Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Measurement of total body water (TBW) and total energy expenditure (TEE) using stable isotopes

Understanding the relationship between diet, physical activity and health in humans requires accurate measurement of body composition and daily energy expenditure. Stable isotopes provide a means of measuring total body water and daily energy expenditure under free-living conditions. While the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for the analysis of 2H (Deuterium) and 18O (Oxygen-18) is well established in the field of human energy metabolism research, numerous questions remain regarding the factors which influence analytical and measurement error using this methodology. This thesis was comprised of four studies with the following emphases. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the analytical and measurement error of the IRMS with regard to sample handling under certain conditions. Study 2 involved the comparison of TEE (Total daily energy expenditure) using two commonly employed equations. Further, saliva and urine samples, collected at different times, were used to determine if clinically significant differences would occur. Study 3 was undertaken to determine the appropriate collection times for TBW estimates and derived body composition values. Finally, Study 4, a single case study to investigate if TEE measures are affected when the human condition changes due to altered exercise and water intake. The aim of Study 1 was to validate laboratory approaches to measure isotopic enrichment to ensure accurate (to international standards), precise (reproducibility of three replicate samples) and linear (isotope ratio was constant over the expected concentration range) results. This established the machine variability for the IRMS equipment in use at Queensland University for both TBW and TEE. Using either 0.4mL or 0.5mL sample volumes for both oxygen-18 and deuterium were statistically acceptable (p>0.05) and showed a within analytical variance of 5.8 Delta VSOW units for deuterium, 0.41 Delta VSOW units for oxygen-18. This variance was used as “within analytical noise” to determine sample deviations. It was also found that there was no influence of equilibration time on oxygen-18 or deuterium values when comparing the minimum (oxygen-18: 24hr; deuterium: 3 days) and maximum (oxygen-18: and deuterium: 14 days) equilibration times. With regard to preparation using the vacuum line, any order of preparation is suitable as the TEE values fall within 8% of each other regardless of preparation order. An 8% variation is acceptable for the TEE values due to biological and technical errors (Schoeller, 1988). However, for the automated line, deuterium must be assessed first followed by oxygen-18 as the automated machine line does not evacuate tubes but merely refills them with an injection of gas for a predetermined time. Any fractionation (which may occur for both isotopes), would cause a slight elevation in the values and hence a lower TEE. The purpose of the second and third study was to investigate the use of IRMS to measure the TEE and TBW of and to validate the current IRMS practices in use with regard to sample collection times of urine and saliva, the use of two TEE equations from different research centers and the body composition values derived from these TEE and TBW values. Following the collection of a fasting baseline urine and saliva sample, 10 people (8 women, 2 men) were dosed with a doubly labeled water does comprised of 1.25g 10% oxygen-18 and 0.1 g 100% deuterium/kg body weight. The samples were collected hourly for 12 hrs on the first day and then morning, midday, and evening samples were collected for the next 14 days. The samples were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. For the TBW, time to equilibration was determined using three commonly employed data analysis approaches. Isotopic equilibration was reached in 90% of the sample by hour 6, and in 100% of the sample by hour 7. With regard to the TBW estimations, the optimal time for urine collection was found to be between hours 4 and 10 as to where there was no significant difference between values. In contrast, statistically significant differences in TBW estimations were found between hours 1-3 and from 11-12 when compared with hours 4-10. Most of the individuals in this study were in equilibrium after 7 hours. The TEE equations of Prof Dale Scholler (Chicago, USA, IAEA) and Prof K.Westerterp were compared with that of Prof. Andrew Coward (Dunn Nutrition Centre). When comparing values derived from samples collected in the morning and evening there was no effect of time or equation on resulting TEE values. The fourth study was a pilot study (n=1) to test the variability in TEE as a result of manipulations in fluid consumption and level of physical activity; the magnitude of change which may be expected in a sedentary adult. Physical activity levels were manipulated by increasing the number of steps per day to mimic the increases that may result when a sedentary individual commences an activity program. The study was comprised of three sub-studies completed on the same individual over a period of 8 months. There were no significant changes in TBW across all studies, even though the elimination rates changed with the supplemented water intake and additional physical activity. The extra activity may not have sufficiently strenuous enough and the water intake high enough to cause a significant change in the TBW and hence the CO2 production and TEE values. The TEE values measured show good agreement based on the estimated values calculated on an RMR of 1455 kcal/day, a DIT of 10% of TEE and activity based on measured steps. The covariance values tracked when plotting the residuals were found to be representative of “well-behaved” data and are indicative of the analytical accuracy. The ratio and product plots were found to reflect the water turnover and CO2 production and thus could, with further investigation, be employed to identify the changes in physical activity.

