Submission to the External Independent Review of the United Nations Response to Allegations of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Other Serious Crimes by Members of Foreign Military Forces Not Under United Nations Command in the Central African Republic

In 2015 the UN Secretary-General established an External Independent Review to review how the United Nations has responded to allegations of child sexual exploitation and child sexual abuse, and to make recommendations concerning how the United Nations should respond to allegations in the future. This submission to the Review Panel draws on literature regarding children's rights, the nature of child sexual abuse, international instruments and policy, the nature of institutional child sexual abuse, and the CAR case itself. It makes recommendations for reform of UN protocols and procedures to better prevent child sexual abuse, and to improve responses to future occurrences.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Economic evaluation and catheter-related bloodstream infections

Catheter-related bloodstream infections are a serious problem. Many interventions reduce risk, and some have been evaluated in cost-effectiveness studies. We review the usefulness and quality of these economic studies. Evidence is incomplete, and data required to inform a coherent policy are missing. The cost-effectiveness studies are characterized by a lack of transparency, short time-horizons, and narrow economic perspectives. Data quality is low for some important model parameters. Authors of future economic evaluations should aim to model the complete policy and not just single interventions. They should be rigorous in developing the structure of the economic model, include all relevant economic outcomes, use a systematic approach for selecting data sources for model parameters, and propagate the effect of uncertainty in model parameters on conclusions. This will inform future data collection and improve our understanding of the economics of preventing these infections.

The economic rationale for infection control in Australian hospitals

The objective of the present study was to predict the economic consequences of healthcare-acquired infections arising among admissions to Australian acute care hospitals. A quantitative algorithm informed by epidemiological and economic data was developed. All acute care hospitals in Australia were included in the study and the participants included all admissions to general medical and general surgical specialties. The main outcome measures were the numbers of cases of healthcare-acquired infection and bed days lost annually. It was estimated that there are 175 153 (95% credible interval 155 911 : 195 168) cases of healthcare-acquired infection among admissions to Australian hospitals annually, and the extra stay in hospital to treat symptoms accounts for 854 289 bed days (95% credible interval 645 091 : 1 096 244). If rates were reduced by 1%, then 150 158 bed days would be released for alternative uses. This would allow ~38 500 new admissions. Healthcare-acquired infections in patients cause bed blocks in Australian hospitals. The cost-effectiveness of hospital services might be improved by allocating more resources to infection control, releasing beds and allowing new admissions. There exists an opportunity to improve the efficiency of the Australian health care system.

The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

FIA : an open foresic integration architecture for composing digital evidence

The analysis and value of digital evidence in an investigation has been the domain of discourse in the digital forensic community for several years. While many works have considered different approaches to model digital evidence, a comprehensive understanding of the process of merging different evidence items recovered during a forensic analysis is still a distant dream. With the advent of modern technologies, pro-active measures are integral to keeping abreast of all forms of cyber crimes and attacks. This paper motivates the need to formalize the process of analyzing digital evidence from multiple sources simultaneously. In this paper, we present the forensic integration architecture (FIA) which provides a framework for abstracting the evidence source and storage format information from digital evidence and explores the concept of integrating evidence information from multiple sources. The FIA architecture identifies evidence information from multiple sources that enables an investigator to build theories to reconstruct the past. FIA is hierarchically composed of multiple layers and adopts a technology independent approach. FIA is also open and extensible making it simple to adapt to technological changes. We present a case study using a hypothetical car theft case to demonstrate the concepts and illustrate the value it brings into the field.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Economics and preventing healthcare acquired infection

