On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Ions in motor vehicle exhaust and their dispersion near busy roads

Measurements in the exhaust plume of a petrol-driven motor car showed that molecular cluster ions of both signs were present in approximately equal amounts. The emission rate increased sharply with engine speed while the charge symmetry remained unchanged. Measurements at the kerbside of nine motorways and five city roads showed that the mean total cluster ion concentration near city roads (603 cm-3) was about one-half of that near motorways (1211 cm-3) and about twice as high as that in the urban background (269 cm-3). Both positive and negative ion concentrations near a motorway showed a significant linear increase with traffic density (R2=0.3 at p<0.05) and correlated well with each other in real time (R2=0.87 at p<0.01). Heavy duty diesel vehicles comprised the main source of ions near busy roads. Measurements were conducted as a function of downwind distance from two motorways carrying around 120-150 vehicles per minute. Total traffic-related cluster ion concentrations decreased rapidly with distance, falling by one-half from the closest approach of 2m to 5m of the kerb. Measured concentrations decreased to background at about 15m from the kerb when the wind speed was 1.3 m s-1, this distance being greater at higher wind speed. The number and net charge concentrations of aerosol particles were also measured. Unlike particles that were carried downwind to distances of a few hundred metres, cluster ions emitted by motor vehicles were not present at more than a few tens of metres from the road.

Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models

The health of tollbooth workers is seriously threatened by long-term exposure to polluted air from vehicle exhausts. Using traffic data collected at a toll plaza, vehicle movements were simulated by a system dynamics model with different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. This allowed the average travel time of vehicles to be calculated. A three-dimension Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was used with a k–ε turbulence model to simulate pollutant dispersion at the toll plaza for different traffic volumes and toll collection procedures. It was shown that pollutant concentration around tollbooths increases as traffic volume increases. Whether traffic volume is low or high (1500 vehicles/h or 2500 vehicles/h), pollutant concentration decreases if electronic toll collection (ETC) is adopted. In addition, pollutant concentration around tollbooths decreases as the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles increases. However, if the proportion of ETC-equipped vehicles is very low and the traffic volume is not heavy, then pollutant concentration increases as the number of ETC lanes increases.

Adhesion and dispersion of salmeterol xinofoate from lactose interactive mixtures for inhalation - can surface roughness of carriers determine performance

The objective was to understand the influence of the surface roughness of lactose carriers on the adhesion and dispersion of salmeterol xinafoate (SX) from interactive mixtures. The surface roughness of lactose carriers was determined by confocal microscopy. Particle images and adhesion forces between SX and lactose particles were determined by Atomic Force Microscopy. The dispersion of SX (2.5%) from interactive mixtures with lactose was determined using a twin-stage impinger (TSI) with a Rotahaler® at an airflow rate of 60L/min. SX was analysed using a validated HPLC assay. The RMS Rq of lactose carriers ranged from 0.93-2.84μm, the Fine Particle Fraction (FPF) of SX ranged between 4 and 24 percent and average adhesion force between a SX and lactose particles ranged between 49 and 134 nN. No direct correlation was observed between the RMS Rq of lactose carriers and either the FPF of SX for the interactive mixtures or the adhesion force of a SX on the lactose particles; however, the presence of fine lactose associated with the carrier surface increased the FPF of SX. Dispersion through direct SX detachment from the carrier surface was not consistent with the poor correlations described and was more likely to occur through complex particulate interactions involving fine lactose.

Effects of magnesium stearate on the efficient dispersion of salbutamol sulphate from carrier-based dry powder inhaler formulations

Dry powder inhaler (DPI) formulations is one of the most useful aerosol preparations in which drugs may be formulated as carrier-based interactive mixtures with micronised drug particles (<5 μm) adhered onto the surface of large inert carriers (lactose powders). The addition of magnesium stearate (MgSt) (1-3), was found to increase dispersion of various drugs from DPI formulations. Recently, some active compounds coated with 5% (wt/wt) MgSt using the mechanofusion method showed significant improvements in aerosolization behavior due to the reduction in intrinsic cohesion force (4). Application of MgSt in powder formulations is not new; however, no studies demonstrated the minimum threshold level for this excipient in efficient aerosolization of drug powders from the interactive mixtures. Therefore, this study investigated the role of MgSt concentration on the efficient dispersion of salbutamol sulphate (SS) from DPI formulations.

An approach to statistical lip modelling for speaker identification via chromatic feature extraction

This paper presents a novel technique for the tracking of moving lips for the purpose of speaker identification. In our system, a model of the lip contour is formed directly from chromatic information in the lip region. Iterative refinement of contour point estimates is not required. Colour features are extracted from the lips via concatenated profiles taken around the lip contour. Reduction of order in lip features is obtained via principal component analysis (PCA) followed by linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Statistical speaker models are built from the lip features based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Identification experiments performed on the M2VTS¹ database, show encouraging results

Identification of dispersion-dependent hexagonal cavity modes of an individual ZnO nanonail

The hexagonal resonator characteristics of an individual ZnO-nanonail’s head were investigated via spatially resolved cathodoluminescence (CL) at room temperature. The positions of most of distinct CL peaks in visible range were well matched to those of whispering gallery modes (WGMs) of a hexagonal dielectric cavity when we took birefringence and dispersion of refractive indices into account. The broad and weak peaks for TE polarization in long wavelength range were consistent with refractive-index values below the threshold for total internal inflection. CL peaks that were not matched to WGMs were identified as either triangular quasi-WGM or Fabry–Pérot resonance modes.

