Exploring accuracy factors in cost estimating practice towards implementing Building Information Modelling (BIM)

Cost estimating has been acknowledged as a crucial component of construction projects. Depending on available information and project requirements, cost estimates evolve in tandem with project lifecycle stages; conceptualisation, design development, execution and facility management. The premium placed on the accuracy of cost estimates is crucial to producing project tenders and eventually in budget management. Notwithstanding the initial slow pace of its adoption, Building Information Modelling (BIM) has successfully addressed a number of challenges previously characteristic of traditional approaches in the AEC, including poor communication, the prevalence of islands of information and frequent reworks. Therefore, it is conceivable that BIM can be leveraged to address specific shortcomings of cost estimation. The impetus for leveraging BIM models for accurate cost estimation is to align budgeted and actual cost. This paper hypothesises that the accuracy of BIM-based estimation, as more efficient, process-mirrors of traditional cost estimation methods, can be enhanced by simulating traditional cost estimation factors variables. Through literature reviews and preliminary expert interviews, this paper explores the factors that could potentially lead to more accurate cost estimates for construction projects. The findings show numerous factors that affect the cost estimates ranging from project information and its characteristic, project team, clients, contractual matters, and other external influences. This paper will make a particular contribution to the early phase of BIM-based project estimation.

Cost estimating practice incorporating Building Information Modelling (BIM): Malaysian Quantity Surveyors perspectives

Cost estimating is a key task within Quantity Surveyors’ (QS) offices. Provision of an accurate estimate is vital to ensure that the objectives of the client are met by staying within the client’s budget. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an evolving technology that has gained attention in the construction industries all over the world. Benefits from the use of BIM include cost and time savings if the processes used by the procurement team are adapted to maximise the benefits of BIM. BIM can be used by QSs to automate aspects of quantity take-off and the preparation of estimates, decreasing turnaround time and assist in controlling errors and inaccuracies. The Malaysian government has decided to require the use of BIM for its projects beginning from 2016. However, slow uptake is reported in the use of BIM both within companies and to support collaboration within the Malaysian industry. It has been recommended that QSs to start evaluating the impact of BIM on their practices. This paper reviews the perspectives of QSs in Malaysia towards the use of BIM to achieve more dependable results in their cost estimating practice. The objectives of this paper include identifying strategies in improving practice and potential adoption drivers that lead QSs to BIM usage in their construction projects. From the expert interviews, it was found out that, despite still using traditional methods and not practising BIM, the interviewees still acquire limited knowledge related to BIM. There are some drivers that potentially motivate them to employ BIM in their practices. These include client demands, innovation in traditional methods, speed in estimating costs, reduced time and costs, improvement in practices and self-awareness, efficiency in projects, and competition from other companies. The findings of this paper identify the potential drivers in encouraging Malaysian Quantity Surveyors to exploit BIM in their construction projects.

Comparator clinical trials of surrogate endpoints with albiglutide are in HARMONY

Introduction: Agonists of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptors are used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Albiglutide is a new long acting GLP-1 receptor agonist being developed for once-weekly use. Areas covered: This evaluation is of 2 clinical trials in the HARMONY clinical trials series. HARMONY 3 compares albiglutide to sitagliptin and glimepiride in subjects with type 2 diabetes poorly controlled with metformin, and HARMONY 6 compares albiglutide to insulin lispro in subjects poorly controlled with slow/medium release preparations of insulin. Expert opinion: Both studies showed that albiglutide lowered HbA1c, and had advantages over its comparator drugs. However, questions remain about the safety of albiglutide. Albiglutide is not being used in subjects with a history of thyroid cancer, as it is not known whether this is a rare adverse effect with albiglutide. Also, the safety of albiglutide in subjects with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk is unknown.

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally observed intercellular variability of rabbit ventricular action potential repolarisation.

