443 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection


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This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.

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Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

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Background: The C allele of a common polymorphism of the serotonin 2A receptor (HTR2A) gene, T102C, results in reduced synthesis of 5-HT2A receptors and has been associated with current smoking status in adults. The -1438A/G polymorphism, located in the regulatory region of this gene, is in linkage disequilibrium with T102C, and the A allele is associated with increased promoter activity and with smoking in adult males. We investigated the contributions of the HTR2A gene, chronic psychological stress, and impulsivity to the prediction of cigarette smoking status and dependence in young adults. Methods: T102C and -1438A/G genotyping was conducted on 132 healthy Caucasian young adults (47 smokers) who completed self-report measures of chronic stress, depressive symptoms, impulsive personality and cigarette use. Results: A logistic regression analysis of current cigarette smoker user status, after adjusting for gender, depressive symptom severity and chronic stress, indicated that the T102C TT genotype relative to the CC genotype (OR = 7.53), and lower punishment sensitivity (OR = 0.91) were each significant predictive risk factors. However, for number of cigarettes smoked, only lower punishment sensitivity was a significant predictor (OR = 0.81). Conclusions: These data indicate the importance of the T102C polymorphism to tobacco use but not number of cigarettes smoked for Caucasian young adults. Future studies should examine whether this is explained by effects of nicotine on the serotonin system. Lower punishment sensitivity increased risk of both smoking and of greater consumption, perhaps via a reduced sensitivity to cigarette health warnings and negative physiological effects.

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Of the numerous factors that play a role in fatal pedestrian collisions, the time of day, day of the week, and time of year can be significant determinants. More than 60% of all pedestrian collisions in 2007 occurred at night, despite the presumed decrease in both pedestrian and automobile exposure during the night. Although this trend is partially explained by factors such as fatigue and alcohol consumption, prior analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System database suggests that pedestrian fatalities increase as light decreases after controlling for other factors. This study applies graphical cross-tabulation, a novel visual assessment approach, to explore the relationships among collision variables. The results reveal that twilight and the first hour of darkness typically observe the greatest frequency of pedestrian fatal collisions. These hours are not necessarily the most risky on a per mile travelled basis, however, because pedestrian volumes are often still high. Additional analysis is needed to quantify the extent to which pedestrian exposure (walking/crossing activity) in these time periods plays a role in pedestrian crash involvement. Weekly patterns of pedestrian fatal collisions vary by time of year due to the seasonal changes in sunset time. In December, collisions are concentrated around twilight and the first hour of darkness throughout the week while, in June, collisions are most heavily concentrated around twilight and the first hours of darkness on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday nights in June may be the most dangerous times for pedestrians. Knowing when pedestrian risk is highest is critically important for formulating effective mitigation strategies and for efficiently investing safety funds. This applied visual approach is a helpful tool for researchers intending to communicate with policy-makers and to identify relationships that can then be tested with more sophisticated statistical tools.

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Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

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Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

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Questionnaires and interviews were conducted with employees and senior managers from three Australian organisations to explore the relationship between perceived managerial ownership of safety responsibilities and occupational road safety. It was found that the perceived authority of the person primarily responsible for managing road risks and perceived shared ownership of safety tasks were both significant independent predictors of safer driving behaviours. It was identified that the position of the person accepting primary risk management responsibilities was typically a member of the OHS team and typically in a management position. The extent that ownership was shared across members within the researched organisations varied, with personnel from OHS and fleet management typically accepting partial ownership of managing occupational road risks. Based on the findings, several recommendations are made to assist practitioners in managing occupational road risks.

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A range of interventions are being implemented in Australia to apprehend and deter drug driving behaviour, in particular the recent implementation of random roadside drug testing procedures in Queensland. Given this countermeasure has a strong deterrence foundation, it is of interest to determine whether deterrence-based perceptual factors are influencing this offending behaviour or whether self-reported drug driving is heavily dependent upon illicit substance consumption levels and past offending behaviour. This study involves a sample of Queensland motorists (N = 898) who completed a self-report questionnaire that collected a range of information, including drug driving and drug consumption practices, conviction history, and perceptual deterrence factors. The aim was to examine what factors influence current drug driving behaviours. Analysis of the collected data revealed that approximately 20% of participants reported drug driving at least once in the last six months. Overall, there was considerable variability in the respondents' perceptions regarding the certainty, severity and swiftness of legal sanctions, although the largest proportion of the sample did not consider such sanctions to be certain, severe or swift. In regard to predicting those who intended to drug drive again in the future, a combination of perceptual and behavioural-based factors were associated with such intentions. However, a closer examination revealed that behaviours, rather than perceptions, proved to have a greater level of influence on the current sample's future intentions to offend. This paper further outlines the major findings of the study and highlights that multi-modal interventions are most likely required to reduce the prevalence of drug driving on public roads.

