785 resultados para RISK INDICATORS


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Airports worldwide represent key forms of critical infrastructure in addition to serving as nodes in the international aviation network. While the continued operation of airports is critical to the functioning of reliable air passenger and freight transportation, these infrastructure systems face a number of sources of disturbance that threaten their operational viability. Recent examples of high magnitude events include the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Folattau and Schofield 2010), the failure of multiple systems at the opening of Heathrow’s Terminal 5 (Brady and Davies 2010) and the Glasgow airport 2007 terrorist attack (Crichton 2008). While these newsworthy events do occur, a multitude of lower-level more common disturbances also have the potential to cause significant discontinuity to airport operations. Regional airports face a unique set of challenges, particularly in a nation like Australia where they serve to link otherwise remote and isolated communities to metropolitan hubs (Wheeler 2005), often without the resources and political attention received by larger capital city airports. This paper discusses conceptual relationships between Business Continuity Management (BCM) and High Reliability Theory, and proposes BCM as an appropriate risk-based management process to ensure continued airport operation in the face of uncertainty. In addition, it argues that that correctly implemented BCM can lead to highly reliable organisations. This is framed within the broader context of critical infrastructures and the need for adequate crisis management approaches suited to their unique requirements (Boin and McConnell 2007).

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Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The body mass index (BMI) is the most common index used to define obesity. The universal application of the same BMI classification across different ethnic groups is being challenged due to the inability of the index to differentiate fat mass (FM) and fat�]free mass (FFM) and the recognized ethnic differences in body composition. A better understanding of the body composition of Asian children from different backgrounds would help to better understand the obesity�]related health risks of people in this region. Moreover, the limitations of the BMI underscore the necessity to use where possible, more accurate measures of body fat assessment in research and clinical settings in addition to BMI, particularly in relation to the monitoring of prevention and treatment efforts. The aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in the relationship between BMI and percent body fat (%BF) in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. A total of 1039 children aged 8�]10 y were recruited using a non�]random purposive sampling approach aiming to encompass a wide BMI range from the five countries. Percent body fat (%BF) was determined using the deuterium dilution technique to quantify total body water (TBW) and subsequently derive proportions of FM and FFM. The study highlighted the sex and ethnic differences between BMI and %BF in Asian children from different countries. Girls had approximately 4.0% higher %BF compared with boys at a given BMI. Filipino boys tended to have a lower %BF than their Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai counterparts at the same age and BMI level (corrected mean %BF was 25.7�}0.8%, 27.4�}0.4%, 27.1�}0.6%, 27.7�}0.5%, 28.1�}0.5% for Filipino, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai boys, respectively), although they differed significantly from Thai and Malay boys. Thai girls had approximately 2.0% higher %BF values than Chinese, Lebanese, Filipino and Malay counterparts (however no significant difference was seen among the four ethnic groups) at a given BMI (corrected mean %BF was 31.1�}0.5%, 28.6�}0.4%, 29.2�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.5% for Thai, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Filipino girls, respectively). However, the ethnic difference in BMI�]%BF relationship varied by BMI. Compared with Caucasians, Asian children had a BMI 3�]6 units lower for a given %BF. More than one third of obese Asian children in the study were not identified using the WHO classification and more than half were not identified using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) classification. However, use of the Chinese classification increased the sensitivity by 19.7%, 18.1%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 11.3% for Chinese, Lebanese, Malay, Filipino and Thai girls, respectively. A further aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in body fat distribution in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Thailand. The skin fold thicknesses, height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and total adiposity (as determined by deuterium dilution technique) of 922 children from the four countries was assessed. Chinese boys and girls had a similar trunk�]to�]extremity skin fold thickness ratio to Thai counterparts and both groups had higher ratios than the Malays and Lebanese at a given total FM. At a given BMI, both Chinese and Thai boys and girls had a higher WC than Malays and Lebanese (corrected mean WC was 68.1�}0.2 cm, 67.8�}0.3 cm, 65.8�}0.4 cm, 64.1�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay boys, respectively; 64.2�}0.2 cm, 65.0�}0.3 cm, 62.9�}0.4 cm, 60.6�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay girls, respectively). Chinese boys and girls had lower trunk fat adjusted subscapular/suprailiac skinfold ratio compared with Lebanese and Malay counterparts. The second study aimed to develop and cross�]validate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) prediction equations of TBW and FFM for Asian pre�]pubertal children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Data on height, weight, age, gender, resistance and reactance measured by BIA were collected from 948 Asian children (492 boys and 456 girls) aged 8�]10 y from the five countries. The deuterium dilution technique was used as the criterion method for the estimation of TBW and FFM. The BIA equations were developed from the validation group (630 children randomly selected from the total sample) using stepwise multiple regression analysis and cross�]validated in a separate group (318 children) using the Bland�]Altman approach. Age, gender and ethnicity influenced the relationship between the resistance index (RI = height2/resistance), TBW and FFM. The BIA prediction equation for the estimation of TBW was: TBW (kg) = 0.231�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.066�~Height (cm) + 0.188�~Weight (kg) + 0.128�~Age (yr) + 0.500�~Sex (male=1, female=0) . 