Comparison between computational models of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objective: To compare the differences in the hemodynamic parameters of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between fluid-structure interaction model (FSIM) and fluid-only model (FM), so as to discuss their application in the research of AAA. Methods: An idealized AAA model was created based on patient-specific AAA data. In FM, the flow, pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) were computed using finite volume method. In FSIM, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian algorithm was used to solve the flow in a continuously deforming geometry. The hemodynamic parameters of both models were obtained for discussion. Results: Under the same inlet velocity, there were only two symmetrical vortexes in the AAA dilation area for FSIM. In contrast, four recirculation areas existed in FM; two were main vortexes and the other two were secondary flow, which were located between the main recirculation area and the arterial wall. Six local pressure concentrations occurred in the distal end of AAA and the recirculation area for FM. However, there were only two local pressure concentrations in FSIM. The vortex center of the recirculation area in FSIM was much more close to the distal end of AAA and the area was much larger because of AAA expansion. Four extreme values of WSS existed at the proximal of AAA, the point of boundary layer separation, the point of flow reattachment and the distal end of AAA, respectively, in both FM and FSIM. The maximum wall stress and the largest wall deformation were both located at the proximal and distal end of AAA. Conclusions: The number and center of the recirculation area for both models are different, while the change of vortex is closely associated with the AAA growth. The largest WSS of FSIM is 36% smaller than that of FM. Both the maximum wall stress and largest wall displacement shall increase with the outlet pressure increasing. FSIM needs to be considered for studying the relationship between AAA growth and shear stress.

Computed wall stress may predict the growth of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Growth rate of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is thought to be an important indicator of the potential risk of rupture. Wall stress is also thought to be a trigger for its rupture. However, stress change during the expansion of an AAA is unclear. Forty-four patients with AAAs were included in this longitudinal follow-up study. They were assessed by serial abdominal ultrasonography and computerized tomography (CT) scans if a critical size was reached or a rapid expansion occurred. Patient-specific 3-dimensional AAA geometries were reconstructed from the follow-up CT images. Structural analysis was performed to calculate the wall stresses of the AAA models at both baseline and final visit. A non-linear large-strain finite element method was used to compute the wall stress distribution. The average growth rate was 0.66cm/year (range 0-1.32 cm/year). A significantly positive correlation between shoulder tress at baseline and growth rate was found (r=0.342; p=0.02). A higher shoulder stress is associated with a rapidly expanding AAA. Therefore, it may be useful for estimating the growth expansion of AAAs and further risk stratification of patients with AAAs.

Impact of calcification and intraluminal thrombus on the computed wall stresses of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Background: Increased biomechanical stresses within the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall contribute to its rupture. Calcification and intraluminal thrombus can be commonly found in AAAs, but the relationship between calcification/intraluminal thrombus and AAA wall stress is not completely described. Methods: Patient-specific three-dimensional AAA geometries were reconstructed from computed tomographic images of 20 patients. Structural analysis was performed to calculate the wall stresses of the 20 AAA models and their altered models when calcification or intraluminal thrombus was not considered. A nonlinear large-strain finite element method was used to compute the wall stress distribution. The relationships between wall stresses and volumes of calcification and intraluminal thrombus were sought. Results: Maximum stress was not correlated with the percentage of calcification, and was negatively correlated with the percentage of intraluminal thrombus (r = -0.56; P = .011). Exclusion of calcification from analysis led to a significant decrease in maximum stress by a median of 14% (range, 2%-27%; P < .01). When intraluminal thrombus was eliminated, maximum stress increased significantly by a median of 24% (range, 5%-43%; P < .01). Conclusion: The presence of calcification increases AAA peak wall stress, suggesting that calcification decrease the biomechanical stability of AAA. In contrast, intraluminal thrombus reduces the maximum stress in AAA. Calcification and intraluminal thrombus should both be considered in the evaluation of wall stress for risk assessment of AAA rupture.

