Estimation of growth parameters from multiple-recapture data

This article develops a method for analysis of growth data with multiple recaptures when the initial ages for all individuals are unknown. The existing approaches either impute the initial ages or model them as random effects. Assumptions about the initial age are not verifiable because all the initial ages are unknown. We present an alternative approach that treats all the lengths including the length at first capture as correlated repeated measures for each individual. Optimal estimating equations are developed using the generalized estimating equations approach that only requires the first two moment assumptions. Explicit expressions for estimation of both mean growth parameters and variance components are given to minimize the computational complexity. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method works well. Two real data sets are analyzed for illustration, one from whelks (Dicathais aegaota) and the other from southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in South Australia.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Secret Squirrel Stuff in the Australian Curriculum English: The genesis of the ‘new’ grammar

In much the same way that a squirrel stores a range of food in a range of places, the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s (ACARA) Australian Curriculum: English (ACARA, 2015) stores references to grammar in a range of places. This paper explores some seemingly ‘hidden’ grammars within the AC:E to (re)discover their genesis and how they unfold across Foundation to Year 6. The first ‘Secret Squirrel’ moment centres on the introduction of a new grammar which weaves traditional Latin-based and Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) theory. The second ‘Secret Squirrel’ moment centres on the use of one sub-system of SFL Theory, the System of Appraisal, and its potential to provide an analytical lens for ‘reading’ the interpersonal meaning within narratives. The remainder of the paper draws on Goodson’s (1990) notion of curriculum as a social construction, paying attention to the levels of processes and (potential) practice. This part of the paper focuses on the System of Appraisal as it is introduced in the AC:E and then translates the Content Descriptions to an example analysis. One stimulus text, Melanie Watt’s (2012) children’s picture book ‘Scaredy Squirrel at the Beach’, is introduced then analysed using the System of Appraisal as an analytical lens for identifying how language choices ‘go to work’ (Macken-Horarik, 2003, p. 285) on readers, that is how Watt’s language choices are crafted so a ‘compliant’ child reader (Martin & White, 2005, p. 62) has the opportunity to ‘feel with’ and thus ‘adjudicate’ the behaviour of characters in particular ways (Macken-Horarik, 2003, p. 285).

Hip power analysis in individuals with transfemoral amputation: A different strategy different from stabilisation during gait stance

Introduction and Objectives Joint moments and joint powers during gait are widely used to determine the effects of rehabilitation programs as well as prosthetic fitting. Following the definition of power (dot product of joint moment and joint angular velocity) it has been previously proposed to analyse the 3D angle between both vectors, αMw. Basically, joint power is maximised when both vectors are parallel and cancelled when both vectors are orthogonal. In other words, αMw < 60° reveals a propulsion configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to positive power) while αMw > 120° reveals a resistance configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to negative power). A stabilisation configuration (less than 50% of the moment contribute to power) corresponds to 60° < αMw < 120°. Previous studies demonstrated that hip joints of able-bodied adults (AB) are mainly in a stabilisation configuration (αMw about 90°) during the stance phase of gait. [1, 2] Individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA) need to maximise joint power at the hip while controlling the prosthetic knee during stance. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that TFAs should adopt a strategy that is different from a continuous stabilisation. The objective of this study was to compute joint power and αMw for TFA and to compare them with AB. Methods Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 8 TFAs (7 males and 1 female, 46±10 years old, 1.78±0.08 m 82±13 kg) and 8 ABs (males, 25±3 years old, 1.75±0.04, m 67±6 kg). The joint moments are computed from a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee for TFAs and from a motion analysis system (Motion Analysis, Santa Rosa, USA) and force plates (Bertec, Columbus, USA) for ABs. The TFAs were fitted with an OPRA (Integrum, AB, Gothengurg, Sweden) osseointegrated implant system and their prosthetic designs include pneumatic, hydraulic and microprocessor knees. Previous studies showed that the inverse dynamics computed from the multi-axial transducer is the proper method considering the absorption at the foot and resistance at the knee. Results The peak of positive power at loading response (H1) was earlier and lower for TFA compared to AB. Although the joint power is lower, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals an obvious propulsion configuration (mean αMw about 20°) for TFA compared to a stabilisation configuration (mean αMw about 70°) for AB. The peaks of negative power at midstance (H2) and of positive power at preswing / initial swing (H3) occurred later, lower and longer for TFA compared to AB. Again, the joint powers are lower for TFA but, in this case, αMw is almost comparable (with a time lag), demonstrating a stabilisation (almost a resistance for TFA, mean αMw about 120°) and a propulsion configuration, respectively. The swing phase is not analysed in the present study. Conclusion The analysis of hip joint power may indicate that TFAs demonstrated less propulsion and resistance than ABs during the stance phase of gait. This is true from a quantitative point of view. On the contrary, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals that TFAs have a remarkable propulsion strategy at loading response and almost a resistance strategy at midstance while ABs adopted a stabilisation strategy. The propulsion configuration, with αMw close to 0°, seems to aim at maximising the positive joint power. The configuration close to resistance, with αMw far from 180°, might aim at unlocking the prosthetic knee before swing while minimising the negative power. This analysis of both joint power and 3D angle between the joint moment and the joint angular velocity provides complementary insights into the gait strategies of TFA that can be used to support evidence-based rehabilitation and fitting of prosthetic components.

