Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparative study of guidelines and practices for building infrastructure asset management

This paper presents a comparative study of primarily Australian (and limited international) practices and guidelines on Buildings Asset Management (BAM). The objective of this study was to identify potential gaps in current practices and potential areas of research for further improvement. The paper starts with an overview of BAM. Later sections cover current BAM practices and guidelines across different states of Australia; give a limited overview of international practices and concludes with the authors’ observations.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Simulation of the nutrient supply in fracture healing

The healing process for bone fractures is sensitive to mechanical stability and blood supply at the fracture site. Most currently available mechanobiological algorithms of bone healing are based solely on mechanical stimuli, while the explicit analysis of revascularization and its influences on the healing process have not been thoroughly investigated in the literature. In this paper, revascularization was described by two separate processes: angiogenesis and nutrition supply. The mathematical models for angiogenesis and nutrition supply have been proposed and integrated into an existing fuzzy algorithm of fracture healing. The computational algorithm of fracture healing, consisting of stress analysis, analyses of angiogenesis and nutrient supply, and tissue differentiation, has been tested on and compared with animal experimental results published previously. The simulation results showed that, for a small and medium-sized fracture gap, the nutrient supply is sufficient for bone healing, for a large fracture gap, non-union may be induced either by deficient nutrient supply or inadequate mechanical conditions. The comparisons with experimental results demonstrated that the improved computational algorithm is able to simulate a broad spectrum of fracture healing cases and to predict and explain delayed unions and non-union induced by large gap sizes and different mechanical conditions. The new algorithm will allow the simulation of more realistic clinical fracture healing cases with various fracture gaps and geometries and may be helpful to optimise implants and methods for fracture fixation.

Extending the advanced forensic format to accommodate multiple data sources, logical evidence, arbitrary information and forensic workflow

Forensic analysis requires the acquisition and management of many different types of evidence, including individual disk drives, RAID sets, network packets, memory images, and extracted files. Often the same evidence is reviewed by several different tools or examiners in different locations. We propose a backwards-compatible redesign of the Advanced Forensic Formatdan open, extensible file format for storing and sharing of evidence, arbitrary case related information and analysis results among different tools. The new specification, termed AFF4, is designed to be simple to implement, built upon the well supported ZIP file format specification. Furthermore, the AFF4 implementation has downward comparability with existing AFF files.

On analysing and interpreting variability in motor output

A recent article in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport by Chapman et al.1 reported data from an empirical investigation comparing lower extremity joint motions, joint coordination and muscle recruitment in expert and novice cyclists. 3D kinematic and intramuscular electromyographic (EMG) analyses revealed no differences between expert and novice cyclists for normalised joint angles and velocities of the pelvis, hip, knee and ankle. However, significant differences in the strength of sagittal plane kinematics for hip–ankle and knee–ankle joint couplings were reported, with expert cyclists displaying tighter coupling relationships than novice cyclists. Furthermore, significant differences between expert and novice cyclists for all muscle recruitment parameters, except timing of peak EMG amplitude, were also reported.

Comparing subjective and objective measures of health : Evidence from hypertension for the income/health gradient

Economists rely heavily on self-reported measures to examine the relationship between income and health. We directly compare survey responses of a self-reported measure of health that is commonly used in nationally representative surveys with objective measures of the same health condition. We focus on hypertension. We find no evidence of an income/health greadient using self-reported hypertension but a sizeable gradient when using objectively measured hypertension. We also find that the probability of a false negative reporting is significantly income graded. Our results suggest that using commonly available self-reported chronic health measures might underestimate true income-related inequalities in health.

The efficacy of an augmented virtual reality system to alleviate pain in children undergoing burns dressing changes : a randomised controlled trial

In children, the pain and anxiety associated with acute burn dressing changes can be severe, with drug treatment alone frequently proving to be inadequate. Virtual reality (VR) systems have been successfully trialled in limited numbers of adult and paediatric burn patients. Augmented reality (AR) differs from VR in that it overlays virtual images onto the physical world, instead of creating a complete virtual world. This prospective randomised controlled trial investigated the use of AR as an adjunct to analgesia and sedation in children with acute burns. Forty-two children (30 male and 12 female), with an age range of 3–14 years (median age 9 years) and a total burn surface area ranging from 1 to 16% were randomised into a treatment (AR) arm and a control (basic cognitive therapy) arm after administration of analgesia and/or sedation. Pain scores, pulse rates (PR), respiratory rates (RR) and oxygen saturations (SaO2) were recorded pre-procedurally, at 10 min intervals and post-procedurally. Parents were also asked to grade their child's overall pain score for the dressing change. Mean pain scores were significantly lower (p = 0.0060) in the AR group compared to the control group, as were parental pain assessment scores (p = 0.015). Respiratory and pulse rates showed significant changes over time within groups, however, these were not significantly different between the two study groups. Oxygen saturation did not differ significantly over time or between the two study groups. This trial shows that augmented reality is a useful adjunct to pharmacological analgesia.

