Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Influence of historical landscapes, drainage evolution and ecological traits on patterns of genetic diversity in Southeast Asian freshwater snakehead fishes

Snakehead fishes in the family Channidae are obligate freshwater fishes represented by two extant genera, the African Parachannna and the Asian Channa. These species prefer still or slow flowing water bodies, where they are top predators that exercise high levels of parental care, have the ability to breathe air, can tolerate poor water quality, and interestingly, can aestivate or traverse terrestrial habitat in response to seasonal changes in freshwater habitat availability. These attributes suggest that snakehead fishes may possess high dispersal potential, irrespective of the terrestrial barriers that would otherwise constrain the distribution of most freshwater fishes. A number of biogeographical hypotheses have been developed to account for the modern distributions of snakehead fishes across two continents, including ancient vicariance during Gondwanan break-up, or recent colonisation tracking the formation of suitable climatic conditions. Taxonomic uncertainty also surrounds some members of the Channa genus, as geographical distributions for some taxa across southern and Southeast (SE) Asia are very large, and in one case is highly disjunct. The current study adopted a molecular genetics approach to gain an understanding of the evolution of this group of fishes, and in particular how the phylogeography of two Asian species may have been influenced by contemporary versus historical levels of dispersal and vicariance. First, a molecular phylogeny was constructed based on multiple DNA loci and calibrated with fossil evidence to provide a dated chronology of divergence events among extant species, and also within species with widespread geographical distributions. The data provide strong evidence that trans-continental distribution of the Channidae arose as a result of dispersal out of Asia and into Africa in the mid–Eocene. Among Asian Channa, deep divergence among lineages indicates that the Oligocene-Miocene boundary was a time of significant species radiation, potentially associated with historical changes in climate and drainage geomorphology. Mid-Miocene divergence among lineages suggests that a taxonomic revision is warranted for two taxa. Deep intra-specific divergence (~8Mya) was also detected between C. striata lineages that occur sympatrically in the Mekong River Basin. The study then examined the phylogeography and population structure of two major taxa, Channa striata (the chevron snakehead) and the C. micropeltes (the giant snakehead), across SE Asia. Species specific microsatellite loci were developed and used in addition to a mitochondrial DNA marker (Cyt b) to screen neutral genetic variation within and among wild populations. C. striata individuals were sampled across SE Asia (n=988), with the major focus being the Mekong Basin, which is the largest drainage basin in the region. The distributions of two divergent lineages were identified and admixture analysis showed that where they co-occur they are interbreeding, indicating that after long periods of evolution in isolation, divergence has not resulted in reproductive isolation. One lineage is predominantly confined to upland areas of northern Lao PDR to the north of the Khorat Plateau, while the other, which is more closely related to individuals from southern India, has a widespread distribution across mainland SE Asian and Sumatra. The phylogeographical pattern recovered is associated with past river networks, and high diversity and divergence among all populations sampled reveal that contemporary dispersal is very low for this taxon, even where populations occur in contiguous freshwater habitats. C. micropeltes (n=280) were also sampled from across the Mekong River Basin, focusing on the lower basin where it constitutes an important wild fishery resource. In comparison with C. striata, allelic diversity and genetic divergence among populations were extremely low, suggesting very recent colonisation of the greater Mekong region. Populations were significantly structured into at least three discrete populations in the lower Mekong. Results of this study have implications for establishing effective conservation plans for managing both species, that represent economically important wild fishery resources for the region. For C. micropeltes, it is likely that a single fisheries stock in the Tonle Sap Great Lake is being exploited by multiple fisheries operations, and future management initiatives for this species in this region will need to account for this. For C. striata, conservation of natural levels of genetic variation will require management initiatives designed to promote population persistence at very localised spatial scales, as the high level of population structuring uncovered for this species indicates that significant unique diversity is present at this fine spatial scale.

The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Designing and using historical vignettes in science teaching : a personal account

Historical vignettes are interesting short stories which encapsulate a brief period of scientific history. They can be useful tools for teaching the nature of science, demonstrating the practices of science and making science fun. Historical vignettes illustrate the role of people and social processes in science. In this paper I describe my experience with writing and presenting an historical vignette during a Biology unit. Included is a copy of the vignette and I have identified some possible improvements that might lead to better outcomes. This may be helpful for other teachers who wish to try this strategy for themselves.

