Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Technical report : acoustic analysis of the natural environment

This technical report is concerned with one aspect of environmental monitoring—the detection and analysis of acoustic events in sound recordings of the environment. Sound recordings offer ecologists the advantage of cheaper and increased sampling but make available so much data that automated analysis becomes essential. The report describes a number of tools for automated analysis of recordings, including noise removal from spectrograms, acoustic event detection, event pattern recognition, spectral peak tracking, syntactic pattern recognition applied to call syllables, and oscillation detection. These algorithms are applied to a number of animal call recognition tasks, chosen because they illustrate quite different modes of analysis: (1) the detection of diffuse events caused by wind and rain, which are frequent contaminants of recordings of the terrestrial environment; (2) the detection of bird and calls; and (3) the preparation of acoustic maps for whole ecosystem analysis. This last task utilises the temporal distribution of events over a daily, monthly or yearly cycle.

Sloshing motion of water in a moonpool

This thesis is concerned with the sloshing motion of water in a moonpool. It is a relatively new problem, that is particularly predominant in moonpools with relatively large dimensions. The problem is further complicated by the additional behaviour of vertical oscillation. It is inevitable that large moonpools will be needed as offshore technology advances, therefore making a problem an important one. The research involves two parts, the theoretical and experimental study. The theoretical study consists of idealising the moonpool to a two dimensional system, represented by two surface piercing parallel barriers at a distance 2a apart. The barriers are forced to undergo roll motion which in turn generates waves. These travelling waves are travelling in opposite directions to each other and have the same amplitude and period, and thus can be expressed in terms of a standing wave. This is mathematically achieved by applying the theory of wavemaking, and therefore the wave amplitude at the side wall can be evaluated at near resonant conditions. The experimental study comprises of comparing the results obtained from the tank and moonpool experiments. The rolling motion creates the sloshing waves in both cases, in addition the vertical oscillation in the moonpool is produced by generating waves at one end of the towing tank. Apart from highlighting influencing parameters, the resonant frequencies obtained from these experiments are then compared with the theoretical values. Experiments in demonstrating the effect of increasing damping with the aid of baffles are also conducted. This is an important aspect which is very necessary if operations in launching and retrieving are to be carried out efficiently and safely.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic : bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Les littératies multiples et le devenir plurilingue (Keynote)

Cette présentation met en avant la Théorie des Littératies Multiples (TLM) et l’importance de lire, lire le monde et se lire, dans le but de se transformer en contexte plurilingue. La première partie de cette communication sera consacrée à la présentation des principes fondamentaux de la TLM. Il est vrai que la littératie valorisée par l’école est souvent celle qui est la plus prisée dans la recherche et l’enseignement. La TLM enlève la littératie scolaire de sa place privilégiée et l’insère dans un agencement de littératies au foyer, à l’école et dans la communauté. Les littératies, en tant que construit renvoient aux mots, aux gestes, aux attitudes, ou plus exactement, aux façons de parler, de lire, d’écrire et de valoriser les réalités de la vie. Elles sont une façon de devenir avec le monde. Les littératies constituent des textes au sens large (comme par exemple, la musique, l’art, la physique et les athématiques) qui peuvent être visuels,oraux, écrits, tactiles,olfactifs ou numériques. Elles se fusionnent aux contextes sociopolitiques, culturels, économiques, genrés et racialisés, qui de par leur caractère mobile et fluide transforment les littératies génératrices de locuteurs, de scripteurs, d’artistes, d’ava tars et de communautés. Les littératies prennent leur sens en contexte, dans le temps et l’espace où on se trouve De ce fait, leur actualisation n’est pas prédéterminée et est imprévisible. La TLM s’intéresse aux rôles joués par les littératies. Lire, lire le monde et se lire a pour fonction importante entre autres de transformer une vie, une communauté et une société. La deuxième partie de cette communication sera consacrée à un projet de recherche ayant pour objectif d’explorer la façon dont des enfants acquièrent simultanément deux ou plusieurs systèmes d’écriture. Des enfants âgés de 5 à 8 ans ont participé à des activités filmées en salle de classe, au foyer et dans leur quartier. Puis des entretiens ont été menés avec les enfants, leurs parents et leurs enseignants. Ce projet nous permet de mieux saisir ce que signifient en contexte plurilingue les littératies en tant que processus. Le projet s’intéresse à ce qu’implique lire, lire le monde et se lire à l’école, au foyer et dans la communauté. Dans une société pluraliste, nous sommes plus que jamais ensibilisés aux contextes particuliers dans lesquels lire, lire le monde et se lire s’actualisent, qu’il s’agisse d’un nouvel arrivant ou d’une personne vivant en milieu minoritaire.

A behavioural car-following model that captures traffic oscillations

This paper presents a behavioral car-following model based on empirical trajectory data that is able to reproduce the spontaneous formation and ensuing propagation of stop-and-go waves in congested traffic. By analyzing individual drivers’ car-following behavior throughout oscillation cycles it is found that this behavior is consistent across drivers and can be captured by a simple model. The statistical analysis of the model’s parameters reveals that there is a strong correlation between driver behavior before and during the oscillation, and that this correlation should not be ignored if one is interested in microscopic output. If macroscopic outputs are of interest, simulation results indicate that an existing model with fewer parameters can be used instead. This is shown for traffic oscillations caused by rubbernecking as observed in the US 101 NGSIM dataset. The same experiment is used to establish the relationship between rubbernecking behavior and the period of oscillations.