Efficient simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics with the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer extrapolation method

Background Biochemical systems with relatively low numbers of components must be simulated stochastically in order to capture their inherent noise. Although there has recently been considerable work on discrete stochastic solvers, there is still a need for numerical methods that are both fast and accurate. The Bulirsch-Stoer method is an established method for solving ordinary differential equations that possesses both of these qualities. Results In this paper, we present the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method, a new numerical method for simulating discrete chemical reaction systems, inspired by its deterministic counterpart. It is able to achieve an excellent efficiency due to the fact that it is based on an approach with high deterministic order, allowing for larger stepsizes and leading to fast simulations. We compare it to the Euler τ-leap, as well as two more recent τ-leap methods, on a number of example problems, and find that as well as being very accurate, our method is the most robust, in terms of efficiency, of all the methods considered in this paper. The problems it is most suited for are those with increased populations that would be too slow to simulate using Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm. For such problems, it is likely to achieve higher weak order in the moments. Conclusions The Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method is a novel stochastic solver that can be used for fast and accurate simulations. Crucially, compared to other similar methods, it better retains its high accuracy when the timesteps are increased. Thus the Stochastic Bulirsch-Stoer method is both computationally efficient and robust. These are key properties for any stochastic numerical method, as they must typically run many thousands of simulations.

Human body stability in floodwaters: The 2011 flood in Brisbane CBD

The flooding of urbanised areas constitutes a hazard to the population and infrastructure. Floods through inundated urban environments have been studied recently and the potential impact of flowing waters on pedestrians is not well known. Herein the stability of individuals in floodwaters is reviewed based upon the re-analysis of detailed field measurements in an inundated section of the central business district of the City of Brisbane (Australia) during the 2011 flood. Detailed water elevation and velocity data were recorded. On-site observations showed some hydrodynamic instability linked to local topographic effects, in the form of a combination of fast turbulent fluctuations and (very) slow fluctuations of water level and velocity associated with surges. The flow conditions in Gardens Point Road was unsafe for individuals and a review of past guidelines suggests that many previous recommendations are over-optimistic and unsafe in real floodwaters.

Optimizing the quantum dot: Plasmon interaction in a nano gap waveguide

Spontaneous emission (SE) of a Quantum emitter depends mainly on the transmission strength between the upper and lower energy levels as well as the Local Density of States (LDOS)[1]. When a QD is placed in near a plasmon waveguide, LDOS of the QD is increased due to addition of the non-radiative decay and a plasmonic decay channel to free space emission[2-4]. The slow velocity and dramatic concentration of the electric field of the plasmon can capture majority of the SE into guided plasmon mode (Гpl ). This paper focused on studying the effect of waveguide height on the efficiency of coupling QD decay into plasmon mode using a numerical model based on finite elemental method (FEM). Symmetric gap waveguide considered in this paper support single mode and QD as a dipole emitter. 2D simulation models are done to find normalized Гpl and 3D models are used to find probability of SE decaying into plasmon mode ( β) including all three decay channels. It is found out that changing gap height can increase QD-plasmon coupling, by up to a factor of 5 and optimally placed QD up to a factor of 8. To make the paper more realistic we briefly studied the effect of sharpness of the waveguide edge on SE emission into guided plasmon mode. Preliminary nano gap waveguide fabrication and testing are already underway. Authors expect to compare the theoretical results with experimental outcomes in the future

PREPARE Study: Patient satisfaction survey with care provided in the low clearance clinic

Background Formalised predialysis care has been shown to extend the wellness of individuals with advanced chronic kidney disease, slow disease progression and increase the uptake of home dialysis. Predialysis care, incorporating multidisciplinary input is also vital in delaying the onset of end-stage kidney disease and reducing hospital admissions; thereby decreasing financial demands on health budgets. Predialysis care should include comprehensive information provision and predialysis education. This empowers patients to choose self-care strategies and therapies.

Will algorithmic playlist curation be the end of music stardom?

It is 2015 and there are no indications that the relentless digital transformation of the music economy is about to slow down. Rather, the music economy continues to rapidly reinvent itself and industry powers, positions and practices that were redefined only a few years ago are being questioned once again. This paper examines the most recent changes of the music economy as it moves from a product-based towards an access-based logic. The paper starts out by recognising the essential role of technology in the evolution of the music economy. It then moves on to a discussion about the rise of so-called access-based music business models and points out some of the controversies and debates that are associated with these models and online services. With this as a background the paper explores how access-based music services and the algorithmically curated playlists developed by these services transform the relationship between artists, music and fans and challenges the music industrial power relationships and established industry practices once again.

