Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Application of K-tree to document clustering

Digital collections are growing exponentially in size as the information age takes a firm grip on all aspects of society. As a result Information Retrieval (IR) has become an increasingly important area of research. It promises to provide new and more effective ways for users to find information relevant to their search intentions. Document clustering is one of the many tools in the IR toolbox and is far from being perfected. It groups documents that share common features. This grouping allows a user to quickly identify relevant information. If these groups are misleading then valuable information can accidentally be ignored. There- fore, the study and analysis of the quality of document clustering is important. With more and more digital information available, the performance of these algorithms is also of interest. An algorithm with a time complexity of O(n2) can quickly become impractical when clustering a corpus containing millions of documents. Therefore, the investigation of algorithms and data structures to perform clustering in an efficient manner is vital to its success as an IR tool. Document classification is another tool frequently used in the IR field. It predicts categories of new documents based on an existing database of (doc- ument, category) pairs. Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been found to be effective when classifying text documents. As the algorithms for classifica- tion are both efficient and of high quality, the largest gains can be made from improvements to representation. Document representations are vital for both clustering and classification. Representations exploit the content and structure of documents. Dimensionality reduction can improve the effectiveness of existing representations in terms of quality and run-time performance. Research into these areas is another way to improve the efficiency and quality of clustering and classification results. Evaluating document clustering is a difficult task. Intrinsic measures of quality such as distortion only indicate how well an algorithm minimised a sim- ilarity function in a particular vector space. Intrinsic comparisons are inherently limited by the given representation and are not comparable between different representations. Extrinsic measures of quality compare a clustering solution to a “ground truth” solution. This allows comparison between different approaches. As the “ground truth” is created by humans it can suffer from the fact that not every human interprets a topic in the same manner. Whether a document belongs to a particular topic or not can be subjective.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction

Traffic control at road junctions is one of the major concerns in most metropolitan cities. Controllers of various approaches are available and the required control action is the effective green-time assigned to each traffic stream within a traffic-light cycle. The application of fuzzy logic provides the controller with the capability to handle uncertain natures of the system, such as drivers’ behaviour and random arrivals of vehicles. When turning traffic is allowed at the junction, the number of phases in the traffic-light cycle increases. The additional input variables inevitably complicate the controller and hence slow down the decision-making process, which is critical in this real-time control problem. In this paper, a hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is proposed to tackle this traffic control problem at a 2-way road junction with turning traffic. The two levels of fuzzy logic controllers devise the minimum effective green-time and fine-tune it respectively at each phase of a traffic-light cycle. The complexity of the controller at each level is reduced with smaller rule-set. The performance of this hierarchical controller is examined by comparison with a fixed-time controller under various traffic conditions. Substantial delay reduction has been achieved as a result and the performance and limitation of the controller will be discussed.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction using genetic algorithms

Traffic control at a road junction by a complex fuzzy logic controller is investigated. The increase in the complexity of junction means more number of input variables must be taken into account, which will increase the number of fuzzy rules in the system. A hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is introduced to reduce the number of rules. Besides, the increase in the complexity of the controller makes formulation of the fuzzy rules difficult. A genetic algorithm based off-line leaning algorithm is employed to generate the fuzzy rules. The learning algorithm uses constant flow-rates as training sets. The system is tested by both constant and time-varying flow-rates. Simulation results show that the proposed controller produces lower average delay than a fixed-time controller does under various traffic conditions.

XML documents clustering using tensor space model - A preliminary study

A hierarchical structure is used to represent the content of the semi-structured documents such as XML and XHTML. The traditional Vector Space Model (VSM) is not sufficient to represent both the structure and the content of such web documents. Hence in this paper, we introduce a novel method of representing the XML documents in Tensor Space Model (TSM) and then utilize it for clustering. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed method is scalable for a real-life dataset as well as the factorized matrices produced from the proposed method helps to improve the quality of clusters due to the enriched document representation with both the structure and the content information.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Three-dimensional printing of hierarchical and tough mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability

New-generation biomaterials for bone regenerations should be highly bioactive, resorbable and mechanically strong. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), as a novel bioactive material, has been used for the study of bone regeneration due to its excellent bioactivity, degradation and drug-delivery ability; however, how to construct a 3D MBG scaffold (including other bioactive inorganic scaffolds) for bone regeneration still maintains a significant challenge due to its/their inherit brittleness and low strength. In this brief communication, we reported a new facile method to prepare hierarchical and multifunctional MBG scaffolds with controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability for bone regeneration application by a modified 3D-printing technique using polyvinylalcohol (PVA), as a binder. The method provides a new way to solve the commonly existing issues for inorganic scaffold materials, for example, uncontrollable pore architecture, low strength, high brittleness and the requirement for the second sintering at high temperature. The obtained 3D-printing MBG scaffolds possess a high mechanical strength which is about 200 times for that of traditional polyurethane foam template-resulted MBG scaffolds. They have highly controllable pore architecture, excellent apatite-mineralization ability and sustained drug-delivery property. Our study indicates that the 3D-printed MBG scaffolds may be an excellent candidate for bone regeneration.

