High-temperature, low-H₂O silicic magmas of the Yellowstone Hotspot: an experimental study of Rhyolite from the Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center, Central Snake River Plain, USA

The phase relations have been investigated experimentally at 200 and 500 MPa as a function of water activity for one of the least evolved (Indian Batt Rhyolite) and of a more evolved rhyolite composition (Cougar Point Tuff XV) from the 12·8-8·1 Ma Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center of the Yellowstone hotspot. Particular priority was given to accurate determination of the water content of the quenched glasses using infrared spectroscopic techniques. Comparison of the composition of natural and experimentally synthesized phases confirms that high temperatures (>900°C) and extremely low melt water contents (<1·5 wt % H₂O) are required to reproduce the natural mineral assemblages. In melts containing 0·5-1·5 wt % H₂O, the liquidus phase is clinopyroxene (excluding Fe-Ti oxides, which are strongly dependent on fO₂), and the liquidus temperature of the more evolved Cougar Point Tuff sample (BJR; 940-1000°C) is at least 30°C lower than that of the Indian Batt Rhyolite lava sample (IBR2; 970-1030°C). For the composition BJR, the comparison of the compositions of the natural and experimental glasses indicates a pre-eruptive temperature of at least 900°C. The composition of clinopyroxene and pigeonite pairs can be reproduced only for water contents below 1·5 wt % H₂O at 900°C, or lower water contents if the temperature is higher. For the composition IBR2, a minimum temperature of 920°C is necessary to reproduce the main phases at 200 and 500 MPa. At 200 MPa, the pre-eruptive water content of the melt is constrained in the range 0·7-1·3 wt % at 950°C and 0·3-1·0 wt % at 1000°C. At 500 MPa, the pre-eruptive temperatures are slightly higher (by 30-50°C) for the same ranges of water concentration. The experimental results are used to explore possible proxies to constrain the depth of magma storage. The crystallization sequence of tectosilicates is strongly dependent on pressure between 200 and 500 MPa. In addition, the normative Qtz-Ab-Or contents of glasses quenched from melts coexisting with quartz, sanidine and plagioclase depend on pressure and melt water content, assuming that the normative Qtz and Ab/Or content of such melts is mainly dependent on pressure and water activity, respectively. The combination of results from the phase equilibria and from the composition of glasses indicates that the depth of magma storage for the IBR2 and BJR compositions may be in the range 300-400 MPa (13 km) and 200-300 MPa (10 km), respectively.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Tumour islet Foxp3+ T-cell infiltration predicts poor outcome in nonsmall cell lung cancer

The impact of host immunity on outcome in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is controversial. We examined the relationship between lymphoid infiltration patterns in NSCLC and prognosis. Tumour- and stroma-infiltrating CD3+, CD8+ and forkhead box P3 (Foxp3)+ T-lymphocytes were identified using immunohistochemistry and a novel image analysis algorithm to assess total, cytotoxic and regulatory T-lymphocyte counts, respectively, in 196 NSCLC cases. The median cell count was selected as a cut-point to define patient subgroups and the ratio of the corresponding tumour islet:stroma (TI/S) counts was determined. There was a positive association between overall survival and increased CD8+ TI/S ratio (hazard ratio (HR) for death 0.44, p<0.001) but an inverse relationship between Foxp3+ TI/S ratio and overall survival (HR 4.86, p<0.001). Patients with high CD8+ islet (HR 0.48, p<0.001) and Foxp3+ stromal (HR 0.23, p<0.001) counts had better survival, whereas high CD3+ and CD8+ stromal counts and high Foxp3+ islet infiltration conferred a worse survival (HR 1.55, 2.19 and 3.14, respectively). By multivariate analysis, a high CD8+ TI/S ratio conferred an improved survival (HR 0.48, p=0.002) but a high Foxp3+ TI/S ratio was associated with worse survival (HR 3.91, p<0.001). Microlocalisation of infiltrating T-lymphocytes is a powerful predictor of outcome in resected NSCLC.