New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Statistics of tricoherence

Statistics of the estimates of tricoherence are obtained analytically for nonlinear harmonic random processes with known true tricoherence. Expressions are presented for the bias, variance, and probability distributions of estimates of tricoherence as functions of the true tricoherence and the number of realizations averaged in the estimates. The expressions are applicable to arbitrary higher order coherence and arbitrary degree of interaction between modes. Theoretical results are compared with those obtained from numerical simulations of nonlinear harmonic random processes. Estimation of true values of tricoherence given observed values is also discussed

Implementation of ICD-11... perspectives from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

As the development of ICD-11 progresses, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is beginning to consider what will be required to successfully implement the new version of the classification. This paper will present early thoughts on the following: building understanding amongst the user community of upcoming changes and the implications of those changes; the need for training of coders and data users; development of analytical methods and conduct of comparability studies; processes to test, accept and implement new or updated coding software; assessment of coding quality; changes to data analyses and reporting processes; updates to regular publications; and assessing the resources required for successful implementation.

MHD natural convection flow from an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder under consideration of temperature dependent viscosity

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) natural convection laminar flow from an iso-thermal horizontal circular cylinder immersed in a fluid with viscosity proportional to a linear function of temperature will be discussed with numerical simulations. The governing boundary layer equations are transformed into a non-dimensional form and the resulting nonlinear system of partial differential equa-tions are reduced to convenient form, which are solved numerically by two very efficient methods, namely, (i) Implicit finite difference method together with Keller box scheme and (ii) Direct numerical scheme. Numerical results are presented by velocity and temperature distributions of the fluid as well as heat transfer characteristics, namely the shearing stress and the local heat transfer rate in terms of the local skin-friction coefficient and the local Nusselt number for a wide range of magnetohydrodynamic parameter, viscosity-variation parameter and viscous dissipation parameter. MHD flow in this geometry with temperature dependent viscosity is absent in the literature. The results obtained from the numerical simulations have been veri-fied by two methodologies.

Understanding evaluation of learning support in mathematics and statistics

With rapid and continuing growth of learning support initiatives in mathematics and statistics found in many parts of the world, and with the likelihood that this trend will continue, there is a need to ensure that robust and coherent measures are in place to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives. The nature of learning support brings challenges for measurement and analysis of its effects. After briefly reviewing the purpose, rationale for, and extent of current provision, this article provides a framework for those working in learning support to think about how their efforts can be evaluated. It provides references and specific examples of how workers in this field are collecting, analysing and reporting their findings. The framework is used to structure evaluation in terms of usage of facilities, resources and services provided, and also in terms of improvements in performance of the students and staff who engage with them. Very recent developments have started to address the effects of learning support on the development of deeper approaches to learning, the affective domain and the development of communities of practice of both learners and teachers. This article intends to be a stimulus to those who work in mathematics and statistics support to gather even richer, more valuable, forms of data. It provides a 'toolkit' for those interested in evaluation of learning support and closes by referring to an on-line resource being developed to archive the growing body of evidence. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Ingroup and role identity influences on the initiation and maintenance of students' voluntary attendance at peer study sessions for statistics

Background: Although class attendance is linked to academic performance, questions remain about what determines students’ decisions to attend or miss class. Aims: In addition to the constructs of a common decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour, the present study examined the influence of student role identity and university student (in-group) identification for predicting both the initiation and maintenance of students’ attendance at voluntary peer-assisted study sessions in a statistics subject. Sample: University students enrolled in a statistics subject were invited to complete a questionnaire at two time points across the academic semester. A total of 79 university students completed questionnaires at the first data collection point, with 46 students completing the questionnaire at the second data collection point. Method: Twice during the semester, students’ attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, student role identity, in-group identification, and intention to attend study sessions were assessed via on-line questionnaires. Objective measures of class attendance records for each half-semester (or ‘term’) were obtained. Results: Across both terms, students’ attitudes predicted their attendance intentions, with intentions predicting class attendance. Earlier in the semester, in addition to perceived behavioural control, both student role identity and in-group identification predicted students’ attendance intentions, with only role identity influencing intentions later in the semester. Conclusions: These findings highlight the possible chronology that different identity influences have in determining students’ initial and maintained attendance at voluntary sessions designed to facilitate their learning.

