Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Axial length and choroidal thickness changes accompanying prolonged accommodation in myopes and emmetropes

The time course of elongation and recovery of axial length associated with a 30 minute accommodative task was studied using optical low coherence reflectometry in a population of young adult myopic (n = 37) and emmetropic (n = 22) subjects. Ten of the 59 subjects were excluded from analysis either due to inconsistent accommodative response, or incomplete anterior biometry data. Those subjects with valid data (n = 49) were found to exhibit a significant axial elongation immediately following the commencement of a 30 minute, 4 D accommodation task, which was sustained for the duration of the task, and ¬was evident to a lesser extent immediately following task cessation. During the accommodation task, on average, the myopic subjects exhibited 22 ± 34 µm, and the emmetropic subjects 6 ± 22 µm of axial elongation, however the differences in axial elongation between the myopic and emmetropic subjects were not statistically significant (p = 0.136). Immediately following the completion of the task, the myopic subjects still exhibited an axial elongation (mean magnitude 12 ± 28 µm), that was significantly greater (p < 0.05) than the changes in axial length observed in the emmetropic subjects (mean change -3 ± 16 µm). Axial length had returned to baseline levels 10 minutes after completion of the accommodation task. The time for recovery from accommodation-induced axial elongation was greater in myopes, which may reflect differences in the biomechanical properties of the globe associated with refractive error. Changes in subfoveal choroidal thickness were able to be measured in 37 of the 59 subjects, and a small amount of choroidal thinning was observed during the accommodation task that was statistically significant in the myopic subjects (p < 0.05). These subfoveal choroidal changes could account for some but not all of the increased axial length during accommodation.

Corneal changes following short-term rigid contact lens wear

Purpose: The aim of this cross-over study was to investigate the changes in corneal thickness, anterior and posterior corneal topography, corneal refractive power and ocular wavefront aberrations, following the short term use of rigid contact lenses. Method: Fourteen participants wore 4 different types of contact lenses (RGP lenses of 9.5 mm and 10.5 mm diameter, and for comparison a PMMA lens of 9.5 mm diameter and a soft silicone hydrogel lens) on 4 different days for a period of 8 h on each day. Measures were collected before and after contact lens wear and additionally on a baseline day. Results: Anterior corneal curvature generally showed a flattening with both of the RGP lenses and a steepening with the PMMA lens. A significant negative correlation was found between the change in corneal swelling and central and peripheral posterior corneal curvature (all p ≤ 0.001). RGP contact lenses caused a significant decrease in corneal refractive power (hyperopic shift) of approximately 0.5 D. The PMMA contact lenses caused the greatest corneal swelling in both the central (27.92 ± 15.49 μm, p < 0.001) and peripheral (17.78 ± 12.11 μm, p = 0.001) corneal regions, a significant flattening of the posterior cornea and an increase in ocular aberrations (all p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: The corneal swelling associated with RGP lenses was relatively minor, but there was slight central corneal flattening and a clinically significant hyperopic change in corneal refractive power after the first day of lens wear. The PMMA contact lenses resulted in significant corneal swelling and reduced optical performance of the cornea.

Axial length changes with shifts of gaze direction in myopes and emmetropes

Purpose. The purpose of the study was to investigate the changes in axial length occurring with shifts in gaze direction. Methods. Axial length measurements were obtained from the left eye of 30 young adults (10 emmetropes, 10 low myopes, and 10 moderate myopes) through a rotating prism with 15° deviation, along the foveal axis, using a noncontact optical biometer in each of the nine different cardinal directions of gaze over 5 minutes. The subject's fellow eye fixated on an external distance (6 m) target to control accommodation, also with 15° deviation. Axial length measurements were also performed in 15° and 25° downward gaze with the biometer inclined on a tilting table, allowing gaze shifts to be achieved with either full head turn but no eye turn, or full eye turn with no head turn. Results. There was a significant influence of gaze angle and time on axial length (both P < 0.001), with the greatest axial elongation (+18 ± 8 μm) occurring with inferonasal gaze (P < 0.001) and a slight decrease in axial length in superior gaze (−12 ± 17 μm) compared with primary gaze (P < 0.001). In downward gaze, a significant axial elongation occurred when eye turn was used (P < 0.001), but not when head turn was used to shift gaze (P > 0.05). Conclusions. The angle of gaze has a small but significant short-term effect on axial length, with greatest elongation occurring in inferonasal gaze. The elongation of the eye appears to be due to the influence of the extraocular muscles, in particular the oblique muscles.

