High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year : important information for heat-warning systems

We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a “main effect” due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an “added effect” due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Effect of moisture and temperature distribution on dried food microstructure and porosity

Dehydration of food materials requires water removal from it. This removal of moisture prevents the growth and reproduction of microorganisms that cause decay and minimizes many of the moisture-driven deterioration reactions (Brennan, 1994). However, during food drying, many other changes occur simultaneously resulting in a modified overall quality (Kompany et al., 1993). Among the physical attributes of dried food material porosity and microstructure are the important ones that can dominant other quality of dried foods (Aguilera et al., 2000). In addition, this two concerned quality attributes affected by process conditions, material components and raw structure of food stuff. In this work, temperature moisture distribution within food materials during microwave drying will be taken into consideration to observe its participation on the microstructure and porosity of the finished product. Apple is the selective materials for this work. Generally, most of the food materials are found in non-uniformed moisture contained condition. To develop non uniform temperature distribution, food materials have been dried in a microwave oven with different power levels (Chua et al., 2000). First of all, temperature and moisture model is simulated by COMSOL Multiphysics. Later on, digital imaging camera and Image Pro Premier software have been deployed to observation moisture distribution and thermal imaging camera for temperature distribution. Finally, Microstructure and porosity of the food materials are obtained from scanning electron microscope and porosity measuring devices respectively . Moisture distribution and temperature during drying influence the microstructure and porosity significantly. Specially, High temperature and moisture contained regions show less porosity and more rupture. These findings support other literatures of Halder et al. (2011) and Rahman et al (1990). On the other hand, low temperature and moisture regions depict uniform microstructure and high porosity. This work therefore assists in better understanding of the role of moisture and temperature distribution to a prediction of micro structure and porosity of dried food materials.

Evolution of epitaxial graphene layers on 3C SiC/Si (111) as a function of annealing temperature in UHV

The growth of graphene on SiC/Si substrates is an appealing alternative to the growth on bulk SiC for cost reduction and to better integrate the material with Si based electronic devices. In this paper, we present a complete in-situ study of the growth of epitaxial graphene on 3C SiC (111)/Si (111) substrates via high temperature annealing (ranging from 1125˚C to 1375˚C) in ultra high vacuum (UHV). The quality and number of graphene layers have been thoroughly investigated by using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), while the surface characterization have been studied by scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM). Ex-situ Raman spectroscopy measurements confirm our findings, which demonstrate the exponential dependence of the number of graphene layer from the annealing temperature.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

New reaction paths for metal diborides at low temperature and pressure

Attention has recently focussed on MgB2 superconductors (Tc~39K) which can be formed into wires with high material density and viable critical current densities (Jc)1. However, broader utilisation of this diboride and many others is likely to occur when facile synthesis for bulk applications is developed. To date, common synthesis methods include high temperature sintering of mixed elemental powders2, combustion synthesis3, mechano-chemical mixing with high temperature sintering4 and high pressure (~GPa region) with high temperature. In this work, we report on a lower temperature, moderate (<4MPa) pressure method to synthesise metal diborides.

The origin of cyclical high- and low-Cr basalts with continental crust trace element signatures in the Kalkarindji Large Igneous Province

The 510 million year old Kalkarindji Large Igneous Province correlates in time with the first major extinction event after the Cambrian explosion of life. Large igneous provinces correlate with all major mass extinction events in the last 500 million years. The genetic link between large igneous provinces and mass extinction remains unclear. My work is a contribution towards understanding magmatic processes involved in the generation of Large Igneous Provinces. I concentrate on the origin of variation in Cr in magmas and have developed a model in which high temperature melts intrude into and assimilate large amounts of upper continental crust.

The mechanical strength of phosphates under friction-induced cross-linking

Purpose: In the present study, we consider mechanical properties of phosphate glasses under high temperatureinduced and under friction-induced cross-linking, which enhance the modulus of elasticity. Design/methodology/approach: Two nanomechanical properties are evaluated, the first parameter is the modulus of elasticity (E) (or Young's modulus) and the second parameter is the hardness (H). Zinc meta-, pyro - and orthophosphates were recognized as amorphous-colloidal nanoparticles were synthesized under laboratory conditions and showed antiwear properties in engine oil. Findings: Young's modulus of the phosphate glasses formed under high temperature was in the 60-89 GPa range. For phosphate tribofilm formed under friction hardness and the Young's modulus were in the range of 2-10 GPa and 40-215 GPa, respectively. The degree of cross-linking during friction is provided by internal pressure of about 600 MPa and temperature close to 1000°C enhancing mechanical properties by factor of 3 (see Fig 1). Research limitations/implications: The addition of iron or aluminum ions to phosphate glasses under high temperature - and friction-induced amorphization of zinc metaphosphate and pyrophosphate tends to provide more cross-linking and mechanically stronger structures. Iron and aluminum (FeO4 or AlO4 units), incorporated into phosphate structure as network formers, contribute to the anion network bonding by converting the P=O bonds into bridging oxygen. Future work should consider on development of new of materials prepared by solgel processes, eg., zinc (II)-silicic acid. Originality/value: This paper analyses the friction pressure-induced and temperature–induced the two factors lead phosphate tribofilm glasses to chemically advanced glass structures, which may enhance the wear inhibition. Adding the coordinating ions alters the pressure at which cross-linking occurs and increases the antiwear properties of the surface material significantly.

