Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Molecular characterisation of six badnavirus species associated with leaf streak disease of banana in East Africa

Banana leaf streak disease, caused by several species of Banana streak virus (BSV), is widespread in East Africa. We surveyed for this disease in Uganda and Kenya, and used rolling-circle amplification (RCA) to detect the presence of BSV in banana. Six distinct badnavirus sequences, three from Uganda and three from Kenya, were amplified for which only partial sequences were previously available. The complete genomes were sequenced and characterised. The size and organisation of all six sequences was characteristic of other badnaviruses, including conserved functional domains present in the putative polyprotein encoded by open reading frame (ORF) 3. Based on nucleotide sequence analysis within the reverse transcriptase/ribonuclease H-coding region of open reading frame 3, we propose that these sequences be recognised as six new species and be designated as Banana streak UA virus, Banana streak UI virus, Banana streak UL virus, Banana streak UM virus, Banana streak CA virus and Banana streak IM virus. Using PCR and species-specific primers to test for the presence of integrated sequences, we demonstrated that sequences with high similarity to BSIMV only were present in several banana cultivars which had tested negative for episomal BSV sequences.

A longitudinal study of the relationship between lifestyle and mental health among midlife and older women in Australia : findings from the Healthy Aging of Women Study

We investigated the temporal relationship between lifestyle and mental health among 564 midlife women. The mental health measured included anxiety, depression, and mental well-being; the lifestyle measures included body mass index (BMI), exercise, smoking, alcohol use, and caffeine consumption. We found that BMI was positively related with mental well-being (r = .316, p = .009); smokers had lower mental well-being than nonsmokers (β = 6.725, p = .006), and noncaffeine drinkers had higher mental well-being (β = 5, p = .023). Past alcohol-drinkers had less anxiety than nondrinkers (β = 1.135, p = .04). Therefore, lifestyle is predictive of mental health among midlife and older women.

Citizen consultation from above and below : the Australian perspective

Citizen engagement and e‐government initiatives in Australia remain somewhat underdeveloped, not least for a number of fundamental structural reasons. Fledgling initiatives can be divided into a number of broad categories, including top‐down government consultation through blogs and similar experimental online sites operated by government departments; bottom‐up NGO‐driven watchdog initiatives such as GetUp!’s Project Democracy site, modelled on projects established in the UK; and a variety of more or less successful attempts by politicians (and their media handlers) to utilise social networking tools to connect with constituents while bypassing the mainstream media. This chapter explores these initiatives, and discusses the varying levels of success which they have found to date.

Environmental aspects and challenges of oilseed produced biodiesel in Southeast Asia

Research on alternative fuel for the vehemently growing number of automotivesis intensified due to environmental reasons rather than turmoil in energy price and supply. From the policy and steps to emphasis the use of biofuel by governments all around the world, this can be comprehended that biofuel have placed itself as a number one substitute for fossil fuels. These phenomena made Southeast Asia a prominent exporter of biodiesel. But thrust in biodiesel production from oilseeds of palm and Jatropha curcas in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand is seriously threatening environmental harmony. This paper focuses on this critical issue of biodiesels environmental impacts, policy, standardization of this region as well as on the emission of biodiesel in automotive uses. To draw a bottom line on feasibilities of different feedstock of biodiesel, a critical analysis on oilseed yield rate, land use, engine emissions and oxidation stability is reviewed. Palm oil based biodiesel is clearly ahead in all these aspects of feasibility, except in the case of NOx where it lags from conventional petro diesel.

The nature of caregiving in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis from multiple sources and the associations between caregiving activities and youth adjustment overtime

This study explored youth caregiving for a parent with multiple sclerosis (MS) from multiple perspectives, and examined associations between caregiving and child negative (behavioural emotional difficulties, somatisation) and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, prosocial behaviour) adjustment outcomes overtime. A total of 88 families participated; 85 parents with MS, 55 partners and 130 children completed questionnaires at Time 1. Child caregiving was assessed by the Youth Activities of Caregiving Scale (YACS). Child and parent questionnaire data were collected at Time 1 and child data were collected 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the child and parent YACS data replicated the four factors (instrumental, social-emotional, personal-intimate, domestic-household care), all of which were psychometrically sound. The YACS factors were related to parental illness and caregiving context variables that reflected increased caregiving demands. The Time 1 instrumental and social-emotional care domains were associated with poorer Time 2 adjustment, whereas personal-intimate was related to better adjustment and domestic-household care was unrelated to adjustment. Children and their parents exhibited highest agreement on personal-intimate, instrumental and total caregiving, and least on domestic-household and social-emotional care. Findings delineate the key dimensions of young caregiving in MS and the differential links between caregiving activities and youth adjustment.