Monocular myopic defocus and daily changes in axial length and choroidal thickness of human eyes

Recent research indicates that brief periods (60 minutes) of monocular defocus lead to small but significant changes in human axial length. However, the effects of longer periods of defocus on the axial length of human eyes are unknown. We examined the influence of a 12 hour period of monocular myopic defocus on the natural daily variations occurring in axial length and choroidal thickness of young adult emmetropes. A series of axial length and choroidal thickness measurements (collected at ~3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm) were obtained for 13 emmetropic young adults over three consecutive days. The natural daily rhythms (Day 1, baseline day, no defocus), the daily rhythms with monocular myopic defocus (Day 2, defocus day, +1.50 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, recovery day, no defocus) were all examined. Significant variations over the course of the day were observed in both axial length and choroidal thickness on each of the three measurement days (p<0.0001). The magnitude and timing of the daily variations in axial length and choroidal thickness were significantly altered with the monocular myopic defocus on day 2 (p<0.0001). Following the introduction of monocular myopic defocus, the daily peak in axial length occurred approximately 6 hours later, and the peak in choroidal thickness approximately 8.5 hours earlier in the day compared to days 1 and 3 (with no defocus). The mean amplitude (peak to trough) of change in axial length (0.030 ± 0.012 on day 1, 0.020 ± 0.010 on day 2 and 0.033 ± 0.012 mm on day 3) and choroidal thickness (0.030 ± 0.007 on day 1, 0.022 ± 0.006 on day 2 and 0.027 ± 0.009 mm on day 3) were also significantly different between the three days (both p<0.05). The introduction of monocular myopic defocus disrupts the daily variations in axial length and choroidal thickness of human eyes (in terms of both amplitude and timing) that return to normal the following day after removal of the defocus.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Measurement of structural changes to a food material during dehydration

Rates of dehydration/rehydration are important quality parameters for dried products. Theoretically, if there are no adverse effects on the integrity of the tissue structure, it should absorb water to the same moisture content of the initial product before drying.The purpose of this work is to semi-automate the process of detection of cell structure boundaries as a food is dehydrated and rehydrated. This will enable food materials researchers to quantify changes to material’s structure as these processes take place. Images of potato cells as they were dehydrated and rehydrated were taken using an electron microscope. Cell boundaries were detected using an image processing algorithm. Average cell area and perimeter at each stage of dehydration were calculated and plotted versus time. The results show that the algorithm can successfully identify cell boundaries.

First year design "Visualisation II": The hybridisation of analogue and digital tools

This paper discusses first year students’ responses and outcomes to the integration of digital technologies in their second semester foundational visualisation class; ‘Visualisation II’. As the second class in the Visualisation series, previous analogue knowledge taught in ‘Visualisation I’ is compounded with new digital technologies establishing the introduction to a myriad of hybrid visualisation tools and techniques for design exploration and design artefact. This research examines the differentiation between analogue and digital design, common precedents of the two, and reflects upon the environment and class structure with the learning experiences and confidence of surveyed participants.

What are the implications of peri-urban agriculture on food security in Australian cities?

Background: Periurban agriculture refers to agricultural practice occurring in areas with mixed rural and urban features. It is responsible 25% of the total gross value of economic production in Australia, despite only comprising 3% of the land used for agriculture. As populations grows and cities expand, they are constantly absorbing surrounding fringe areas, thus creating a new fringe, further from the city causing the periurban region to constantly shift outwards. Periurban regions are fundamental in the provision of fresh food to city populations and residential (and industrial) expansion taking over agricultural land has been noted as a major worldwide concern. Another major concern around the increase in urbanisation and resultant decrease in periurban agriculture is its potential effect on food security. Food security is the availability or access to nutritionally-adequate, culturally-relevant and safe foods in culturally-appropriate ways. Thus food insecurity occurs when access to or availability of these foods is compromised. There is an important level of connectedness between food security and food production and a decrease in periurban agriculture may have adverse effects on food security. A decrease in local, seasonal produce may result in a decrease in the availability of products and an increase in cost, as food must travel greater distances, incurring extra costs present at the consumer level. Currently, few Australian studies exist examining the change in periurban agriculture over time. Such information may prove useful for future health policy and interventions as well as infrastructure planning. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in periurban agriculture among capital cities of Australia. Methods: We compared data pertaining to selected commodities from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000-01 and 2005 -2006 Agricultural Census. This survey is distributed online or via mail on a five-yearly basis to approximately 175,000 Agricultural business to ascertain information on a range of factors, such as types of crops, livestock and land preparation practices. For the purpose of this study we compared the land being used for total crops, and cereal , oil seed, legume, fruit and vegetable crops separately. Data was analysed using repeated measures anova in spss. Results: Overall, total area available for crops in urbanised areas of Australia increased slightly by 1.8%. However, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in the area available for fruit crops by 11%, 5%,and 4% respectively. Furthermore, Brisbane and Perth experienced decreases in land available for vegetable crops by 28% and 14% respectively. Finally, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in land available for cereal crops by 10 – 79%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that population increases and consequent urban sprawl may be resulting in a decrease in peri-urban agriculture, specifically for several core food groups including fruit, breads and grain based foods. In doing so, access to or availability of these foods may be limited, and the cost of these foods is likely to increase, which may compromise food insecurity for certain sub-groups of the population.