Investigation of inclusions trapped inside Libyan Desert glass by Raman microscopy

Several specimens of Libyan Desert Glass (LDG), an enigmatic natural glass from Egypt, were subjected to investigation by micro-Raman spectroscopy. The spectra of inclusions inside the LDG samples were successfully measured through the layers of glass and the mineral species were identified on this basis. The presence of cristobalite as typical for high-temperature melt products was confirmed, together with co-existing quartz. TiO2 was determined in two polymorphic species, rutile and anatase. Micro-Raman spectroscopy proved also the presence of minerals unusual for high-temperature glasses such as anhydrite and aragonite.

Atomistic numerical investigation of single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects

Based on the embedded atom method (EAM), a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is performed to study the single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects through tension. The tension simulations for nanowire without defect are first carried out under different temperatures, strain rates and time steps and then surface defect effects for nanowire are investigated. The stress-strain curves obtained by the MD simulations of various strain rates show a rate below 1 x 10(9) s-1 will exert less effect on the yield strength and yield point, and the Young's modulus is independent of strain rate. a time step below 5 fs is recommend for the atomic model during the MD simulation. It is observed that high temperature leads to low Young's modulus, as well as the yield strength. The surface defects on nanowires are systematically studied in considering different defect orientations. It is found that the surface defect serves as a dislocation source, and the yield strength shows 34.20% decresse with 45 degree surface defect. Both yield strength and yield point are significantly influenced by the surface defects, except the Young's modulus.

Three-dimensional printing of hierarchical and tough mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability

New-generation biomaterials for bone regenerations should be highly bioactive, resorbable and mechanically strong. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), as a novel bioactive material, has been used for the study of bone regeneration due to its excellent bioactivity, degradation and drug-delivery ability; however, how to construct a 3D MBG scaffold (including other bioactive inorganic scaffolds) for bone regeneration still maintains a significant challenge due to its/their inherit brittleness and low strength. In this brief communication, we reported a new facile method to prepare hierarchical and multifunctional MBG scaffolds with controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability for bone regeneration application by a modified 3D-printing technique using polyvinylalcohol (PVA), as a binder. The method provides a new way to solve the commonly existing issues for inorganic scaffold materials, for example, uncontrollable pore architecture, low strength, high brittleness and the requirement for the second sintering at high temperature. The obtained 3D-printing MBG scaffolds possess a high mechanical strength which is about 200 times for that of traditional polyurethane foam template-resulted MBG scaffolds. They have highly controllable pore architecture, excellent apatite-mineralization ability and sustained drug-delivery property. Our study indicates that the 3D-printed MBG scaffolds may be an excellent candidate for bone regeneration.

The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

Using fiber Bragg grating in geothermal monitoring

Earthquake precursor monitoring is the foundation of earthquake prediction and geothermal monitoring is one of the basic methods of earthquake precursor monitoring. High temperature well contains more information and therefore its monitoring is more important. However, electric sensors are hard to meet the monitoring requirements of high sensitivity and long lifetime. For a better observation of the earthquake precursor, a high sensitive fiber Bragg grating (FBG) temperature sensor is designed to monitoring a well at 87.5±1◦C. The performance of the FBG sensor demonstrates that it’s quite possible that applying FBG to high-sensitivity temperature-monitoring fields, such as geothermal monitoring. As far as we known, it is the first time that trying a high sensitive FBG temperature sensor in a practical application, let alone in the field of geothermal monitoring.

Preparation, characterization, and in vitro bioactivity of nagelschmidtite bioceramics

The aim of this study is to prepare Ca, P and Si-containing ternary oxide nagelschmidtite (NAGEL, Ca7Si2P2O16) bioceramics and explore their in vitro bioactivity for potential bone tissue regeneration. We prepared dense NAGEL ceramics through high-temperature sintering of NAGEL ceramic powders. The apatite-mineralization ability, dissolution rate, and human osteoblast response (including cytotoxicity analysis, attachment, morphology, proliferation, and bone-related gene expression) to NAGEL ceramics have been systematically studied by comparing with conventional β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) ceramics. The results showed that NAGEL ceramics possessed more obvious apatite mineralization and dissolution (degradation) and stimulated bone-related gene expression (OCN and OPN) of osteoblasts than β-TCP ceramics. NAGEL ceramics also showed no significant cytotoxicity. NAGEL ceramics supported osteoblast attachment, proliferation, and osteogenic gene expression, with a comparable cell proliferation activity with β-TCP ceramics. These results indicate that novel NAGEL bioceramics with the specific composition of Ca7Si2P2O16, are a promising biomaterial for bone tissue regeneration application.