Arterial travel time estimation : revisiting the classical procedure

Travel time is an important network performance measure and it quantifies congestion in a manner easily understood by all transport users. In urban networks, travel time estimation is challenging due to number of reasons such as, fluctuations in traffic flow due to traffic signals, significant flow to/from mid link sinks/sources, etc. The classical analytical procedure utilizes cumulative plots at upstream and downstream locations for estimating travel time between the two locations. In this paper, we discuss about the issues and challenges with classical analytical procedure such as its vulnerability to non conservation of flow between the two locations. The complexity with respect to exit movement specific travel time is discussed. Recently, we have developed a methodology utilising classical procedure to estimate average travel time and its statistic on urban links (Bhaskar, Chung et al. 2010). Where, detector, signal and probe vehicle data is fused. In this paper we extend the methodology for route travel time estimation and test its performance using simulation. The originality is defining cumulative plots for each exit turning movement utilising historical database which is self updated after each estimation. The performance is also compared with a method solely based on probe (Probe-only). The performance of the proposed methodology has been found insensitive to different route flow, with average accuracy of more than 94% given a probe per estimation interval which is more than 5% increment in accuracy with respect to Probe-only method.

Blood cultures for assessment of postoperative fever in arthroplasty patients

Postoperative fever in arthroplasty patients is common. The value of diagnostic workup of fever in this instance is of questionable utility. Studies have shown that blood cultures in this scenario add little to clinical management, but sample sizes have been small and the use of blood cultures in this setting continues. This study aimed to examine the value of blood cultures in the assessment of postoperative fever in a large arthroplasty population. The medical records of 101 patients who had 141 blood culture sets taken during a 2-year period were retrospectively analyzed. Of the 141 blood culture sets, only 2 returned positive results. These were both thought to be as a result of skin contamination at the time of venipuncture. No infectious sequelae occurred in either patient. We conclude that blood cultures have no role to play in the assessment of the febrile, otherwise asymptomatic arthroplasty patient in the early postoperative period.

Achieving quality improvement in the mask manufacturing industry by using Six Sigma technique

The Six Sigma technique is one of the quality management strategies and is utilised for improving the quality and productivity in the manufacturing process. It is inspired by the two major project methodologies of Deming’s "Plan – Do – Check – Act (PDCA)" Cycle which consists of DMAIC and DMADV. Those two methodologies are comprised of five phases. The DMAIC project methodology will be comprehensively used in this research. In brief, DMAIC is utilised for improving the existing manufacturing process and it involves the phases Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, and Control. Mask industry has become a significant industry in today’s society since the outbreak of some serious diseases such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), bird flu, influenza, swine flu and hay fever. Protecting the respiratory system, then, has become the fundamental requirement for preventing respiratory deceases. Mask is the most appropriate and protective product inasmuch as it is effective in protecting the respiratory tract and resisting the virus infection through air. In order to satisfy various customers’ requirements, thousands of mask products are designed in the market. Moreover, masks are also widely used in industries including medical industries, semi-conductor industries, food industries, traditional manufacturing, and metal industries. Notwithstanding the quality of masks have become the prioritisations since they are used to prevent dangerous diseases and safeguard people, the quality improvement technique are of very high significance in mask industry. The purpose of this research project is firstly to investigate the current quality control practices in a mask industry, then, to explore the feasibility of using Six Sigma technique in that industry, and finally, to implement the Six Sigma technique in the case company to develop and evaluate the product quality process. This research mainly investigates the quality problems of musk industry and effectiveness of six sigma technique in musk industry with the United Excel Enterprise Corporation (UEE) Company as a case company. The DMAIC project methodology in the Six Sigma technique is adopted and developed in this research. This research makes significant contribution to knowledge. The main results contribute to the discovering the root causes of quality problems in a mask industry. Secondly, the company was able to increase not only acceptance rate but quality level by utilising the Six Sigma technique. Hence, utilising the Six Sigma technique could increase the production capacity of the company. Third, the Six Sigma technique is necessary to be extensively modified to improve the quality control in the mask industry. The impact of the Six Sigma technique on the overall performance in the business organisation should be further explored in future research.

Quantum key distribution in the classical authenticated key exchange framework

Key establishment is a crucial primitive for building secure channels in a multi-party setting. Without quantum mechanics, key establishment can only be done under the assumption that some computational problem is hard. Since digital communication can be easily eavesdropped and recorded, it is important to consider the secrecy of information anticipating future algorithmic and computational discoveries which could break the secrecy of past keys, violating the secrecy of the confidential channel. Quantum key distribution (QKD) can be used generate secret keys that are secure against any future algorithmic or computational improvements. QKD protocols still require authentication of classical communication, although existing security proofs of QKD typically assume idealized authentication. It is generally considered folklore that QKD when used with computationally secure authentication is still secure against an unbounded adversary, provided the adversary did not break the authentication during the run of the protocol. We describe a security model for quantum key distribution extending classical authenticated key exchange (AKE) security models. Using our model, we characterize the long-term security of the BB84 QKD protocol with computationally secure authentication against an eventually unbounded adversary. By basing our model on traditional AKE models, we can more readily compare the relative merits of various forms of QKD and existing classical AKE protocols. This comparison illustrates in which types of adversarial environments different quantum and classical key agreement protocols can be secure.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Blood cultures for evaluation of early postoperative fever after femoral neck fracture surgery

