The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.

Control, performance management system and identification processes

Is it possible to control identities using performance management systems (PMSs)? This paper explores the theoretical fusion of management accounting and identity studies, providing a synthesised view of control, PMSs and identification processes. It argues that the effective use of PMSs generates a range of obtrusive mechanistic and unobtrusive organic controls that mediate identification processes to achieve a high level of identity congruency between individuals and collectives—groups and organisations. This paper contends that mechanistic control of PMSs provides sensebreaking effects and also creates structural conditions for sensegiving in top-down identification processes. These processes encourage individuals to continue the bottom-up processes of sensemaking, enacting identity and constructing identity narratives. Over time, PMS activities and conversations periodically mediate several episode(s) of identification to connect past, current and future identities. To explore this relationship, the dual locus of control—collectives and individuals—is emphasised to explicate their interplay. This multidisciplinary approach contributes to explaining the multidirectional effects of PMSs in obtrusive as well as unobtrusive ways, in order to control the nature of collectives and individuals in organisations.

Identification of early-stage colorectal cancer patients at risk of relapse post-resection by immunobead reverse transcription-PCR analysis of peritoneal lavage fluid for malignant cells

Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

Special Measures in Indigenous Welfare Reform: Examining the Cape York Trial

The Cape York Welfare Reform (‘CYWR’) trial was due to expire at the end of 2011. In October 2011, the Queensland Government voted to extend the trial until the end of 2013. In November 2011, the Federal Minister for Indigenous Affairs announced changes to the Social Security (Administration) Act 1999 (Cth) that will extend another similar welfare reform, the School Enrolment and Attendance through Welfare Reform Measure (‘SEAM’), throughout other parts of Australia. This article examines the CYWR with reference to the Racial Discrimination Act 1975 (Cth) (‘RDA’), using the data available in the publications from the Family Responsibilities Commission (‘FRC’).It finds no clear evidence that the reforms have been effective in improving social conditions thus far and, as such, serious concerns as to whether the CYWR breaches the RDA.

The development of a conceptual framework for a district 4-Year Pavement Management Plan, implementation of network-level project screening process

The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) is concerned about the widening gap between preservation needs and available funding. Funding levels are not adequate to meet the preservation needs of the roadway network; therefore projects listed in the 4-Year Pavement Management Plan must be ranked to determine which projects should be funded now and which can be postponed until a later year. Currently, each district uses locally developed methods to prioritize projects. These ranking methods have relied on less formal qualitative assessments based on engineers’ subjective judgment. It is important for TxDOT to have a 4-Year Pavement Management Plan that uses a transparent, rational project ranking process. The objective of this study is to develop a conceptual framework that describes the development of the 4-Year Pavement Management Plan. It can be largely divided into three Steps; 1) Network-Level project screening process, 2) Project-Level project ranking process, and 3) Economic Analysis. A rational pavement management procedure and a project ranking method accepted by districts and the TxDOT administration will maximize efficiency in budget allocations and will potentially help improve pavement condition. As a part of the implementation of the 4-Year Pavement Management Plan, the Network-Level Project Screening (NLPS) tool including the candidate project identification algorithm and the preliminary project ranking matrix was developed. The NLPS has been used by the Austin District Pavement Engineer (DPE) to evaluate PMIS (Pavement Management Information System) data and to prepare a preliminary list of candidate projects for further evaluation.

When the shoe doesn't quite fit: Regulating large commercial airports with expanding roles

Airports, whether publicly or privately owned or operated fill both public and private roles. They need to act as public infrastructure providers and as businesses which cover their operating costs. That leads to special governance concerns with respect to consumers and competitors which are only beginning to be addressed. These challenges are highlighted both by shifts in ownership status and by the expansion of roles performed by airports as passenger and cargo volumes continue to increase and as nearby urban areas expand outward towards airports. We survey five ways in which the regulatory shoe doesn‟t quite fit the needs. Our findings suggest that, while ad hoc measures limit political tension, new governance measures are needed.

Structural damage identification with noise polluted Frequency Response Functions (FRFs)

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, very few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with noise polluted data which is unavoidable effect in real world. The measurement data are contaminated by noise because of test environment as well as electronic devices and this noise tend to give error results with structural damage identification methods. Therefore it is important to investigate a method which can perform better with noise polluted data. This paper introduces a new damage index using principal component analysis (PCA) for damage detection of building structures being able to accept noise polluted frequency response functions (FRFs) as input. The FRF data are obtained from the function datagen of MATLAB program which is available on the web site of the IASC-ASCE (International Association for Structural Control– American Society of Civil Engineers) Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Task Group. The proposed method involves a five-stage process: calculation of FRFs, calculation of damage index values using proposed algorithm, development of the artificial neural networks and introducing damage indices as input parameters and damage detection of the structure. This paper briefly describes the methodology and the results obtained in detecting damage in all six cases of the benchmark study with different noise levels. The proposed method is applied to a benchmark problem sponsored by the IASC-ASCE Task Group on Structural Health Monitoring, which was developed in order to facilitate the comparison of various damage identification methods. The illustrated results show that the PCA-based algorithm is effective for structural health monitoring with noise polluted FRFs which is of common occurrence when dealing with industrial structures.

