Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Airborne particle concentrations at schools measured at different spatial scales

Potential adverse effects on children health may result from school exposure to airborne particles. To address this issue, measurements in terms of particle number concentration, particle size distribution and black carbon (BC) concentrations were performed in three school buildings in Cassino (Italy) and its suburbs, outside and inside of the classrooms during normal occupancy and use. Additional time resolved information was gathered on ventilation condition, classroom activity, and traffic count data around the schools were obtained using a video camera. Across the three investigated school buildings, the outdoor and indoor particle number concentration monitored down to 4 nm and up to 3 m ranged from 2.8×104 part cm-3 to 4.7×104 part cm-3 and from 2.0×104 part cm-3 to 3.5×104 part cm-3, respectively. The total particle concentrations were usually higher outdoors than indoors, because no indoor sources were detected. I/O measured was less than 1 (varying in a relatively narrow range from 0.63 to 0.74), however one school exhibited indoor concentrations higher than outdoor during the morning rush hours. Particle size distribution at the outdoor site showed high particle concentrations in different size ranges, varying during the day; in relation to the starting and finishing of school time two modes were found. BC concentrations were 5 times higher at the urban school compared with the suburban and suburban-to-urban differences were larger than the relative differences of ultrafine particle concentrations.

Mesopic rod and S-cone interactions revealed by modulation thresholds

We analyzed mesopic rod and S-cone interactions in terms of their contributions to the blue-yellow opponent pathway. Stimuli were generated using a 4-primary colorimeter. Mixed rod and S-cone modulation thresholds (constant L-, M-cone excitation) were measured as a function of their phase difference. Modulation amplitude was equated using threshold units and contrast ratios. This study identified three interaction types: (1) A linear and antagonistic rod:S-cone interaction, (2) probability summation (3) and a previously unidentified mutual nonlinear reinforcement. Linear rod:S-cone interactions occur within the blue-yellow opponent pathway. Probability summation involves signaling by different post-receptoral pathways. The origin of the nonlinear reinforcement is possibly at the photoreceptors.

Analysis of Cone-Beam CT using prior information

Treatment plans for conformal radiotherapy are based on an initial CT scan. The aim is to deliver the prescribed dose to the tumour, while minimising exposure to nearby organs. Recent advances make it possible to also obtain a Cone-Beam CT (CBCT) scan, once the patient has been positioned for treatment. A statistical model will be developed to compare these CBCT scans with the initial CT scan. Changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour and organs will be detected and quantified. Some progress has already been made in segmentation of prostate CBCT scans [1],[2],[3]. However, none of the existing approaches have taken full advantage of the prior information that is available. The planning CT scan is expertly annotated with contours of the tumour and nearby sensitive objects. This data is specific to the individual patient and can be viewed as a snapshot of spatial information at a point in time. There is an abundance of studies in the radiotherapy literature that describe the amount of variation in the relevant organs between treatments. The findings from these studies can form a basis for estimating the degree of uncertainty. All of this information can be incorporated as an informative prior into a Bayesian statistical model. This model will be developed using scans of CT phantoms, which are objects with known geometry. Thus, the accuracy of the model can be evaluated objectively. This will also enable comparison between alternative models.

An investigation into factors affecting electron density calibration for a megavoltage cone-beam CT system