Evaluating educational software : a historical overview and the challenges ahead

Teachers are under increasing pressure from government and school management to incorporate technology into lessons. They need to consider which technologies can most effectively enhance subject learning, encourage higher order thinking skills and support the performance of authentic tasks. This chapter reviews the practical and theoretical tools that have been developed to aid teachers in selecting software and reviews the software assessment methodologies from the 1980s to the present day. It concludes that teachers need guidance to structure the evaluation of technology, to consider its educational affordances, its usability, its suitability for the students and the classroom environment and its fit to the teachers’ preferred pedagogies.

Comparison of Kenz Lifecorder EX and ActiGraph accelerometers in 10-yr-old children

A new accelerometer, the Kenz Lifecorder EX (LC; Suzuken Co. Ltd, Nagoya, Japan), offers promise as a feasible monitor alternative to the commonly used Actigraph (AG: Actigraph LLC, Fort Walton Beach, FL). Purpose: This study compared the LC and AG accelerometers and the Yamax SW-200 pedometer (DW) under free-living conditions with regard to children's steps taken and time in light-intensity physical activity (PA) and moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA). Methods: Participants (N = 31, age = 10.2 ± 0.4 yr) wore LC, AG, and DW monitors from arrival at school (7:45 a.m.) until they went to bed. Time in light and MVPA intensities were calculated using two separate intensity classifications for the LC (LC_4 and LC_5) and four classifications for the AG (AG_Treuth, AG_Puyau, AG_Trost, and AG_Freedson). Both accelerometers provided steps as outputs. DW steps were self-recorded. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to assess overlapping monitor outputs. Results: There was no difference between DW and LC steps (Δ = 200 steps), but a nonsignificant trend was observed in the pairwise comparison between DW and AG steps (Δ = 1001 steps, P = 0.058). AG detected significantly greater steps than the LC (Δ = 801 steps, P = 0.001). Estimates of light-intensity activity minutes ranged from a low of 75.6 ± 18.4 min (LC_4) to a high of 309 ± 69.2 min (AG_Treuth). Estimates of MVPA minutes ranged from a low of 25.9 ± 9.4 min (LC_5) to a high of 112.2 ± 34.5 min (AG_Freedson). No significant differences in MVPA were seen between LC_5 and AG_Treuth (Δ = 4.9 min) or AG_Puyau (Δ = 1.7 min). Conclusion: The LC detected a comparable number of steps as the DW but significantly fewer steps than the AG in children. Current results indicate that the LC_5 and either AG_Treuth or AG_Puyau intensity derivations provide similar mean estimates of time in MVPA during-free living activity in 10-yr-old children.

Abduction : the writing of a historical novel

This is a practice-led project consisting of a historical novel Abduction and related exegesis. The novel is a third person intimate narrative set in the mid-nineteenth century and is based on actual events and persons caught up in, or furthering, the mass dispossession of small farmers in Scotland known as the ‘Clearances’. The narrative focuses on the situation in the Outer Hebrides and northern Scotland. It is based on documented facts leading up to a controversial trial in 1850 that arose because a twenty year old woman of the period (the central protagonist, Jess Mackenzie) eloped with a young farmer to escape her parent’s pressure to marry a rival suitor, himself a powerful lawyer and ‘factor’ at the centre of many of the Clearances. The young woman’s independent ideas were ahead of her time, and the decisions she made under great pressure were crucial in some dramatic events that unfolded in Scotland and later in the colony of Victoria, to which she and her new husband emigrated soon after the trial. The exegesis is composed of two unequal parts. It briefly considers the development of the literary historical fiction genre in the nineteenth century with Walter Scott in particular, a genre found useful in representing women’s issues of the Victorian era by Victorian and contemporary authors. The exegesis also briefly considers the appropriateness of the fiction genre (as opposed to creative nonfiction) in creating the lived experience in a fact-based work. The major part of the exegesis is a detailed, reflective analysis of the problem-solving process involved in writing the novel, structured by reference to Kate Grenville’s Searching for the Secret River – a work of metawriting that explains her creative process in researching and writing historical fiction based on fact.

The power of historical causal components involved in engaging at risk youth at three alternative schools

This article addresses the causal powers associated with the social phenomena of alternative schooling for youth at risk. It stems from a doctoral thesis, Alternative Schooling Programs for At Risk Youth – Three Case Studies which addresses wider issues integral to alternative schooling: youth at risk, alternative schooling models, and literacy. This article explores one aspect of alternative schooling: the historical causal factors involved in the establishment and continuance of three alternative case study models in Queensland, Australia. By adhering to Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) , social structures and individuals will be analytically distinguished to uncover their separate causal powers and how these have effected the establishment and continuance of three alternative schools.