Instability prolongs the chondral phase during bone healing in sheep

In this sheep study, we investigated the influence of fixation stability on the temporal and spatial distribution of tissues in the fracture callus. As the initial mechanical conditions have been cited as being especially important for the healing outcome, it was hypothesized that differences in the path of healing would be seen as early as the initial phase of healing. ----- ----- Sixty-four sheep underwent a mid-shaft tibial osteotomy that was treated with either a rigid or a semi-rigid external fixator. Animals were sacrificed at 2, 3, 6 and 9 weeks postoperatively and the fracture calluses were analyzed using radiological, biomechanical and histological techniques. Statistical comparison between the groups was performed using the Mann–Whitney U test for unpaired non-parametric data. ----- ----- In the callus of the tibia treated with semi-rigid fixation, remnants of the fracture haematoma remained present for longer, although new periosteal bone formation during early healing was similar in both groups. The mechanical competence of the healing callus at 6 weeks was inferior compared to tibiae treated with rigid fixation. Semi-rigid fixation resulted in a larger cartilage component of the callus, which persisted longer. Remodeling processes were initiated earlier in the rigid group, while new bone formation continued throughout the entire investigated period in the semi-rigid group. ----- ----- In this study, evidence is provided that less rigid fixation increased the time required for healing. The process of intramembranous ossification appeared during the initial stages of healing to be independent of mechanical stability. However, the delay in healing was related to a prolonged chondral phase.

An infrared study of adsorption of paranitrophenol on mono, di and trialkyl surfactant intercalated organoclays

Infrared spectroscopy has been used to study the adsorption of paranitrophenol on mono, di and tri alkyl surfactant intercalated montmorillonite. Organoclays were obtained by the cationic exchange of mono, di and tri alkyl chain surfactants for sodium ions [hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (HDTMAB), dimethyldioctadecylammonium bromide (DDOAB), methyltrioctadecylammonium bromide (MTOAB)] in an aqueous solution with Na-montmorillonite. Upon formation of the organoclay, the properties change from strongly hydrophilic to strongly hydrophobic. This change in surface properties is observed by a decrease in intensity of the OH stretching vibrations assigned to water in the cation hydration sphere of the montmorillonite. As the cation is replaced by the surfactant molecules the paranitrophenol replaces the surfactant molecules in the clay interlayer. Bands attributed to CH stretching and bending vibrations change for the surfactant intercalated montmorillonite. Strong changes occur in the HCH deformation modes of the methyl groups of the surfactant. These changes are attributed to the methyl groups locking into the siloxane surface of the montmorillonite. Such a concept is supported by changes in the SiO stretching bands of the montmorillonite siloxane surface. This study demonstrates that paranitrophenol will penetrate into the untreated clay interlayer and replace the intercalated surfactant in surfactant modified clay, resulting in the change of the arrangement of the intercalated surfactant.

Driving performance impairments due to hypovigilance on monotonous roads

Drivers' ability to react to unpredictable events deteriorates when exposed to highly predictable and uneventful driving tasks. Highway design reduces the driving task mainly to a lane-keeping manoeuvre. Such a task is monotonous, providing little stimulation and this contributes to crashes due to inattention. Research has shown that driver's hypovigilance can be assessed with EEG measurements and that driving performance is impaired during prolonged monotonous driving tasks. This paper aims to show that two dimensions of monotony - namely road design and road side variability - decrease vigilance and impair driving performance. This is the first study correlating hypovigilance and driver performance in varied monotonous conditions, particularly on a short time scale (a few seconds). We induced vigilance decrement as assessed with an EEG during a monotonous driving simulator experiment. Road monotony was varied through both road design and road side variability. The driver's decrease in vigilance occurred due to both road design and road scenery monotony and almost independently of the driver's sensation seeking level. Such impairment was also correlated to observable measurements from the driver, the car and the environment. During periods of hypovigilance, the driving performance impairment affected lane positioning, time to lane crossing, blink frequency, heart rate variability and non-specific electrodermal response rates. This work lays the foundation for the development of an in-vehicle device preventing hypovigilance crashes on monotonous roads.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

Why do family firms congregate in certain industries?

We propose that family firm involvement and performance across industries is not random and is related to specific industry conditions. Using the population of listed companies on the Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period 1997-2007 we find that family firms are more involved in industries with more fixed assets, consistent with the long-term view of family owners, and in industry conditions that make it potentially easier for family owners to consume private benefits of control. Overall, we document a positive relationship between family firm involvement and performance, which indicates a net advantage for family firm shareholders in industries where family firms congregate. However, we also find that family firm performance is negatively affected when family firms use more debt and maintain a higher control wedge than their industry counterparts.

Comment

The support vector machine (SVM) has played an important role in bringing certain themes to the fore in computationally oriented statistics. However, it is important to place the SVM in context as but one member of a class of closely related algorithms for nonlinear classification. As we discuss, several of the “open problems” identified by the authors have in fact been the subject of a significant literature, a literature that may have been missed because it has been aimed not only at the SVM but at a broader family of algorithms. Keeping the broader class of algorithms in mind also helps to make clear that the SVM involves certain specific algorithmic choices, some of which have favorable consequences and others of which have unfavorable consequences—both in theory and in practice. The broader context helps to clarify the ties of the SVM to the surrounding statistical literature.