173 resultados para Decision-analysis
Resumo:
In recent years accounting education has seen numerous changes to the way financial accounting is taught. These changes reflect the demands of an ever-changing business world, opportunities created by new technology and instructional technologies, and an increased understanding of how students learn. The foundation of Financial Accounting is based on a number of unique principles and innovations in accounting education. The objective of Financial Accounting is to provide students with an understanding of those concepts that are fundamental to the preparation and use of accounting information. Most students will forget procedural details within a short period of time. On the other hand, concepts, if well taught, should be remembered for a lifetime. Concepts are especially important in a world where the details are constantly changing. Students learn best when they are actively engaged. The overriding pedagogical objective of Financial Accounting is to provide students with continual opportunities for active learning. One of the best tools for active learning is strategically placed questions. Discussions are framed by questions, often beginning with rhetorical questions and ending with review questions, and our analytical devices, called decision-making toolkits, use key questions to demonstrate the purpose of each.
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In some Queensland universities, Information Systems academics have moved out of Business Faculties. This study uses a pilot SWOT analysis to examine the ramifications of Information Systems academics being located within or outside of the Business Faculty. The analysis provides a useful basis for decision makers in the School studied, to exploit opportunities and minimise external threats. For Information Systems academics contemplating administrative relocation of their group, the study also offers useful insights. The study presages a series of further SWOT analyses to provide a range of perspectives on the relative merits of having Information Systems academics administratively located inside versus outside Business faculties.
Resumo:
With the application of GIS methodologies to spatial data, researchers can now identify patterns of occurrence for many social problems including health-issues and crime. Further more, since this type of data also contains clues as to the underlying causes of social problems, it can be used to make well-educated and consequently, more effective policy decisions.
Resumo:
The importance of broadening community participation in environmental decision-making is widely recognized and lack of participation in this process appears to be a perennial problem. In this context, there have been calls from some academics for the more extensive use of geographic information systems (GIS) and distance learning technologies, accessible via the Internet, as a possible means to inform and empower communities. However, a number of problems exist. For instance, at present the scope for online interaction between policy-makers and citizens is currently limited. Contemporary web-based environmental information systems suffer from this lack of interactivity on the one hand and on the other hand from the apparent complexity for the lay user. This paper explores the issue of online community participation at the local level and attempts to construct a framework for a new (and potentially more effective) model of online participatory decision-making. The key components, system architecture and stages of such a model are introduced. This model, referred to as a ‘Community Based Interactive Environmental Decision Support System’, incorporates advanced information technologies, distance learning and community involvement tools which will be applied and evaluated in the field through a pilot project in Tokyo in the summer of 2002.
Resumo:
The use of computing to support environmental planning and the development of land use models dates back to the late 1950s. The main thrust of computing applications, which by the early 1980s increasingly included the use of geospatial technologies, is their contribution to better planning and decision making. The computing tools and technologies are designed to enhance the planners’ capability to deal with complex environments and to plan for prosperous and livable communities. This paper examines the role of Information Technologies (IT) and particularly Internet Based Geographic Information Systems (Internet GIS) as spatial decision support systems to aid community based local decision making. The paper also covers the advantages and challenges of these internet based mapping applications and tools for collaborative decision making on the environment.
Resumo:
Since the industrial revolution, our world has experienced rapid and unplanned industrialization and urbanization. As a result, we have had to cope with serious environmental challenges. In this context, explanation of how smart urban ecosystems can emerge, gains a crucial importance. Capacity building and community involvement have always been the key issues in achieving sustainable development and enhancing urban ecosystems. By considering these, this paper looks at new approaches to increase public awareness of environmental decision making. This paper will discuss the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), particularly Web-based Geographic Information Systems (Web-based GIS) as spatial decision support systems to aid public participatory environmental decision making. The paper also explores the potential and constraints of these web-based tools for collaborative decision making.
Resumo:
The availability of innumerable intelligent building (IB) products, and the current dearth of inclusive building component selection methods suggest that decision makers might be confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of components to suit the needs of a specific IB project. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyse the selection of the IB systems, and to identify key selection criteria for major IB systems. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two surveys: a general survey and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first general survey aims to collect general views from IB experts and practitioners to identify the perceived critical selection criteria, while the AHP survey was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the perceived criteria in the general survey. Results generally suggest that each IB system was determined by a disparate set of selection criteria with different weightings. ‘Work efficiency’ is perceived to be most important core selection criterion for various IB systems, while ‘user comfort’, ‘safety’ and ‘cost effectiveness’ are also considered to be significant. Two sub-criteria, ‘reliability’ and ‘operating and maintenance costs’, are regarded as prime factors to be considered in selecting IB systems. The current study contributes to the industry and IB research in at least two aspects. First, it widens the understanding of the selection criteria, as well as their degree of importance, of the IB systems. It also adopts a multi-criteria AHP approach which is a new method to analyse and select the building systems in IB. Further research would investigate the inter-relationship amongst the selection criteria.
Resumo:
This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.
