Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Reinforced hydrogels for silicone copolymer delivery for scar remediation

Hypertrophic scars are formed by collagen overproduction in wounded areas and often occur in victims of severe burns. There are several methods for hypertrophic scar remediation and silicone gel therapy is one of the more successful methods. Research by others has shown that the activity of these gels may be due to migration of amphiphilic silicone oligomers from the gel and into the dermis, down-regulating production of collagen by fibroblasts. Normal silicone oil (PDMS) does not produce the same effect on fibroblasts. The main purpose of this project is the introduction of a particular amphiphilic silicone rake copolymer into an appropriate network which can absorb and release the silicone copolymer on the scarred area. Hydrogels are polymeric crosslinked networks which can swell in water or a drug solution, and gradually release the drug when applied to the skin. The application of gel enhances the effectiveness of the therapy, reduces the period of treatment and can be comfortable for patients to use. Polyethylene glycol (PEG) based networks have been applied in this research, because the amphiphilic silicone rake copolymer to be used as a therapy has polyethylene oxide (PEO) as a side chain. These PEO side chains have very similar chemical structure to a PEG gel chain so enhancing both the compatibility and the diffusion of the amphiphilic silicone rake copolymer into and out of the gel. Synthesis of PEG-based networks has been performed by two methods: in situ silsesquioxane formation as crosslink with a sol-gel reaction under different conditions and UV curing. PEG networks have low mechanical properties which is a fundamental limitation of the polymer backbone. For mechanical properties enhancement, composite networks were synthesized using nano-silica with different surface modification. The chemical structure of in situ silsesquioxane in the dry network has been examined by Solid State NMR, Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and swelling measurements in water. Mechanical properties of dry networks were tested by Dynamic Mechanical Thermal Analysis (DMTA) to determine modulus and interfacial interaction between silica and the network. In this way a family of self-reinforced networks has been produced that have been shown to absorb and deliver the active amphiphilic silicone- PEO rake copolymer.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Practical application of pseudospectral optimization to robot path planning

To obtain minimum time or minimum energy trajectories for robots it is necessary to employ planning methods which adequately consider the platform’s dynamic properties. A variety of sampling, graph-based or local receding-horizon optimisation methods have previously been proposed. These typically use simplified kino-dynamic models to avoid the significant computational burden of solving this problem in a high dimensional state-space. In this paper we investigate solutions from the class of pseudospectral optimisation methods which have grown in favour amongst the optimal control community in recent years. These methods have high computational efficiency and rapid convergence properties. We present a practical application of such an approach to the robot path planning problem to provide a trajectory considering the robot’s dynamic properties. We extend the existing literature by augmenting the path constraints with sensed obstacles rather than predefined analytical functions to enable real world application.

Valuation methods for resident funded retirement villages in Australia : a practitioner's perspective

Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards. Retirement village developments usually include a mix of independent living units (ILUs) and serviced apartments (SAs) with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. Retirement Village assets differ from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. In Australia, each State and Territory has its own Retirement Village Act and Regulations. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. The market value of the operator’s interest in the Retirement Village is therefore based upon the estimated future income from Deferred Management Fees and Capital Gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of discounted cash flow methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate. Whilst there is dissatisfaction with the financial structuring of the DMF in residency agreements, as long as there are future financial returns receivable by the Village owner/operator, then DCF will continue to be the most appropriate valuation methodology for resident funded retirement villages.

Pedometry methods for assessing free-living youth

The purpose of this review is to integrate and summarize specific measurement topics (instrument and metric choice, validity, reliability, how many and what types of days, reactivity, and data treatment) appropriate to the study of youth physical activity. Research quality pedometers are necessary to aid interpretation of steps per day collected in a range of young populations under a variety of circumstances. Steps per day is the most appropriate metric choice, but steps per minute can be used to interpret time-in-intensity in specifically delimited time periods (e.g., physical education class). Reported intraclass correlations (ICC) have ranged from .65 over 2 days (although higher values also have been reported for 2 days) to .87 over 8 days (although higher values have been reported for fewer days). Reported ICCs are lower on weekend days (.59) versus weekdays (.75) and lower over vacation days (.69) versus school days (.74). There is no objective evidence of reactivity at this time. Data treatment includes (a) identifying and addressing missing values, (b) identifying outliers and reducing data appropriately if necessary, and (c) transforming the data as required in preparation for inferential analysis. As more pedometry studies in young populations are published, these preliminary methodological recommendations should be modified and refined.