A hierarchical security assessment model for object-oriented programs

We present a hierarchical model for assessing an object-oriented program's security. Security is quantified using structural properties of the program code to identify the ways in which `classified' data values may be transferred between objects. The model begins with a set of low-level security metrics based on traditional design characteristics of object-oriented classes, such as data encapsulation, cohesion and coupling. These metrics are then used to characterise higher-level properties concerning the overall readability and writability of classified data throughout the program. In turn, these metrics are then mapped to well-known security design principles such as `assigning the least privilege' and `reducing the size of the attack surface'. Finally, the entire program's security is summarised as a single security index value. These metrics allow different versions of the same program, or different programs intended to perform the same task, to be compared for their relative security at a number of different abstraction levels. The model is validated via an experiment involving five open source Java programs, using a static analysis tool we have developed to automatically extract the security metrics from compiled Java bytecode.

Joinder to a later unsigned document?

It is well known that a statutory requirement of formality is associated with contracts concerning land. In this regard, s 59 of the Property Law Act 1974 (Qld) provides: No action may be brought upon any contract for the sale or other disposition of land or any interest in land unless the contract upon which such action is brought, or some memorandum or note of the contract, is in writing, and signed by the party to be charged, or by some person by the party lawfully authorised. In addition to the possibility of a formal contract, the statutory wording clearly contemplates reliance on an informal note or memorandum. To constitute a sufficient note or memorandum for the purposes of the statute, the signed note or memorandum must contain details of the parties to the contract, an adequate description of the property, the price and any other essential terms. It is also accepted that the doctrine of joinder may be invoked in circumstances where the document signed by the party to be charged contains an express or implied reference to any other document. In this way, a sufficient note or memorandum may be constituted by the joinder of a number of documents.

Multifunctional magnetic mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a hierarchical pore structure

Hyperthermia and local drug delivery have been proposed the potential therapeutic approaches for bone defects resulting from malignant bone tumors. Development of bioactive materials with magnetic and drug-delivery properties may potentially meet this target. The aim of this study is to develop a multifunctional mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG) scaffold system for both hyperthermia and local-drug delivery application potentially. For this aim, Iron (Fe) containing MBG (Fe-MBG) scaffolds with hierarchically large pores (300-500 µm) and fingerprint-like mesopores (4.5 nm) have been successfully prepared. The effect of Fe on the mesopore structure, physiochemical, magnetism, drug delivery and biological properties of MBG scaffolds has been systematically investigated. The results showed that the morphology of the mesopore varied from straight channels to curved fingerprint-like channels after incorporated parts of Fe into MBG scaffolds. The magnetism magnitude of MBG scaffolds can be tailored by controlling Fe contents. Furthermore, the incorporating of Fe into mesoporous MBG glass scaffolds enhanced the mitochondrial activity and bone-relative gene (ALP and OCN) expression of human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) on the scaffolds. The obtained Fe-MBG scaffolds also possessed high specific surface areas and sustained drug delivery. Therefore, Fe-MBG scaffolds are magnetic, degradable and bioactive. The multifunction of Fe-MBG scaffolds indicates that there is a great potential for Fe-MBG scaffolds to be used for the therapy and regeneration of large-bone defects caused by malignant bone tumors through the combination of hyperthermia, local drug delivery and their osteoconductivity.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

TOPSIG : Topology Preserving Document Signatures

Performance comparisons between File Signatures and Inverted Files for text retrieval have previously shown several significant shortcomings of file signatures relative to inverted files. The inverted file approach underpins most state-of-the-art search engine algorithms, such as Language and Probabilistic models. It has been widely accepted that traditional file signatures are inferior alternatives to inverted files. This paper describes TopSig, a new approach to the construction of file signatures. Many advances in semantic hashing and dimensionality reduction have been made in recent times, but these were not so far linked to general purpose, signature file based, search engines. This paper introduces a different signature file approach that builds upon and extends these recent advances. We are able to demonstrate significant improvements in the performance of signature file based indexing and retrieval, performance that is comparable to that of state of the art inverted file based systems, including Language models and BM25. These findings suggest that file signatures offer a viable alternative to inverted files in suitable settings and positions the file signatures model in the class of Vector Space retrieval models.