Walking when intoxicated : an investigation of the factors which influence individuals' drink walking intentions

Annually, in Australia, 10-15% of all road-related fatalities involve pedestrians. Of those pedestrians fatally injured, approximately 45% were walking while intoxicated or 'drink walking'. Drink walking is increasing in prevalence and younger persons may be especially prone to engage in this behaviour and, thus, are at heightened risk of being injured or killed. Presently, limited research is available regarding the factors which influence individuals to drink walk. This study explored young people's (17-25 years) intentions to drink walk, using an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Participants (N = 215), completed a self-report questionnaire which assessed the standard TPB constructs (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) as well as the extended constructs of risk perception, anticipated regret, and past behaviour. It was hypothesised that the standard TPB constructs would significantly predict individuals' reported intentions to drink walk and that the additional constructs would predict intentions over and above the TPB constructs. The TPB variables significantly predicted 63.2% of the variance in individuals' reported intentions to drink walk, and the additional variables, combined, explained a further 6.1% of the variance. Of the additional constructs, anticipated regret and past behaviour, but not risk perception, were significant predictors of drink walking intentions. As one of the first studies to provide a theoretically-based investigation of factors influencing individuals' drink walking intentions, the current study's findings have potentially significant implications for understanding young people's decisions to drink walk and the design of future countermeasures to ultimately reduce this behaviour.

Moments of action provide insight into critical times for advection–diffusion–reaction processes

In 2010 Berezhkovskii and coworkers introduced the concept of local accumulation time (LAT) as a finite measure of the time required for the transient solution of a reaction diffusion equation to effectively reach steady state(Biophys J. 99, L59 (2010); Phys Rev E. 83, 051906 (2011)). Berezhkovskii’s approach is a particular application of the concept of mean action time (MAT) that was introduced previously by McNabb (IMA J Appl Math. 47, 193 (1991)). Here, we generalize these previous results by presenting a framework to calculate the MAT, as well as the higher moments, which we call the moments of action. The second moment is the variance of action time; the third moment is related to the skew of action time, and so on. We consider a general transition from some initial condition to an associated steady state for a one–dimensional linear advection–diffusion–reaction partial differential equation(PDE). Our results indicate that it is possible to solve for the moments of action exactly without requiring the transient solution of the PDE. We present specific examples that highlight potential weaknesses of previous studies that have considered the MAT alone without considering higher moments. Finally, we also provide a meaningful interpretation of the moments of action by presenting simulation results from a discrete random walk model together with some analysis of the particle lifetime distribution. This work shows that the moments of action are identical to the moments of the particle lifetime distribution for certain transitions.

A strong quantitative trait locus for wing length on chromosome 2 in a wild population of great reed warblers

Wing length is a key character for essential behaviours related to bird flight such as migration and foraging. In the present study, we initiate the search for the genes underlying wing length in birds by studying a long-distance migrant, the great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus). In this species wing length is an evolutionary interesting trait with pronounced latitudinal gradient and sex-specific selection regimes in local populations. We performed a quantitative trait locus (QTL) scan for wing length in great reed warblers using phenotypic, genotypic, pedigree and linkage map data from our long-term study population in Sweden. We applied the linkage analysis mapping method implemented in GRIDQTL (a new web-based software) and detected a genome-wide significant QTL for wing length on chromosome 2, to our knowledge, the first detected QTL in wild birds. The QTL extended over 25 cM and accounted for a substantial part (37%) of the phenotypic variance of the trait. A genome scan for tarsus length (a bodysize-related trait) did not show any signal, implying that the wing-length QTL on chromosome 2 was not associated with body size. Our results provide a first important step into understanding the genetic architecture of avian wing length, and give opportunities to study the evolutionary dynamics of wing length at the locus level. This journal is© 2010 The Royal Society.