Vibration characteristics of slender structures under human induced loads

This paper presents the outcome of investigations and studies of the vibratioon characteristics and response of low frequency structural systems for a composite concrete steel floor plate and a reverse profiled cable tensioned foot bridge. These highly dynamic and slender structure are the engineering response to planning, aesthetic and environmental influences, but are prone to excessive and complex vibration. A number of design codes and practice guides provided information to engineers for vibration mitigation However, they are limited to very simple load function applied to a few uncoupled translational modes of excitation. Motivated by the need to address the knowledge gaps in this area, the investigations described in this paper focused on synchronous multi-modal and coupled excitation of the floor plate and footbridge with considerations for torsinal effects. The results showed the potential for adverse dynamic response from multi-modal and coupled excitation influenced by patterned loading, structure geometry, stiffness distribution, directional effects, forcing functions based on activity frequency and duration of foot contact, and modal participation. It was also shown that higher harmonics of the load frequency can excite higher modes in the composite floor structure. Such responsive behaviour is prevalent mainly in slender and lightweight construction and not in stiffer and heavier structural systems. The analytical techniques and methods used in these investigations can supplement the current limited code and best practice provisions for mitigating the impact of human induced vibrations in slender structural systems.

Linking the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Compendium of Physical Activities : methods and rationale

Background: The 2003 Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (ATUS) contains 438 distinct primary activity variables that can be analyzed with regard to how time is spent by Americans. The Compendium of Physical Activities is used to code physical activities derived from various surveys, logs, diaries, etc to facilitate comparison of coded intensity levels across studies. ------ ----- Methods: This paper describes the methods, challenges, and rationale for linking Compendium estimates of physical activity intensity (METs, metabolic equivalents) with all activities reported in the 2003 ATUS. ----- ----- Results: The assigned ATUS intensity levels are not intended to compute the energy costs of physical activity in individuals. Instead, they are intended to be used to identify time spent in activities broadly classified by type and intensity. This function will complement public health surveillance systems and aid in policy and health-promotion activities. For example, at least one of the future projects of this process is the descriptive epidemiology of time spent in common physical activity intensity categories. ----- ----- Conclusions: The process of metabolic coding of the ATUS by linking it with the Compendium of Physical Activities can make important contributions to our understanding of Americans’ time spent in health-related physical activity.

Strength improvement methods for back to back Litesteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills (OATM). The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using patented dual electric resistance welding and automated roll-forming technologies. OATM is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in residential construction. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity. However, the research project conducted on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs showed that the detrimental effects of lateral distortional buckling in single LSB members appear to remain with back to back built-up LSB members. The ultimate moment capacity of back to back LSB member is also affected by lateral distortional buckling failure. Therefore an investigation was conducted with an aim to develop suitable strength improvement methods, which are likely to mitigate lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improve the flexural strengths of back to back LSB members. This paper presents the details of this investigation, the results and recommendations for the most suitable and cost-effective method, which significantly improves the moment capacities of back to back LSB members.

Mechanical evaluation of a new minimally invasive device for stabilization of proximal humeral fractures in elderly patients : a cadaver study

BACKGROUND: Treatment of proximal humerus fractures in elderly patients is challenging because of reduced bone quality. We determined the in vitro characteristics of a new implant developed to target the remaining bone stock, and compared it with an implant in clinical use. METHODS: Following osteotomy, left and right humeral pairs from cadavers were treated with either the Button-Fix or the Humerusblock fixation system. Implant stiffness was determined for three clinically relevant cases of load: axial compression, torsion, and varus bending. In addition, a cyclic varus-bending test was performed. RESULTS: We found higher stiffness values for the humeri treated with the ButtonFix system--with almost a doubling of the compression, torsion, and bending stiffness values. Under dynamic loading, the ButtonFix system had superior stiffness and less K-wire migration compared to the Humerusblock system. INTERPRETATION: When compared to the Humerusblock design, the ButtonFix system showed superior biomechanical properties, both static and dynamic. It offers a minimally invasive alternative for the treatment of proximal humerus fractures.

