Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Can tissue engineering concepts advance tumor biology research?

Advances in tissue engineering have traditionally led to the design of scaffold- or matrix-based culture systems that better reflect the biological, physical and biochemical environment of the natural extracellular matrix. Although their clinical applications in regenerative medicine tend to receive most of the attention, it is obvious that other areas of biomedical research could be well served by the powerful tools that have already been developed in tissue engineering. In this article, we review the recent literature to demonstrate how tissue engineering platforms can enhance in vitro and in vivo models of tumorigenesis and thus hold great promise to contribute to future cancer research.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Load on osseointegrated fixation of a transfemoral amputee during a fall : loading, descent, impact and recovery analysis

Falling represents a health risk for lower limb amputees fitted with an osseointegrated fixation mainly because of the potential damage to the fixation. The purpose of this study was to characterise a real forward fall that occurred inadvertently to a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation while attending a gait measurement session to assess the load applied on the residuum. The objective was to analyse the load applied on the fixation with an emphasis on the sequence of events, the pattern and the magnitude of the forces and moments. The load was measured directly at 200 Hz using a six-channel transducer. Complementary video footage was also studied. The fall was divided into four phases: loading (240 ms), descent (620 ms), impact (365 ms) and recovery (2495 ms). The main impact forces and moments occurred 870 ms and 915 ms after the heel contact, and corresponded to 133 %BW and 17 %BWm, or 1.2 and 11.2 times the maximum forces and moments applied during the previous steps of the participant, respectively. This study provided key information to engineers and clinicians facing the challenge to design equipment, and rehabilitation and exercise programs to restore safely the locomotion of lower limb amputees.

Are East Asian companies benefiting from western board practices?

Since the Asian crisis, East Asian nations have strived to introduce corporate governance codes, directing companies how to best improve their corporate governance practices. However, these codes have not been universally accepted by East Asian companies. This study examines the adoption of major board-related corporate governance recommendations by large nonfinancial companies in seven East Asian nations and investigates whether improvements in these board governance mechanisms have been associated with increased operating performance and market value. The results indicate that family-owned companies started with worse board governance and have been least likely to improve their board governance since the crisis. Overall, bigger, faster growing, non-family-owned companies with less concentrated ownership have been more likely to improve their board governance. Splitting of the positions of Chairman and CEO, creation of audit and nomination committees and improvements in overall board governance were found to have a positive relationship with subsequent operating performance and/or market value.

Next Generation ‘Filmmaking’: New Markets, New Methods and New Business Models

Digital production and distribution technologies may create new opportunities for filmmaking in Australia. A culture of new approaches to filmmaking is emerging driven by ‘next generation filmmakers’ who are willing to consider new business models: from online web series to short films produced for mobile phones. At the same time cultural representation itself is transforming within an interactive, social media driven environment. Yet there is very little research into next generation filmmaking. The aim of this paper is to scope and discuss three key aspects of next generation filmmaking, namely: digital trends in film distribution and marketing; processes and strategies of ‘next generation’ filmmakers; and case studies of viable next generation business models and filmmaking practices. We conclude with a brief examination of the implications for media and cultural policy which suggests the future possibility of a rapprochement between creative industries discourse and cultural policy.

The Changing world and service problems in bankruptcy

In an age where financial transactions are conducted worldwide and mobility of citizens throughout the world is common, lawyers seeking to serve Bankruptcy Notices and Creditor’s Petitions encounter many problems. To assist lawyers in overcoming some of the service problems that are arising as a result of this changing world, a number of recent cases are considered that highlight a number of issues, including American Express Australia Limited v Michaels [2010] FMCA 103, Deputy Commissioner of Taxation v Barnes (2008) 70 ATR 776; [2008] FMCA 7, Battenberg v Restom & Ors (2005) 223 ALR 692; upheld by the Full Federal Court in Battenberg v Restrom and Ors (2006) 149 FCR 128 at 133; [2006] FCAFC 20 and Envee Energy Pty Ltd (In Liquidation) v Stockford [2007] FMCA 1426. While the fact situation of every bankruptcy case will differ, recent decisions may assist lawyers in dealing effectively with bankruptcy matters in these times of transition. Lawyers can facilitate completion of the litigious process within the relevant legislative framework in order to satisfy their responsibility to clients and to the Court by considering this case law.