Comment on "Local accumulation times for source, diffusion, and degradation models in two and three dimensions" [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 104121 (2013)]

In a recent paper, Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman studied a partial differential equation (PDE) model describing radially symmetric diffusion and degradation in two and three dimensions. They paid particular attention to the local accumulation time (LAT), also known in the literature as the mean action time, which is a spatially dependent timescale that can be used to provide an estimate of the time required for the transient solution to effectively reach steady state. They presented exact results for three-dimensional applications and gave approximate results for the two-dimensional analogue. Here we make two generalizations of Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman’s work: (i) we present an exact expression for the LAT in any dimension and (ii) we present an exact expression for the variance of the distribution. The variance provides useful information regarding the spread about the mean that is not captured by the LAT. We conclude by describing further extensions of the model that were not considered by Gordon,Muratov, and Shvartsman. We have found that exact expressions for the LAT can also be derived for these important extensions...

Exploring subscription renewal intention of operational cloud enterprise systems - a stakeholder perspective

Retaining customers is a relevant topic throughout all service industries. However, only limited attention has been directed towards studying the antecedents of subscription renewal in the context of operational cloud enterprise systems. Cloud services have historically been offered as subscription-based services with the (theoretical) possibility of seamless service cancellation, in contrast to classical IT-Outsourcing contracts or license-based software installations of on-premise enterprise systems. In this work, we investigate the central concept of subscription renewal by focusing on different facets of IS success and their relevance for distinct employee cohorts. Analyzing inter-cohort differences has strong practical implications, as it helps IT vendors to focus on specific IT-related factors when trying to retain customers. Therefore an empirical study was undertaken. The hypotheses were developed on an individual level and tested using survey responses of IT decision makers within companies which adopted cloud enterprise systems. Gathered data was then analyzed using PLS. The results show that subscription renewal intention of the strategic cohort is mainly based on perceived system quality, whereas information quality explains most of the variance of subscription renewal in the management cohort. Beneath the cloud enterprise systems specific contributions, the work adds to the theoretical body of research related to IS success and IS continuation, as well as stakeholder perspectives.

A novel method for analysing lighting variance

Robust descriptor matching across varying lighting conditions is important for vision-based robotics. We present a novel strategy for quantifying the lighting variance of descriptors. The strategy works by utilising recovered low dimensional mappings from Isomap and our measure of the lighting variance of each of these mappings. The resultant metric allows different descriptors to be compared given a dataset and a set of keypoints. We demonstrate that the SIFT descriptor typically has lower lighting variance than other descriptors, although the result depends on semantic class and lighting conditions.

Classification of cancer-related death certificates using machine learning

Background Cancer monitoring and prevention relies on the critical aspect of timely notification of cancer cases. However, the abstraction and classification of cancer from the free-text of pathology reports and other relevant documents, such as death certificates, exist as complex and time-consuming activities. Aims In this paper, approaches for the automatic detection of notifiable cancer cases as the cause of death from free-text death certificates supplied to Cancer Registries are investigated. Method A number of machine learning classifiers were studied. Features were extracted using natural language techniques and the Medtex toolkit. The numerous features encompassed stemmed words, bi-grams, and concepts from the SNOMED CT medical terminology. The baseline consisted of a keyword spotter using keywords extracted from the long description of ICD-10 cancer related codes. Results Death certificates with notifiable cancer listed as the cause of death can be effectively identified with the methods studied in this paper. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier achieved best performance with an overall F-measure of 0.9866 when evaluated on a set of 5,000 free-text death certificates using the token stem feature set. The SNOMED CT concept plus token stem feature set reached the lowest variance (0.0032) and false negative rate (0.0297) while achieving an F-measure of 0.9864. The SVM classifier accounts for the first 18 of the top 40 evaluated runs, and entails the most robust classifier with a variance of 0.001141, half the variance of the other classifiers. Conclusion The selection of features significantly produced the most influences on the performance of the classifiers, although the type of classifier employed also affects performance. In contrast, the feature weighting schema created a negligible effect on performance. Specifically, it is found that stemmed tokens with or without SNOMED CT concepts create the most effective feature when combined with an SVM classifier.

Queensland teachers' conceptions of creativity : a phenomenographic investigation

This study investigated conceptions of creativity in a group of Queensland teachers. The analysis of interview data produced precise descriptions of seven categories of meanings of creativity, delimiting the range and variance of meanings expressed. The study provides evidence of two distinct ways of experiencing and defining creativity. As a result the researcher was able to propose further research directions to extend educational understanding of creativity and recommended using the present study findings to strengthen policy and training measures for the Australian Curriculum focus on building creative capital.

