Investigating the future of project management : a co-word analysis approach

If Project Management (PM) is a well-accepted mode of managing organizations, more and more organizations are adopting PM in order to satisfy the diversified needs of application areas within a variety of industries and organizations. Concurrently, the number of PM practitioners and people involved at various level of qualification is vigorously rising. Thus the importance to characterize, define and understand this field and its underlying strength, basis and development is paramount. For this purpose we will referee to sociology of actor-networks and qualitative scientometrics leading to the choice of the co-word analysis method in enabling us to capture the project management field and its dynamics. Results of a study based on the analysis of EBSCO Business Source Premier Database will be presented and some future trends and scenarios proposed. The main following trends are confirmed, in alignment with previous studies: continuous interest for the “cost engineering” aspects, on going interest for Economic aspects and contracts, how to deal with various project types (categorizations), the integration with Supply Chain Management and Learning and Knowledge Management. Furthermore besides these continuous trends, we can note new areas of interest: the link between strategy and project, Governance, the importance of maturity (organizational performance and metrics, control) and Change Management. We see the actors (Professional Bodies, Governmental Bodies, Agencies, Universities, Industries, Researchers, and Practitioners) reinforcing their competing/cooperative strategies in the development of standards and certifications and moving to more “business oriented” relationships with their members and main stakeholders (Governments, Institutions like European Community, Industries, Agencies, NGOs…), at least at central level.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

The future shape of digital cars

Background. Digital information is increasingly becoming available on all aspects of the urban landscape, anywhere and any time. Physical objects (c.f. the Internet of Things) and people (c.f. the Social Web) are increasingly infused with actuators, sensors and tagged with a wealth of digital information. Urban Informatics explores these emerging digital layers of the city. However, very little is known about the challenges and new opportunities that these developments may offer to road users. As we gradually spend more time using our mobile devices as well as our car, the tension between appeasing our craving for connectedness and road safety requirements grow farther apart. Objective. The aims of this paper are to identify (a) new opportunities that Urban Informatics research can offer to our future cars and (b) potential benefits to road safety. Methods. 14 Urban Informatics research experts were grouped into seven teams of two to participate in a guided ideation (idea creation) workshop in a driving simulator. They were immersed into different driving scenarios to brainstorm innovative Urban Informatics applications in different driving contexts. This qualitative study was then evaluated in the context of road safety. Outcomes. There is a lack of articulation between Urban Informatics and Road Safety research. Several Urban Informatics applications (e.g., to enhance social interaction between people in urban environments) may provide benefits, rather than threats, towards road safety, provided they are implemented ergonomically and safely. Conclusions. This research initiates a much-needed dialogue between Urban Informatics and Road Safety disciplines, in the context of Intelligent Transport Systems, before the fast approaching digital wave invades our cars. The dialogue will help to avoid driver distraction issues similar to mobile phones use in cars. As such, it provides valuable information for future regulators and policy makers in charge of shaping our future road transport landscape.

Using scenarios to explore the social aspects of design led innovations

Emerging technologies have redefined the way people go about everyday life. An increasing array of online and on-the-go solutions supporting remote work, entertainment on demand, information sharing, social communication, telehealth and beyond, are now available at the touch of a screen. This paper discusses concept of scenarios as a design tool that can be successfully employed by organisations as an innovative design led approach to: (i) understand people’s everyday practices in current social contexts in order to identify opportunities and emerging markets, and (ii) reveal stakeholder relationships existing in the provision of services within current everyday practices. To illustrate this approach, two case studies will be presented: the first focusing on a real industry project exploring opportunities for the development of future health care services, the second focusing on people’s access to services as part of a transport journey experience. This paper aims to demonstrate the use of scenarios as part of a design led innovation approach to understand the social aspects and their complexities of new designs in an increasing everyday technological driven context.

The smart skies project : enabling technologies for future airspace environments

This paper summarises the achievements of the Smart Skies Project, a three-year, multi-award winning international project that researched, developed and extensively flight tested four enabling aviation technologies: an electrooptical mid-air collision avoidance system, a static obstacle avoidance system, a mobile ground-based air traffic surveillance system, and a global automated airspace separation management system. The project included the development of manned and unmanned flight test aircraft, which were used to characterise the performance of the prototype systems for a range of realistic scenarios under a variety of environmental conditions. In addition to the collection of invaluable flight data, the project achieved world-firsts in the demonstration of future automated collision avoidance and separation management concepts. This paper summarises these outcomes, the overall objectives of the project, the research and the development of the prototype systems, the engineering of the flight test systems, and the results obtained from flight-testing.