Implementing an enhanced repository statistics system for QUT ePrints

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) was one of the first universities in Australia to establish an institutional repository. Launched in November 2003, the repository (QUT ePrints) uses the EPrints open source repository software (from Southampton) and has enjoyed the benefit of an institutional deposit mandate since January 2004. Currently (April 2012), the repository holds over 36,000 records, including 17,909 open access publications with another 2,434 publications embargoed but with mediated access enabled via the ‘Request a copy’ button which is a feature of the EPrints software. At QUT, the repository is managed by the library.QUT ePrints (http://eprints.qut.edu.au) The repository is embedded into a number of other systems at QUT including the staff profile system and the University’s research information system. It has also been integrated into a number of critical processes related to Government reporting and research assessment. Internally, senior research administrators often look to the repository for information to assist with decision-making and planning. While some statistics could be drawn from the advanced search feature and the existing download statistics feature, they were rarely at the level of granularity or aggregation required. Getting the information from the ‘back end’ of the repository was very time-consuming for the Library staff. In 2011, the Library funded a project to enhance the range of statistics which would be available from the public interface of QUT ePrints. The repository team conducted a series of focus groups and individual interviews to identify and prioritise functionality requirements for a new statistics ‘dashboard’. The participants included a mix research administrators, early career researchers and senior researchers. The repository team identified a number of business criteria (eg extensible, support available, skills required etc) and then gave each a weighting. After considering all the known options available, five software packages (IRStats, ePrintsStats, AWStats, BIRT and Google Urchin/Analytics) were thoroughly evaluated against a list of 69 criteria to determine which would be most suitable. The evaluation revealed that IRStats was the best fit for our requirements. It was deemed capable of meeting 21 out of the 31 high priority criteria. Consequently, IRStats was implemented as the basis for QUT ePrints’ new statistics dashboards which were launched in Open Access Week, October 2011. Statistics dashboards are now available at four levels; whole-of-repository level, organisational unit level, individual author level and individual item level. The data available includes, cumulative total deposits, time series deposits, deposits by item type, % fulltexts, % open access, cumulative downloads, time series downloads, downloads by item type, author ranking, paper ranking (by downloads), downloader geographic location, domains, internal v external downloads, citation data (from Scopus and Web of Science), most popular search terms, non-search referring websites. The data is displayed in charts, maps and table format. The new statistics dashboards are a great success. Feedback received from staff and students has been very positive. Individual researchers have said that they have found the information to be very useful when compiling a track record. It is now very easy for senior administrators (including the Deputy Vice Chancellor-Research) to compare the full-text deposit rates (i.e. mandate compliance rates) across organisational units. This has led to increased ‘encouragement’ from Heads of School and Deans in relation to the provision of full-text versions.

Fusing loop detector and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time statistics on signalized urban networks

This article presents a methodology that integrates cumulative plots with probe vehicle data for estimation of travel time statistics (average, quartile) on urban networks. The integration reduces relative deviation among the cumulative plots so that the classical analytical procedure of defining the area between the plots as the total travel time can be applied. For quartile estimation, a slicing technique is proposed. The methodology is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland and it is concluded that the travel time estimates from the proposed methodology are statistically equivalent to the observed values.

Who claims gifts as a tax deduction? An examination of tax deductible gift statistics

Many donors, particularly those contemplating a substantial donation, consider whether their donation will be deductible from their taxable income. This motivation is not lost on fundraisers who conduct appeals before the end of the taxation year to capitalise on such desires. The motivation is also not lost on Treasury analysts who perceive the tax deduction as “lost” revenue and wonder if the loss is “efficient” in economic terms. Would it be more efficient for the government to give grants to deserving organisations, rather than permitting donor directed gifts? Better still, what about contracts that lock in the use of the money for a government priority? What place does tax deduction play in influencing a donor to give? Does the size of the gift bear any relationship to the size of the tax deduction? Could an increased level of donations take up an increasing shortfall in government welfare and community infrastructure spending? Despite these questions being asked regularly, little has been rigorously established about the effect of taxation deductions on a donor’s gifts.

Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

Role of kilometer-scale weak circular heterogeneities on upper crustal deformation patterns: Evidence from scaled analogue modeling and the Sudbury Basin, Canada

The Sudbury Basin is a non-cylindrical fold basin occupying the central portion of the Sudbury Impact Structure. The impact structure lends itself excellently to explore the structural evolution of continental crust containing a circular region of long-term weakness. In a series of scaled analogue experiments various model crustal configurations were shortened horizontally at a constant rate. In mechanically weakened crust, model basins formed that mimic several first-order structural characteristics of the Sudbury Basin: (1) asymmetric, non-cylindrical folding of the Basin, (2) structures indicating concentric shortening around lateral basin termini and (3) the presence of a zone of strain concentration near the hinge zones of model basins. Geometrically and kinematically this zone corresponds to the South Range Shear Zone of the Sudbury Basin. According to our experiments, this shear zone is a direct mechanical consequence of basin formation, rather than the result of thrusting following folding. Overall, the models highlight the structurally anomalous character of the Sudbury Basin within the Paleoproterozoic Eastern Penokean Orogen. In particular, our models suggest that the Basin formed by pure shear thickening of crust, whereas transpressive deformation prevailed elsewhere in the orogen. The model basin is deformed by thickening and non-cylindrical synformal buckling, while conjugate transpressive shear zones propagated away from its lateral tips. This is consistent with pure shear deformation of a weak circular inclusion in a strong matrix. The models suggest that the Sudbury Basin formed as a consequence of long-term weakening of the upper crust by meteorite impact.

Quantifying the roles of cell motility and cell proliferation in a circular barrier assay

Moving fronts of cells are essential features of embryonic development, wound repair and cancer metastasis. This paper describes a set of experiments to investigate the roles of random motility and proliferation in driving the spread of an initially confined cell population. The experiments include an analysis of cell spreading when proliferation was inhibited. Our data have been analysed using two mathematical models: a lattice-based discrete model and a related continuum partial differential equation model. We obtain independent estimates of the random motility parameter, D, and the intrinsic proliferation rate, λ, and we confirm that these estimates lead to accurate modelling predictions of the position of the leading edge of the moving front as well as the evolution of the cell density profiles. Previous work suggests that systems with a high λ/D ratio will be characterized by steep fronts, whereas systems with a low λ/D ratio will lead to shallow diffuse fronts and this is confirmed in the present study. Our results provide evidence that continuum models, based on the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation, are a reliable platform upon which we can interpret and predict such experimental observations.

Non-Newtonian natural convection flow along an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder using modified power-law model

Laminar two-dimensional natural convection boundary-layer flow of non-Newtonian fluids along an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder has been studied using a modified power-law viscosity model. In this model, there are no unrealistic limits of zero or infinite viscosity. Therefore, the boundary-layer equations can be solved numerically by using marching order implicit finite difference method with double sweep technique. Numerical results are presented for the case of shear-thinning as well as shear thickening fluids in terms of the fluid velocity and temperature distributions, shear stresses and rate of heat transfer in terms of the local skin-friction and local Nusselt number respectively.

Regulating bereavement : inquests, family pressure and the gate keeping of suicide statistics

This study of English Coronial practice raises a number of questions, not only regarding state investigations of suicide, but also of the role of the Coroner itself. Following observations at over 20 inquests into possible suicides, and in-depth interviews with six Coroners, three main issue emerged: first, there exists considerable slippage between different Coroners over which deaths are likely to be classified as suicide; second, the high standard of proof required, and immense pressure faced by Coroners from family members at inquest to reach any verdict other than suicide, can significantly depress likely suicide rates; and finally, Coroners feel no professional obligation, either individually or collectively, to contribute to the production of consistent and useful social data regarding suicide—arguably rendering comparative suicide statistics relatively worthless. These issues lead, ultimately, to a more important question about the role we expect Coroners to play within social governance, and within an effective, contemporary democracy.

Shear-critical impact response of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete circular columns

A study on the vulnerability of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete (RC) circular columns in multi-story buildings under low- to medium-velocity impacts at shear-critical locations is presented. The study is based on a previously validated nonlinear explicit dynamic finite element (FE) modeling technique developed by the authors. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full-scale vehicle impact tests abundantly found in the literature with a view to quantifying the sensitivity of the design parameters of the RC columns under the typical impacts that are representative of the general vehicle population. The design parameters considered include the diameter and height of the column, the vertical steel ratio, the concrete grade, and the confinement effects. From the results of the simulations, empirical equations to quantify the critical impulses for the simplified design of the short, circular RC columns under the risk of shear-critical impacts are developed.