The popular mechanicals

In Shakespeare's play, A Midsummer Night's Dream, six workers aspire to present a play for the Royal Wedding. We see their efforts and their antics in the framework of the Royal Court and the supernatural fairy world. We love them for their simplicity, laugh at their homespun ways and forgive their stumbles as they perform their play in the royal presence. In the marvellous irreverence of The Popular Mechanicals, Keith Robinson and Tony Taylor have thrown Shakespeare to the mercy of Australian larrikin humour and placed the lowly workers centre stage. This is A Midsummer Night's Dream without the Royals. Shakespeare's mechanicals become the stars, the kings of their own world, where dreams can come true, if only for a moment. With the innocence of clowns they love life, feel joy, know fear, bear sadness. In the end it is we the audience who become the Royal presence, to judge them if we dare.

The other country: A father's journey with autism

The memoir The Other Country and the essay Inspiration is Power examine i) contemporary experiences of autism and ii) the representation of autism disorder in scientific and autobiographical writing. The Other Country is a memoir of four years in the life of its author Michael Whelan, and his family, in the care of his son, Charlie. In February 1998, Charlie was diagnosed with autism, and in that moment Michael and his family's lives changed. The memoir describes in four parts a four-year journey through a father?s experiences: - Part 1, Welcome to Holland, the family's feelings of fear, grief and dislocation following diagnosis; - Part 2, Look at Me, the chaotic process of research and treatment, and intense early intervention programs; - Part 3, The Enchanted Cottage, the slow process of recovery that the family went through, and; - Part 4, The Long Way Home, the transformation of Charlie, Michael and his family and notions of home and normalcy. The title, The Other Country, in this context refers to the largely invisible parallel society inhabited by anyone who lives outside the mainstream. The accompanying critical essay, Inspiration is Power, examines the influence of the discourses of biomedical science and parental pathology on the representation and understanding of autism. Specifically, among autism narratives, the medical voice has an overwhelming authority and power in characterizing autistic disorder and experience for the lay reader. This discourse contests the moral authority of parental autobiographical writing, which, by contrast, characterizes autism as a personalized invading other and thief of their child. Through a critique of specific aspects of identity, narrative, evidence and authority, the essay suggests a register of rhetorical moves that may be employed to influence, and consequently empower, the reader of autism narratives.

