Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Charge-carrier velocity distributions in high-mobility polymer dual-gate thin-film transistors

We report charge-carrier velocity distributions in high-mobility polymer thin-film transistors (PTFTs) employing a dual-gate configuration. Our time-domain measurements of dual-gate PTFTs indicate higher effective mobility as well as fewer low-velocity carriers than in single-gate operation. Such nonquasi-static (NQS) measurements support and clarify the previously reported results of improved device performance in dual-gate devices by various groups. We believe that this letter demonstrates the utility of NQS measurements in studying charge-carrier transport in dual-gate thin-film transistors.

Wheeze, asthma diagnosis and medication use : a national adult survey in a developing country

Background As relatively little is known about adult wheeze and asthma in developing countries, this study aimed to determine the predictors of wheeze, asthma diagnosis, and current treatment in a national survey of South African adults. Methods A stratified national probability sample of households was drawn and all adults (>14 years) in the selected households were interviewed. Outcomes of interest were recent wheeze, asthma diagnosis, and current use of asthma medication. Predictors of interest were sex, age, household asset index, education, racial group, urban residence, medical insurance, domestic exposure to smoky fuels, occupational exposure, smoking, body mass index, and past tuberculosis. Results A total of 5671 men and 8155 women were studied. Although recent wheeze was reported by 14.4% of men and 17.6% of women and asthma diagnosis by 3.7% of men and 3.8% of women, women were less likely than men to be on current treatment (OR 0.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5 to 0.8). A history of tuberculosis was an independent predictor of both recent wheeze (OR 3.4; 95% CI 2.5 to 4.7) and asthma diagnosis (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.2), as was occupational exposure (wheeze: OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.0; asthma diagnosis: OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.4). Smoking was associated with wheeze but not asthma diagnosis. Obesity showed an association with wheeze only in younger women. Both wheeze and asthma diagnosis were more prevalent in those with less education but had no association with the asset index. Independently, having medical insurance was associated with a higher prevalence of diagnosis. Conclusions Some of the findings may be to due to reporting bias and heterogeneity of the categories wheeze and asthma diagnosis, which may overlap with post tuberculous airways obstruction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease due to smoking and occupational exposures. The results underline the importance of controlling tuberculosis and occupational exposures as well as smoking in reducing chronic respiratory morbidity. Validation of the asthma questionnaire in this setting and research into the pathophysiology of post tuberculous airways obstruction are also needed.

Bio-hydrogen production from food waste through anaerobic fermentation

In order to protect our planet and ourselves from the adverse effects of excessive CO2 emissions and to prevent an imminent non-renewable fossil fuel shortage and energy crisis, there is a need to transform our current ‘fossil fuel dependent’ energy systems to new, clean, renewable energy sources. The world has recognized hydrogen as an energy carrier that complies with all the environmental quality and energy security, demands. This research aimed at producing hydrogen through anaerobic fermentation, using food waste as the substrate. Four food waste substrates were used: Rice, fish, vegetable and their mixture. Bio-hydrogen production was performed in lab scale reactors, using 250 mL serum bottles. The food waste was first mixed with the anaerobic sewage sludge and incubated at 37°C for 31 days (acclimatization). The anaerobic sewage sludge was then heat treated at 80°C for 15 min. The experiment was conducted at an initial pH of 5.5 and temperatures of 27, 35 and 55°C. The maximum cumulative hydrogen produced by rice, fish, vegetable and mixed food waste substrates were highest at 37°C (Rice =26.97±0.76 mL, fish = 89.70±1.25 mL, vegetable = 42.00±1.76 mL, mixed = 108.90±1.42 mL). A comparative study of acclimatized (the different food waste substrates were mixed with anaerobic sewage sludge and incubated at 37°C for 31days) and non-acclimatized food waste substrate (food waste that was not incubated with anaerobic sewage sludge) showed that acclimatized food waste substrate enhanced bio-hydrogen production by 90 - 100%.

The role of non-thermal plasma technique in {NOx} treatment: A review

Non-thermal plasma (NTP) has been introduced over the past several years as a promising method for nitrogen oxide (NOx) removal. The intent, when using NTP, is to selectively transfer input electrical energy to the electrons, and to not expend this in heating the entire gas stream, which generates free radicals through collisions, and promotes the desired chemical changes in the exhaust gases. The generated active species react with the pollutant molecules and decompose them. This paper reviews and summarizes relevant literature regarding various aspects of the application of {NTP} technology on {NOx} removal from exhaust gases. A comprehensive description of available scientific literature on {NOx} removal using {NTP} technology is presented, including various types of NTP, e.g. dielectric barrier discharge, corona discharge and electron beam. Furthermore, the combination of {NTP} with catalyst and adsorbent for better {NOx} removal efficiency is presented in detail. The removal of {NOx} from both simulated gases and real diesel engines is also considered in this review paper. As {NTP} is a new technique and is not yet commercialized, there is a need for more studies to be performed in this field.