Arts and creative industries : a historical overview; and an Australian conversation

Australia should seek new and liberating ways to bring together the arts, popular culture and the creative industries, according to Arts and creative industries. The report, funded by the Australia Council for the Arts and prepared by Professor Justin O’Connor of the Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology, looks at ways in which the policy relationship between these often polarised sectors of arts and creative industries might be re-thought and approached more productively. The report is in two parts, commencing with An Australian conversation, in which Professor O’Connor, with Stuart Cunningham and Luke Jaaniste, document a series of in depth interviews with 18 leading practitioners across the creative industries. They discuss their perceptions of the similarities, differences and connections between the arts and creative industries. The interviews frequently returned to the fundamental question of what was meant by ‘art’ and ‘creative industries’. The second, larger part of Arts and creative industries, addresses this question through an extensive review of the discussions of art and its relation to society and culture over the last few centuries. A historical overview highlights the importance that art has had in developing our comprehension of the modern world. It also examines the enthusiasm for the creative industries over the last 15 years or so and the impact this has had on creative policy-making. Arts and creative industries suggests there is no dividing line between publicly-funded arts, popular culture and the blossoming businesses of the creative sector – and national policy should reflect this. This study was commissioned by the Australia Council as part of a long-running and productive relationship between the council and the ARC Centre of Excellence on Creative Industries and Innovation at the Queensland University of Technology.

Analysis of ten years historical weather data in Australia

Typical reference year (TRY) weather data is often used to represent the long term weather pattern for building simulation and design. Through the analysis of ten year historical hourly weather data for seven Australian major capital cities using the frequencies procedure of descriptive statistics analysis (by SPSS software), this paper investigates: • the closeness of the typical reference year (TRY) weather data in representing the long term weather pattern; • the variations and common features that may exist between relatively hot and cold years. It is found that for the given set of input data, in comparison with the other weather elements, the discrepancy between TRY and multiple years is much smaller for the dry bulb temperature, relative humidity and global solar irradiance. The overall distribution patterns of key weather elements are also generally similar between the hot and cold years, but with some shift and/or small distortion. There is little common tendency of change between the hot and the cold years for different weather variables at different study locations.

"The greatest harbour in the world" : Sydney Harbour as a contested space in Australian culture

It is a matter of public record that the former Prime Minister of Australia, the Honourable Paul Keating, upset certain Australian architects with his intervention into the redevelopment of the 22-hectare “Barangaroo” site on Sydney Harbour. While Keating’s intervention continues to provide engaging theatre for Sydney residents the debate is also an interesting expression of the narrative of contestation that has been played out historically about the waters of Sydney Harbour. From a cultural studies perspective, the Harbour, and the Sydney Harbour Bridge, has been for many years a political and imaginative space that captures a diversity of local and national preoccupations. Keating’s announcement that planners have a “once-in-200-year opportunity to call a halt to the kind of encroachments we have seen in the past” is in fact another moment in the long history of disputation over the impact of the man-made environment on the natural landform in this area. This paper addresses the spaces of Sydney Harbour as represented in recent debates and in writing and film from previous decades. The argument suggests that the Harbour is a complex site of public and private enactment that is played out in a diverse range of cultural representations. In particular, the paper notes the work of Michel de Certeau on the mythic qualities of certain spaces in relation to the space of the Harbour. ‘The Greatest Harbour in the World’ argues that the Harbour, and the Bridge, fulfils a particular historical and cultural function that gives this space a set of meanings that are well beyond the typical parameters of urban development.

A situated approach to historical thinking in the Australian Curriculum : History

This paper focuses on the importance of foregrounding an emphasis on the development of historical thinking in the implementation of the Australian Curriculum: History as a way of making the study of history meaningful for their students. In doing so, it argues that teachers need to take up the opportunity to situate the study of Asia as a significant component of the curriculum’s ‘Australia in a world history approach’. In the discussion on the significance of historical thinking, the paper specifically addresses those seven historical concepts articulated in the new history curriculum by drawing from the international scholarship in the field of history education on the ways in which children and adolescents think about historical content and concepts.