There is a growing interest in the use of megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography (MV CBCT) data for radiotherapy treatment planning. To calculate accurate dose distributions, knowledge of the electron density (ED) of the tissues being irradiated is required. In the case of MV CBCT, it is necessary to determine a calibration-relating CT number to ED, utilizing the photon beam produced for MV CBCT. A number of different parameters can affect this calibration. This study was undertaken on the Siemens MV CBCT system, MVision, to evaluate the effect of the following parameters on the reconstructed CT pixel value to ED calibration: the number of monitor units (MUs) used (5, 8, 15 and 60 MUs), the image reconstruction filter (head and neck, and pelvis), reconstruction matrix size (256 by 256 and 512 by 512), and the addition of extra solid water surrounding the ED phantom. A Gammex electron density CT phantom containing EDs from 0.292 to 1.707 was imaged under each of these conditions. The linear relationship between MV CBCT pixel value and ED was demonstrated for all MU settings and over the range of EDs. Changes in MU number did not dramatically alter the MV CBCT ED calibration. The use of different reconstruction filters was found to affect the MV CBCT ED calibration, as was the addition of solid water surrounding the phantom. Dose distributions from treatment plans calculated with simulated image data from a 15 MU head and neck reconstruction filter MV CBCT image and a MV CBCT ED calibration curve from the image data parameters and a 15 MU pelvis reconstruction filter showed small and clinically insignificant differences. Thus, the use of a single MV CBCT ED calibration curve is unlikely to result in any clinical differences. However, to ensure minimal uncertainties in dose reporting, MV CBCT ED calibration measurements could be carried out using parameter-specific calibration measurements.

Temporal dynamics of rod and cone photoreceptor interactions under mesopic illumination

Purpose: Photoreceptor interactions reduce the temporal bandwidth of the visual system under mesopic illumination. The dynamics of these interactions are not clear. This study investigated cone-cone and rod-cone interactions when the rod (R) and three cone (L, M, S) photoreceptor classes contribute to vision via shared post-receptoral pathways. Methods: A four-primary photostimulator independently controlled photoreceptor activity in human observers. To determine the temporal dynamics of receptoral (L, S, R) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR, +L-M) pathways (5 Td, 7° eccentricity) in Experiment 1, ON-pathway sensitivity was assayed with an incremental probe (25ms) presented relative to onset of an incremental sawtooth conditioning pulse (1000ms). To define the post-receptoral pathways mediating the rod stimulus, Experiment 2 matched the color appearance of increased rod activation (30% contrast, 25-1000ms; constant cone excitation) with cone stimuli (variable L+M, L/L+M, S/L+M; constant rod excitation). Results: Cone-cone interactions with luminance stimuli (LMS, LMSR, L-cone) reduced Weber contrast sensitivity by 13% and the time course of adaptation was 23.7±1ms (μ±SE). With chromatic stimuli (+L-M, S), cone pathway sensitivity was also reduced and recovery was slower (+L-M 8%, 2.9±0.1ms; S 38%, 1.5±0.3ms). Threshold patterns at ON-conditioning pulse onset were monophasic for luminance and biphasic for chromatic stimuli. Rod-rod interactions increased sensitivity(19%) with a recovery time of 0.7±0.2ms. Compared to cone-cone interactions, rod-cone interactions with luminance stimuli reduced sensitivity to a lesser degree (5%) with faster recovery (42.9±0.7ms). Rod-cone interactions were absent with chromatic stimuli. Experiment 2 showed that rod activation generated luminance (L+M) signals at all durations, and chromatic signals (L/L+M, S/L+M) for durations >75ms. Conclusions: Temporal dynamics of cone-cone interactions are consistent with contrast sensitivity loss in the MC pathway for luminance stimuli and chromatically opponent responses in the PC and KC pathway with chromatic stimuli. Rod-cone interactions limit contrast sensitivity loss during dynamic illumination changes and increase the speed of mesopic light adaptation. The change in relative weighting of the temporal rod signal within the major post-receptoral pathways modifies the sensitivity and dynamics of photoreceptor interactions.