0.316�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 4.574, and for the estimation of FFM: FFM (kg) = 0.299�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.086�~Height (cm) + 0.245�~Weight (kg) + 0.260�~Age (yr) + 0.901�~Sex (male=1, female=0) �] 0.415�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 6.952. The R2 was 88.0% (root mean square error, RSME = 1.3 kg), 88.3% (RSME = 1.7 kg) for TBW and FFM equation, respectively. No significant difference between measured and predicted TBW and between measured and predicted FFM for the whole cross�]validation sample was found (bias = �]0.1�}1.4 kg, pure error = 1.4�}2.0 kg for TBW and bias = �]0.2�}1.9 kg, pure error = 1.8�}2.6 kg for FFM). However, the prediction equation for estimation of TBW/FFM tended to overestimate TBW/FFM at lower levels while underestimate at higher levels of TBW/FFM. Accuracy of the general equation for TBW and FFM compared favorably with both BMI�]specific and ethnic�]specific equations. There were significant differences between predicted TBW and FFM from external BIA equations derived from Caucasian populations and measured values in Asian children. There were three specific aims of the third study. The first was to explore the relationship between obesity and metabolic syndrome and abnormalities in Chinese children. A total of 608 boys and 800 girls aged 6�]12 y were recruited from four cities in China. Three definitions of pediatric metabolic syndrome and abnormalities were used, including the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition for adults modified by Cook et al. and de Ferranti et al. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied with different definitions, was highest using the de Ferranti definition (5.4%, 24.6% and 42.0%, respectively for normal�]weight, overweight and obese children), followed by the Cook definition (1.5%, 8.1%, and 25.1%, respectively), and the IDF definition (0.5%, 1.8% and 8.3%, respectively). Overweight and obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal�]weight children (odds ratio varied with different definitions from 3.958 to 6.866 for overweight children, and 12.640�]26.007 for obese children). Overweight and obesity also increased the risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. Central obesity and high triglycerides (TG) were the most common while hyperglycemia was the least frequent in Chinese children regardless of different definitions. The second purpose was to determine the best obesity index for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor clustering across a 2�]y follow�]up among BMI, %BF, WC and waist�]to�]height ratio (WHtR) in Chinese children. Height, weight, WC, %BF as determined by BIA, blood pressure, TG, high�]density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL�]C), and fasting glucose were collected at baseline and 2 years later in 292 boys and 277 girls aged 8�]10 y. The results showed the percentage of children who remained overweight/obese defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR and %BF was 89.7%, 93.5%, 84.5%, and 80.4%, respectively after 2 years. Obesity indices at baseline significantly correlated with TG, HDL�]C, and blood pressure at both baseline and 2 years later with a similar strength of correlations. BMI at baseline explained the greatest variance of later blood pressure. WC at baseline explained the greatest variance of later HDL�]C and glucose, while WHtR at baseline was the main predictor of later TG. Receiver�]operating characteristic (ROC) analysis explored the ability of the four indices to identify the later presence of CV risk. The overweight/obese children defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR or %BF were more likely to develop CV risk 2 years later with relative risk (RR) scores of 3.670, 3.762, 2.767, and 2.804, respectively. The final purpose of the third study was to develop age�] and gender�]specific percentiles of WC and WHtR and cut�]off points of WC and WHtR for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children. Smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHtR were produced in 2830 boys and 2699 girls aged 6�]12 y randomly selected from southern and northern China using the LMS method. The optimal age�] and gender�]specific thresholds of WC and WHtR for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering were derived in a sub�]sample (n=1845) by ROC analysis. Age�] and gender�]specific WC and WHtR percentiles were constructed. The WC thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67.2% to 83.3%. The WHtR thresholds were at the 91st and 94th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 78.6% to 88.9%. The cut�]offs of both WC and WHtR were age�] and gender�]dependent. In conclusion, the current thesis quantifies the ethnic differences in the BMI�]%BF relationship and body fat distribution between Asian children from different origins and confirms the necessity to consider ethnic differences in body composition when developing BMI and other obesity index criteria for obesity in Asian children. Moreover, ethnicity is also important in BIA prediction equations. In addition, WC and WHtR percentiles and thresholds for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children differ from other populations. Although there was no advantage of WC or WHtR over BMI or %BF in the prediction of CV risk, obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome and abnormalities than normal�]weight children regardless of the obesity index used.