Common variants in the CYP2C19 gene are associated with susceptibility to endometriosis

Objective: To follow-up previous studies highlighting a possible role for cytochrome P450, family 2, subfamily C, 19 (CYP2C19) in susceptibility to endometriosis by searching for additional variants in the CYP2C19 gene that may be associated with the disease. Design Case-control study. Setting Academic research. Subject(s) The cases comprised 2,271 women with surgically confirmed endometriosis; the controls comprised 939 women with self-report of no endometriosis and 1,770 unscreened population samples. Intervention(s) Sequencing of the CYP2C19 region and follow-up of 80 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in two case-control samples. Main Outcome Measure(s) Allele frequency differences between cases and controls. Result(s) Sequencing of the CYP2C19 gene region resulted in the detection of a large number of known and novel SNPs. Genotyping of 80 polymorphic SNPs in 901 endometriosis cases and 939 controls resulted in study-wide significant association signals for SNPs in moderate or complete linkage disequilibrium with rs4244285, a functional SNP in exon 5 that abrogates CYP2C19 function through the creation of an alternative splice site. Evidence of association was also detected for another functional SNP in the CYP2C19 promoter, rs12248560, which was highlighted in our previous study. Conclusion(s) Functional variants in CYP2C19 may contribute to endometriosis susceptibility in both familial and sporadic cases. © 2014 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.

A preliminary OSL chronology for coastal dunes on Moreton island, Queensland, Australia – Marginal deposits of A large-scale quaternary shelf sediment system

Moreton Island and several other large siliceous sand dune islands and mainland barrier deposits in SE Queensland represent the distal, onshore component of an extensive Quaternary continental shelf sediment system. This sediment has been transported up to 1000 km along the coast and shelf of SE Australia over multiple glacioeustatic sea-level cycles. Stratigraphic relationships and a preliminary Optically Stimulated Luminance (OSL) chronology for Moreton Island indicate a middle Pleistocene age for the large majority of the deposit. Dune units exposed in the centre of the island and on the east coast have OSL ages that indicate deposition occurred between approximately 540 ka and 350 ka BP, and at around 96±10 ka BP. Much of the southern half of the island has a veneer of much younger sediment, with OSL ages of 0.90±0.11 ka, 1.28±0.16 ka, 5.75±0.53 ka and <0.45 ka BP. The younger deposits were partially derived from the reworking of the upper leached zone of the much older dunes. A large parabolic dune at the northern end of the island, OSL age of 9.90±1.0 ka BP, and palaeosol exposures that extend below present sea level suggest the Pleistocene dunes were sourced from shorelines positioned several to tens of metres lower than, and up to few kilometres seaward of the present shoreline. Given the lower gradient of the inner shelf a few km seaward of the island, it seems likely that periods of intermediate sea level (e.g. ~20 m below present) produced strongly positive onshore sediment budgets and the mobilisation of dunes inland to form much of what now comprises Moreton Island. The new OSL ages and comprehensive OSL chronology for the Cooloola deposit, 100 km north of Moreton Island, indicate that the bulk of the coastal dune deposits in SE Queensland were emplaced between approximately 540 ka BP and prior to the Last Interglacial. This chronostratigraphic information improves our fundamental understanding of long-term sediment transport and accumulation on large-scale continental shelf sediment systems.

Agent-based simulation as a component of mixed methods in entrepreneurship research

As a new research method supplementing the existing qualitative and quantitative approaches, agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) may fit well within the entrepreneurship field because the core concepts and basic premises of entrepreneurship coincide with the characteristics of ABMS (McKelvey, 2004; Yang & Chandra, 2013). Agent-based simulation is a simulation method based on agent-based models. The agentbased models are composed of heterogeneous agents and their behavioural rules. By repeatedly carrying out agent-based simulations on a computer, the simulations reproduce each agent’s behaviour, their interactive process, and the emerging macroscopic phenomenon according to the flow of time. Using agent-based simulations, researchers may investigate temporal or dynamic effects of each agent’s behaviours.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association for migraine in six population-based European cohorts

Migraine is a common neurological disorder with a genetically complex background. This paper describes a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies on migraine, performed by the Dutch-Icelandic migraine genetics (DICE) consortium, which brings together six population-based European migraine cohorts with a total sample size of 10,980 individuals (2446 cases and 8534 controls). A total of 32 SNPs showed marginal evidence for association at a P-value<10(-5). The best result was obtained for SNP rs9908234, which had a P-value of 8.00 x 10(-8). This top SNP is located in the nerve growth factor receptor (NGFR) gene. However, this SNP did not replicate in three cohorts from the Netherlands and Australia. Of the other 31 SNPs, 18 SNPs were tested in two replication cohorts, but none replicated. In addition, we explored previously identified candidate genes in the meta-analysis data set. This revealed a modest gene-based significant association between migraine and the metadherin (MTDH) gene, previously identified in the first clinic-based GWA study (GWAS) for migraine (Bonferroni-corrected gene-based P-value=0.026). This finding is consistent with the involvement of the glutamate pathway in migraine. Additional research is necessary to further confirm the involvement of glutamate.