Cholecystokinin and leptin: their influence upon the eating behaviour and nutrient intake of dialysis patients

Background We have used serial visual analogue scores to demonstrate disturbances of the appetite profile in dialysis patients. This is potentially important as dialysis patients are prone to malnutrition yet have a lower nutrient intake than controls. Appetite disturbance may be influenced by accumulation of appetite inhibitors such as leptin and cholecystokinin (CCK) in dialysis patients. Methods Fasting blood samples were drawn from 43 controls, 50 haemodialysis (HD) and 39 peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients to measure leptin and CCK. Hunger and fullness scores were derived from profiles compiled using hourly visual analogue scores. Nutrient intake was derived from 3 day dietary records. Results Fasting CCK was elevated for PD (6.73 ± 4.42 ng/l vs control 4.99 ± 2.23 ng/l, P < 0.05; vs HD 4.43 ± 2.15 ng/l, P < 0.01). Fasting CCK correlated with the variability of the hunger (r = 0.426, P = 0.01) and fullness (r = 0.52, P = 0.002) scores for PD. There was a notable relationship with the increase in fullness after lunch for PD (r = 0.455, P = 0.006). When well nourished PD patients were compared with their malnourished counterparts, CCK was higher in the malnourished group (P = 0.004). Leptin levels were higher for the dialysis patients than controls (HD and PD, P < 0.001) with pronounced hyperleptinaemia evident in some PD patients. Control leptin levels demonstrated correlation with fullness scores (e.g. peak fullness, r = 0.45, P = 0.007) but the dialysis patients did not. PD nutrient intake (energy and protein intake, r = -0.56, P < 0.0001) demonstrated significant negative correlation with leptin. Conclusion Increased CCK levels appear to influence fullness and hunger perception in PD patients and thus may contribute to malnutrition. Leptin does not appear to affect perceived appetite in dialysis patients but it may influence nutrient intake in PD patients via central feeding centres.

Evolution of vocational rehabilitation competencies in Australia

Over the past decade, there has been growth in the delivery of vocational rehabilitation services globally, as countries seek to control disability-related expenditure, yet there has been minimal research outside the United States on competencies required to work in this area. This study reports on research conducted in Australia to determine current job function and knowledge areas in terms of their importance and frequency of use in the provision of vocational rehabilitation. A survey comprising items from the Rehabilitation Skills Inventory-Amended and International Survey of Disability Management was completed by 149 rehabilitation counselors and items submitted to factor analysis. T-tests and analyses of variance were used to determine differences between scores of importance and frequency and differences in scores based on work setting and professional training. Six factors were identified as important and frequently used: (i) vocational counseling, (ii) professional practice, (iii) personal counseling, (iv) rehabilitation case management, (v) workplace disability case management, and (vi) workplace intervention and program management. Vocational counseling, professional practice and personal counseling were significantly more important and performed more frequently by respondents in vocational rehabilitation settings than those in compensation settings. These same three factors were rated significantly higher in importance and frequency by those with rehabilitation counselor training when compared with those with other training. In conclusion, although ‘traditional’ knowledge and skill areas such as vocational counseling, professional practice, and personal counseling were identified as central to vocational rehabilitation practice in Australian rehabilitation agencies, mean ratings suggest a growing emphasis on knowledge and skills associated with disability management practice.

