Modelling urban public transit users' route choice behaviour: review and outlook

This paper reviews the main development of approaches to modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour from 1960s to the present. The approaches reviewed include the early heuristic studies on finding the least cost transit route and all-or-nothing transit assignment, the bus common line problem and corresponding network representation methods, the disaggregate discrete choice models which are based on random utility maximization assumptions, the deterministic use equilibrium and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models using either frequency or schedule based network formulation. In addition to reviewing past outcomes, this paper also gives an outlook into the possible future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviour. Based on the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems in an urban road area, this paper points out that it is rewarding for transit route choice research to draw inspiration from the intellectual outcomes out of the road area. Particularly, in light of the recent advancement of modelling motorists’ complex road route choice behaviour, this paper advocates that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the complexities of the problem.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered intervention for physical activity and diet

Background: Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a “Usual Care” (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). Conclusions/Significance: This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the ‘Usual Care’ brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile.

Modelling sustainable and optimal solutions for building services integration in early architectural design : confronting the software and professional interoperability deficit

Decisions made in the earliest stage of architectural design have the greatest impact on the construction, lifecycle cost and environmental footprint of buildings. Yet the building services, one of the largest contributors to cost, complexity, and environmental impact, are rarely considered as an influence on the design at this crucial stage. In order for efficient and environmentally sensitive built environment outcomes to be achieved, a closer collaboration between architects and services engineers is required at the outset of projects. However, in practice, there are a variety of obstacles impeding this transition towards an integrated design approach. This paper firstly presents a critical review of the existing barriers to multidisciplinary design. It then examines current examples of best practice in the building industry to highlight the collaborative strategies being employed and their benefits to the design process. Finally, it discusses a case study project to identify directions for further research.

Modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour : a review and outlook

Public transport is one of the key promoters of sustainable urban transport. To encourage and increase public transport patronage it is important to investigate the route choice behaviours of urban public transit users. This chapter reviews the main developments of modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviours in a historical perspective, from the 1960s to the present time. The approaches re- viewed for this study include the early heuristic studies on finding the least-cost transit route and all-or- nothing transit assignment, the bus common lines problem, the disaggregate discrete choice models, the deterministic and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models. This chapter also provides an outlook for the future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviours. Through the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems, this chapter advocates that transit route choice research should draw inspiration from the research outcomes from the road area, and that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the behavioural complexities.