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Background: Loneliness and low mood are associated with significant negative health outcomes including poor sleep, but the strength of the evidence underlying these associations varies. There is strong evidence that poor sleep quality and low mood are linked, but only emerging evidence that loneliness and poor sleep are associated. Aims: To independently replicate the finding that loneliness and poor subjective sleep quality are associated and to extend past research by investigating lifestyle regularity as a possible mediator of relationships, since lifestyle regularity has been linked to loneliness and poor sleep. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, 97 adults completed standardized measures of loneliness, lifestyle regularity, subjective sleep quality and mood. Results: Loneliness was a significant predictor of sleep quality. Lifestyle regularity was not a predictor of, nor associated with, mood, sleep quality or loneliness. Conclusions: This study provides an important independent replication of the association between poor sleep and loneliness. However, the mechanism underlying this link remains unclear. A theoretically plausible mechanism for this link, lifestyle regularity, does not explain the relationship between loneliness and poor sleep. The nexus between loneliness and poor sleep is unlikely to be broken by altering the social rhythm of patients who present with poor sleep and loneliness.

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We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

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Background: Young motorists engaging in anti-social and often dangerous driving manoeuvres (which is often referred to as “hooning” within Australia) is an increasing road safety problem. While anecdotal evidence suggests that such behaviour is positively linked with crash involvement, researchers have yet to examine whether younger drivers who deliberately break road rules and drive in an erratic manner (usually with peers) are in fact over represented in crash statistics. This paper outlines research that aimed to identify the characteristics of individuals most likely to engaging in hooning behaviours, as well as examine the frequency of such driving behaviours and if such activity is linked with self-reported crash involvement.---------- Methods: A total of 717 young drivers in Queensland voluntarily completed a questionnaire to investigate their driving behaviour and crash history.---------- Results: Quantitative analysis of the data revealed that almost half the sample reported engaging in some form of “hooning” behaviour at least once in their lifetime, although only 4% indicated heavy participation in the behaviour e.g., >50 times. Street racing was the most common activity reported by participants followed by “drifting” and then “burnouts”. Logistic regression analysis indicated that being younger and a male was predictive of reporting such anti-social driving behaviours, and importantly, a trend was identified between such behaviour and self-reported crash involvement.---------- Conclusions: This research provides preliminary evidence that younger male drivers are more likely to engage in dangerous driving behaviours, which ultimately may prove to increase their overall risk of becoming involved in a crash. This paper will further outline the study findings in regards to current enforcement efforts to deter such driving activity as well as provide direction for future research efforts in this area.---------- Research highlights: ► The self-reported driving behaviours of 717 younger Queensland drivers were examined to investigate the relationship between deliberately breaking road rules and self-reported crash involvement. ► Younger male drivers were most likely to engage in such aberrant driving behaviours and a trend was identified between such behaviour and self-reported crash involvement.

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Motorcycle and scooter crashes are significant contributors to road trauma in many low, medium and high income countries. The APEC Transportation Working Group has commissioned CARRS-Q to develop a compendium of best practice measures that can be used to reduce crashes, post-crash trauma and associated socio-economic costs. The compendium will be informed by findings from a literature review and an expert survey. The literature review examined motorcycle and scooter safety usage and fatalities along with socio-cultural factors which might influence safety in each economy. A discussion is provided regarding the processes involved in the expert survey and how this might be integrated with the findings from the literature review. The implications for developing the compendium are discussed as is the next step of a workshop to further disseminate findings. This will enable the identification of important motorcycle safety issues in APEC economies and implications for implementation of countermeasures.

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OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.

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The purpose of this investigation was to undertake pilot research to develop an understanding of the current culture of older Australian women’s (35-50 years) drinking behaviour from a uniquely female perspective. Methods Two separate focus group interviews were undertaken with women (N = 11) aged between 35 and 50 years living in South-East Queensland, Australia. Women were asked to openly discuss how and why they drink alcohol (ie., their regular drinking behaviour), how this has changed over time, and the attitudes and values that influence their behaviour. Results Participants reported that their consumption of alcohol was more regulated and controlled and although some women drank more frequently, the quantity consumed at each drinking occasion had decreased significantly. Occasional consumption of large amounts of alcohol tended to be the result of ‘incidental drinking’ as opposed to ‘determined drinking’. The reasons for alcohol consumption were found to be internal as well as social. Internal reasons included stress relief, increased relaxation and self reward. Further, alcohol was used as a social lubricant. This cohort also reported being influenced by the drinking patterns of their partners. Social group matching was however found to have a negative impact on alcohol consumption as social groups most commonly endorsed lesser levels of intoxication. Further, the women reported that they were of an age in which they felt excessive drinking to be ‘undignified’. Personal reasons such as vocational and family responsibilities further modified the levels of consumption for individual women. Finally, it was reported that perceived health risks that can result from excessive and/or repetitive drinking led to a decreased in consumption. Conclusion It is proposed that the findings of this investigation could be used to improve current knowledge regarding more mature women’s drinking culture, associated risks and risk prevention strategies.