The evolution of organisms that cause healthcare acquired infections (HAI) puts extra stress on hospitals already struggling with rising costs and demands for greater productivity and cost containment. Infection control can save scarce resources, lives, and possibly a facility’s reputation, but statistics and epidemiology are not always sufficient to make the case for the added expense. Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection presents a rigorous analytic framework for dealing with this increasingly serious problem. ----- Engagingly written for the economics non-specialist, and brimming with tables, charts, and case examples, the book lays out the concepts of economic analysis in clear, real-world terms so that infection control professionals or infection preventionists will gain competence in developing analyses of their own, and be confident in the arguments they present to decision-makers. The authors: ----- Ground the reader in the basic principles and language of economics. ----- Explain the role of health economists in general and in terms of infection prevention and control. ----- Introduce the concept of economic appraisal, showing how to frame the problem, evaluate and use data, and account for uncertainty. ----- Review methods of estimating and interpreting the costs and health benefits of HAI control programs and prevention methods. ----- Walk the reader through a published economic appraisal of an infection reduction program. ----- Identify current and emerging applications of economics in infection control. ---- Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection is a unique resource for practitioners and researchers in infection prevention, control and healthcare economics. It offers valuable alternate perspective for professionals in health services research, healthcare epidemiology, healthcare management, and hospital administration. ----- Written for: Professionals and researchers in infection control, health services research, hospital epidemiology, healthcare economics, healthcare management, hospital administration; Association of Professionals in Infection Control (APIC), Society for Healthcare Epidemiologists of America (SHEA)

Early outcomes of patella resurfacing in total knee arthroplasty

Background Patella resurfacing in total knee arthroplasty is a contentious issue. The literature suggests that resurfacing of the patella is based on surgeon preference, and little is known about the role and timing of resurfacing and how this affects outcomes. Methods We analyzed 134,799 total knee arthroplasties using data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Hazards ratios (HRs) were used to compare rates of early revision between patella resurfacing at the primary procedure (the resurfacing group, R) and primary arthroplasty without resurfacing (no-resurfacing group, NR). We also analyzed the outcomes of NR that were revised for isolated patella addition. Results At 5 years, the R group showed a lower revision rate than the NR group: cumulative per cent revision (CPR) 3.1% and 4.0%, respectively (HR = 0.75, p < 0.001). Revisions for patellofemoral pain were more common in the NR group (17%) than in the R group (1%), and “patella only” revisions were more common in the NR group (29%) than in the R group (6%). Non-resurfaced knees revised for isolated patella addition had a higher revision rate than patella resurfacing at the primary procedure, with a 4-year CPR of 15% and 2.8%, respectively (HR = 4.1, p < 0.001). Interpretation Rates of early revision of primary total knees were higher when the patella was not resurfaced, and suggest that surgeons may be inclined to resurface later if there is patellofemoral pain. However, 15% of non-resurfaced knees revised for patella addition are re-revised by 4 years. Our results suggest an early beneficial outcome for patella resurfacing at primary arthroplasty based on revision rates up to 5 years.

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to reduce emergency re-admissions to hospital among older patients

Background. The objective is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that reduces hospital readmission among older people at high risk. A cost-effectiveness model to estimate the costs and health benefits of the intervention was implemented. Methodology/Principal Findings. The model used data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in an Australian tertiary metropolitan hospital. Participants were acute medical admissions aged >65 years with at least one risk factor for readmission: multiple comorbidities, impaired functionality, aged >75 years, 30 recent multiple admissions, poor social support, history of depression. The intervention was a comprehensive nursing and physiotherapy assessment and an individually tailored program of exercise strategies and nurse home visits with telephone follow-up; commencing in hospital and continuing following discharge for 24 weeks. The change to cost outcomes, including the costs of implementing the intervention and all subsequent use of health care services, and, the change to health benefits, represented by quality adjusted life years, were estimated for the intervention as compared to existing practice. The mean change to total costs and quality 38 adjusted life years for an average individual over 24 weeks participating in the intervention were: cost savings of $333 (95% Bayesian credible interval $-1,932:1,282) and 0.118 extra quality adjusted life years (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.1:0.136). The mean net41 monetary-benefit per individual for the intervention group compared to the usual care condition was $7,907 (95% Bayesian credible interval $5,959:$9,995) for the 24 week period. Conclusions/Significance. The estimation model that describes this intervention predicts cost savings and improved health outcomes. A decision to remain with existing practices causes unnecessary costs and reduced health. Decision makers should consider adopting this 46 program for elderly hospitalised patients.