Identification of reduced models of power system areas using phasor measurement units

In this paper an approach is presented for identification of a reduced model for coherent areas in power systems using phasor measurement units to represent the inter-area oscillations of the system. The generators which are coherent in a wide range of operating conditions form the areas in power systems and the reduced model is obtained by representing each area by an equivalent machine. The reduced nonlinear model is then identified based on the data obtained from measurement units. The simulation is performed on three test systems and the obtained results show high accuracy of identification process.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

The consultative process used in outreach : a narrative account

Aim The aim of this paper was to provide a narrative account of the communication skills used in an effective outreach consultation utilizing Neighbour’s consultative model. Other consultation models were considered; however, because of their overly comprehensive approach or emphasis on behaviour modification, these were deemed inappropriate. Background The nursing profession has endured significant changes of late and as a result is developing more autonomous roles in both the community and the acute health care settings. In the past, the term consultancy was used within the medical context; nowadays, there are advance nurse practitioners for whom consultancy is an integral part of their role. Although every nursing interaction is in essence a consultation, the fact that nurses are taking up on new advanced roles highlights the necessity for nurses to develop their consultation skills even further. Therefore, it makes sense to explore what aspects of that consultancy role needs special consideration in order to ensure that positive outcomes are achieved. Conclusions This paper has used a narrative account to uncover those salient skills needed to enhance the therapeutic relationship with a patient requiring the services of outreach. Furthermore, the application of a recognized consultation model was used to elucidate the underpinning knowledge of systematic history taking and assessment as well as demonstrating the communication skills and strategies needed to increase the patient’s participation and empowerment throughout the consultation. Relevance to clinical practice Effective communication skills encompassed in a consultative model are integral to the success in safeguarding the well-being of patients requiring advanced levels of care. Prejudging or pre-empting information being conveyed can be detrimental to patient safety and may prolong or complicate treatment plans.

Impact of passenger group dynamics on an airport evacuation process using an agent-based model

The safety of passengers is a major concern to airports. In the event of crises, having an effective and efficient evacuation process in place can significantly aid in enhancing passenger safety. Hence, it is necessary for airport operators to have an in-depth understanding of the evacuation process of their airport terminal. Although evacuation models have been used in studying pedestrian behaviour for decades, little research has been done in considering the evacuees’ group dynamics and the complexity of the environment. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger evacuation process. Different exits were allocated to passengers based on their location and security level. The simulation results show that the evacuation time can be influenced by passenger group dynamics. This model also provides a convenient way to design airport evacuation strategy and examine its efficiency. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

The Six Core Elements of Business Process Management

The previous chapters gave an insightful introduction into the various facets of Business Process Management. We now share a rich understanding of the essential ideas behind designing and managing processes for organizational purposes. We have also learned about the various streams of research and development that have influenced contemporary BPM. As a matter of fact, BPM has become a holistic management discipline. As such, it requires that a plethora of facets needs to be addressed for its successful und sustainable application. This chapter provides a framework that consolidates and structures the essential factors that constitute BPM as a whole. Drawing from research in the field of maturity models, we suggest six core elements of BPM: strategic alignment, governance, methods, information technology, people, and culture. These six elements serve as the structure for this BPM Handbook.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.

Probability and story-telling : normative and descriptive models of juridical proof

The operation of the law rests on the selection of an account of the facts. Whether this involves prediction or postdiction, it is not possible to achieve certainty. Any attempt to model the operation of the law completely will therefore raise questions of how to model the process of proof. In the selection of a model a crucial question will be whether the model is to be used normatively or descriptively. Focussing on postdiction, this paper presents and contrasts the mathematical model with the story model. The former carries the normative stamp of scientific approval, whereas the latter has been developed by experimental psychologists to describe how humans reason. Neil Cohen's attempt to use a mathematical model descriptively provides an illustration of the dangers in not clearly setting this parameter of the modelling process. It should be kept in mind that the labels 'normative' and 'descriptive' are not eternal. The mathematical model has its normative limits, beyond which we may need to critically assess models with descriptive origins.

