The Learning Component of Dynamic Allocation Indices

For a multiarmed bandit problem with exponential discounting the optimal allocation rule is defined by a dynamic allocation index defined for each arm on its space. The index for an arm is equal to the expected immediate reward from the arm, with an upward adjustment reflecting any uncertainty about the prospects of obtaining rewards from the arm, and the possibilities of resolving those uncertainties by selecting that arm. Thus the learning component of the index is defined to be the difference between the index and the expected immediate reward. For two arms with the same expected immediate reward the learning component should be larger for the arm for which the reward rate is more uncertain. This is shown to be true for arms based on independent samples from a fixed distribution with an unknown parameter in the cases of Bernoulli and normal distributions, and similar results are obtained in other cases.

A robust approach to design a single facility layout plan in dynamic manufacturing environments using a permutation-based genetic algorithm

During the past few decades, developing efficient methods to solve dynamic facility layout problems has been focused on significantly by practitioners and researchers. More specifically meta-heuristic algorithms, especially genetic algorithm, have been proven to be increasingly helpful to generate sub-optimal solutions for large-scale dynamic facility layout problems. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the manufacturing factors in addition to the scale of the layout problem calls for a mixed genetic algorithm–robust approach that could provide a single unlimited layout design. The present research aims to devise a customized permutation-based robust genetic algorithm in dynamic manufacturing environments that is expected to be generating a unique robust layout for all the manufacturing periods. The numerical outcomes of the proposed robust genetic algorithm indicate significant cost improvements compared to the conventional genetic algorithm methods and a selective number of other heuristic and meta-heuristic techniques.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

The motivational benefits of specific versus general optimism

This study addresses the question whether a specific, work-related form of optimistic thinking has motivational consequences in terms of work engagement above and beyond general optimism over time. A specific form of optimistic thinking is focus on opportunities. Focus on opportunities is a future-oriented belief that describes how many plans, goals, and possibilities people expect to have in their future at work. Based on a cross-lagged panel design with a two-year time lag and data from a sample of 124 German business owners, results of structural equation modeling showed that focus on opportunities positively predicted changes in work engagement over time, even when controlling for general optimism. This finding supports propositions of social cognition and self-regulation theories that emphasize the importance of a specific form of optimism that has motivating potential by referring to future work goals and opportunities

Organizational competencies and dynamic Accounting Information System capability: Impact on AIS processes and firm performance

Accounting information systems (AIS) capture and process accounting data and provide valuable information for decision-makers. However, in a rapidly changing environment, continual management of the AIS is necessary for organizations to optimise performance outcomes. We suggest that building a dynamic AIS capability enables accounting process and organizational performance. Using the dynamic capabilities framework (Teece 2007) we propose that a dynamic AIS capability can be developed through the synergy of three competencies: a flexible AIS, having a complementary business intelligence system and accounting professionals with IT technical competency. Using survey data, we find evidence of a positive association between a dynamic AIS capability, accounting process performance, and overall firm performance. The results suggest that developing a dynamic AIS resource can add value to an organization. This study provides guidance for organizations looking to leverage the performance outcomes of their AIS environment.

A review on exploring the behavior of multi-layer composite structures under dynamic loading

This paper reviews the recent research progress on multi-layer composite structures composed of variety of materials. The utilization of multi-layer composite system is found to be common in metal structures and pavement systems. The layer of composite structure designed to encounter heavy dynamic energy should have sufficient ductility to counteract the intensity of energy. Therefore, the selection of materials and enhancement of interface bonding become crucial and both are discussed in this paper. The failure modes have also been explored in conjunction with stresses at failures and inferred solutions are also revealed. The paper attempts to reveal all technical facts on multi-layer composite structure in a broad field.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Assessment of motivation to control alcohol use: The motivational thought frequency and state motivation scales for alcohol control

