A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Information preferences for the evaluation of coastal development impacts on ecosystem services: A multi-criteria assessment in the Australian context

Ecosystem based management requires the integration of various types of assessment indicators. Understanding stakeholders' information preferences is important, in selecting those indicators that best support management and policy. Both the preferences of decision-makers and the general public may matter, in democratic participatory management institutions. This paper presents a multi-criteria analysis aimed at quantifying the relative importance to these groups of economic, ecological and socio-economic indicators usually considered when managing ecosystem services in a coastal development context. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied within two nationwide surveys in Australia, and preferences of both the general public and decision-makers for these indicators are elicited and compared. Results show that, on average across both groups, the priority in assessing a generic coastal development project is for the ecological assessment of its impacts on marine biodiversity. Ecological assessment indicators are globally preferred to both economic and socio-economic indicators regardless of the nature of the impacts studied. These results are observed for a significantly larger proportion of decision-maker than general public respondents, questioning the extent to which the general public's preferences are well reflected in decision-making processes.

Cognitive function in schizophrenia: Conflicting findings and future directions

Introduction Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder with multiple psychopathological domains being affected. Several lines of evidence indicate that cognitive impairment serves as the key component of schizophrenia psychopathology. Although there have been a multitude of cognitive studies in schizophrenia, there are many conflicting results. We reasoned that this could be due to individual differences among the patients (i.e. variation in the severity of positive vs. negative symptoms), different task designs, and/or the administration of different antipsychotics. Methods We thus review existing data concentrating on these dimensions, specifically in relation to dopamine function. We focus on most commonly used cognitive domains: learning, working memory, and attention. Results We found that the type of cognitive domain under investigation, medication state and type, and severity of positive and negative symptoms can explain the conflicting results in the literature. Conclusions This review points to future studies investigating individual differences among schizophrenia patients in order to reveal the exact relationship between cognitive function, clinical features, and antipsychotic treatment.

Excel’s Sumif and Sumifs function

As accountants, we are all familiar with the SUM function, which calculates the sum in a range of numbers. However, there are instances where we might want to sum numbers in a given range based on a specified criteria. In this instance the SUM IF function can achieve this objective.

The effect of internal audit function quality and internal audit contribution to external audit on audit fees

Corporate governance mandates and listing rules identify internal audit functions (IAF) as a central internal control mechanism. External audits are expected to assess the quality of IAF before placing reliance on its work. We provide evidence on the effect of IAF quality and IAF contribution to external audit on audit fees. Using data from a matched survey of both external and internal audits, we extend prior research which is based mainly on internal audits' assessment and conducted predominantly in highly developed markets. We find a positive relationship between IAF quality and audit fees as well as a reduction in audit fees as a result of external auditors' reliance on IAF. The interaction between IAF quality and IAF contribution to external audit suggests that high quality IAF induces greater external auditor reliance on internal auditors' work and thus result in lower external audit fees.

Integrating urban ecosystem sustainability assessment into policy-making: Insights from the Gold Coast City

This paper introduces a policy-making support tool called ‘Micro-level Urban ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX)’. The index serves as a sustainability assessment model that monitors six aspects of urban ecosystems, hydrology, ecology, pollution, location, design, and efficiency based on parcel-scale indicators. This index is applied in a case study investigation in the Gold Coast City, Queensland, Australia. The outcomes reveal that there are major environmental problems caused by increased impervious surfaces from growing urban development in the study area. The findings suggest that increased impervious surfaces are linked to increased surface runoff, car dependency, transport-related pollution, poor public transport accessibility, and unsustainable built environment. This paper presents how the MUSIX outputs can be used to guide policy-making through the evaluation of existing policies.

Targeting antigen to diverse APCs inactivates memory CD8+ T cells without eliciting tissue-destructive effector function

Memory T cells develop early during the preclinical stages of autoimmune diseases and have traditionally been considered resistant to tolerance induction. As such, they may represent a potent barrier to the successful immunotherapy of established autoimmune diseases. It was recently shown that memory CD8+ T cell responses are terminated when Ag is genetically targeted to steady-state dendritic cells. However, under these conditions, inactivation of memory CD8+ T cells is slow, allowing transiently expanded memory CD8+ T cells to exert tissue-destructive effector function. In this study, we compared different Ag-targeting strategies and show, using an MHC class II promoter to drive Ag expression in a diverse range of APCs, that CD8+ memory T cells can be rapidly inactivated by MHC class II+ hematopoietic APCs through a mechanism that involves a rapid and sustained downregulation of TCR, in which the effector response of CD8+ memory cells is rapidly truncated and Ag-expressing target tissue destruction is prevented. Our data provide the first demonstration that genetically targeting Ag to a broad range of MHC class II+ APC types is a highly efficient way to terminate memory CD8+ T cell responses to prevent tissue-destructive effector function and potentially established autoimmune diseases. Copyright © 2010 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

A rare P2X7 variant Arg307Gln with absent pore formation function protects against neuroinflammation in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease of the central nervous system characterized by oligodendrocyte damage, demyelination and neuronal death. Genetic association studies have shown a 2-fold or greater prevalence of the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele in the MS population compared with normal Caucasians. In discovery cohorts of Australasian patients with MS (total 2941 patients and 3008 controls), we examined the associations of 12 functional polymorphisms of P2X7, a microglial/macrophage receptor with proinflammatory effects when activated by extracellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP). In discovery cohorts, rs28360457, coding for Arg307Gln was associated with MS and combined analysis showed a 2-fold lower minor allele frequency compared with controls (1.11% for MS and 2.15% for controls, P = 0.0000071). Replication analysis of four independent European MS case–control cohorts (total 2140 cases and 2634 controls) confirmed this association [odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, P = 0.026]. A meta-analysis of all Australasian and European cohorts indicated that Arg307Gln confers a 1.8-fold protective effect on MS risk (OR = 0.57, P = 0.0000024). Fresh human monocytes heterozygous for Arg307Gln have >85% loss of ‘pore’ function of the P2X7 receptor measured by ATP-induced ethidium uptake. Analysis shows Arg307Gln always occurred with 270His suggesting a single 307Gln–270His haplotype that confers dominant negative effects on P2X7 function and protection against MS. Modeling based on the homologous zP2X4 receptor showed Arg307 is located in a region rich in basic residues located only 12 Å from the ligand binding site. Our data show the protective effect against MS of a rare genetic variant of P2RX7 with heterozygotes showing near absent proinflammatory ‘pore’ function.

Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as a useful decision-support tool for ecosystem management. However, the extent to which economic valuation of ecosystem services is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of ecosystem services economic valuation in support of coastal and marine management are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across decision-makers groups. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use it. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent’s use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other existing works, and are instructive to reflect on the issue of the usefulness of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also confirm that the survey-based approach developed in this application represents a sound strategy to examine this issue at various scales and management levels.