Educators of change

Child care is a topic at the forefront of much discussion. From politicians to internet commentators, seemingly everyone has an opinion on child care in Australia at the moment. This media of late should have been an excellent opportunity to share information with parents and the wider community on the advances made in the early childhood profession through the National Quality Framework. It should have provided us with a strong platform to highlight the pedagogy and practice of educators choosing a career in early childhood...

Gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Background Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis is the most common type of spinal deformity, and whilst the risk of progression appears to be biomechanically mediated (larger deformities are more likely to progress), the detailed biomechanical mechanisms driving progression are not well understood. Gravitational forces in the upright position are the primary sustained loads experienced by the spine. In scoliosis they are asymmetrical, generating moments about the spinal joints which may promote asymmetrical growth and deformity progression. Using 3D imaging modalities to estimate segmental torso masses allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine to be determined. The resulting distribution of joint moments aids understanding of the mechanics of scoliosis progression. Methods Existing low-dose CT scans were used to estimate torso segment masses and joint moments for 20 female scoliosis patients. Intervertebral joint moments at each vertebral level were found by summing the moments of each of the torso segment masses above the required joint. Results The patients’ mean age was 15.3 years (SD 2.3; range 11.9 – 22.3 years); mean thoracic major Cobb angle 52° (SD 5.9°; range 42°-63°) and mean weight 57.5 kg (SD 11.5 kg; range 41 – 84.7 kg). Joint moments of up to 7 Nm were estimated at the apical level. No significant correlation was found between the patients’ major Cobb angles and apical joint moments. Conclusions Patients with larger Cobb angles do not necessarily have higher joint moments, and curve shape is an important determinant of joint moment distribution. These findings may help to explain the variations in progression between individual patients. This study suggests that substantial corrective forces are required of either internal instrumentation or orthoses to effectively counter the gravity-induced moments acting to deform the spinal joints of idiopathic scoliosis patients.

Twitter (probably) isn't dying, but is it becoming less sociable?

Twitter’s demise has been announced so many times over its lifetime that it’s hard to keep track of all the premature eulogies (and this one from a year ago is actually pretty insightful), but there seems to be a new intensity in the circulation of decline narratives at the moment. A couple of weeks ago there was quite a bit of heat on umair haque’s Medium story, in which he proclaimed..

Accounting for student/educator diversity: resurrecting coaction theory

This chapter challenges current approaches to defining the context and process of entrepreneurship education. In modeling our classrooms as a microcosm of the world our current and future students will enter, this chapter brings to life (and celebrates) the everpresent diversity found within. The chapter attempts to make an important (and unique) contribution to the field of enterprise education by illustrating how we can determine the success of (1) our efforts as educators, (2) our students, and (3) our various teaching methods. The chapter is based on two specific premises, the most fundamental being the assertion that the performance of student, educator and institution can only be accounted for by accepting the nature of the dialogic relationship between the student and educator and between the educator and institution. A second premise is that at any moment in time, the educator can be assessed as being either efficient or inefficient, due to the presence of observable heterogeneity in the learning environment that produces differential learning outcomes. This chapter claims that understanding and appreciating the nature of heterogeneity in our classrooms provides an avenue for improvement in all facets of learning and teaching. To explain this claim, Haskell’s (1949) theory of coaction is resurrected to provide a lens through which all manner of interaction occurring within all forms of educational contexts can be explained. Haskell (1949) asserted that coaction theory had three salient features.