Non-invasive MR imaging of inflammation in a patient with both asymptomatic carotid atheroma and an abdominal aortic aneurysm: A case report

Inflammation is a recognized risk factor for the vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque. USPIO-enhanced MRI imaging is a promising non-i nvasive method to identify high-risk atheromatous plaque inflammation in vivo in humans, in which areas of focal signal loss on MR images have been shown to correspond to the location of activated macrophages, typically at the shoulder regions of the plaque. This is the first report in humans describing simultaneous USPIO uptake within atheroma in two different arterial territories and again emphasises that atherosclerosis is a truly systemic disease. With further work, USPIO-enhanced MR imaging may be useful in identifying inflamed vulnerable atheromatous plaques in vivo, so refining patient selection for intervention and allowing appropriate early aggressive pharmacotherapy to prevent plaque rupture.

The Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) and its Association with Quality of Life in Ambulatory Patients Receiving Radiotherapy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the scored Patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) tool as an outcome measure in clinical nutrition practice and determine its association with quality of life (QoL). DESIGN: A prospective 4 week study assessing the nutritional status and QoL of ambulatory patients receiving radiation therapy to the head, neck, rectal or abdominal area. SETTING: Australian radiation oncology facilities. SUBJECTS: Sixty cancer patients aged 24-85 y. INTERVENTION: Scored PG-SGA questionnaire, subjective global assessment (SGA), QoL (EORTC QLQ-C30 version 3). RESULTS: According to SGA, 65.0% (39) of subjects were well-nourished, 28.3% (17) moderately or suspected of being malnourished and 6.7% (4) severely malnourished. PG-SGA score and global QoL were correlated (r=-0.66, P<0.001) at baseline. There was a decrease in nutritional status according to PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and SGA (P<0.001); and a decrease in global QoL (P<0.001) after 4 weeks of radiotherapy. There was a linear trend for change in PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and change in global QoL (P=0.003) between those patients who improved (5%) maintained (56.7%) or deteriorated (33.3%) in nutritional status according to SGA. There was a correlation between change in PG-SGA score and change in QoL after 4 weeks of radiotherapy (r=-0.55, P<0.001). Regression analysis determined that 26% of the variation of change in QoL was explained by change in PG-SGA (P=0.001). CONCLUSION: The scored PG-SGA is a nutrition assessment tool that identifies malnutrition in ambulatory oncology patients receiving radiotherapy and can be used to predict the magnitude of change in QoL.

Ethnic differences in body composition and anthropometric characteristics in Australian Caucasian and urban Indigenous children

The objective was to compare ethnic differences in anthropometry, including size, proportions and fat distribution, and body composition in a cohort of seventy Caucasian (forty-four boys, twenty-six girls) and seventy-four urban Indigenous (thirty-six boys, thirty-eight girls) children (aged 9–15 years). Anthropometric measures (stature, body mass, eight skinfolds, thirteen girths, six bone lengths and five bone breadths) and body composition assessment using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry were conducted. Body composition variables including total body fat percentage and percentage abdominal fat were determined and together with anthropometric indices, including BMI (kg/m2), abdominal:height ratio (AHtR) and sum of skinfolds, ethnic differences were compared for each sex. After adjustment for age, Indigenous girls showed significantly (P < 0·05) greater trunk circumferences and proportion of overweight and obesity than their Caucasian counterparts. In addition, Indigenous children had a significantly greater proportion (P < 0·05) of trunk fat. The best model for total and android fat prediction included sum of skinfolds and age in both sexes (>93 % of variation). Ethnicity was only important in girls where abdominal circumference and AHtR were included and Indigenous girls showed significantly (P < 0·05) smaller total/android fat deposition than Caucasian girls at the given abdominal circumference or AHtR values. Differences in anthropometric and fat distribution patterns in Caucasian and Indigenous children may justify the need for more appropriate screening criteria for obesity in Australian children relevant to ethnic origin.

3-D reconstruction of an ancient Egyptian mummy using X-ray computer tomography

Computer tomography has been used to image and reconstruct in 3-D an Egyptian mummy from the collection of the British Museum. This study of Tjentmutengebtiu, a priestess from the 22nd dynasty (945-715 BC) revealed invaluable information of a scientific, Egyptological and palaeopathological nature without mutilation and destruction of the painted cartonnage case or linen wrappings. Precise details on the removal of the brain through the nasal cavity and the viscera from the abdominal cavity were obtained. The nature and composition of the false eyes were investigated. The detailed analysis of the teeth provided a much closer approximation of age at death. The identification of materials used for the various amulets including that of the figures placed in the viscera was graphically demonstrated using this technique.