Pressure ulcers in the adult intensive care unit : a literature review of patient risk factors and risk assessment scales

Background: Critically ill patients are at high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development due to their high acuity and the invasive nature of the multiple interventions and therapies they receive. With reported incidence rates of PrU development in the adult critical care population as high as 56%, the identification of patients at high risk of PrU development is essential. This paper will explore the association between PrU development and risk factors. It will also explore PrU development and the use of risk assessment scales for critically ill patients in adult intensive care units. Method: A literature search from 2000 to 2012 using the CINHAL, Cochrane Library, EBSCOHost, Medline (via EBSCOHost), PubMed, ProQuest and Google Scholar databases was conducted. Key words used were: pressure ulcer/s; pressure sore/s; decubitus ulcer/s; bed sore/s; critical care; intensive care; critical illness; prevalence; incidence; prevention; management; risk factor; risk assessment scale. Results: Nineteen articles were included in this review; eight studies addressing PrU risk factors, eight studies addressing risk assessment scales and three studies overlapping both. Results from the studies reviewed identified 28 intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors which may lead to PrU development. Development of a risk factor prediction model in this patient population, although beneficial, appears problematic due to many issues such as diverse diagnoses and subsequent patient needs. Additionally, several risk assessment instruments have been developed for early screening of patients at higher risk of developing PrU in the ICU. No existing risk assessment scales are valid for identification high risk critically ill patient,with the majority of scales potentially over-predicting patients at risk for PrU development. Conclusion: Research studies to inform the risk factors for potential pressure ulcer development are inconsistent. Additionally, there is no consistent or clear evidence which demonstrates any scale to better or more effective than another when used to identify the patients at risk for PrU development. Furthermore robust research is needed to identify the risk factors and develop valid scales for measuring the risk of PrU development in ICU.

Rod and cone pathway signaling and interaction under mesopic illumination

This study investigates the time-course and post-receptoral pathway signaling of photoreceptor interactions when the rod (R) and three cone (L, M, S) photoreceptor classes contribute to mesopic vision. A four-primary photostimulator independently controls photoreceptor activity in human observers. The first experiment defines the temporal adaptation response of receptoral (L-, S-cone, rod) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR,+L-M) signaling and interactions. Here we show that nonopponent cone-cone interactions (L-cone, LMS, LMSR) have monophasic temporal response patterns whereas opponent signals (+L-M, S-cone) show biphasic response patterns with slower recovery. By comparison, rod-cone interactions with nonopponent signals have faster adaptation responses and reduced sensitivity loss whereas opponent rod-cone interactions are small or absent. Additionally, the rod-rod interaction differs from these interaction types and acts to increase rod sensitivity due to temporal summation but with a slower time course. The second experiment shows that the temporal profile of the rod signal alters the relative rod contributions to the three primary post-receptoral pathways. We demonstrate that rod signals generate luminance (þLþM) signals mediated via the MC pathway with all rod temporal profiles and chromatic signals (L/LþM, S/LþM) in both the PC and KC pathways with durations .75 ms. Thus, we propose that the change in relative weighting of rod signals within the post-receptoral pathways contributes to the sensitivity and temporal response of rod and cone pathway signaling and interactions.