Genetics and genomics of ankylosing spondylitis

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common, highly heritable arthropathy, the pathogenesis of which is poorly understood. The mechanism by which the main gene for the disease, HLA-B27, leads to AS is unknown. Genetic and genomic studies have demonstrated involvement of the interleukin-23 (IL-23) signaling pathway in AS, a finding which has stimulated much new research into the disease and has led to therapeutic trials. Several other genes and genetic regions, including further major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and non-MHC loci, have been shown to be involved in the disease, but it is not clear yet how they actually induce the condition. These findings have shown that there is a strong genetic overlap between AS and Crohn's disease in particular, although there are also major differences in the genes involved in the two conditions, presumably explaining their different presentations. Genomic and proteomic studies are in an early phase but have potential both as diagnostic/prognostic tools and as a further hypothesis-free tool to investigate AS pathogenesis. Given the slow progress in studying the mechanism of association of HLA-B27 with AS, these may prove to be more fruitful approaches to investigating the pathogenesis of the disease. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Breakthroughs in genetic studies of ankylosing spondylitis

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS), the prototypic seronegative arthropathy, is known to be highly heritable, with >90% of the risk of developing the disease determined genetically. As with most common heritable diseases, progress in identifying the genes involved using family-based or candidate gene approaches has been slow. The recent development of the genome-wide association study approach has revolutionized genetic studies of such diseases. Early studies in ankylosing spondylitis have produced two major breakthroughs in the identification of genes contributing roughly one third of the population attributable risk of the disease, and pointing directly to a potential therapy. These exciting findings highlight the potential of future more comprehensive genetic studies of determinants of disease risk and clinical manifestations, and are the biggest advance in our understanding of the causation of the disease since the discovery of the association with HLA-B27.

Perceptions of the prevalence of self-organising amongst Australian road safety stakeholders: A comparative perspective

The Australian road traffic fatality rate is slowing down at a much lower rate than that of comparable high income countries. This slow rate of reduction may be attributable to a wide range of causes such as deficits in coordination and low community engagement. However, it may also be due to the absence of understanding of systems thinking in road safety in Australia. This exploratory study aimed to investigate the perceptions of Australian stakeholders about the prevalence of a principle of the Dynamic Systems Theory, namely: self-organising. The results pointed to a need to decentralize the road traffic injury prevention efforts in Australia through a range of self-organising principles and the adoption of emergent rather than deliberate strategies.

Evaluation of safety treatments at roadwork zones

A major 3-year research project to improve safety at roadworks has recently been completed by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) and industry partners. This project involved developing strategies to mitigate roadwork hazards including speeding. This paper presents three on-road evaluation studies on the effectiveness of some current and new safety treatments: use of pilot vehicles, variable message signage (VMS), police enforcement with and without VMS, and remote-controlled traffic control devices. The speed reduction potential of pilot vehicles was evaluated at a highway site. Results showed that pilot vehicles reduced average speeds within the work area, but not at a downstream location. Combinations of VMS and police enforcement were evaluated at a motorway site and results showed that police enforcement accompanied with VMS had greater effects on reducing speeds than either of these treatments alone. Three new remote-controlled traffic control devices—red and amber lights, red light and amber arrow, and a robotic stop/slow sign—were evaluated at a highway site. Results showed that the red light and amber arrow option produced consistent effects on the speeds at the approach to traffic controls and at a location inside the work area. This paper presents the first rigorous evaluations of these roadwork safety treatments in Queensland.

Tropical prawn trawl bycatch of fish and seasnakes reduced by Yarrow Fisheye Bycatch Reduction Device

Reducing unwanted trawl bycatch is actively encouraged in Australia, particularly in prawn trawl fisheries. We tested the performance of a Bycatch Reduction Device, the Yarrow Fisheye, during two periods of commercial fishing operations in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery, by comparing the catches of paired treatment and control nets. We compared the catch weights of the small fish and invertebrate bycatch, and the commercially important tiger prawns, from 42 trawls in 2002. The Yarrow Fisheye reduced the weight of small bycatch by a mean of 22.7%, with no loss of tiger prawn. We also compared the numbers of seasnakes caught in 41 and 72 trawls during the spring trawling seasons of 2004 and 2005, respectively. The Yarrow Fisheye reduced the catches by a mean of 43.3%. Flume-tank tests of the Yarrow Fisheye showed that this device created a slow water-flow region extending over 2 m downstream from its position in the net, and close to where the catch accumulates. Finfish and seasnakes may be exploiting this slow water-flow region to escape via the eye, Although the reductions in fish and seasnake bycatch were excellent, we think they could be further improved by relating differences in fisheye position and localised water displacements, to design and rigging changes.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.