Quality issues for the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP)

Purpose: This two-part research project was undertaken as part of the planning process by Queensland Health (QH), Cancer Screening Services Unit (CSSU), Queensland Bowel Cancer Screening Program (QBCSP), in partnership with the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP), to prepare for the implementation of the NBCSP in public sector colonoscopy services in QLD in late 2006. There was no prior information available on the quality of colonoscopy services in Queensland (QLD) and no prior studies that assessed the quality of colonoscopy training in Australia. Furthermore, the NBCSP was introduced without extra funding for colonoscopy service improvement or provision for increases in colonoscopic capacity resulting from the introduction of the NBCSP. The main purpose of the research was to record baseline data on colonoscopy referral and practice in QLD and current training in colonoscopy Australia-wide. It was undertaken from a quality improvement perspective. Implementation of the NBCSP requires that all aspects of the screening pathway, in particular colonoscopy services for the assessment of positive Faecal Occult Blood Tests (FOBTs), will be effective, efficient, equitable and evidence-based. This study examined two important aspects of the continuous quality improvement framework for the NBCSP as they relate to colonoscopy services: (1) evidence-based practice, and (2) quality of colonoscopy training. The Principal Investigator was employed as Senior Project Officer (Training) in the QBCSP during the conduct of this research project. Recommendations from this research have been used to inform the development and implementation of quality improvement initiatives for provision of colonoscopy in the NBCSP, its QLD counterpart the QBCSP and colonoscopy services in QLD, in general. Methods – Part 1 Chart audit of evidence-based practice: The research was undertaken in two parts from 2005-2007. The first part of this research comprised a retrospective chart audit of 1484 colonoscopy records (some 13% of all colonoscopies conducted in public sector facilities in the year 2005) in three QLD colonoscopy services. Whilst some 70% of colonoscopies are currently conducted in the private sector, only public sector colonoscopy facilities provided colonoscopies under the NBCSP. The aim of this study was to compare colonoscopy referral and practice with explicit criteria derived from the National Health & Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (1999) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Prevention, Early Detection and Management of Colorectal Cancer, and describe the nature of variance with the guidelines. Symptomatic presentations were the most common indication for colonoscopy (60.9%). These comprised per rectal bleeding (31.0%), change of bowel habit (22.1%), abdominal pain (19.6%), iron deficiency anaemia (16.2%), inflammatory bowel disease (8.9%) and other symptoms (11.4%). Surveillance and follow-up colonoscopies accounted for approximately one-third of the remaining colonoscopy workload across sites. Gastroenterologists (GEs) performed relatively more colonoscopies per annum (59.9%) compared to general surgeons (GS) (24.1%), colorectal surgeons (CRS) (9.4%) and general physicians (GPs) (6.5%). Guideline compliance varied with the designation of the colonoscopist. Compliance was lower for CRS (62.9%) compared to GPs (76.0%), GEs (75.0%), GSs (70.9%, p<0.05). Compliance with guideline recommendations for colonoscopic surveillance for family history of colorectal cancer (23.9%), polyps (37.0%) and a past history of bowel cancer (42.7%), was by comparison significantly lower than for symptomatic presentations (94.4%), (p<0.001). Variation with guideline recommendations occurred more frequently for polyp surveillance (earlier than guidelines recommend, 47.9%) and follow-up for past history of bowel cancer (later than recommended, 61.7%, p<0.001). Bowel cancer cases detected at colonoscopy comprised 3.6% of all audited colonoscopies. Incomplete colonoscopies occurred in 4.3% of audited colonoscopies and were more common among women (76.6%). For all colonoscopies audited, the rate of incomplete colonoscopies for GEs was 1.6% (CI 0.9-2.6), GPs 2.0% (CI 0.6-7.2), GS 7.0% (CI 4.8-10.1) and CRS 16.4% (CI 11.2-23.5). 