Understanding and impacting the practice of business process management

This presentation will explore how BPM research can seamlessly combine the academic requirement of rigor with the aim to impact the practice of Business Process Management. After a brief introduction into the research agendas as they are perceived by different BPM communities, two research projects will be discussed that illustrate how empirically-informed quantitative and qualitative research, combined with design science, can lead to outcomes that BPM practitioners are willing to adopt. The first project studies the practice of process modeling using Information Systems theory, and demonstrates how a better understanding of this practice can inform the design of modeling notations and methods. The second project studies the adoption of process management within organizations, and leads to models of how organizations can incrementally transition to greater levels of BPM maturity. The presentation will conclude with recommendations for how the BPM research and practitioner communities can increasingly benefit from each other.

An approach for extending Building Information Models (BIM) to specifications

The Construction industry accounts for a tenth of global GDP. Still, challenges such as slow adoption of new work processes, islands of information, and legal disputes, remain frequent, industry-wide occurrences despite various attempts to address them. In response, IT-based approaches have been adopted to explore collaborative ways of executing construction projects. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an exemplar of integrative technologies whose 3D-visualisation capabilities have fostered collaboration especially between clients and design teams. Yet, the ways in which specification documents are created and used in capturing clients' expectations based on industry standards have remained largely unchanged since the 18th century. As a result, specification-related errors are still common place in an industry where vast amounts of information are consumed as well as produced in the course project implementation in the built environment. By implication, processes such as cost planning which depend on specification-related information remain largely inaccurate even with the use of BIM-based technologies. This paper briefly distinguishes between non-BIM-based and BIM-based specifications and reports on-going efforts geared towards the latter. We review exemplars aimed at extending Building Information Models to specification information embedded within the objects in a product library and explore a viable way of reasoning about a semi-automated process of specification using our product library.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Creating flexible mappings between building information models and cost information

During the early design stages of construction projects, accurate and timely cost feedback is critical to design decision making. This is particularly challenging for cost estimators, as they must quickly and accurately estimate the cost of the building when the design is still incomplete and evolving. State-of-the-art software tools typically use a rule-based approach to generate detailed quantities from the design details present in a building model and relate them to the cost items in a cost estimating database. In this paper, we propose a generic approach for creating and maintaining a cost estimate using flexible mappings between a building model and a cost estimate. The approach uses queries on the building design that are used to populate views, and each view is then associated with one or more cost items. The benefit of this approach is that the flexibility of modern query languages allows the estimator to encode a broad variety of relationships between the design and estimate. It also avoids the use of a common standard to which both designers and estimators must conform, allowing the estimator added flexibility and functionality to their work.

Tailoring carbon nanotips in the plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition: Effect of the process parameters

Carbon nanotips have been synthesized from a thin carbon film deposited on silicon by bias-enhanced hot filament chemical vapor deposition under different process parameters. The results of scanning electron microscopy indicate that high-quality carbon nanotips can only be obtained under conditions when the ion flux is effectively drawn from the plasma sustained in a CH4 + NH3 + H2 gas mixture. It is shown that the morphology of the carbon nanotips can be controlled by varying the process parameters such as the applied bias, gas pressure, and the NH3 / H2 mass flow ratios. The nanotip formation process is examined through a model that accounts for surface diffusion, in addition to sputtering and deposition processes included in the existing models. This model makes it possible to explain the major difference in the morphologies of the carbon nanotips formed without and with the aid of the plasma as well as to interpret the changes of their aspect ratio caused by the variation in the ion/gas fluxes. Viable ways to optimize the plasma-based process parameters to synthesize high-quality carbon nanotips are suggested. The results are relevant to the development of advanced plasma-/ion-assisted methods of nanoscale synthesis and processing.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

What are pregnant women told about models of maternity care in Australia? A retrospective study of women's reports

Objective To describe women’s reports of the model of care options General Practitioners (GPs) discussed with them at the first pregnancy consultation and women’s self-reported role in decisionmaking about model of care. Methods Women who had recently given birth responded to survey items about the models of care GPs discussed, their role in final decision-making, and socio-demographic, obstetric history, and early pregnancy characteristics. Results The proportion of women with whom each model of care was discussed varied between 8.2% (for private midwifery care with home birth) and 64.4% (GP shared care). Only 7.7% of women reported that all seven models were discussed. Exclusive discussion about private obstetric care and about all public models was common, and women’s health insurance status was the strongest predictor of the presence of discussions about each model. Most women (82.6%) reported active involvement in final decision-making about model of care. Conclusion Although most women report involvement in maternity model of care decisions, they remain largely uninformed about the breadth of available model of care options. Practical implications Strategies that facilitate women’s access to information on the differentiating features and outcomes for all models of care should be prioritized to better ensure equitable and quality decisions.