Freeway travel time estimation & prediction : a literature review

This report is the second deliverable of the Real Time and Predictive Traveller Information project and the first deliverable of the Freeway Travel Time Information sub-project in the Integrated Traveller Information research Domain of the Smart Transport Research Centre. The primary objective of the Freeway Travel Time Information sub-project is to develop algorithms for real-time travel time estimation and prediction models for Freeway traffic. The objective of this report is to review the literature pertaining to travel time estimation and prediction models for freeway traffic.

Arterial travel time estimation & prediction : a literature review

This report is the fourth deliverable of the Real Time and Predictive Traveller Information project and the first deliverable of the Arterial Travel Time Information sub-project in the Integrated Traveller Information research Domain of the Smart Transport Research Centre. The primary objective of the Arterial Travel Time Information sub-project is to develop algorithms for real-time travel time estimation and prediction models for arterial traffic. The objective of this report is to review the literature pertaining to travel time estimation and prediction models for arterial traffic.

Nanoporous Graphitic-C3N4@Carbon Metal-Free Electrocatalysts for Highly Efficient Oxygen Reduction

Based on theoretical prediction, a g-C3N4@carbon metal-free oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalyst was designed and synthesized by uniform incorporation of g-C3N4 into a mesoporous carbon to enhance the electron transfer efficiency of g-C3N4. The resulting g-C3N4@carbon composite exhibited competitive catalytic activity (11.3 mA cm–2 kinetic-limiting current density at −0.6 V) and superior methanol tolerance compared to a commercial Pt/C catalyst. Furthermore, it demonstrated significantly higher catalytic efficiency (nearly 100% of four-electron ORR process selectivity) than a Pt/C catalyst. The proposed synthesis route is facile and low-cost, providing a feasible method for the development of highly efficient electrocatalysts.

C-BN Single-Walled Nanotubes from Hybrid Connection of BN/C Nanoribbons: Prediction by ab initio Density Functional Calculations

We demonstrated for the first time by ab initio density functional calculation and molecular dynamics simulation that C0.5(BN)0.5 armchair single-walled nanotubes (NT) are gapless semiconductors and can be spontaneously formed via the hybrid connection of graphene/BN Nanoribbons (GNR/BNNR) at room temperature. The direct synthesis of armchair C0.5(BN)0.5 via the hybrid connection of GNR/BNNR is predicted to be both thermodynamically and dynamically stable. Such novel armchair C0.5(BN)0.5 NTs possess enhanced conductance as that observed in GNRs. Additionally, the zigzag C0.5(BN)0.5 SWNTs are narrow band gap semiconductors, which may have potential application for light emission. In light of recent experimental progress and the enhanced degree of control in the synthesis of GNRs and BNNR, our results highlight an interesting avenue for synthesizing a novel specific type of C0.5(BN)0.5 nanotube (gapless or narrow direct gap semiconductor), with potentially important applications in BNC-based nanodevices.

Character in the workplace : self directedness mediates harm avoidance in the prediction of job performance

The purpose of this study was to test a model of the relationship between temperament, character and job performance, in order to better understand the cause of stable individual differences in job performance. Personality was conceptualized in terms of Cloninger, Svrakic and Przybeck’s (1993) theoretical framework of personality. It was expected that Self Directedness (character) would mediate Harm Avoidance and Persistence (temperament) in the prediction of job performance. In order to test the hypotheses, a sample of 94 employee/supervisor pairs was recruited from several organizations across Australia. Participants completed a number of questionnaires online, regarding their personality traits (completed by employees) and Job Performance (completed by Supervisors). Consistent with the hypothesis, Self Directedness was found to be a moderate, direct predictor of job performance. Also consistent with the hypothesis, Self Directedness mediated Harm Avoidance in the prediction of job performance. Results show that character (Self Directedness) is important in the prediction of job performance, and also suggests that fearful, avoidant individuals are less likely to perform well in the workplace, based on their low level of character development.

The cost of carbon : capital market effects of the proposed emission trading scheme (ETS)

In March 2008, the Australian Government announced its intention to introduce a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), now expected to start in 2015. This impending development provides an ideal setting to investigate the impact an ETS in Australia will have on the market valuation of Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) firms. This is the first empirical study into the pricing effects of the ETS in Australia. Primarily, we hypothesize that firm value will be negatively related to a firm's carbon intensity profile. That is, there will be a greater impact on firm value for high carbon emitters in the period prior (2007) to the introduction of the ETS, whether for reasons relating to the existence of unbooked liabilities associated with future compliance and/or abatement costs, or for reasons relating to reduced future earnings. Using a sample of 58 Australian listed firms (constrained by the current availability of emissions data) which comprise larger, more profitable and less risky listed Australian firms, we first undertake an event study focusing on five distinct information events argued to impact the probability of the proposed ETS being enacted. Here, we find direct evidence that the capital market is indeed pricing the proposed ETS. Second, using a modified version of the Ohlson (1995) valuation model, we undertake a valuation analysis designed not only to complement the event study results, but more importantly to provide insights into the capital market's assessment of the magnitude of the economic impact of the proposed ETS as reflected in market capitalization. Here, our results show that the market assesses the most carbon intensive sample firms a market value decrement relative to other sample firms of between 7% and 10% of market capitalization. Further, based on the carbon emission profile of the sample firms we imply a ‘future carbon permit price’ of between AUD$17 per tonne and AUD$26 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted. This study is more precise than industry reports, which set a carbon price of between AUD$15 to AUD$74 per tonne.

Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status

Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.

Mobile cost estimating

Martin Skitmore introduces a most "remarkable couple", Rod and Annie Stewart of Huntsville, Alabama (and elsewhere), and their post retirement business, Mobile Data Services. Contrary to popular expectations, Rod and Annie are not only computer-friendly, but are almost entirely dependent on the new technology for their survival.

Surgical site infection prevention following total hip arthroplasty in Australia : a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.