Modelling and solving train scheduling problems under capacity constraints

Many large coal mining operations in Australia rely heavily on the rail network to transport coal from mines to coal terminals at ports for shipment. Over the last few years, due to the fast growing demand, the coal rail network is becoming one of the worst industrial bottlenecks in Australia. As a result, this provides great incentives for pursuing better optimisation and control strategies for the operation of the whole rail transportation system under network and terminal capacity constraints. This PhD research aims to achieve a significant efficiency improvement in a coal rail network on the basis of the development of standard modelling approaches and generic solution techniques. Generally, the train scheduling problem can be modelled as a Blocking Parallel- Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (BPMJSS) problem. In a BPMJSS model for train scheduling, trains and sections respectively are synonymous with jobs and machines and an operation is regarded as the movement/traversal of a train across a section. To begin, an improved shifting bottleneck procedure algorithm combined with metaheuristics has been developed to efficiently solve the Parallel-Machine Job- Shop Scheduling (PMJSS) problems without the blocking conditions. Due to the lack of buffer space, the real-life train scheduling should consider blocking or hold-while-wait constraints, which means that a track section cannot release and must hold a train until the next section on the routing becomes available. As a consequence, the problem has been considered as BPMJSS with the blocking conditions. To develop efficient solution techniques for BPMJSS, extensive studies on the nonclassical scheduling problems regarding the various buffer conditions (i.e. blocking, no-wait, limited-buffer, unlimited-buffer and combined-buffer) have been done. In this procedure, an alternative graph as an extension of the classical disjunctive graph is developed and specially designed for the non-classical scheduling problems such as the blocking flow-shop scheduling (BFSS), no-wait flow-shop scheduling (NWFSS), and blocking job-shop scheduling (BJSS) problems. By exploring the blocking characteristics based on the alternative graph, a new algorithm called the topological-sequence algorithm is developed for solving the non-classical scheduling problems. To indicate the preeminence of the proposed algorithm, we compare it with two known algorithms (i.e. Recursive Procedure and Directed Graph) in the literature. Moreover, we define a new type of non-classical scheduling problem, called combined-buffer flow-shop scheduling (CBFSS), which covers four extreme cases: the classical FSS (FSS) with infinite buffer, the blocking FSS (BFSS) with no buffer, the no-wait FSS (NWFSS) and the limited-buffer FSS (LBFSS). After exploring the structural properties of CBFSS, we propose an innovative constructive algorithm named the LK algorithm to construct the feasible CBFSS schedule. Detailed numerical illustrations for the various cases are presented and analysed. By adjusting only the attributes in the data input, the proposed LK algorithm is generic and enables the construction of the feasible schedules for many types of non-classical scheduling problems with different buffer constraints. Inspired by the shifting bottleneck procedure algorithm for PMJSS and characteristic analysis based on the alternative graph for non-classical scheduling problems, a new constructive algorithm called the Feasibility Satisfaction Procedure (FSP) is proposed to obtain the feasible BPMJSS solution. A real-world train scheduling case is used for illustrating and comparing the PMJSS and BPMJSS models. Some real-life applications including considering the train length, upgrading the track sections, accelerating a tardy train and changing the bottleneck sections are discussed. Furthermore, the BPMJSS model is generalised to be a No-Wait Blocking Parallel- Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (NWBPMJSS) problem for scheduling the trains with priorities, in which prioritised trains such as express passenger trains are considered simultaneously with non-prioritised trains such as freight trains. In this case, no-wait conditions, which are more restrictive constraints than blocking constraints, arise when considering the prioritised trains that should traverse continuously without any interruption or any unplanned pauses because of the high cost of waiting during travel. In comparison, non-prioritised trains are allowed to enter the next section immediately if possible or to remain in a section until the next section on the routing becomes available. Based on the FSP algorithm, a more generic algorithm called the SE algorithm is developed to solve a class of train scheduling problems in terms of different conditions in train scheduling environments. To construct the feasible train schedule, the proposed SE algorithm consists of many individual modules including the feasibility-satisfaction procedure, time-determination procedure, tune-up procedure and conflict-resolve procedure algorithms. To find a good train schedule, a two-stage hybrid heuristic algorithm called the SE-BIH algorithm is developed by combining the constructive heuristic (i.e. the SE algorithm) and the local-search heuristic (i.e. the Best-Insertion- Heuristic algorithm). To optimise the train schedule, a three-stage algorithm called the SE-BIH-TS algorithm is developed by combining the tabu search (TS) metaheuristic with the SE-BIH algorithm. Finally, a case study is performed for a complex real-world coal rail network under network and terminal capacity constraints. The computational results validate that the proposed methodology would be very promising because it can be applied as a fundamental tool for modelling and solving many real-world scheduling problems.

Preliminary modelling outcomes : calculation of holding costs in greenfield residential development

Many of the costs associated with greenfield residential development are apparent and tangible. For example, regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others are all relatively easily identified since they represent actual costs incurred at a given point in time. However, identification of holding costs are not always immediately evident since by contrast they characteristically lack visibility. One reason for this is that, for the most part, they are typically assessed over time in an ever-changing environment. In addition, wide variations exist in development pipeline components: they are typically represented from anywhere between a two and over sixteen years time period - even if located within the same geographical region. Determination of the starting and end points, with regards holding cost computation, can also prove problematic. Furthermore, the choice between application of prevailing inflation, or interest rates, or a combination of both over time, adds further complexity. Although research is emerging in these areas, a review of the literature reveals attempts to identify holding cost components are limited. Their quantification (in terms of relative weight or proportionate cost to a development project) is even less apparent; in fact, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, it may be demonstrated that ambiguities exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Yet their impact on housing affordability is widely acknowledged to be profound, with their quantification potentially maximising the opportunities for delivering affordable housing. This paper seeks to build on earlier investigations into those elements related to holding costs, providing theoretical modelling of the size of their impact - specifically on the end user. At this point the research is reliant upon quantitative data sets, however additional qualitative analysis (not included here) will be relevant to account for certain variations between expectations and actual outcomes achieved by developers. Although this research stops short of cross-referencing with a regional or international comparison study, an improved understanding of the relationship between holding costs, regulatory charges, and housing affordability results.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Mathematical modelling of chronic wound healing

Chronicwounds fail to proceed through an orderly process to produce anatomic and functional integrity and are a significant socioeconomic problem. There is much debate about the best way to treat these wounds. In this thesis we review earlier mathematical models of angiogenesis and wound healing. Many of these models assume a chemotactic response of endothelial cells, the primary cell type involved in angiogenesis. Modelling this chemotactic response leads to a system of advection-dominated partial differential equations and we review numerical methods to solve these equations and argue that the finite volume method with flux limiting is best-suited to these problems. One treatment of chronic wounds that is shrouded with controversy is hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT). There is currently no conclusive data showing that HBOT can assist chronic wound healing, but there has been some clinical success. In this thesis we use several mathematical models of wound healing to investigate the use of hyperbaric oxygen therapy to assist the healing process - a novel threespecies model and a more complex six-species model. The second model accounts formore of the biological phenomena but does not lend itself tomathematical analysis. Bothmodels are then used tomake predictions about the efficacy of hyperbaric oxygen therapy and the optimal treatment protocol. Based on our modelling, we are able to make several predictions including that intermittent HBOT will assist chronic wound healing while normobaric oxygen is ineffective in treating such wounds, treatment should continue until healing is complete and finding the right protocol for an individual patient is crucial if HBOT is to be effective. Analysis of the models allows us to derive constraints for the range of HBOT protocols that will stimulate healing, which enables us to predict which patients are more likely to have a positive response to HBOT and thus has the potential to assist in improving both the success rate and thus the cost-effectiveness of this therapy.