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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to identify risk factors for developing complications following treatment of refractory glaucoma with transscleral diode laser cyclophotocoagulation (cyclodiode), to improve the safety profile of this treatment modality. METHOD: A retrospective analysis of 72 eyes from 70 patients who were treated with cyclodiode. RESULTS: The mean pre-treatment IOP was 37.0 mmHg (SD 11.0), with a mean post-treatment reduction in intraocular pressure (IOP) of 19.8 mmHg, and a mean IOP at last follow-up of 17.1 mmHg (SD 9.7). Mean total power delivered during treatment was 156.8 Joules (SD 82.7) over a mean of 1.3 treatments (SD 0.6). Sixteen eyes (22.2% of patients) developed complications from the treatment, with the most common being hypotony, occurring in 6 patients, including 4 with neovascular glaucoma. A higher pre-treatment IOP and higher mean total power delivery also were associated with higher complications. CONCLUSIONS: Cyclodiode is an effective treatment option for glaucoma that is refractory to other treatment options. By identifying risk factors for potential complications, cyclodiode can be modified accordingly for each patient to improve safety and efficacy.

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Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.

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This paper outlines a study to determine the correlation between the LA10(18hour) and other road traffic noise indicators. It is based on a database comprising of 404 measurement locations including 947 individual days of valid noise measurements across numerous circumstances taken between November 2001 and November 2007. This paper firstly discusses the need and constraints on the indicators and their nature of matching a suitable indicator to the various road traffic noise dynamical characteristics. The paper then presents a statistical analysis of the road traffic noise monitoring data, correlating various indicators with the LA10(18hour) statistical indicator and provides a comprehensive table of linear correlations. There is an extended analysis on relationships across the night time period. The paper concludes with a discussion on the findings.

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Increasing the number of bone marrow (BM) donors is important to ensure sufficient diversity on BM registries to meet the needs of patients. This study used an experimental approach to test the hypothesis that providing information about the risks of BM donation to allay unsubstantiated fears would reduce male and female participants’ perceptions of risk for donation and joining the Australian BM Donor Registry (ABMDR). Males’ and females’ intentions to register on the ABMDR, their attitudes, norms, and perceived behavioural control (efficacy) in relation to registering were explored also. Participants were allocated randomly to either a risk (exposed to risk information about BM donation) or no risk(not exposed to risk information) condition. In partial support of hypotheses, exposure to risk information did reduce perceived risk for registering on the ABMDR for males only. Participants in the risk condition also demonstrated lower scores on attitude (males only) and intention compared to participants in the no risk condition. These findings highlight the complex role of risk perceptions and gender differences in understanding people’s decisions to join a BM registry.

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This paper explores how the design of creative clusters as a key strategy in promoting the urban creative economy has played out in Shanghai. Creative Clusters in Europe and North America context have emerged ‘organically’. They developed spontaneously in those cities which went through a period of post-industrial decline. Creative Industries grew up in these cities as part of a new urban economy in the wake of old manufacturing industries. Artists and creative entrepreneurs moved into vacant warehouses and factories and began the trend of ‘creative clusters’. Such clusters facilitate the transfer of tacit knowledge through informal learning, the efficient sourcing of skills and information, competition, collaboration and learning, inter-cluster trading and networking. This new urban phenomenon was soon targeted by local economic development policy in charge of re-generating and re-structuralizing industrial activities in cities. Rising interest from real estate and local economic development has led to more and more planned creative clusters. In the aim of catching up with the world’s creative cities, Shanghai has planned over 100 creative clusters since 2005. Along with these officially designed creative clusters, there are organically emerged creative clusters that are much smaller in scale and much more informal in terms of the management. And they emerged originally in old residential areas just outside the CBD and expand to include French concession the most sort after residential area at the edge of CBD. More recently, office buildings within CBD are made available for creative usages. From fringe to CBD, these organic creative clusters provide crucial evidences for the design of creative clusters. This paper will be organized in 2 parts. In the first part, I will present a case study of 8 ‘official’ clusters (title granted by local govenrment) in Shanghai through which I am hoping to develop some key indicators of the success/failure of creative clusters as well as link them with their physical, social and operational efficacies. In the second part, a variety of ‘alternative’ clusters (organicly formed clusters most of which are not recongnized by the government) supplies with us the possibilities of rethinking the so-called ‘cluster development strategy’ in terms of what kind of spaces are appropriate for use by clusters? Who should manage them and in what format? And ultimately what are their relationship with the rest of the city should be defined?

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Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells-Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59 to 99.9% for a 90 min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.