Introduction The Elaborated Intrusion Theory of Desire holds that desires for functional and dysfunctional goals share a common form. Both are embodied cognitive events, characterised by affective intensity and frequency. Accordingly, we developed scales to measure motivational cognitions for functional goals (Motivational Thought Frequency, MTF; State Motivation, SM), based on the existing Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ). When applied to increasing exercise, MTF and SM showed the same three-factor structure as the CEQ (Intensity, Imagery, Availability). The current study tested the internal structure and concurrent validity of the MTF and SM Scales when applied to control of alcohol consumption (MTF-A; SM-A). Methods Participants (N = 417) were adult tertiary students, staff or community members who had recently engaged in high-risk drinking or were currently trying to control alcohol consumption. They completed an online survey comprising the MTF-A, SM-A, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Readiness to Change Questionnaire (RCQ) and demographics. Results Confirmatory Factor Analysis gave acceptable fit for the MTF-A, but required the loss of one SM-A item, and was improved by intercorrelations of error terms. Higher scores were associated with more severe problems on the AUDIT and with higher Contemplation and Action scores on the RCQ. Conclusions The MTF-A and SM-A show potential as measures of motivation to control drinking. Future research will examine their predictive validity and sensitivity to change. The scales' application to both increasing functional and decreasing dysfunctional behaviours is consistent with EI Theory's contention that both goal types operate in similar ways.

Functional Imagery Training to reduce snacking: Testing a novel motivational intervention based on Elaborated Intrusion theory

Functional Imagery Training (FIT) is a new theory-based, manualized intervention that trains positive goal imagery. Multisensory episodic imagery of proximal personal goals is elicited and practised, to sustain motivation and compete with less functional cravings. This study tested the impact of a single session of FIT plus a booster phone call on snacking. In a stepped-wedge design, 45 participants who wanted to lose weight or reduce snacking were randomly assigned to receive a session of FIT immediately or after a 2-week delay. High-sugar and high-fat snacks were recorded using timeline follow back for the previous 3 days, at baseline, 2 and 4 weeks. At 2 weeks, snacking was lower in the immediate group than in the delayed group, and the reduction after FIT was replicated in the delayed group between 2 and 4 weeks. Frequencies of motivational thoughts about snack reduction rose following FIT for both groups, and this change correlated with reductions in snacking and weight loss. By showing that FIT can support change in eating behaviours, these findings show its potential as a motivational intervention for weight management.

Additively manufactured device for dynamic culture of large arrays of 3D tissue engineered constructs

The ability to test large arrays of cell and biomaterial combinations in 3D environments is still rather limited in the context of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. This limitation can be generally addressed by employing highly automated and reproducible methodologies. This study reports on the development of a highly versatile and upscalable method based on additive manufacturing for the fabrication of arrays of scaffolds, which are enclosed into individualized perfusion chambers. Devices containing eight scaffolds and their corresponding bioreactor chambers are simultaneously fabricated utilizing a dual extrusion additive manufacturing system. To demonstrate the versatility of the concept, the scaffolds, while enclosed into the device, are subsequently surface-coated with a biomimetic calcium phosphate layer by perfusion with simulated body fluid solution. 96 scaffolds are simultaneously seeded and cultured with human osteoblasts under highly controlled bidirectional perfusion dynamic conditions over 4 weeks. Both coated and noncoated resulting scaffolds show homogeneous cell distribution and high cell viability throughout the 4 weeks culture period and CaP-coated scaffolds result in a significantly increased cell number. The methodology developed in this work exemplifies the applicability of additive manufacturing as a tool for further automation of studies in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are 23,500 level crossings in Australia. In these types of environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and how road users and pedestrians engage with crossings. A series of on-site observations were performed over a 2-day period at a 3-track active crossing. This was followed by 52 interviews with local business owners and members of the public. Data were captured using a manual-coding scheme for recording and categorising violations. Over 700 separate road user and pedestrian violations were recorded, with representations in multiple categories. Time stamping revealed that the crossing was active for 59% of the time in some morning periods. Further, trains could take up to 4-min to arrive following its first activation. Many pedestrians jaywalked under side rails and around active boom gates. In numerous cases pedestrians put themselves at risk in order to beat or catch the approaching train, ignored signs to stop walking when the lights were flashing. Analysis of interview data identified themes associated with congestion, safety, and violations. This work offers insight into context specific issues associated with active level crossing protection.