Energy and cost savings from pipe insulation on domestic, pumped storage (split), solar water heating systems in Australia and New Zealand

Appropriate pipe insulation on domestic, pumped storage (split), solar water heating systems forms an integral part of energy conservation measures of well engineered systems. However, its importance over the life of the system is often overlooked. This study outlines the findings of computer modelling to quantify the energy and cost savings by using pipe insulation between the collector and storage tank. System sizes of 270 Litre storage tank, together with either selectively surfaced, flat plate collectors (4m2 area), or 30 evacuated tube collectors, were used. Insulation thicknesses of 13mm and 15mm, pipe runs both ways of 10, 15 and 20 metres and both electric and gas boosting of systems were all considered. The TRNSYS program was used to model the system performance at a representative city in each of the 6 climate zones for Australia and New Zealand, according to AS/NZS4234 – Heat Water Systems – Calculation of energy consumption and the ORER RECs calculation method. The results show:  Energy savings from pipe insulation are very significant, even in mild climates such as Rockhampton. Across all climates zones, savings ranged from 0.16 to 3.5GJ per system per year, or about 2 to 23 percent of the annual load.  There is very little advantage in increasing the insulation thickness from 13 to 15mm. For electricity at 19c/kWh and gas at 2 c/MJ, cost savings of between $27 and $100 per year are achieved across the climate zones. Both energy and cost savings would increase in colder climates with increased system size, solar contribution and water temperatures.  The pipe insulation substantially improves the solar contribution (or fraction) and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), as well as giving small savings in circulating pump running costs in milder climates. Solar contribution increased by up to 23 percent points and RECs by over 7 in some cases.  The study highlights the need to install and maintain the integrity of appropriate pipe insulation on solar water heaters over their life time in Australia and New Zealand.

Information sharing with key suppliers : a transaction cost theory perspective

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explain variations in discretionary information shared between buyers and key suppliers. The paper also aims to examine how the extent of information shared affects buyers’ performance in terms of resource usage, output, and flexibility. ----- ----- Design/methodology/approach: The data for the paper comprise 221 Finnish and Swedish non-service companies obtained through a mail survey. The hypothesized relationships were tested using partial least squares modelling with reflective and formative constructs.----- ----- Findings: The results of the study suggest that (environmental and demand) uncertainty and interdependency can to some degree explain the extent of information shared between a buyer and key supplier. Furthermore, information sharing improves buyers’ performance with respect to resource usage, output, and flexibility.----- ----- Research limitations/implications: A limitation to the paper relates to the data, which only included buyers.Abetter approach would have been to collect data from both, buyers and key suppliers. Practical implications – Companies face a wide range of supply chain solutions that enable and encourage collaboration across organizations. This paper suggests a more selective and balanced approach toward adopting the solutions offered as the benefits are contingent on a number of factors such as uncertainty. Also, the risks of information sharing are far too high for a one size fits all approach.----- ----- Originality/value: The paper illustrates the applicability of transaction cost theory to the contemporary era of e-commerce. With this finding, transaction cost economics can provide a valuable lens with which to view and interpret interorganizational information sharing, a topic that has received much attention in the recent years.

A Krylov-based finite state projection algorithm for solving the chemical master equation arising in the discrete modelling of biological systems

Biochemical reactions underlying genetic regulation are often modelled as a continuous-time, discrete-state, Markov process, and the evolution of the associated probability density is described by the so-called chemical master equation (CME). However the CME is typically difficult to solve, since the state-space involved can be very large or even countably infinite. Recently a finite state projection method (FSP) that truncates the state-space was suggested and shown to be effective in an example of a model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch. However in this example, both the model and the final time at which the solution was computed, were relatively small. Presented here is a Krylov FSP algorithm based on a combination of state-space truncation and inexact matrix-vector product routines. This allows larger-scale models to be studied and solutions for larger final times to be computed in a realistic execution time. Additionally the new method computes the solution at intermediate times at virtually no extra cost, since it is derived from Krylov-type methods for computing matrix exponentials. For the purpose of comparison the new algorithm is applied to the model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch, where the original FSP was first demonstrated. Also the method is applied to a more sophisticated model of regulated transcription. Numerical results indicate that the new approach is significantly faster and extendable to larger biological models.

