative design processes, where the problem goals, including constraints, served as monitoring factors for students’ generation of ideas, design thinking and construction of an effective bridge.

Histological and morphometric lesions in the pre-clinical, developmental phase of insulin-induced laminitis in Standardbred horses

Lamellar pathology in experimentally-induced equine laminitis associated with euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemia is substantial by the acute, clinical phase (∼48 h post-induction). However, lamellar pathology of the developmental, pre-clinical phase requires evaluation. The aim of this study was to analyse lamellar lesions both qualitatively and quantitatively, 6, 12 and 24 h after the commencement of hyperinsulinaemia. Histological and histomorphometrical analyses of lamellar pathology at each time-point included assessment of lamellar length and width, epidermal cell proliferation and death, basement membrane (BM) pathology and leucocyte infiltration. Archived lamellar tissue from control horses and those with acute, insulin-induced laminitis (48 h) was also assessed for cellular proliferative activity by counting the number of cells showing positive nuclear immuno labelling for TPX2. Decreased secondary epidermal lamellar (SEL) width and increased histomorphological evidence of SEL epidermal basal (and supra-basal) cell death occurred early in disease progression (6 h). Increased cellular proliferation in SELs, infiltration of the dermis with small numbers of leucocytes and BM damage occurred later (24 and 48 h). Some lesions, such as narrowing of the SELs, were progressive over this time period (6–48 h). Cellular pathology preceded leucocyte infiltration and BM pathology, indicating that the latter changes may be secondary or downstream events in hyperinsulinaemic laminitis.