Finding our way to the future : directions for a city of opportunity

This Australian case study of futures methodologies in local government explores the development and implementation of the Logan 2026 City Directions project. As an innovative approach to strategic planning, and forming the city visioning umbrella for the Strategic Planning and Performance Management Framework of Council, Logan 2026 City Directions has facilitated greater engagement with the community and represents an opportunity for Council to explore and build on the organisation's foresight capacity and to enhance internal communications within the organisation. One significant by-product has been ongoing dialogue and actions of the workshop groups in Council seeking to address such issues as climate change.

The future of power in the network era

This article asks questions about the futures of power in the network era. Two critical emerging issues are at work with uncertain outcomes. The first is the emergence of the collaborative economy, while the second is the emergence of surveillance capabilities from both civic, state and commercial sources. While both of these emerging issues are expected by many to play an important role in the future development of our societies, it is still unclear whose values and whose purposes will be furthered. This article argues that the futures of these emerging issues depend on contests for power. As such, four scenarios are developed for the futures of power in the network era using the double variable scenario approach.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

EUTOPIA 75+ : exploratory futures scenarios for baby boomers’ preferred living spaces

Australia is experiencing the global phenomenon of an ageing population with the baby boomer generation starting to reach retirement age in large numbers. As a result, there is a growing need for appropriate accommodation and this will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. However, the needs of the fit, mobile and techno savvy baby boomers are likely to be far different from those of previous generations of older people, but are as yet unknown and unanticipated. This paper reports on the findings of a Futuring research project to explore the preferred housing futures for the baby boomer generation in the city of Brisbane, an aspiring creative city in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Their future home design and service needs are predicted by firstly employing a global environmental scan of related and associated ageing futures issues. This was followed by a micro-Futuring workshop, based on Inayatullah’s Futures Triangle Analysis, to identify a range of scenarios. The key aspects of the workshop culminated in the development of a Transformational Scenario – EUTOPIA 75+. From this, a suite of six design recommendations for seniors’ housing design and smart services provision are synthesised to give a sense of direction of preferred living styles, especially in terms of physical housing spaces, with a view to identifying new house design opportunities for the allied industries and research organisations. The issues identified are also of concern for aged care service providers, retirement living developers, and for academics involved in the social and physical design of living spaces for older people.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

Background Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. Objectives We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Discussion Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Conclusions Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.

A neurofuzzy approach to future intelligent driver support systems

This paper reviews a variety of advanced signal processing algorithms that have been developed at the University of Southampton as part of the Prometheus (PROgraMme for European Traffic flow with Highest Efficiency and Unprecedented Safety) research programme to achieve an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS). The IDWS includes: visual detection of both generic obstacles and other vehicles, together with their tracking and identification, estimates of time to collision and behavioural modelling of drivers for a variety of scenarios. These application areas are used to show the applicability of neurofuzzy techniques to the wide range of problems required to support an IDWS, and for future fully autonomous vehicles.

Scenario planning and emerging global trends for the future of roads and automobile transport

Roads and road infrastructure will be faced with multiple challenges over the coming decades – challenges that in many ways bear little resemblance to those previously faced - and as such will require new approaches. The opportunity exists to transform the way road infrastructure is conceived and constructed, as a key part of the process of assisting society to respond to climate change and reduce other environmental pressures. Innovations in road construction, use and management in order to manage these changes can now be seen. Scenario planning is one tool that can take into account emerging challenges, develop or adopt new approaches, and thus help this transformation to occur. The paper explores scenario planning methodologies, global innovations and trends in road construction and maintenance and the findings from stakeholder workshops in Brisbane and Perth. It highlights key opportunities for road agencies to use scenarios to enable planning that, in the face of future uncertainties, facilitates appropriate responses.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Rockhampton's Resilient Future Design Charrette

The QUT Centre for Subtropical Design conducted a design-led interdisciplinary collaborative workshop (charrette) to develop some initial ideas for how innovation in research and practice can be applied to the complex problem of resilient future-focussed urban renewal in Rockhampton’s flood-prone suburbs and core grid. Three creative teams explored a range of scenarios for Rockhampton’s resilience in built form over the longer term. A large number of sketches, drawings and text were produced over two days. This report identifies themes, principles and strategies which emerged from the charrette. Each group proposed multiple guiding principles that fell into three strategic approaches: defend (through construction of a levee); adapt (by designing with flood in mind); retreat (a long term view to relocate populations in flood-prone areas). All three groups identified the importance of design that accommodates art, heritage, recreation, sustainability and tourism, and proposed these as principles to guide future strategies that mediate between Rockhampton’s broader ecological landscape and urban living to accommodate more affordable housing options, demonstrate sustainability and be climate responsive to predicted increased extreme weather events including flooding. The charrette outcomes pave the way to investigate wider issues and solutions to Rockhampton’s resilient future, beyond a levee as an isolated structure.