Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Multiple founders and firm value

In this paper, we highlight the existence of multi-founder firms, which were founded by multiple individuals (with no family connections) who are still actively involved in the firm as directors and/or managers. These firms provide a unique setting to shed further light on the net valuation effects of founder involvement. In particular, multi-founder firms provide us with the opportunity to examine the benefits and costs to shareholders of multiple founders involved as directors, CEOs and managers in the same firm. Our analysis indicates that multi-founder firms are more valuable than all other types of firms, including single-founder firms and family firms, with the valuation premium positively related to the number of founders involved in the firm. Further analysis confirms that this valuation premium is linked to the direct involvement of the multiple founders as directors and CEOs. However, further founder involvement in vice president positions has a negative relationship with firm value.

Numerical solution of stress intensity factors of multiple cracks in great number with eigen COD boundary integral equations

Based on the eigen crack opening displacement (COD) boundary integral equations, a newly developed computational approach is proposed for the analysis of multiple crack problems. The eigen COD particularly refers to a crack in an infinite domain under fictitious traction acting on the crack surface. With the concept of eigen COD, the multiple cracks in great number can be solved by using the conventional displacement discontinuity boundary integral equations in an iterative fashion with a small size of system matrix. The interactions among cracks are dealt with by two parts according to the distances of cracks to the current crack. The strong effects of cracks in adjacent group are treated with the aid of the local Eshelby matrix derived from the traction BIEs in discrete form. While the relatively week effects of cracks in far-field group are treated in the iteration procedures. Numerical examples are provided for the stress intensity factors of multiple cracks, up to several thousands in number, with the proposed approach. By comparing with the analytical solutions in the literature as well as solutions of the dual boundary integral equations, the effectiveness and the efficiencies of the proposed approach are verified.

Online multiple profile manager for eHealth information sharing

Online social networks connect millions of people around the globe. These electronic bonds make individuals comfortable with their behaviours. Such positive signs of sharing information is useful phenomena requires consideration to establish a socio-scientific effect. Recently, many web users have more than one social networking account. This means a user may hold multiple profiles which are stored in different Social Network Sites (SNNs). Maintaining these multiple online social network profiles is cumbersome and time-consuming [1]. In this paper we will propose a framework for the management of a user's multiple profiles. A demonstrator, called Multiple Profile Manager (MPM), will be showcased to illustrate how effective the framework will be.

Automatic region-of-interest detection and prioritisation for visually optimised coding of low bit rate videos

The increasing popularity of video consumption from mobile devices requires an effective video coding strategy. To overcome diverse communication networks, video services often need to maintain sustainable quality when the available bandwidth is limited. One of the strategy for a visually-optimised video adaptation is by implementing a region-of-interest (ROI) based scalability, whereby important regions can be encoded at a higher quality while maintaining sufficient quality for the rest of the frame. The result is an improved perceived quality at the same bit rate as normal encoding, which is particularly obvious at the range of lower bit rate. However, because of the difficulties of predicting region-of-interest (ROI) accurately, there is a limited research and development of ROI-based video coding for general videos. In this paper, the phase spectrum quaternion of Fourier Transform (PQFT) method is adopted to determine the ROI. To improve the results of ROI detection, the saliency map from the PQFT is augmented with maps created from high level knowledge of factors that are known to attract human attention. Hence, maps that locate faces and emphasise the centre of the screen are used in combination with the saliency map to determine the ROI. The contribution of this paper lies on the automatic ROI detection technique for coding a low bit rate videos which include the ROI prioritisation technique to give different level of encoding qualities for multiple ROIs, and the evaluation of the proposed automatic ROI detection that is shown to have a close performance to human ROI, based on the eye fixation data.

Short answer versus multiple choice examination questions for first year chemistry

Multiple choice (MC) examinations are frequently used for the summative assessment of large classes because of their ease of marking and their perceived objectivity. However, traditional MC formats usually lead to a surface approach to learning, and do not allow students to demonstrate the depth of their knowledge or understanding. For these reasons, we have trialled the incorporation of short answer (SA) questions into the final examination of two first year chemistry units, alongside MC questions. Students’ overall marks were expected to improve, because they were able to obtain partial marks for the SA questions. Although large differences in some individual students’ performance in the two sections of their examinations were observed, most students received a similar percentage mark for their MC as for their SA sections and the overall mean scores were unchanged. In-depth analysis of all responses to a specific question, which was used previously as a MC question and in a subsequent semester in SA format, indicates that the SA format can have weaknesses due to marking inconsistencies that are absent for MC questions. However, inclusion of SA questions improved student scores on the MC section in one examination, indicating that their inclusion may lead to different study habits and deeper learning. We conclude that questions asked in SA format must be carefully chosen in order to optimise the use of marking resources, both financial and human, and questions asked in MC format should be very carefully checked by people trained in writing MC questions. These results, in conjunction with an analysis of the different examination formats used in first year chemistry units, have shaped a recommendation on how to reliably and cost-effectively assess first year chemistry, while encouraging higher order learning outcomes.