Cost efficiency v quality service : using CHAT as a tool for understanding change and transformation in work practices

This chapter provides an analysis of feedback from key stakeholders, collected as part of a research project, on the problems and tensions evident in the collective work practices of learning advisers employed in learning assistance services at an Australian metropolitan university (Peach, 2003). The term 'learning assistance' is used in the Australian higher education sector generally to refer to student support services that include assistance with academic writing and other study skills. The aim of the study was to help learning advisers and other key stakeholders develop a better understanding of the work activity with a view to using this understanding to generate improvements in service provision. Over twenty problems and associated tensions were identified through stakeholder feedback however the focus of this chapter is the analysis of tensions related to a cluster of problems referred to as cost-efficiency versus quality service. Theoretical modelling derived from the tools made available through cultural historical activity theory and expansive visibilsation (Engestrom and Miettinen, 1999) and excerpts from data are used to illustrate how different understandings of the purpose of learning assistance services impacts on the work practices of learning advisers and creates problems and tensions in relation to the type of service available (including use of technology),level of service available, and learning adviser workload.

Determinants of driver vs. second row occupant posture modelling

Digital human modeling (DHM), as a convenient and cost-effective tool, is increasingly incorporated into product and workplace design. In product design, it is predominantly used for the development of driver-vehicle systems. Most digital human modeling software tools, such as JACK, RAMSIS and DELMIA HUMANBUILDER provide functions to predict posture and positions for drivers with selected anthropometry according to SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) Recommended Practices and other ergonomics guidelines. However, few studies have presented 2nd row passenger postural information, and digital human modeling of these passenger postures cannot be performed directly using the existing driver posture prediction functions. In this paper, the significant studies related to occupant posture and modeling were reviewed and a framework of determinants of driver vs. 2nd row occupant posture modeling was extracted. The determinants which are regarded as input factors for posture modeling include target population anthropometry, vehicle package geometry and seat design variables as well as task definitions. The differences between determinants of driver and 2nd row occupant posture models are significant, as driver posture modeling is primarily based on the position of the foot on the accelerator pedal (accelerator actuation point AAP, accelerator heel point AHP) and the hands on the steering wheel (steering wheel centre point A-Point). The objectives of this paper are aimed to investigate those differences between driver and passenger posture, and to supplement the existing parametric model for occupant posture prediction. With the guide of the framework, the associated input parameters of occupant digital human models of both driver and second row occupant will be identified. Beyond the existing occupant posture models, for example a driver posture model could be modified to predict second row occupant posture, by adjusting the associated input parameters introduced in this paper. This study combines results from a literature review and the theoretical modeling stage of a second row passenger posture prediction model project.

A framework for cost-aware process management : generation of accurate and timely management accounting cost reports

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.

Acquisition modelling for heavy engineering assets in mining industry

Each year, organizations in Australian mining industry (asset intensive industry) spend substantial amount of capital (A$86 billion in 2009-10) (Statistics, 2011) in acquiring engineering assets. Engineering assets are put to use in operations to generate value. Different functions (departments) of an organization have different expectations and requirements from each of the engineering asset e.g. return on investment, reliability, efficiency, maintainability, low cost of running the asset, low or nil environmental impact and easy of disposal, potential salvage value etc. Assets are acquired from suppliers or built by service providers and or internally. The process of acquiring assets is supported by procurement function. One of the most costly mistakes that organizations can make is acquiring the inappropriate or non-conforming assets that do not fit the purpose. The root cause of acquiring non confirming assets belongs to incorrect acquisition decision and the process of making decisions. It is very important that an asset acquisition decision is based on inputs and multi-criteria of each function within the organization which has direct or indirect impact on the acquisition, utilization, maintenance and disposal of the asset. Literature review shows that currently there is no comprehensive process framework and tool available to evaluate the inclusiveness and breadth of asset acquisition decisions that are taken in the Mining Organizations. This thesis discusses various such criteria and inputs that need to be considered and evaluated from various functions within the organization while making the asset acquisition decision. Criteria from functions such as finance, production, maintenance, logistics, procurement, asset management, environment health and safety, material management, training and development etc. need to be considered to make an effective and coherent asset acquisition decision. The thesis also discusses a tool that is developed to be used in the multi-criteria and cross functional acquisition decision making. The development of multi-criteria and cross functional inputs based decision framework and tool which utilizes that framework to formulate cross functional and integrated asset acquisition decisions are the contribution of this research.