18.6% (n=55) of patients with a documented family history of bowel cancer had colonoscopy performed against guidelines recommendations (for general (category 1) population risk, for reasons of patient request or family history of polyps, rather than for high risk status for colorectal cancer). In general, family history was inadequately documented and subsequently applied to colonoscopy referral and practice. Methods - Part 2 Surveys of quality of colonoscopy training: The second part of the research consisted of Australia-wide anonymous, self-completed surveys of colonoscopy trainers and their trainees to ascertain their opinions on the current apprenticeship model of colonoscopy in Australia and to identify any training needs. Overall, 127 surveys were received from colonoscopy trainers (estimated response rate 30.2%). Approximately 50% of trainers agreed and 27% disagreed that current numbers of training places were adequate to maintain a skilled colonoscopy workforce in preparation for the NBCSP. Approximately 70% of trainers also supported UK-style colonoscopy training within dedicated accredited training centres using a variety of training approaches including simulation. A collaborative approach with the private sector was seen as beneficial by 65% of trainers. Non-gastroenterologists (non-GEs) were more likely than GEs to be of the opinion that simulators are beneficial for colonoscopy training (χ2-test = 5.55, P = 0.026). Approximately 60% of trainers considered that the current requirements for recognition of training in colonoscopy could be insufficient for trainees to gain competence and 80% of those indicated that ≥ 200 colonoscopies were needed. GEs (73.4%) were more likely than non-GEs (36.2%) to be of the opinion that the Conjoint Committee standard is insufficient to gain competence in colonoscopy (χ2-test = 16.97, P = 0.0001). The majority of trainers did not support training either nurses (73%) or GPs in colonoscopy (71%). Only 81 (estimated response rate 17.9%) surveys were received from GS trainees (72.1%), GE trainees (26.3%) and GP trainees (1.2%). The majority were males (75.9%), with a median age 32 years and who had trained in New South Wales (41.0%) or Victoria (30%). Overall, two-thirds (60.8%) of trainees indicated that they deemed the Conjoint Committee standard sufficient to gain competency in colonoscopy. Between specialties, 75.4% of GS trainees indicated that the Conjoint Committee standard for recognition of colonoscopy was sufficient to gain competence in colonoscopy compared to only 38.5% of GE trainees. Measures of competency assessed and recorded by trainees in logbooks centred mainly on caecal intubation (94.7-100%), complications (78.9-100%) and withdrawal time (51-76.2%). Trainees described limited access to colonoscopy training lists due to the time inefficiency of the apprenticeship model and perceived monopolisation of these by GEs and their trainees. Improvements to the current training model suggested by trainees included: more use of simulation, training tools, a United Kingdom (UK)-style training course, concentration on quality indicators, increased access to training lists, accreditation of trainers and interdisciplinary colonoscopy training. Implications for the NBCSP/QBCSP: The introduction of the NBCSP/QBCSP necessitates higher quality colonoscopy services if it is to achieve its ultimate goal of decreasing the incidence of morbidity and mortality associated with bowel cancer in Australia. This will be achieved under a new paradigm for colonoscopy training and implementation of evidence-based practice across the screening pathway and specifically targeting areas highlighted in this thesis. Recommendations for improvement of NBCSP/QBCSP effectiveness and efficiency include the following: 1. Implementation of NBCSP and QBCSP health promotion activities that target men, in particular, to increase FOBT screening uptake. 2. Improved colonoscopy training for trainees and refresher courses or retraining for existing proceduralists to improve completion rates (especially for female NBCSP/QBCSP participants), and polyp and adenoma detection and removal, including newer techniques to detect flat and depressed lesions. 3. Introduction of colonoscopy training initiatives for trainees that are aligned with NBCSP/QBCSP colonoscopy quality indicators, including measurement of training outcomes using objective quality indicators such as caecal intubation, withdrawal time, and adenoma detection rate. 4. Introduction of standardised, interdisciplinary colonoscopy training to reduce apparent differences between specialties with regard to compliance with guideline recommendations, completion rates, and quality of polypectomy. 5. Improved quality of colonoscopy training by adoption of a UK-style training program with centres of excellence, incorporating newer, more objective assessment methods, use of a variety of training tools such as simulation and rotations of trainees between metropolitan, rural, and public and private sector training facilities. 6. Incorporation of NHMRC guidelines into colonoscopy information systems to improve documentation, provide guideline recommendations at the point of care, use of gastroenterology nurse coordinators to facilitate compliance with guidelines and provision of guideline-based colonoscopy referral letters for GPs. 7. Provision of information and education about the NBCSP/QBCSP, bowel cancer risk factors, including family history and polyp surveillance guidelines, for participants, GPs and proceduralists. 8. Improved referral of NBCSP/QBCSP participants found to have a high-risk family history of bowel cancer to appropriate genetics services.