Mechanical Behavior of Articular Cartilage After Osteochondral Autograft Transfer in an Ovine Model

BACKGROUND: Grafting of autologous hyaline cartilage and bone for articular cartilage repair is a well-accepted technique. Although encouraging midterm clinical results have been reported, no information on the mechanical competence of the transplanted joint surface is available. HYPOTHESIS: The mechanical competence of osteochondral autografts is maintained after transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Osteochondral defects were filled with autografts (7.45 mm in diameter) in one femoral condyle in 12 mature sheep. The ipsilateral femoral condyle served as the donor site, and the resulting defect (8.3 mm in diameter) was left empty. The repair response was examined after 3 and 6 months with mechanical and histologic assessment and histomorphometric techniques. RESULTS: Good surface congruity and plug placement was achieved. The Young modulus of the grafted cartilage significantly dropped to 57.5% of healthy tissue after 3 months (P < .05) but then recovered to 82.2% after 6 months. The aggregate and dynamic moduli behaved similarly. The graft edges showed fibrillation and, in some cases (4 of 6), hypercellularity and chondrocyte clustering. Subchondral bone sclerosis was observed in 8 of 12 cases, and the amount of mineralized bone in the graft area increased from 40% to 61%. CONCLUSIONS: The mechanical quality of transplanted cartilage varies considerably over a short period of time, potentially reflecting both degenerative and regenerative processes, while histologically signs of both cartilage and bone degeneration occur. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Both the mechanically degenerative and restorative processes illustrate the complex progression of regeneration after osteochondral transplantation. The histologic evidence raises doubts as to the long-term durability of the osteochondral repair.

Physicality in the Information Age : a normative perspective on the patent eligibility of non-physical methods

There has been much conjecture of late as to whether the patentable subject matter standard contains a physicality requirement. The issue came to a head when the Federal Circuit introduced the machine-or-transformation test in In re Bilski and declared it to be the sole test for determining subject matter eligibility. Many commentators criticized the test, arguing that it is inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent and the need for the patent system to respond appropriately to all new and useful innovation in whatever form it arises. Those criticisms were vindicated when, on appeal, the Supreme Court in Bilski v. Kappos dispensed with any suggestion that the patentable subject matter test involves a physicality requirement. In this article, the issue is addressed from a normative perspective: it asks whether the patentable subject matter test should contain a physicality requirement. The conclusion reached is that it should not, because such a limitation is not an appropriate means of encouraging much of the valuable innovation we are likely to witness during the Information Age. It is contended that it is not only traditionally-recognized mechanical, chemical and industrial manufacturing processes that are patent eligible, but that patent eligibility extends to include non-machine implemented and non-physical methods that do not have any connection with a physical device and do not cause a physical transformation of matter. Concerns raised that there is a trend of overreaching commoditization or propertization, where the boundaries of patent law have been expanded too far, are unfounded since the strictures of novelty, nonobviousness and sufficiency of description will exclude undeserving subject matter from patentability. The argument made is that introducing a physicality requirement will have unintended adverse effects in various fields of technology, particularly those emerging technologies that are likely to have a profound social effect in the future.

Panel studies of new venture creation: a methods-focused review and suggestions for future research

Longitudinal panel studies of large, random samples of business start-ups captured at the pre-operational stage allow researchers to address core issues for entrepreneurship research, namely, the processes of creation of new business ventures as well as their antecedents and outcomes. Here, we perform a methods-orientated review of all 83 journal articles that have used this type of data set, our purpose being to assist users of current data sets as well as designers of new projects in making the best use of this innovative research approach. Our review reveals a number of methods issues that are largely particular to this type of research. We conclude that amidst exemplary contributions, much of the reviewed research has not adequately managed these methods challenges, nor has it made use of the full potential of this new research approach. Specifically, we identify and suggest remedies for context-specific and interrelated methods challenges relating to sample definition, choice of level of analysis, operationalization and conceptualization, use of longitudinal data and dealing with various types of problematic heterogeneity. In addition, we note that future research can make further strides towards full utilization of the advantages of the research approach through better matching (from either direction) between theories and the phenomena captured in the data, and by addressing some under-explored research questions for which the approach may be particularly fruitful.

Assembling dynamic repertoires of literate practices : teaching that makes a difference

This chapter considers how teachers can make a difference to the kinds of literacy young people take up. Increasingly, researchers and policy-makers see literacy as an ensemble of socio-cultural situated practices rather than as a unitary skill. Accordingly, the differences in what young people come to do with literacy, in and out of school, confront us more directly. If literacy development involves assembling dynamic repertoires of practices, it is crucial to consider what different groups of children growing up and going to school in different places have access to and make investments in over time; the kinds of literate communities from which some are excluded or included; and how educators make a difference to the kinds of literate trajectories and identities young people put together.