Geographic Variation of Notified Ross River Virus Infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (chi2(df = 2) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.

Economic evaluation and catheter-related bloodstream infections

Catheter-related bloodstream infections are a serious problem. Many interventions reduce risk, and some have been evaluated in cost-effectiveness studies. We review the usefulness and quality of these economic studies. Evidence is incomplete, and data required to inform a coherent policy are missing. The cost-effectiveness studies are characterized by a lack of transparency, short time-horizons, and narrow economic perspectives. Data quality is low for some important model parameters. Authors of future economic evaluations should aim to model the complete policy and not just single interventions. They should be rigorous in developing the structure of the economic model, include all relevant economic outcomes, use a systematic approach for selecting data sources for model parameters, and propagate the effect of uncertainty in model parameters on conclusions. This will inform future data collection and improve our understanding of the economics of preventing these infections.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Persistent chlamydial infections : role in inflammation and challenges for vaccine development.

The development of chlamydial vaccines continues to be a major challenge for researchers. While acute infections are the main target of vaccine development groups, Chlamydia is well known for its ability to establish chronic or persistent infections in its host. To date, little effort has focussed specifically on the challenges of vaccines to successfully combat the chronic or persistent phase of the disease and yet this will be a necessary aspect of any fully successful chlamydial vaccine. This short review specifically examines the phenomenon of chlamydial persistence and the unique challenges that this brings to vaccine development.

Spatial analysis of notified cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: This study explored the spatial distribution of notified cryptosporidiosis cases and identified major socioeconomic factors associated with the transmission of cryptosporidiosis in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained the computerized data sets on the notified cryptosporidiosis cases and their key socioeconomic factors by statistical local area (SLA) in Brisbane for the period of 1996 to 2004 from the Queensland Department of Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. We used spatial empirical Bayes rates smoothing to estimate the spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis cases. A spatial classification and regression tree (CART) model was developed to explore the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the incidence rates of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Spatial empirical Bayes analysis reveals that the cryptosporidiosis infections were primarily concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Brisbane. A spatial CART model shows that the relative risk for cryptosporidiosis transmission was 2.4 when the value of the social economic index for areas (SEIFA) was over 1028 and the proportion of residents with low educational attainment in an SLA exceeded 8.8%. Conclusions: There was remarkable variation in spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane. Spatial pattern of cryptosporidiosis seems to be associated with SEIFA and the proportion of residents with low education attainment.

Prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus strains in an Australian cohort, 1989-2003 : evidence for the low prevalence of the toxic shock toxin and Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes

The purpose of this paper is to determine the prevalence of the toxic shock toxin gene (tst) and to enumerate the circulating strains of methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in Australian isolates collected over two decades. The aim was to subtype these strains using the binary genes pvl, cna, sdrE, pUB110 and pT181. Isolates were assayed using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for mecA, nuc, 16 S rRNA, eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and for five binary genes. Two realtime PCR assays were developed for tst. The 90 MRSA isolates belonged to CC239 (39 in 1989, 38 in 1996 and ten in 2003), CC1 (two in 2003) and CC22 (one in 2003). The majority of the 210 MSSA isolates belonged to CC1 (26), CC5 (24) and CC78 (23). Only 18 isolates were tst-positive and only 15 were pvl-positive. Nine MSSA isolates belonged to five binary types of ST93, including two pvlpositive types. The proportion of tst-positive and pvl-positive isolates was low and no significant increase was demonstrated. Dominant MSSA clonal complexes were similar to those seen elsewhere, with the exception of CC78. CC239 MRSA (AUS-2/3) was the predominant MRSA but decreased significantly in prevalence, while CC22 (EMRSA-15) and CC1 (WA-1) emerged. Genetically diverse ST93 MSSA predated the emergence of ST93- MRSA (the Queensland clone).

Phylogenetically distinct Staphylococcus aureus lineage prevalent among indigenous communities in northern Australia

The aim was to determine the evolutionary position of the Staphylococcus aureus clonal complex 75 (CC75) that is prevalent in tropical northern Australia. Sequencing of gap, rpoB, sodA, tuf, and hsp60 and the multilocus sequence typing loci revealed a clear separation between conventional S. aureus and CC75 and significant diversity within CC75.