Identification of selection criteria for operational variations of the design-build system : a delphi study in China

The design-build (DB) system has been demonstrated as an effective delivery method and has gained popularity worldwide. However it is observed that a number of operational variations of DB system have emerged since the last decade to cater for different client’s requirements. After the client decides to procure his project through the DB system, he still has to choose an appropriate configuration to deliver their projects optimally. However, there is little research on the selection of DB operational variations. One of the main reasons for this is the lack of evaluation criteria for determining the appropriateness of each operational variation. To obtain such criteria, a three-round Delphi survey has been conducted with 20 construction experts in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Seven top selection criteria were identified. These are: (1) availability of competent design-builders; (2) client’s capabilities; (3) project complexity; (4) client’s control of project; (5) early commencement & short duration; (6) reduced responsibility or involvement; and (7) clearly defined end user’s requirements. These selection criteria were found to have a statistically significant agreement. These findings may furnish various stakeholders, DB clients in particular, with better insight to understand and compare the different operational variations of the DB system.

Identification of key competences of design-builders in the construction market of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

Design-builders play a vital role in the success of DB projects. In the construction market of the People’s Republic of China, most of the design-builders, however, lack adequate competences to conduct the DB projects successfully. The objective of this study is, therefore, to identify the key competences that design-builders should possess to not only ensure the success of DB projects but also acquire the competitive advantages in the DB market. Five semi-structured face-to-face interviews and two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey were conducted to identify the key competences of design-builders. Rankings have been assigned to these key competences on the basis of their relative importance. Six ranked key competences of design-builders have been identified, which are, namely, (1) experience with similar DB projects; (2) capability of corporate management; (3) combination of building techniques and design expertise; (4) financial capability for DB projects; (5) enterprise qualification and scale; and (6) credit records and reputation in the industry. The design-builders can make use of the research findings as guidelines to improve their DB competence. These research findings will also be useful to clients during the selection of design-builders.

Identification of key competences of DB clients in the construction market of China

The design-build system has been demonstrated as an effective delivery method and gained popularity worldwide. Although there are an increasing number of clients adopting DB method in China, most of them remain inexperienced with method. The objective of this study is therefore to identify the key competences that a client or its consultant should possess to ensure the success of DB projects. Face-to-face interviews and a two-round Delphi questionnaire survey were conducted to find the following six key competences of clients, which include the (1) ability to clearly articulate project scope and objectives; (2) financial capacity for DB projects; (3) capability in contract management; (4) adequate staff or consulting team; (5) effective coordination with contractors and (6) experience with similar DB projects. This study will hopefully provide clients with measures to evaluate their DB competence and further promote their understanding of DB system in the PRC.

Simulation of AE wave propagation in thin plate for source identification

In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in wide spectrum areas, ranging from non-destructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microeismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary/longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleight (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use the acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source location, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.

Introduction to special issue on what criminology can say about the war on terror

On 20 September 2001, the former US President, George W. Bush, declared what is now widely, and arguably infamously, known as a ‘war on terror’. In response to the fatal 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, DC, President Bush identified the US military response as having far-reaching and long-lasting consequences. It was, he argued, ‘our war on terror’ that began ‘with al Qaeda, but … it will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated’ (CNN 2001). This was to be a war that would, in the words of former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, seek to eliminate a threat that was ‘aimed at the whole democratic world’ (Blair 2001). Blair claimed that this threat is of such magnitude that unprecedented measures would need to be taken to uphold freedom and security. Blair would later admit that it was a war that ‘divided the country’ and was based on evidence ‘about Saddam having actual biological and chemical weapons, as opposed to the capability to develop them, has turned out to be wrong’ (Blair 2004). The failures of intelligence ushered in new political rhetoric in the form of ‘trust me’ because ‘instinct is no science’ (Blair 2004). The war on terror has been one of the most significant international events in the past three decades, alongside the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the end of apartheid in South Africa, the unification of Europe and the marketization of the People's Republic of China. Yet, unlike the other events, it will not be remembered for advancing democracy or sovereignty, but for the conviction politics of particular politicians who chose to dispense with international law and custom in pursuit of personal instincts that proved fatal. Since the invasions of Afghanistan in October 2001 and …

Identification of montgomeryite mineral [Ca4MgAl4(PO4)6.(OH)4•12H2O] found in the Jenolan Caves - Australia

In this paper, we report on many phosphate containing natural minerals found in the Jenolan Caves - Australia. Such minerals are formed by the reaction of bat guano and clays from the caves. Among these cave minerals is the montgomeryite mineral [Ca4MgAl4(PO4)6.(OH)4.12H2O]. The presence of montgomeryite in deposits of the Jenolan Caves - Australia has been identified by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to characterize the crystal structure of montgomeryite. The Raman spectrum of a standard montgomeryite mineral is identical to that of the Jenolan Caves sample. Bands are assigned to H2PO4-, OH and NH stretching vibrations. By using a combination of XRD and Raman spectroscopy, the existence of montgomeryite in the Jenolan Caves - Australia has been proven. A mechanism for the formation of montgomeryite is proposed.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.