Pixel value to electron density conversion for a Megavoltage Cone Beam CT System

Introduction: The motivation for developing megavoltage (and kilovoltage) cone beam CT (MV CBCT) capabilities in the radiotherapy treatment room was primarily based on the need to improve patient set-up accuracy. There has recently been an interest in using the cone beam CT data for treatment planning. Accurate treatment planning, however, requires knowledge of the electron density of the tissues receiving radiation in order to calculate dose distributions. This is obtained from CT, utilising a conversion between CT number and electron density of various tissues. The use of MV CBCT has particular advantages compared to treatment planning with kilovoltage CT in the presence of high atomic number materials and requires the conversion of pixel values from the image sets to electron density. Therefore, a study was undertaken to characterise the pixel value to electron density relationship for the Siemens MV CBCT system, MVision, and determine the effect, if any, of differing the number of monitor units used for acquisition. If a significant difference with number of monitor units was seen then pixel value to ED conversions may be required for each of the clinical settings. The calibration of the MV CT images for electron density offers the possibility for a daily recalculation of the dose distribution and the introduction of new adaptive radiotherapy treatment strategies. Methods: A Gammex Electron Density CT Phantom was imaged with the MVCB CT system. The pixel value for each of the sixteen inserts, which ranged from 0.292 to 1.707 relative electron density to the background solid water, was determined by taking the mean value from within a region of interest centred on the insert, over 5 slices within the centre of the phantom. These results were averaged and plotted against the relative electron densities of each insert with a linear least squares fit was preformed. This procedure was performed for images acquired with 5, 8, 15 and 60 monitor units. Results: The linear relationship between MVCT pixel value and ED was demonstrated for all monitor unit settings and over a range of electron densities. The number of monitor units utilised was found to have no significant impact on this relationship. Discussion: It was found that the number of MU utilised does not significantly alter the pixel value obtained for different ED materials. However, to ensure the most accurate and reproducible MV to ED calibration, one MU setting should be chosen and used routinely. To ensure accuracy for the clinical situation this MU setting should correspond to that which is used clinically. If more than one MU setting is used clinically then an average of the CT values acquired with different numbers of MU could be utilized without loss in accuracy. Conclusions: No significant differences have been shown between the pixel value to ED conversion for the Siemens MV CT cone beam unit with change in monitor units. Thus as single conversion curve could be utilised for MV CT treatment planning. To fully utilise MV CT imaging for radiotherapy treatment planning further work will be undertaken to ensure all corrections have been made and dose calculations verified. These dose calculations may be either for treatment planning purposes or for reconstructing the delivered dose distribution from transit dosimetry measurements made using electronic portal imaging devices. This will potentially allow the cumulative dose distribution to be determined through the patient’s multi-fraction treatment and adaptive treatment strategies developed to optimize the tumour response.

The ability of YSR DSM-oriented depression scales to predict DSM-IV depression in young adults : a longitudinal study

Background The Achenbach child behaviour checklist (CBCL/YSR) is a widely used screening tool for affective problems. Several studies report good association between the checklists and psychiatric diagnoses; although with varying degrees of agreement. Most are cross-sectional studies involving adolescents referred to mental health services. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the youth self report (YSR) empirical and DSM-oriented internalising scales in predicting later depressive disorders in young adults. Methods Sample was 2431 young adults from an Australian birth cohort study. The strength of association between the empirical and DSM-oriented scales assessed at 14 and 21 years and structured-interview derived depression in young adulthood (18 to 22 years) were tested using odds ratios, ROC analyses and related diagnostic efficiency tests (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values). Results Adolescents with internalising symptoms were twice (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.7 to 3.1) as likely to be diagnosed with DSM-IV depression by age 21. Use of DSM-oriented depressive scales did not improve the concordance between the internalising behaviour and DSM-IV diagnosed depression at age 14 (ORs ranged from 1.9 to 2.5). Limitations Some loss to follow-up over the 7-year gap between the two waves of follow-up. Conclusion DSM-oriented scales perform no better than the standard internalising or anxious/depressed scales in identifying young adults with later DSM-IV depressive disorder.

Predicting depressive and anxiety disorders with the YASR internalising scales (empirical and DSM-oriented)

Background The Achenbach problem behaviour scales (CBCL/YSR) are widely used. The DSM-oriented anxiety and depression scales have been created to improve concordance between Achenbach’s internalising scales and DSM-IV depression and anxiety. To date no study has examined the concurrent utility of the young adult (YASR) internalising scales, either the empirical or newly developed DSM-oriented depressive or anxiety scales. Methods A sample of 2,551 young adults, aged 18–23 years, from an Australian cohort study. The association between the empirical and DSM-oriented anxiety and depression scales were individually assessed against DSMIV depression and anxiety diagnoses derived from structured interview. Odds ratios, ROC analyses and diagnostic efficiency tests (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values) were used to report findings. Results YASR empirical internalising scale predicted DSM-IV mood disorders (depression OR = 6.9, 95% CI 5.0–9.5; anxiety OR = 5.1, 95% CI 3.8–6.7) in the previous 12 months. DSM-oriented depressive or anxiety scales did not appear to improve the concordance with DSM-IV diagnosed depression or anxiety. The internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with comorbid depression and anxiety, with Ors between 10.1 and 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. Conclusion DSM-oriented scales perform no better than the standard internalising in identifying young adults with DSM-IV mood or anxiety disorder.