Apparatus for monitoring load bearing rehabilitation exercises of a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation : a proof-of-concept study

The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to determine the relevance of direct measurements to monitor the load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of transfemoral amputees during static load bearing exercises. The objectives were (A) to introduce an apparatus using a three-dimensional load transducer, (B) to present a range of derived information relevant to clinicians, (C) to report on the outcomes of a pilot study and (D) to compare the measurements from the transducer with those from the current method using a weighing scale. One transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated implant was asked to apply 10 kg, 20 kg, 40 kg and 80 kg on the fixation, using self-monitoring with the weighing scale. The loading was directly measured with a portable kinetic system including a six-channel transducer, external interface circuitry and a laptop. As the load prescribed increased from 10 kg to 80 kg, the forces and moments applied on and around the antero-posterior axis increased by 4 fold anteriorly and 14 fold medially, respectively. The forces and moments applied on and around the medio-lateral axis increased by 9 fold laterally and 16 fold from anterior to posterior, respectively. The long axis of the fixation was overloaded and underloaded in 17 % and 83 % of the trials, respectively, by up to ±10 %. This proof-of-concept study presents an apparatus that can be used by clinicians facing the challenge of improving basic knowledge on osseointegration, for the design of equipment for load bearing exercises and for rehabilitation programs.

Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud used for the removal of arsenate, vanadate and molybdate from aqueous solutions.

The effectiveness of using thermally activated hydrotalcite materials has been investigated for the removal of arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate in individual and mixed solutions. Results show that increasing the Mg,Al ratio to 4:1 causes an increase in the percentage of anions removed from solution. The order of affinity of the three anions analysed in this investigation is arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate. By comparisons with several synthetic hydrotalcite materials, the hydrotalcite structure in the seawater neutralised red mud (SWN-RM) has been determined to consist of magnesium and aluminium with a ratio between 3.5:1 and 4:1. Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud removes at least twice the concentration of anionic species than thermally activated red mud alone, due to the formation of 40 to 60 % Bayer hydrotalcite during the neutralisation process.

Factors associated with recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a survey and retrospective chart review

Background: Chronic venous leg ulcers have a significant impact on older individuals’ well-being and health care resources. Unfortunately after healing, up to 70% recur. ----- Objective: To examine the relationships between leg ulcer recurrence and physical activity, compression, nutrition, health, psychosocial indicators and self-care activities in order to provide information for preventive strategies. ----- Design: Survey and retrospective chart review Settings: Two metropolitan hospital and three community-based leg ulcer clinics. ----- Subjects: A sample of 122 community living patients with leg ulcer of venous aetiology which had healed between 12 and 36 months prior to the survey. ---- Methods: Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and previous ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer recurrences and history, compression and other self-care activities. All variables significantly associated with recurrence at the bivariate level were entered into a logistic regression model to determine their independent influences on recurrence. ----- Results: Median follow-up time was 24 months (range 12–40 months). Sixty-eight percent of participants had recurred. Bivariate analysis found recurrence was positively associated with ulcer duration, cardiac disease, a Body Mass Index ≤20, scoring as at-risk of malnutrition and depression; and negatively associated with increased physical activity, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or Class 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, and higher self-efficacy scores. After adjusting for all variables, an hour/day of leg elevation (OR=0.04, 95% CI=0.01–0.17), days/week in Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.34–0.81), Yale Physical Activity Survey score (OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.92–0.98), cardiac disease (OR=5.03, 95% CI=1.01–24.93) and General Self-Efficacy scores (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.72–0.94) remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. ----- Conclusions: Results indicate a history of cardiac disease is a risk factor for recurrence; while leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UAVs attitude, height, motion estimation and control using visual systems

This paper presents an implementation of an aircraft pose and motion estimator using visual systems as the principal sensor for controlling an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) or as a redundant system for an Inertial Measure Unit (IMU) and gyros sensors. First, we explore the applications of the unified theory for central catadioptric cameras for attitude and heading estimation, explaining how the skyline is projected on the catadioptric image and how it is segmented and used to calculate the UAV’s attitude. Then we use appearance images to obtain a visual compass, and we calculate the relative rotation and heading of the aerial vehicle. Additionally, we show the use of a stereo system to calculate the aircraft height and to measure the UAV’s motion. Finally, we present a visual tracking system based on Fuzzy controllers working in both a UAV and a camera pan and tilt platform. Every part is tested using the UAV COLIBRI platform to validate the different approaches, which include comparison of the estimated data with the inertial values measured onboard the helicopter platform and the validation of the tracking schemes on real flights.

Optical absorption, infrared, Raman and EPR spectral studies on natural Iowaite mineral

Natural iowaite, magnesium–ferric oxychloride mineral having light green color originating from Australia has been characterized by EPR, optical, IR, and Raman spectroscopy. The optical spectrum exhibits a number of electronic bands due to both Fe(III) and Mn(II) ions in iowaite. From EPR studies, the g values are calculated for Fe(III) and g and A values for Mn(II). EPR and optical absorption studies confirm that Fe(III) and Mn(II) are in distorted octahedral geometry. The bands that appear both in NIR and Raman spectra are due to the overtones and combinations of water and carbonate molecules. Thus EPR, optical, and Raman spectroscopy have proven most useful for the study of the chemistry of natural iowaite and chemical changes in the mineral.