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Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

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With increasing media exposure and evidence of environmental impacts, it is increasingly recognized that incorporating sustainability principles in construction works is both crucial and beneficial. However a recent survey reveals that among stakeholders of infrastructure projects such as roads, there is no common understanding on what constitutes sustainability in real-life projects. Sustainability has been interpreted widely and differently and as a result, sustainability outcomes are not tangible at the project level or often neglected. Under such conditions, policies and strategies on sustainability remain largely ideological and cannot be sufficiently reflected in the actual project delivery. The major difficulty of this sustainability pursuit lies in the lack of consensus among the experts on sustainability criteria and indicators. To move ahead, these criteria and indicators are to be agreed upon. This paper reviews the sustainable infrastructure development, its criteria and indicators, focusing on road infrastructure context. It goes on to introduce a Delphi study, an integral part of a QUT research, aimed at identifying critical sustainability criteria and indicators for Australian road infrastructure projects. It paves the way for further identification of solutions for each critical indicator at a subsequent stage. The criteria, indicators and solutions will be encapsulated into a decision making framework for the enhancement of sustainability deliverables. By doing so, the research will promote more integrated thinking of and consistent approaches to the sustainability agenda in road and highway infrastructure projects in Australia.

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Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

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The focus of governments on increasing active travel has motivated renewed interest in cycling safety. Bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers so understanding the relationship among factors in bicyclist crash risk is critically important for identifying effective policy tools, for informing bicycle infrastructure investments, and for identifying high risk bicycling contexts. This study aims to better understand the complex relationships between bicyclist self reported injuries resulting from crashes (e.g. hitting a car) and non-crashes (e.g. spraining an ankle) and perceived risk of cycling as a function of cyclist exposure, rider conspicuity, riding environment, rider risk aversion, and rider ability. Self reported data from 2,500 Queensland cyclists are used to estimate a series of seemingly unrelated regressions to examine the relationships among factors. The major findings suggest that perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates, nor do injury rates influence perceived risks of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling as risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding, tend to always wear mandatory helmets and front lights, and lower their perception of risk by increasing days per week of riding and by increasing riding proportion on bicycle paths. Riders who always wear helmets have lower crash injury risk. Increasing the number of days per week riding tends to decrease both crash injury and non crash injury risk (e.g. a sprain). Further work is needed to replicate some of the findings in this study.

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Latin American online purchase behaviour with a specific focus on the influence of perceived risk and trust. While studies of this nature have been conducted quite extensively in developed countries, their application in developing countries, such as Latin America is limited. Our study addresses this gap in the literature with an empirical study conducted in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The authors develop and test a proposed model of the influence of consumer’s perceptions of risk and trust on their attitudes and intentions to purchase on the Internet. An online survey method is used. The sample consists of 176 Chilean consumers who have made at least one purchase online. The data is analysed using structural equation modelling technique (SEM). Findings: The analysis revealed that of the perceived risk and trust factors examined, trust in third party assurances and a cultural environment of trust had the strongest positive influence on intentions to continuing purchasing online. Perceived risk had an inverse relationship with attitude and consumers’ attitude has a positive influence on intentions to purchase online. Trust in online vendors and a propensity to trust were both insignificant. Practical implications: Practically, these results identity which risk and trust beliefs towards purchasing online have the most effect thereby providing insights into how companies should seek to mitigate perceptions of risk to encourage new and return purchasers. Additionally, this research shows that consumers in a Latin American country, recognised as a collectivist, high risk avoidance culture, are willing to make purchases online despite the risks involved. Originality/value: The study and its results is one of few available that consider a Latin American context. The value of the findings provides insights into the specific risk and trust factors that influence Chilean consumers when considering purchasing online. The tested model adds value not only to the literature on Latin American consumer behaviour but also provides guidance for companies offering online retailing facilities in these less developed countries.

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ABSRACT. Despite the surge in online retail sales in recent years there still remains reluctance by consumers to complete the online shopping process. A number of authors have attributed consumers’ reluctance to purchase online to apparent barriers. However, such barriers as yet have not been fully examined within a theoretical context. This research explores the application of the perceived risk theoretical framework. Specifically, performance risk and the influence of perceived performance risk has on the phenomenon of Internet Abandoned Cart Syndrome (ACS) is evaluated. To explore this phenomenon, a number of extrinsic cues are identified as playing a major role in the performance evaluation process of online purchases. The results of this study suggest the extrinsic cues of brand, reputation, design and price have an overall impact on the performance evaluation process just prior to an online purchase. Varying these cues either positively or negatively had a strong impact on performance evaluation. Further, it was found that positive or negative reputation was heavily associated with shopping cart abandonment.