58 resultados para Geostatistical inversion


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The structures of bis(guanidinium)rac-trans-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H10O4- (I), guanidinium 3-carboxybenzoate monohydrate CH6N3+ C8H5O4- . H2O (II) and bis(guanidinium) benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate trihydrate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H4O4^2- . 3H2O (III) have been determined and the hydrogen bonding in each examined. All three compounds form three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded framework structures. In anhydrous (I), both guanidinium cations give classic cyclic R2/2(8) N--H...O,O'(carboxyl) and asymmetric cyclic R1/2(6) hydrogen-bonding interactions while one cation gives an unusual enlarged cyclic interaction with O acceptors of separate ortho-related carboxyl groups [graph set R2/2(11)]. Cations and anions also associate across inversion centres giving cyclic R2/4(8) motifs. In the 1:1 guanidinium salt (II), the cation gives two separate cyclic R1/2(6) interactions, one with a carboxyl O-acceptor, the other with the water molecule of solvation. The structure is unusual in that both carboxyl groups give short inter-anion O...H...O contacts, one across a crystallographic inversion centre [2.483(2)\%A], the other about a two-fold axis of rotation [2.462(2)\%A] with a half-occupancy hydrogen delocalized on the symmetry element in each. The water molecule links the cation--anion ribbon structures into a three-dimensional framework. In (III), the repeating molecular unit comprises a benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate dianion which lies across a crystallographic inversion centre, two guanidinium cations and two water molecules of solvation (each set related by two-fold rotational symmetry), and a single water molecule which lies on a two-fold axis. Each guanidinium cation gives three types of cyclic interactions with the dianions: one R^1^~2~(6), the others R2/3(8) and R3/3(10) (both of these involving the water molecules), giving a three-dimensional structure through bridges down the b cell direction. The water molecule at the general site also forms an unusual cyclic R2/2(4) homodimeric association across an inversion centre [O--H...O, 2.875(2)\%A]. The work described here provides further examples of the common cyclic guanidinium cation...carboxylate anion hydrogen-bonding associations as well as featuring other less common cyclic motifs.

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In the title isonipecotamide salt 2C6H13N2O+.C12H8O6S22-,the asymmetric unit comprises one biphenyl-4,4'-disulfonate dianion which lies across a crystallographic inversion centre and another in a general position [dihedral angle between the two phenyl rings is 37.1(1)deg], together with three isonipecotamide cations. Two of these cations give a cyclic homomeric amide-amide dimer interaction [graph set R2/2(8)],the other giving a similar dimeric interaction but across an inversion centre, both dimers then forming lateral cyclic R2/4(8) pyrimidinium N-H...O interactions. These units are linked longitudinally to the sulfonate groups of the dianions through piperidinium N-H...O hydrogen bonds, giving a three-dimensional framework structure.

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In the structure of polymeric title compound, {[Co2(C7H2N2O7)2(H2O)6] . 2H2O}n from the reaction of 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid with cobalt(II) acetate, both slightly distorted octahedral Co(II) centres have crystallographic inversion symmetry. The coordination sphere about one Co centre comprises four O donors from two bidentate chelate O(phenolate), O(carboxyl) and bridging dianionic ligands and two water molecules [Co-O range, 2.0249(11)-2.1386(14)A] while that about the second Co centre has four water molecules and two bridging carboxyl O donor atoms [Co-O range, 2.0690(14)-2.1364(11)A]. The coordinated water molecules as well as the water molecules of solvation give water-water and water-carboxyl hydrogen-bonding interactions in the three-dimensional framework structure.

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The structures of two polymorphs of the anhydrous cocrystal adduct of bis(quinolinium-2-carboxylate) DL-malic acid, one triclinic the other monoclinic and disordered, have been determined at 200 K. Crystals of the triclinic polymorph 1 have space group P-1, with Z = 1 in a cell with dimensions a = 4.4854(4), b = 9.8914(7), c = 12.4670(8)Å, α = 79.671(5), β = 83.094(6), γ = 88.745(6)deg. Crystals of the monoclinic polymorph 2 have space group P21/c, with Z = 2 in a cell with dimensions a = 13.3640(4), b = 4.4237(12), c = 18.4182(5)Å, β = 100.782(3)deg. Both structures comprise centrosymmetric cyclic hydrogen-bonded quinolinic acid zwitterion dimers [graph set R2/2(10)] and 50% disordered malic acid molecules which lie across crystallographic inversion centres. However, the oxygen atoms of the malic acid carboxylic groups in 2 are 50% rotationally disordered whereas in 1 these are ordered. There are similar primary malic acid carboxyl O-H...quinaldic acid hydrogen-bonding chain interactions in each polymorph, extended into two-dimensional structures but in l this involves centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-head malic acid hydroxyl-carboxyl O-H...O interactions [graph set R2/2(10)] whereas in 2 the links are through single hydroxy-carboxyl hydrogen bonds.

