Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Why fundamentalism?

Why Fundamentalism? was an exhibition proposal and critical writing project developed from concept phase through to detailed proposal. It included an edited video document that lay out its core ideas and presented the diverse voices of each collaborator. A number of key themes were engaged around the hot-button (and much misunderstood) concept of Fundamentalism. The proposal included an exhibition layout, developed test imagery, ideas and animations, proposed forms for future works and a process whereby design briefs would lead to subsequent commissions. Two major grant applications were submitted to the Australia Council and Arts Queensland, with the support of State Library of Queensland, the University of Adelaide and numerous others. The project remains at the developed proposal stage awaiting suitable funding----- Critically the show became an active vehicle for drawing and exploring a line of distinction between ideas of ‘what is fundamental’ and ‘fundamentalism’ as it rested in the popular imagination, as well as in political and philosophical debates. It teased out and engaged with a number of key questions that included The Problem of Ungroundedness, A Politics of Finitude, The Post-modern/Pluralist Problem, Silent Fundamentalisms (Voices of Reason and Neo-con Religions), Fundamentalism as a Media Construct, The Pre and Post Cold-war Other, The Pressing Need for Foundations in the West and Islam as Foundationalism (rather than fundamentalism).

Party 25

Party 25 involved the conception and public launch of a radically new form of political party during that year’s Australian general election. The entire project was also intentioned as a conceptual artwork. Party 25 avoided conventional party-political approaches and was neither a protest group nor an advocacy organisation, but rather a new form of political association that confronted what we understood as the debilitating limits and impotence of contemporary parliamentary democracies in transitioning our societies towards ecological sustainability.----- Party 25 was based on responding to one fundamental question which all of its policies served - “how does humanity get to the 25th century?” By basing itself on a dramatically long-term approach uncommon within conventional politics it raised the proposition that humanity does not have an assured future. Party25 therefore shaped its agendas around the idea that any future now lies in human hands and so how humanity treats the ecologies on which it depends innately determines the quality of the inseparable relationship between its being, and the being of the biophysical world.----- The project was conceived through a number of discussion papers, workshops and creative works and was launched publicly at the Judith Wright Centre Brisbane accompanied by a full length showing of evocative imagery, text and sound, a series of speeches and the launch of a succinct web presence. Through the website and this party launch a community of interested participants and creative practitioners was sought who then would form the basis of a nascent community of change.