Continuous infusion of ticarcillin-clavulanate for home treatment of serious infections : clinical efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics

Continuous infusion (CI) ticarcillin–clavulanate is a potential therapeutic improvement over conventional intermittent dosing because the major pharmacodynamic (PD) predictor of efficacy of β-lactams is the time that free drug levels exceed the MIC. This study incorporated a 6-year retrospective arm evaluating efficacy and safety of CI ticarcillin–clavulanate in the home treatment of serious infections and a prospective arm additionally evaluating pharmacokinetics (PK) and PD. In the prospective arm, steady-state serum ticarcillin and clavulanate levels and MIC testing of significant pathogens were performed. One hundred and twelve patients (median age, 56 years) were treated with a CI dose of 9.3–12.4 g/day and mean CI duration of 18.0 days. Infections treated included osteomyelitis (50 patients), septic arthritis (6), cellulitis (17), pulmonary infections (12), febrile neutropenia (7), vascular infections (7), intra-abdominal infections (2), and Gram-negative endocarditis (2); 91/112 (81%) of patients were cured, 14 (13%) had partial response and 7 (6%) failed therapy. Nine patients had PICC line complications and five patients had drug adverse events. Eighteen patients had prospective PK/PD assessment although only four patients had sufficient data for a full PK/PD evaluation (both serum steady-state drug levels and ticarcillin and clavulanate MICs from a bacteriological isolate), as this was difficult to obtain in home-based patients, particularly as serum clavulanate levels were found to deteriorate rapidly on storage. Three of four patients with matched PK/PD assessment had free drug levels exceeding the MIC of the pathogen. Home CI of ticarcillin–clavulanate is a safe, effective, convenient and practical therapy and is a therapeutic advance over traditional intermittent dosing when used in the home setting.

Role of low affinity beta1-adrenergic receptors in normal and diseased hearts

ROLE OF LOW AFFINITY β1-ADRENERGIC RECEPTOR IN NORMAL AND DISEASED HEARTS Background: The β1-adrenergic receptor (AR) has at least two binding sites, 1HAR and 1LAR (high and low affinity site of the 1AR respectively) which cause cardiostimulation. Some β-blockers, for example (-)-pindolol and (-)-CGP 12177 can activate β1LAR at higher concentrations than those required to block β1HAR. While β1HAR can be blocked by all clinically used β-blockers, β1LAR is relatively resistant to blockade. Thus, chronic β1LAR activation may occur in the setting of β-blocker therapy, thereby mediating persistent βAR signaling. Thus, it is important to determine the potential significance of β1LAR in vivo, particularly in disease settings. Method and result: C57Bl/6 male mice were used. Chronic (4 weeks) β1LAR activation was achieved by treatment with (-)-CGP12177 via osmotic minipump. Cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography and catheterization. (-)-CGP12177 treatment in healthy mice increased heart rate and left ventricular (LV) contractility without detectable LV remodelling or hypertrophy. In mice subjected to an 8-week period of aorta banding, (-)-CGP12177 treatment given during 4-8 weeks led to a positive inotropic effect. (-)-CGP12177 treatment exacerbated LV remodelling indicated by a worsening of LV hypertrophy by ??% (estimated by weight, wall thickness, cardiomyocyte size) and interstitial/perivascular fibrosis (by histology). Importantly, (-)-CGP12177 treatment to aorta banded mice exacerbated cardiac expression of hypertrophic, fibrogenic and inflammatory genes (all p<0.05 vs. non-treated control with aorta banding).. Conclusion: β1LAR activation provides functional support to the heart, in both normal and diseased (pressure overload) settings. Sustained β1LAR activation in the diseased heart exacerbates LV remodelling and therefore may promote disease progression from compensatory hypertrophy to heart failure. Word count: 270