PURPOSE. To evaluate the utility of blood cultures in the assessment of early postoperative fever in hip fracture patients with no other indicators of sepsis. METHODS. 101 blood cultures were drawn on postoperative days 0 to 5 to investigate 84 febrile episodes in 31 women and 30 men (mean age, 80 years) whose body temperature measured via the tympanic route was ≥38ºC. Culture results of these 61 patients were divided into culture-positive and culture-negative groups for comparison. RESULTS. Of the 101 blood cultures, only 2 were positive: one was obtained 5 days after dynamic hip screw fixation, and the other 4 days after hemiarthroplasty. Both blood cultures grew coagulase-negative staphylococcal species, which were deemed to be skin contaminants not requiring change of patient management. 44 of these patients were treated with oral or intravenous antibiotics for a period of time. CONCLUSION. The risk of bacteraemia in patients with postoperative fever but no other symptoms of infection is low. Routine procurement of blood cultures in such patients is ineffective and of limited utility.

Impact of Wolbachia on infection with chikungunya and yellow fever viruses in the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti

Incidence of disease due to dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and yellow fever (YFV) viruses is increasing in many parts of the world. The viruses are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti, a highly domesticated mosquito species that is notoriously difficult to control. When transinfected into Ae. aegypti, the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia has recently been shown to inhibit replication of DENVs, CHIKV, malaria parasites and filarial nematodes, providing a potentially powerful biocontrol strategy for human pathogens. Because the extent of pathogen reduction can be influenced by the strain of bacterium, we examined whether the wMel strain of Wolbachia influenced CHIKV and YFV infection in Ae. aegypti. Following exposure to viremic blood meals, CHIKV infection and dissemination rates were significantly reduced in mosquitoes with the wMel strain of Wolbachia compared to Wolbachia-uninfected controls. However, similar rates of infection and dissemination were observed in wMel infected and non-infected Ae. aegypti when intrathoracic inoculation was used to deliver virus. YFV infection, dissemination and replication were similar in wMel-infected and control mosquitoes following intrathoracic inoculations. In contrast, mosquitoes with the wMelPop strain of Wolbachia showed at least a 10(4) times reduction in YFV RNA copies compared to controls. The extent of reduction in virus infection depended on Wolbachia strain, titer and strain of the virus, and mode of exposure. Although originally proposed for dengue biocontrol, our results indicate a Wolbachia-based strategy also holds considerable promise for YFV and CHIKV suppression.

Fever pitch

Queensland Theatre Company's season-opening production is a double bill: two one-person plays, two hours to pitch them and two dynamic actors (Hugh Parker and Barbara Lowing). Peter Houghton's works The Pitch and The China Incident caper somewhere in between stand-up comedy and Yes, Prime Minister. Both plays are about "double guessing the bullshit'', in the frenzied worlds of two success compulsives: Walter and Bea.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

Dengue fever viral exposure rates among blood donors during outbreaks in North Queensland

Introduction: Dengue poses a problem for safe transfusion of blood components with confirmed reports of transfusion-transmission in Hong Kong and Singapore. The largest outbreak in 50 years occurred in North Queensland during 2008/2009 with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Cairns and Townsville. During this outbreak, supplementary questioning for all donors was implemented, and fresh components were not manufactured from at risk donors. We aim to determine the seroprevalence of dengue exposure in this population during this epidemic. Methods: Samples were collected from blood donors during the 2008/2009 epidemic and 3 months after the last confirmed case. These samples were tested for anti-Dengue IgM, IgG and NS1 antigen with commercially available ELISA based assay kits from PanBio. Results: Initial analyses revealed 2.7% of samples from deferred donors were IgM repeat reactive. Of these, 16% were also positive for anti-dengue IgG, while none of these were positive for the NS1 viral antigen. However, two NS1 positives were found in samples collected from deferred donors. Conclusions: This initial analysis represents recent and cumulative past exposure in a presumed asymptomatic population, and will provide documentation of the rate of asymptomatic dengue infection during the epidemic. This data can also be used to assess the risk of dengue becoming endemic in North Queensland given that the mosquito vector is established in this region.

Fever management in children : Vietnamese parents' and paediatric nurses' knowledge, beliefs and practices

This thesis comprised two studies: an exploratory study and a cross-sectional survey, guided by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. It explored parents' and paediatric nurses' knowledge, beliefs and practices about fever management in Vietnam. The research highlights the determinants of parents' and nurses' intentions to manage childhood fever which can be targeted for future interventions to integrate latest evidence-based practices.

Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Objective:  To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan). Methods:  We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000–2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software. Results:  Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000–2002, 2003–2005 and 2006–2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade. Conclusion:  There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.

Epidemiologic features of severe fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in China, 2011-2012

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging vector-borne disease, is caused by a novel bunyavirus belonging to the genus Phlebovirus [1, 2]. SFTS infections can be life-threatening and are characterized by sudden onset of fever, thrombocytopenia, gastrointestinal symptoms, and leukocytopenia. The tick Haemaphysalis longicornis is generally considered to be the vector of SFTS, which is widely distributed in China [2]. Person-to-person transmission through direct contact with contaminated blood has also been reported as a possible means of SFTS transmission [3–5]. Currently, there is no specific treatment other than supportive care [6]...

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.