Port-Hamiltonian control of fully actuated underwater vehicles

This chapter presents a novel control strategy for trajectory tracking of underwater marine vehicles that are designed using port-Hamiltonian theory. A model for neutrally buoyant underwater vehicles is formulated as a PHS, and then the tracking controller is designed for the horizontal plane-surge, sway and yaw. The control design is done by formulating the error dynamics as a set-point regulation port-Hamiltonian control problem. The control design is formulated in two steps. In the first step, a static-feedback tracking controller is designed, and the second step integral action is added. The global asymptotic stability of the closed loop system is proved and the performance of the controller is illustrated using a model of an open-frame offshore underwater vehicle.

Joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid-memory models of marine structures

This paper addresses the problem of joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid memory models of marine structures from finite frequency data. This problem is relevant for cases where the code used to compute the hydrodynamic coefficients of the marine structure does not give the infinite-frequency added mass. This case is typical of codes based on 2D-potential theory since most 3D-potential-theory codes solve the boundary value associated with the infinite frequency. The method proposed in this paper presents a simpler alternative approach to other methods previously presented in the literature. The advantage of the proposed method is that the same identification procedure can be used to identify the fluid-memory models with or without having access to the infinite-frequency added mass coefficient. Therefore, it provides an extension that puts the two identification problems into the same framework. The method also exploits the constraints related to relative degree and low-frequency asymptotic values of the hydrodynamic coefficients derived from the physics of the problem, which are used as prior information to refine the obtained models.

Examining the effects of early cost drivers on contingencies

The accuracy of early cost estimates is critical to the success of construction projects. The selected tender price (clients' building cost) is usually seen in previous research as a holistic dependent variable when examining early stage estimates. Unlike other components of construction cost, the amount of contingencies is decided by clients/consultants with consideration of early project information. Cost drivers of contingencies estimates are associated with uncertainty and complexity, and include project size, schedule, ground condition, construction site access, market condition and so on. A path analysis of 133 UK school building contracts was conducted to identify impacts of nine major cost drivers on the determination of contingencies by different clients/cost estimators. This research finds that gross floor area (GFA), schedule and requirement of air conditioning have statistically significant impacts on the contingency determination. The mediating role of schedule between gross floor area and contingencies (GFA→Schedule→Contingencies) was confirmed with the Soble test. The total effects of the three variables on contingencies estimates were obtained with the consideration of this indirect effect. The squared multiple correlation (SMC) of contingencies (=0.624) indicates the identified three variables can explain 62.4% variance of contingencies, and it is comparatively satisfactory considering the heterogeneity among different estimators, unknown estimating techniques and different projects

Statistical analysis of reduction in tensile strength of cotton strips as a measure of soil microbial activity

The cotton strip assay (CSA) is an established technique for measuring soil microbial activity. The technique involves burying cotton strips and measuring their tensile strength after a certain time. This gives a measure of the rotting rate, R, of the cotton strips. R is then a measure of soil microbial activity. This paper examines properties of the technique and indicates how the assay can be optimised. Humidity conditioning of the cotton strips before measuring their tensile strength reduced the within and between day variance and enabled the distribution of the tensile strength measurements to approximate normality. The test data came from a three-way factorial experiment (two soils, two temperatures, three moisture levels). The cotton strips were buried in the soil for intervals of time ranging up to 6 weeks. This enabled the rate of loss of cotton tensile strength with time to be studied under a range of conditions. An inverse cubic model accounted for greater than 90% of the total variation within each treatment combination. This offers support for summarising the decomposition process by a single parameter R. The approximate variance of the decomposition rate was estimated from a function incorporating the variance of tensile strength and the differential of the function for the rate of decomposition, R, with respect to tensile strength. This variance function has a minimum when the measured strength is approximately 2/3 that of the original strength. The estimates of R are almost unbiased and relatively robust against the cotton strips being left in the soil for more or less than the optimal time. We conclude that the rotting rate X should be measured using the inverse cubic equation, and that the cotton strips should be left in the soil until their strength has been reduced to about 2/3.