Understanding intraaortic balloon pumping

Intraaortic balloon pumping (IABP) is an established treatment for the support of a failing heart (Christenson, Simonet et al. 1997). It is a process undertaken in most level two and three intensive care units. Despite IABP appearing complex, the principles are straightforward. A sausage shaped intraaortic balloon (IAB) about 250 millimetres long and 15 millimetres in diameter, is placed in the descending aorta and attached to an external pump. The external pump then inflates and deflates the IAB in synchrony with cardiac contraction. The primary purpose of this is the support of a compromised heart with a simultaneous increase in myocardial oxygen supply, and decrease in myocardial oxygen demand (Overwalder, 1999). As a nurse it is worthwhile understanding the principles of IABP. As a hospital intervention, it’s exposure to nursing is high.

Sporadic childhood Burkitt lymphoma incidence in the United States during 1992-2005

Background The risk factors and co-factors for sporadic childhood BL are unknown. We investigated demographic and age-specific characteristics of childhood BL (0–14 years) in the U.S. Procedure BL age-standardized incidence rates (2000 U.S. standard population), were calculated using data obtained from 12 registries in the NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for cases diagnosed from 1992 through 2005. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by gender, age-group, race, ethnicity, calendar-year period, and registry. Results Of 296 cases identified, 56% were diagnosed in lymph nodes, 21% in abdominal organs, not including retroperitoneal lymph nodes, 14% were Burkitt cell leukemia, and 9% on face/head structures. The male-to-female case ratio was highest for facial/head tumors (25:1) and lowest for Burkitt cell leukemia (1.6:1). BL incidence rate was 2.5 (95% CI 2.3–2.8) cases per million person-years and was higher among boys than girls (3.9 vs. 1.1, p<0.001) and higher among Whites and Asians/Pacific Islanders than among Blacks (2.8 and 2.9 vs.1.2, respectively, p<0.001). By ethnicity, BL incidence was higher among non-Hispanic Whites than Hispanic Whites (3.2 vs. 2.0, p=0.002). Age-specific incidence rate for BL peaked by age 3–5 years (3.4 cases per million), then stabilized or declined with increasing age, but it did not vary with calendar-year or registry area. Conclusions Our results indicate that early childhood exposures, male-sex, and White race may be risk factors for sporadic childhood BL in the United States. Keywords: epidemiology, pediatric cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, HIV/AIDS

Incidence and geographic distribution of endemic Burkitt lymphoma in northern Uganda revisited

Endemic Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is etiologically associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and ecologically linked to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. However, these infections imperfectly correlate with BL epidemiology. To obtain recent epidemiological data, we studied district- and county-specific BL incidence and standardized incidence ratios using data collected from 1997 through 2006 at Lacor Hospital in northern Uganda, where studies were last done more than 30 years ago. Among 500 patients, median age was 6 years (inter-quartile range 5-8) and male-to-female ratio was 1.8:1. Among those known, most presented with abdominal (56%, M: F 1.4:1) vs. only facial tumors (35%, M: F 3.0:1). Abdominal tumors occurred in older (mean age: 7.0 vs. 6.0 years; p<0.001) and more frequently in female children (68% vs. 50%; OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5-3.5). The age-standardized incidence was 2.4 per 100,000, being 0.6 in 1-4 year olds, 4.1 in 5-9 year olds and 2.8 in 10-14 year olds and varied 3-4-fold across districts. The incidence was lower in districts that were far from Lacor and higher in districts that were close to Lacor. While districts close to Lacor were also more urbanized, the incidence was higher in the nearby perirural areas. We highlight high BL incidence and geographic variation in neighboring districts in northern Uganda. While distance from Lacor clearly influenced the patterns, the incidence was lower in municipal than in surrounding rural areas. Jaw tumors were characterized by young age and male gender, but presentation has shifted away from facial to mostly abdominal. Keywords: Africa, cancer, malaria, Epstein-Barr virus, clustering, epidemiology

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.