Liberty

In terms of critical discourse, Liberty contributes to the ongoing aesthetic debate on ‘the sublime.’ Philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724–1804) defined the sublime as a failure of rationality in response to sensory overload: a state where the imagination is suspended, without definitive reference points—a state beyond unequivocal ‘knowing.’ I believe the events of September 11, 2001 eluded our understanding in much the same way, leaving us in a moment of suspension between awe and horror. It was an event that couldn’t be understood in terms of scope or scale. It was a moment of overload, which is so difficult to capture in art. With my work I attempt to rekindle that moment of suspension. Like the events of 9/11, Liberty defies definition. Its form is constantly changing; it is always presenting us with new layers of meaning. Nobody quite had a handle on the events that followed 9/11, because the implications were constantly shifting. In the same way, Liberty cannot be contained or defined at any moment in time. Like the events of 9/11, the full story cannot be told in a snapshot. One of the dictionary definitions for the word ‘sublime’ is the conversion of ‘a solid substance directly into a gas, without there being an intermediate liquid phase’. With this in mind, I would like to present Liberty as a work that is literally ‘sublime.’ But what’s really interesting to me about Liberty is that it presents the sublime on all levels: in its medium, in its subject matter (that moment of suspension), and in its formal (formless) presentation. On every level Liberty is sublime—subverting all tangible reference points and eluding capture entirely. Liberty is based on the Statue of Liberty in New York. However, unlike that statue which has stood in New York since 1886 and can be reasonably expected to stand for millennia, this work takes on diminishing proportions, carved as it is in carbon dioxide, a mysterious, previously unexplored medium—one which smokes, snows and dramatically vanishes into a harmless gas. Like the material this work is carved from, the civil liberties of the free world are diminishing fast, since 9/11 and before. This was my thought when I first conceived this work. Now it’s become evident that Liberty expresses a lot more than just this: it demonstrates the erosion of civil liberties, yes. However, it also presents the intangible, indefinable moments in the days and months that followed 9/11. The sculptural work will last for only a short time, and thereafter will exist only in documentation. During this time, the form is continually changing and self-refining, until it disappears entirely, to be inhaled, metabolised and literally taken to heart by viewers.

Laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities

A computer program has been developed for the prediction of buoyancy-driven laminar and turbulent flow in rectangular air-filled two-dimensional cavities with differentially heated side walls. Laminar flow predictions for a square cavity and Rayleigh numbers from Ra = 10^3 up to the onset of unsteady flow have been obtained. Accurate solutions for Ra = 5 x 10^6, 10^7, 5 x 10^7 and 10^8 are presented and an estimate for the critical Rayleigh number at which the steady laminar flow becomes unsteady is given for this geometry. Numerical predictions of turbulent flow have been obtained for RaH~0(10^9 -10^11 ) and compared with existing experimental data. A previously developed second moment closure model (Behnia et al. 1987) has been used to model the turbulence. Results indicate that a second moment closure model is capable of predicting the observed flow features.

Laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities

"This chapter discusses laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities. Natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities has become a standard problem in numerical heat transfer because of its relevance in understanding a number of problems in engineering. Current research identified a number of difficulties with regard to the numerical methods and the turbulence modeling for this class of flows. Obtaining numerical predictions at high Rayleigh numbers proved computationally expensive such that results beyond Ra ∼ 1014 are rarely reported. The chapter discusses a study in which it was found that turbulent computations in square cavities can't be extended beyond Ra ∼ O (1012) despite having developed a code that proved very efficient for the high Ra laminar regime. As the Rayleigh number increased, thin boundary layers began to form next to the vertical walls, and the central region became progressively more stagnant and highly stratified. Results obtained for the high Ra laminar regime were in good agreement with existing studies. Turbulence computations, although of a preliminary nature, indicated that a second moment closure model was capable of predicting the experimentally observed flow features."--Publisher Summary

The PerCues framework and its application for sustainable mobility

This paper presents a framework, design and study of an ambient persuasive interface. We introduce a novel framework of persua sive Cues in Ambient Intelligence (perCues). Based on this framework we designed an application for mobile devices. The application aims to persuade people to abstain from using their cars and to use public mass transportation instead in order to reduce emissions. It contains a bus schedule and information about the pollution status. We evaluated the application in two successive studies regarding user acceptance, oppor tune moments of use and persuasive effects. The perCues received a high acceptance due to its benefit for the users. The results confirm the im portance of opportune moment and user acceptance for persuasion. The findings also indicate the persuasive potential of perCues.