Bin Laden in the Suburbs: Criminalising the Arab Other

This book examines public worrying over 'ethnic crime' and what it tells us about Australia today. How, for instance, can the blame for a series of brutal group sexual assaults in Sydney be so widely attributed to whole ethnic communities? How is it that the arrival of a foundering boatload of asylum-seekers mostly seeking refuge from despotic regimes in 'the Middle East' can be manipulated to characterise complete cohorts of applicants for refuge 'and their immigrant compatriots' as dangerous, dishonest, criminally inclined and inhuman? How did the airborne terror attacks on the USA on 11 September 2001 exacerbate existing tendencies in Australia to stereotype Arabs and Muslims as backward, inassimilable, without respect for Western laws and values, and complicit with barbarism and terrorism? Bin Laden in the Suburbs argues that we are witnessing the emergence of the 'Arab Other' as the pre-eminent 'folk devil' of our time. This Arab Other functions in the national imaginary to prop up the project of national belonging. It has little to do with the lived experiences of Arab, Middle Eastern or Muslim Australians, and everything to do with a host of social anxieties which overlap in a series of moral panics. Bin Laden in the Suburbs analyses a decisive moment in the history of multiculturalism in Australia. 'Unlike most migrants, the Arab migrant is a subversive will ... They invade our shores, take over our neighbourhood and rape our women. They are all little bin Ladens and they are everywhere: Explicit bin Ladens and closet bin Ladens; Conscious bin Ladens and unconscious bin Ladens; bin Ladens on the beach and bin Ladens in the suburbs, as this book is aptly titled. Within this register ... even a single Arab is a threat. Contain the Arab or exterminate the Arab? A 'tolerable' presence in the suburbs, or caged in a concentration camp? ... The politics of the Western post-colonial state is constantly and dangerously oscillating between these tendencies today. It is this dangerous oscillation that is so lucidly exposed in this book'.

Microscopic traffic hysteresis in traffic oscillations : a behavioral perspective

This paper studies traffic hysteresis arising in traffic oscillations from a behavioral perspective. It is found that the occurrence and type of traffic hysteresis is closely correlated with driver behavior when experiencing traffic oscillations and with the time driver reaction begins relative to the starting deceleration wave. Statistical results suggest that driver behavior is different depending on its position along the oscillation. This suggests that different car-following models should be used inside the different stages of an oscillation in order to replicate realistic congestion features.

Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Generator coherency and area detection in large power systems

This paper provides a new general approach for defining coherent generators in power systems based on the coherency in low frequency inter-area modes. The disturbance is considered to be distributed in the network by applying random load changes which is the random walk representation of real loads instead of a single fault and coherent generators are obtained by spectrum analysis of the generators velocity variations. In order to find the coherent areas and their borders in the inter-connected networks, non-generating buses are assigned to each group of coherent generator using similar coherency detection techniques. The method is evaluated on two test systems and coherent generators and areas are obtained for different operating points to provide a more accurate grouping approach which is valid across a range of realistic operating points of the system.

Modelling sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers using heterogeneous computing

The objective of this PhD research program is to investigate numerical methods for simulating variably-saturated flow and sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers in a high-performance computing environment. The work is divided into three overlapping tasks: to develop an accurate and stable finite volume discretisation and numerical solution strategy for the variably-saturated flow and salt transport equations; to implement the chosen approach in a high performance computing environment that may have multiple GPUs or CPU cores; and to verify and test the implementation. The geological description of aquifers is often complex, with porous materials possessing highly variable properties, that are best described using unstructured meshes. The finite volume method is a popular method for the solution of the conservation laws that describe sea water intrusion, and is well-suited to unstructured meshes. In this work we apply a control volume-finite element (CV-FE) method to an extension of a recently proposed formulation (Kees and Miller, 2002) for variably saturated groundwater flow. The CV-FE method evaluates fluxes at points where material properties and gradients in pressure and concentration are consistently defined, making it both suitable for heterogeneous media and mass conservative. Using the method of lines, the CV-FE discretisation gives a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs) amenable to solution using higher-order implicit solvers. Heterogeneous computer systems that use a combination of computational hardware such as CPUs and GPUs, are attractive for scientific computing due to the potential advantages offered by GPUs for accelerating data-parallel operations. We present a C++ library that implements data-parallel methods on both CPU and GPUs. The finite volume discretisation is expressed in terms of these data-parallel operations, which gives an efficient implementation of the nonlinear residual function. This makes the implicit solution of the DAE system possible on the GPU, because the inexact Newton-Krylov method used by the implicit time stepping scheme can approximate the action of a matrix on a vector using residual evaluations. We also propose preconditioning strategies that are amenable to GPU implementation, so that all computationally-intensive aspects of the implicit time stepping scheme are implemented on the GPU. Results are presented that demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numeric methods and formulation. The formulation offers excellent conservation of mass, and higher-order temporal integration increases both numeric efficiency and accuracy of the solutions. Flux limiting produces accurate, oscillation-free solutions on coarse meshes, where much finer meshes are required to obtain solutions with equivalent accuracy using upstream weighting. The computational efficiency of the software is investigated using CPUs and GPUs on a high-performance workstation. The GPU version offers considerable speedup over the CPU version, with one GPU giving speedup factor of 3 over the eight-core CPU implementation.

First-principle studies of electronic structure and C-doping effect in boron nitride nanoribbon

Structural and electronic properties have been studied for Boron Nitride nanoribbons (BNNR) with both zigzag and armchair shaped edge (Z-BNNR and A-BNNR) by first-principle spin-polarized total energy calculations. We found that the energy band gap of Z-BNNR is indirect and decreases monotonically with the increasing ribbon width, whereas direct energy band gap oscillation was observed for A-BNNRs. Additionally, C-substitution at either single boron or nitrogen atom site in BNNRs could induce spontaneous magnetization. Our results could be potentially useful to design magnetic nano-devices based on BNNRs.

Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia – a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup

Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (∼30–22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (∼22–18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray–Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (∼18–12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after ∼12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after ∼6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.