Post-match changes in neuromuscular function and the relationship to match demands in amateur rugby league matches

Objectives: The current study investigated the change in neuromuscular contractile properties following competitive rugby league matches and the relationship with physical match demands. Design: Eleven trained, male rugby league players participated in 2–3 amateur, competitive matches (n = 30). Methods: Prior to, immediately (within 15-min) and 2 h post-match, players performed repeated counter-movement jumps (CMJ) followed by isometric tests on the right knee extensors for maximal voluntary contraction (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch contractile properties of peak twitch force (Pt), rate of torque development (RTD), contraction duration (CD) and relaxation rate (RR). During each match, players wore 1 Hz Global Positioning Satellite devices to record distance and speeds of matches. Further, matches were filmed and underwent notational analysis for number of total body collisions. Results: Total, high-intensity, very-high intensity distances covered and mean speed were 5585 ± 1078 m, 661 ± 265, 216 ± 121 m and 75 ± 14 m min−1, respectively. MVC was significantly reduced immediately and 2 h post-match by 8 ± 11 and 12 ± 13% from pre-match (p < 0.05). Moreover, twitch contractile properties indicated a suppression of Pt, RTD and RR immediately post-match (p < 0.05). However, VA was not significantly altered from pre-match (90 ± 9%), immediately-post (89 ± 9%) or 2 h post (89 ± 8%), (p > 0.05). Correlation analyses indicated that total playing time (r = −0.50) and mean speed (r = −0.40) were moderately associated to the change in post-match MVC, while mean speed (r = 0.35) was moderately associated to VA. Conclusions: The present study highlights the physical demands of competitive amateur rugby league result in interruption of peripheral contractile function, and post-match voluntary torque suppression may be associated with match playing time and mean speeds.

Variation in risk seeking behavior in a natural experiment following a large negative wealth shock induced by a natural disaster

An ongoing challenge in behavioral economics is to understand the variations observed in risk attitudes as a function of their environmental context. Of particular interest is the effect of wealth on risk attitudes. The research in this area has however faced two constraints: the difficulty to study the causal effects of large changes in wealth, and the causal effects of losses on risk behavior. The present paper address this double limitation by providing evidence of the variation of risk attitude after large losses using a natural disaster (Brisbane floods) as the setting for a natural experiment.

A particle-based micromechanics approach to simulate structural changes of plant cells during drying

This paper is concerned with applying a particle-based approach to simulate the micro-level cellular structural changes of plant cells during drying. The objective of the investigation was to relate the micro-level structural properties such as cell area, diameter and perimeter to the change of moisture content of the cell. Model assumes a simplified cell which consists of two basic components, cell wall and cell fluid. The cell fluid is assumed to be a Newtonian fluid with higher viscosity compared to water and cell wall is assumed to be a visco-elastic solid boundary located around the cell fluid. Cell fluid is modelled with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique and for the cell wall; a Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used. The developed model is two-dimensional, but accounts for three-dimensional physical properties of real plant cells. Drying phenomena is simulated as fluid mass reductions and the model is used to predict the above mentioned structural properties as a function of cell fluid mass. Model predictions are found to be in fairly good agreement with experimental data in literature and the particle-based approach is demonstrated to be suitable for numerical studies of drying related structural deformations. Also a sensitivity analysis is included to demonstrate the influence of key model parameters to model predictions.

Analyses of systems theory for construction accident prevention with specific reference to OSHA accident reports

To enhance workplace safety in the construction industry it is important to understand interrelationships among safety risk factors associated with construction accidents. This study incorporates the systems theory into Heinrich’s domino theory to explore the interrelationships of risks and break the chain of accident causation. Through both empirical and statistical analyses of 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, the study investigates relationships between accidents and injury elements (e.g., injury type, part of body, injury severity) and the nature of construction injuries by accident type. The study then discusses relationships between accidents and risks, including worker behavior, injury source, and environmental condition, and identifies key risk factors and risk combinations causing accidents. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to prioritize risks according to the likelihood of accident occurrence and injury characteristics, and pay more attention to balancing significant risk relationships to prevent accidents and achieve safer working environments.