Preliminary insights from a multiple case study on process modelling impact

Process modelling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organisation’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about business processes in organisational projects. Still, despite current interest in process modelling, this area of study still faces essential challenges. One of the key unanswered questions concerns the impact of process modelling in organisational practice. Process modelling initiatives call for tangible results in the form of returns on the substantial investments that organisations undertake to achieve improved processes. This study explores the impact of process model use on end-users and its contribution to organisational success. We posit that the use of conceptual models creates impact in organisational process teams. We also report on a set of case studies in which we explore tentative evidence for the development of impact of process model use. The results of this work provide a better understanding of process modelling impact from information practices and also lead to insights into how organisations should conduct process modelling initiatives in order to achieve an optimum return on their investment.

Developing a predictive contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) for construction projects

Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.

Cross layer optimization of VANET routing with multi-objective decision making

Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET) have different characteristics compared to other mobile ad-hoc networks. The dynamic nature of the vehicles which act as routers and clients are connected with unreliable radio links and Routing becomes a complex problem. First we propose CO-GPSR (Cooperative GPSR), an extension of the traditional GPSR (Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing) which uses relay nodes which exploit radio path diversity in a vehicular network to increase routing performance. Next we formulate a Multi-objective decision making problem to select optimum packet relaying nodes to increase the routing performance further. We use cross layer information for the optimization process. We evaluate the routing performance more comprehensively using realistic vehicular traces and a Nakagami fading propagation model optimized for highway scenarios in VANETs. Our results show that when Multi-objective decision making is used for cross layer optimization of routing a 70% performance increment can be obtained for low vehicle densities on average, which is a two fold increase compared to the single criteria maximization approach.

Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.

Visual sea-floor mapping from low overlap imagery using bi-objective bundle adjustment and constrained motion

In most visual mapping applications suited to Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs), stereo visual odometry (VO) is rarely utilised as a pose estimator as imagery is typically of very low framerate due to energy conservation and data storage requirements. This adversely affects the robustness of a vision-based pose estimator and its ability to generate a smooth trajectory. This paper presents a novel VO pipeline for low-overlap imagery from an AUV that utilises constrained motion and integrates magnetometer data in a bi-objective bundle adjustment stage to achieve low-drift pose estimates over large trajectories. We analyse the performance of a standard stereo VO algorithm and compare the results to the modified vo algorithm. Results are demonstrated in a virtual environment in addition to low-overlap imagery gathered from an AUV. The modified VO algorithm shows significantly improved pose accuracy and performance over trajectories of more than 300m. In addition, dense 3D meshes generated from the visual odometry pipeline are presented as a qualitative output of the solution.

A new technique for optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors and setting of LTC

An iterative based strategy is proposed for finding the optimal rating and location of fixed and switched capacitors in distribution networks. The substation Load Tap Changer tap is also set during this procedure. A Modified Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization is employed in the proposed strategy. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost and the capacitors investment cost. The line loss is calculated using estimation of the load duration curve to multiple levels. The constraints are the bus voltage and the feeder current which should be maintained within their standard range. For validation of the proposed method, two case studies are tested. The first case study is the semi-urban 37-bus distribution system which is connected at bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System which is located in the secondary side of a 33/11 kV distribution substation. The second case is a 33 kV distribution network based on the modification of the 18-bus IEEE distribution system. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed strategy.

Programming with time : cyber-physical programming with Impromptu

The act of computer programming is generally considered to be temporally removed from a computer program's execution. In this paper we discuss the idea of programming as an activity that takes place within the temporal bounds of a real-time computational process and its interactions with the physical world. We ground these ideas within the con- text of livecoding -- a live audiovisual performance practice. We then describe how the development of the programming environment "Impromptu" has addressed our ideas of programming with time and the notion of the programmer as an agent in a cyber-physical system.