Resumo:
This document provides the findings of an international review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different countries and international organisations. Road assets are powerful drivers of economic development and social equity. They also have significant impacts on the natural and man-made environment. The traditional definition of asset management is “A systematic process of maintaining, upgrading and operating physical assets cost effectively. It combines engineering principles with sound business practices and economic theory and it provides tools to facilitate a more organised, logical approach to decision-making” (US Dept. of Transportation, 1999). In recent years, the concept has been broadened to cover the complexity of decision making, based on a wider variety of policy considerations as well as social and environmental issues rather than is covered by Benefit-Cost analysis and pure technical considerations. Current international practices are summarised in table 2. It was evident that Engineering-economic analysis methods are well advanced to support decision-making. A range of tools available supports performance predicting of road assets and associated cost/benefit in technical context. The need for considering triple plus one bottom line of social, environmental and economic as well as political factors in decision-making is well understood by road agencies around the world. The techniques used to incorporate these however, are limited. Most countries adopt a scoring method, a goal achievement matrix or information collected from surveys. The greater uncertainty associated with these non-quantitative factors has generally not been taken into consideration. There is a gap between the capacities of the decision-making support systems and the requirements from decision-makers to make more rational and transparent decisions. The challenges faced in developing an integrated decision making framework are both procedural and conceptual. In operational terms, the framework should be easy to be understood and employed. In philosophical terms, the framework should be able to deal with challenging issues, such as uncertainty, time frame, network effects, model changes, while integrating cost and non-cost values into the evaluation. The choice of evaluation techniques depends on the feature of the problem at hand, on the aims of the analysis, and on the underlying information base At different management levels, the complexity in considering social, environmental, economic and political factor in decision-making is different. At higher the strategic planning level, more non-cost factors are involved. The complexity also varies based on the scope of the investment proposals. Road agencies traditionally place less emphasis on evaluation of maintenance works. In some cases, social equity, safety, environmental issues have been used in maintenance project selection. However, there is not a common base for the applications.
Resumo:
This document provides the findings of a national review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different sate road authorities. The investment objectives of Australian road authorities are based on triple-bottom line considerations (social, environmental, economic and political). In some cases, comparing with some social considerations, such as regional economic development, equity, and access to pubic service etc., Benefit-Cost Ratio has limited influence on the decision-making. Australian road authorities have developed various decision support tools. Although Multi-Criteria Analysis has been preliminarily used in case by case study, pavement management systems, which are primarily based on Benefit Cost Analysis, are still the main decision support tool. This situation is not compatible with the triple-bottom line objectives. There is need to fill the gap between decision support tools and decision-making itself. Different decision criteria should be adopted based on the contents of the work. Additional decision criteria, which are able to address social, environmental and political impacts, are needed to develop or identify. Environmental issue plays a more and more important role in decision-making. However, the criteria and respective weights in decision-making process are yet to be clearly identified. Social and political impacts resulted from road infrastructure investment can be identified through Community Perceptions Survey. With accumulative data, prediction models, which are similar as pavement performance models, can be established. Using these models, the decision-makers are able to foresee the social and political consequences of investment alternatives.
Resumo:
Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.
Resumo:
The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.
Resumo:
The road and transport industry in Australia and overseas has come a long way to understanding the impact of road traffic noise on the urban environment. Most road authorities now have guidelines to help assess and manage the impact of road traffic noise on noise-sensitive areas and development. While several economic studies across Australia and overseas have tried to value the impact of noise on property prices, decision-makers investing in road traffic noise management strategies have relatively limited historic data and case studies to go on. The perceived success of a noise management strategy currently relies largely on community expectations at a given time, and is not necessarily based on the analysis of the costs and benefits, or the long-term viability and value to the community of the proposed treatment options. With changing trends in urban design, it is essential that the 'whole-of-life' costs and benefits of noise ameliorative treatment options and strategies be identified and made available for decisionmakers in future investment considerations. For this reason, CRC for Construction Innovation Australia funded a research project, Noise Management in Urban Environments to help decision-makers with future road traffic noise management investment decisions. RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) have conducted the research work, in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, ARUP Pty Ltd, and the Queensland University of Technology. The research has formed the basis for the development of a decision-support software tool, and helped collate technical and costing data for known noise amelioration treatment options. We intend that the decision support software tool (DST) should help an investment decision-maker to be better informed of suitable noise ameliorative treatment options on a project-by-project basis and identify likely costs and benefits associated with each of those options. This handbook has been prepared as a procedural guide for conducting a comparative assessment of noise ameliorative options. The handbook outlines the methodology and assumptions adopted in the decision-support framework for the investment decision-maker and user of the DST. The DST has been developed to provide an integrated user-friendly interface between road traffic noise modelling software, the relevant assessment criteria and the options analysis process. A user guide for the DST is incorporated in this handbook.
Resumo:
A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.
Resumo:
A study was conducted to examine the factorial validity of the Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, 1982), a 31-item self-report inventory designed to measure tendencies to use three major coping patterns identified in the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977): vigilance, hypervigilance, and defensive avoidance (procrastination, buck-passing, and rationalization). A sample of 2051 university students, comprising samples from Australia (n=262), New Zealand (n=260), the USA (n=475), Japan (n=359), Hong Kong (n=281) and Taiwan (n=414) was administered the DMQ. Factorial validity of the instrument was tested by confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL. Five different substantive models, representing different structural relationships between the decision-coping patterns had unsatisfactory fit to the data and could not be validated. A shortened instrument, containing 22 items, yielded a revised model comprising four identifiable factors-vigilance, hypervigilance, buck-passing, and procrastination. The revised model had adequate fit with data for each country sample and for the total sample, and was confirmed. It is recommended that the 22-item instrument, named the Melbourne DMQ, replace the Flinders DMQ for measurement of decision-coping patterns.