Precipitazioni sull'endotelio [Pigment Dispersion Syndrome]

Arguably, the most common patient seen in contact lens practice in our communities is the young adult white myope. The incidence of eye disease in this group of patients is very low, particularly if the genetically determined problems are excluded. However, there is one condition that should always be anticipated and searched for, especially in males. In fact, it affects 2-4% of these individuals and is known as pigment dispersion syndrome. This is important because 25-50% of these patients will get secondary or pigmentary glaucoma because of the pigment dispersion. It can be inherited as an autosomal dominant trait and has been mapped to chromosome 7. It is usually bilateral and is rarely encountered in patients of darker skin such as Asians and African-Americans.

Corona ions from high-voltage power lines : nature of emission and dispersion

Positive and negative small ions, aerosol ion and number concentration and dc electric fields were monitored at an overhead high-voltage power line site. We show that the emission of corona ions was not spatially uniform along the lines and occurred from discrete components such as a particular set of spacers. Maximum ion concentrations and atmospheric dc electric fields were observed at a point 20 m downwind of the lines. It was estimated that less than 7% of the total number of aerosol particles was charged. The electrical parameters decreased steadily with further downwind distance but remained significantly higher than background.

Studies on the effect of the size of polycaprolactone microspheres for the dispersion of Salbutamol Sulfate from dry powder inhaler formulations

Purpose: To study the effect of the size of the surface-coated polycaprolactone (PCL) microparticle carriers on the aerosolization and dispersion of Salbutamol Sulfate (SS) from Dry Powder Inhaler (DPI) formulations. Methods: The microparticles were fabricated using an emulsion technique in four different sizes (25, 48, 104 and 150 μm) and later coated with Magnesium stearate (MgSt) and leucine. They were characterized by laser diffraction and SEM. The Fine Particle Fraction (FPF) of SS from powder mixtures was determined by a Twin Stage Impinger (TSI). Results: As the carrier size increased from 25 μm to 150 μm, the FPF of the SS delivered by the coated PCL particles increased approximately four fold. A linear relationship was found between the FPF and Volume mean Diameter (VMD) of the particles over this range. Conclusions: The dispersion behaviour of SS from PCL carriers was dependent on the inherent size of the carriers and the increased FPF of SS with increased carrier size probably reflects the higher mechanical forces produced due to the carrier-carrier collisions or collisions between the carrier particles and the internal walls of the inhaler during aerosolization.

A finite volume method for solving the two-sided time-space fractional advection-dispersion equation

The field of fractional differential equations provides a means for modelling transport processes within complex media which are governed by anomalous transport. Indeed, the application to anomalous transport has been a significant driving force behind the rapid growth and expansion of the literature in the field of fractional calculus. In this paper, we present a finite volume method to solve the time-space two-sided fractional advection dispersion equation on a one-dimensional domain. Such an equation allows modelling different flow regime impacts from either side. The finite volume formulation provides a natural way to handle fractional advection-dispersion equations written in conservative form. The novel spatial discretisation employs fractionally-shifted Gr¨unwald formulas to discretise the Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives at control volume faces in terms of function values at the nodes, while the L1-algorithm is used to discretise the Caputo time fractional derivative. Results of numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

A second-order accurate numerical approximation for the Riesz space fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper, we consider a space Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation. The equation is obtained from the standard advection-diffusion equation by replacing the ¯rst-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of order β 1 Є (0; 1) and β2 Є(1; 2], respectively. Riesz fractional advection and dispersion terms are approximated by using two fractional centered difference schemes, respectively. A new weighted Riesz fractional ¯nite difference approximation scheme is proposed. When the weighting factor Ѳ = 1/2, a second- order accurate numerical approximation scheme for the Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation is obtained. Stability, consistency and convergence of the numerical approximation scheme are discussed. A numerical example is given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

Numerical analysis of the time variable fractional order mobile-immobile advection-dispersion model

Many physical processes exhibit fractional order behavior that varies with time or space. The continuum of order in the fractional calculus allows the order of the fractional operator to be considered as a variable. In this paper, we consider the time variable fractional order mobile-immobile advection-dispersion model. Numerical methods and analyses of stability and convergence for the fractional partial differential equations are quite limited and difficult to derive. This motivates us to develop efficient numerical methods as well as stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods for the fractional order mobile immobile advection-dispersion model. In the paper, we use the Coimbra variable time fractional derivative which is more efficient from the numerical standpoint and is preferable for modeling dynamical systems. An implicit Euler approximation for the equation is proposed and then the stability of the approximation are investigated. As for the convergence of the numerical scheme we only consider a special case, i.e. the time fractional derivative is independent of time variable t. The case where the time fractional derivative depends both the time variable t and the space variable x will be considered in the future work. Finally, numerical examples are provided to show that the implicit Euler approximation is computationally efficient.

Numerical methods and analysis for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection–dispersion models (FADMs) is considered. These models include five fractional advection–dispersion models, i.e., the time FADM, the mobile/immobile time FADM with a time Caputo fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with two sides Riemann–Liouville derivatives, the time–space FADM and the time fractional advection–diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. These equations can be used to simulate the regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADMs. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analysed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.