Validation of the Algase Wandering Scale (Version 2) in a cross cultural sample

This study examined the psychometric properties of an expanded version of the Algase Wandering Scale (Version 2) (AWS-V2) in a cross-cultural sample. A cross-sectional survey design was used. Study subjects were 172 English-speaking persons with dementia (PWD) from long-term care facilities in the USA, Canada, and Australia. Two or more facility staff rated each subject on the AWS-V2. Demographic and cognitive data (MMSE) were also obtained. Staff provided information on their own knowledge of the subject and of dementia. Separate factor analyses on data from two samples of raters each explained greater than 66% of the variance in AWS-V2 scores and validated four (persistent walking, navigational deficit, eloping behavior, and shadowing) of five factors in the original scale. Items added to create the AWS-V2 strengthened the shadowing subscale, failed to improve the routinized walking subscale, and added a factor, attention shifting as compared to the original AWS. Evidence for validity was found in significant correlations and ANOVAs between the AWS-V2 and most subscales with a single item indicator of wandering and with the MMSE. Evidence of reliability was shown by internal consistency of the AWS-V2 (0.87, 0.88) and its subscales (range 0.88 to 0.66), with Kappa for individual items (17 of 27 greater than 0.4), and ANOVAs comparing ratings across rater groups (nurses, nurse aids, and other staff). Analyses support validity and reliability of the AWS-V2 overall and for persistent walking, spatial disorientation, and eloping behavior subscales. The AWS-V2 and its subscales are an appropriate way to measure wandering as conceptualized within the Need-driven Dementia-compromised Behavior Model in studies of English-speaking subjects. Suggestions for further strengthening the scale and for extending its use to clinical applications are described.

Safety culture research, lead indicators, and the development of safety effectiveness indicators in the construction sector

Construction sector application of Lead Indicators generally and Positive Performance Indicators (PPIs) particularly, are largely seen by the sector as not providing generalizable indicators of safety effectiveness. Similarly, safety culture is often cited as an essential factor in improving safety performance, yet there is no known reliable way of measuring safety culture. This paper proposes that the accurate measurement of safety effectiveness and safety culture is a requirement for assessing safe behaviours, safety knowledge, effective communication and safety performance. Currently there are no standard national or international safety effectiveness indicators (SEIs) that are accepted by the construction industry. The challenge is that quantitative survey instruments developed for measuring safety culture and/ or safety climate are inherently flawed methodologically and do not produce reliable and representative data concerning attitudes to safety. Measures that combine quantitative and qualitative components are needed to provide a clear utility for safety effectiveness indicators.

On the feasibility of using servo-mechanisms in wireless multimedia sensor network deployments

This paper considers the use of servo-mechanisms as part of a tightly integrated homogeneous Wireless Multi- media Sensor Network (WMSN). We describe the design of our second generation WMSN node platform, which has increased image resolution, in-built audio sensors, PIR sensors, and servo- mechanisms. These devices have a wide disparity in their energy consumption and in the information quality they return. As a result, we propose a framework that establishes a hierarchy of devices (sensors and actuators) within the node and uses frequent sampling of cheaper devices to trigger the activation of more energy-hungry devices. Within this framework, we consider the suitability of servos for WMSNs by examining the functional characteristics and by measuring the energy consumption of 2 analog and 2 digital servos, in order to determine their impact on overall node energy cost. We also implement a simple version of our hierarchical sampling framework to evaluate the energy consumption of servos relative to other node components. The evaluation results show that: (1) the energy consumption of servos is small relative to audio/image signal processing energy cost in WMSN nodes; (2) digital servos do not necessarily consume as much energy as is currently believed; and (3) the energy cost per degree panning is lower for larger panning angles.

User characteristics of transit oriented developments : the case of Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Transit oriented developments are high density mixed use developments located within short and easily walkable distance of a major transit centre. These developments are often hypothesised as a means of enticing a mode shift from the private car to sustainable transport modes such as, walking, cycling and public transport. However, it is important to gather evidence to test this hypothesis by determining the travel characteristics of transit oriented developments users. For this purpose, travel surveys were conducted for an urban transit oriented development currently under development. This chapter presents the findings from the preliminary data analysis of the travel surveys. Kelvin Grove Urban Village, a mixed use development located in Brisbane, Australia, has been selected as the case for the transit oriented developments study. Travel data for all groups of transit oriented development users ranging from students to shoppers, and residents to employees were collected. Different survey instruments were used for different transit oriented development users to optimise their response rates, and the performance of these survey instruments are stated herein. The travel characteristics of transit oriented development users are reported in this chapter by explaining mode share, trip length distribution, and time of day of trip. The results of the travel survey reveal that Kelvin Grove Urban Village users use more sustainable modes of transport as compared to other Brisbane residents.