Segmentation of cone-beam CT using a hidden Markov random field with informative priors

Purpose: Flat-detector, cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. Methods: The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field (MRF) model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk (OAR). The voxel labels are estimated using the iterated conditional modes (ICM) algorithm. Results: The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom (CIRS, Inc. model 062). The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. Conclusions: By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.

Segmentation of cone-beam CT using a hidden Markov random field with informative priors

Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk. The voxel labels are estimated using iterated conditional modes. The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom. The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2\%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.

Cone signals and activity in myopia and emmetropia

Myopia (short-sightedness) is a common ocular disorder of children and young adults. Studies primarily using animal models have shown that the retina controls eye growth and the outer retina is likely to have a key role. One theory is that the proportion of L (long-wavelength-sensitive) and M (medium-wavelength-sensitive) cones is related to myopia development; with a high L/M cone ratio predisposing individuals to myopia. However, not all dichromats (persons with red-green colour vision deficiency) with extreme L/M cone ratios have high refractive errors. We predict that the L/M cone ratio will vary in individuals with normal trichromatic colour vision but not show a systematic difference simply due to refractive error. The aim of this study was to determine if L/M cone ratios in the central 30° are different between myopic and emmetropic young, colour normal adults. Information about L/M cone ratios was determined using the multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP). The mfVEP can be used to measure the response of visual cortex to different visual stimuli. The visual stimuli were generated and measurements performed using the Visual Evoked Response Imaging System (VERIS 5.1). The mfVEP was measured when the L and M cone systems were separately stimulated using the method of silent substitution. The method of silent substitution alters the output of three primary lights, each with physically different spectral distributions to control the excitation of one or more photoreceptor classes without changing the excitation of the unmodulated photoreceptor classes. The stimulus was a dartboard array subtending 30° horizontally and 30° vertically on a calibrated LCD screen. The m-sequence of the stimulus was 215-1. The N1-P1 amplitude ratio of the mfVEP was used to estimate the L/M cone ratio. Data were collected for 30 young adults (22 to 33 years of age), consisting of 10 emmetropes (+0.3±0.4 D) and 20 myopes (–3.4±1.7 D). The stimulus and analysis techniques were confirmed using responses of two dichromats. For the entire participant group, the estimated central L/M cone ratios ranged from 0.56 to 1.80 in the central 3°-13° diameter ring and from 0.94 to 1.91 in the more peripheral 13°-30° diameter ring. Within 3°-13°, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.20±0.33 and the mean was similar, 1.20±0.26, for the myopic group. For the 13°-30° ring, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.48±0.27 and it was slightly lower in the myopic group, 1.30±0.27. Independent-samples t-test indicated no significant difference between the L/M cone ratios of the emmetropic and myopic group for either the central 3°-13° ring (p=0.986) or the more peripheral 13°-30° ring (p=0.108). The similar distributions of estimated L/M cone ratios in the sample of emmetropes and myopes indicates that there is likely to be no association between the L/M cone ratio and refractive error in humans.

The ISR and ESR scales : measures of the project manager-stakeholder relationship

In this paper, we develop two stakeholder relationships scales. These scales assess project managers’ perceived competence in establishing and maintaining high quality, effective relationships with people internal to the project as well as those stakeholders who are external to the project. We developed the scales using an online survey study of three hundred and seventy three complex project managers from a sub-set of the Australian Defence Industry. Both the internal stakeholder relationships’ scale and the external stakeholder relationships’ scale demonstrated validity and reliability. This research has implications for the interpersonal work relationships’ literature and the stakeholder management literature. We recommend future research tests these scales with multiple samples, across different project types and project industries. The stakeholder relationships’ scales should be versatile enough to be applied to project management generally but are best suited to large-scale complex project environments.