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Bean golden mosaic geminivirus (BGMV) has a bipartite genome composed of two circular ssDNA components (DNA-A and DNA-B) and is transmitted by the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci. DNA-A encodes the viral replication proteins and the coat protein. To determine the role of BGMV coat protein systemic infection and whitefly transmission, two deletions and a restriction fragment inversion were introduced into the BGMV coat protein gene. All three coat protein mutants produced systemic infections when coinoculated with DNA-B onto Phaseolus vulgaris using electric discharge particle acceleration "particle gun." However, they were not sap transmissible and coat protein was not detected in mutant-infected plants. In addition, none of the mutants were transmitted by whiteflies. With all three mutants, ssDNA accumulation of DNA-A and DNA-B was reduced 25- to 50-fold and 3- to 10-fold, respectively, as compared to that of wild-type DNA. No effect on dsDNA-A accumulation was detected and there was 2- to 5-fold increase in dsDNA-B accumulation. Recombinants between the mutated DNA-A and DNA-B forms were identified when the inoculated coat protein mutant was linearized in the common region.

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Laughter is a fundamental human phenomenon. Yet there is little educational research on the potential functions of laughter on the enacted (lived) curriculum. In this study, we identify the functions of laughter in a beginning science teacher’s classroom throughout her first year of teaching. Our study shows that laughter is more than a gratuitous phenomenon. It is the result of a collective interactive achievement of the classroom participants that offsets the seriousness of science as a discipline. Laughter, whereas it challenges the seriousness of science, also includes the dialectical inversion of the challenge: it simultaneously reinforces the idea of science as serious business.

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In the structure of the title compound, [Mg(H2O)6]2+ 2(C7H5O6S-). 2(H2O), the octahedral complex cations lie on crystallographic inversion centres and are hydrogen-bonded through the coordinated waters to the substituted benzenesulfonate monoanions and the water molecules of solvation, and together with a carboxylic acid O-H...O(sulfonate) association, give a three-dimensional structure.

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Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.

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The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

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Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

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In the structure of the title compound, [Mg(H2O)2(C8H6FO3)2]n(0.4H2O)n, slightly distorted octahedral MgO6 complex units have crystallographic inversion symmetry, the coordination polyhedron comprising two trans-related water molecules and four carboxyl O-atom donors, two of which are bridging. Within the two-dimensional complex polymer which is parallel to (100), the coordinating water molecules form intermolecular O---H...O hydrogen-bonds with carboxylate and phenoxy O-atom acceptors, as well as with the partial-occupancy solvent water molecules.

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In this paper we investigate the distribution of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables. Considering the Mellin-Barnes inversion formula and using the saddle point approach we obtain an upper bound for the product distribution. The accuracy of this tail-approximation increases as the number of random variables in the product increase.

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The presence of insect pests in grain storages throughout the supply chain is a significant problem for farmers, grain handlers, and distributors world-wide. Insect monitoring and sampling programmes are used in the stored grains industry for the detection and estimation of pest populations. At the low pest densities dictated by economic and commercial requirements, the accuracy of both detection and abundance estimates can be influenced by variations in the spatial structure of pest populations over short distances. Geostatistical analysis of Rhyzopertha dominica populations in 2 and 3 dimensions showed that insect numbers were positively correlated over short (0.5 cm) distances, and negatively correlated over longer (.10 cm) distances. At 35 C, insects were located significantly further from the grain surface than at 25 and 30 C. Dispersion metrics showed statistically significant aggregation in all cases. The observed heterogeneous spatial distribution of R. dominica may also be influenced by factors such as the site of initial infestation and disturbance during handling. To account for these additional factors, I significantly extended a simulation model that incorporates both pest growth and movement through a typical stored-grain supply chain. By incorporating the effects of abundance, initial infestation site, grain handling, and treatment on pest spatial distribution, I developed a supply chain model incorporating estimates of pest spatial distribution. This was used to examine several scenarios representative of grain movement through a supply chain, and determine the influence of infestation location and grain disturbance on the sampling intensity required to detect pest infestations at various infestation rates. This study has investigated the effects of temperature, infestation point, and grain handling on the spatial distribution and detection of R. dominica. The proportion of grain infested was found to be dependent upon abundance, initial pest location, and grain handling. Simulation modelling indicated that accounting for these factors when developing sampling strategies for stored grain has the potential to significantly reduce sampling costs while simultaneously improving detection rate, resulting in reduced storage and pest management cost while improving grain quality.

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A large subsurface, elevated temperature anomaly is well documented in Central Australia. High Heat Producing Granites (HHPGs) intersected by drilling at Innamincka are often assumed to be the dominant cause of the elevated subsurface temperatures, although their presence in other parts of the temperature anomaly has not been confirmed. Geological controls on the temperature anomaly remain poorly understood. Additionally, methods previously used to predict temperature at 5 km depth in this area are simplistic and possibly do not give an accurate representation of the true distribution and magnitude of the temperature anomaly. Here we re-evaluate the geological controls on geothermal potential in the Queensland part of the temperature anomaly using a stochastic thermal model. The results illustrate that the temperature distribution is most sensitive to the thermal conductivity structure of the top 5 km. Furthermore, the results indicate the presence of silicic crust enriched in heat producing elements between and 40 km.