Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Carbon, biodiversity and regional natural resource planning : towards high impact next generation plans

Given the increased importance of adaptation debates in global climate negotiations, pressure to achieve biodiversity, food and water security through managed landscape-scale adaptation will likely increase across the globe over the coming decade. In parallel, emerging market-based, terrestrial greenhouse gas abatement programs present a real opportunity to secure such adaptation to climate change through enhanced landscape resilience. Australia has an opportunity to take advantage of such programs through regional planning aspects of its governance arrangements for NRM. This paper explores necessary reforms to Australia's regional NRM planning systems to ensure that they will be better able to direct the nation's emerging GGA programs to secure enhanced landscape adaptation. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

An approach for adaptive and integrated environmental planning to deal with uncertainty in a Great Barrier Reef Catchment

This paper presents the Mossman Mill District Practices Framework. It was developed in the Wet Tropics region within the Great Barrier Reef in north-eastern Australia to describe the environmental benefits of agricultural management practices for the sugar cane industry. The framework translates complex, unclear and overlapping environmental plans, policy and legal arrangements into a simple framework of management practices that landholders can use to improve their management actions. Practices range from those that are old or outdated through to aspirational practices that have the potential to achieve desired resource condition targets. The framework has been applied by stakeholders at multiple scales to better coordinate and integrate a range of policy arrangements to improve natural resource management. It has been used to structure monitoring and evaluation in order to underpin a more adaptive approach to planning at mill district and property scale. Potentially, the framework and approach can be applied across fields of planning where adaptive management is needed. It has the potential to overcome many of the criticisms of property-scale and regional Natural Resource Management.

A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

An algebraic analysis of trivium ciphers based on the boolean satisfiability problem

Trivium is a stream cipher candidate of the eStream project. It has successfully moved into phase three of the selection process under the hardware category. No attacks faster than the exhaustive search have so far been reported on Trivium. Bivium-A and Bivium-B are simplified versions of Trivium that are built on the same design principles but with two registers. The simplified design is useful in investigating Trivium type ciphers with a reduced complexity and provides insight into effective attacks which could be extended to Trivium. This paper focuses on an algebraic analysis which uses the boolean satisfiability problem in propositional logic. For reduced variants of the cipher, this analysis recovers the internal state with a minimal amount of keystream observations.

Design and construction of an in-plant activation cassette for transgene expression and recombinant protein production in plants

Virus-based transgene expression systems have become particularly valuable for recombinant protein production in plants. The dual-module in-plant activation (INPACT) expression platform consists of a uniquely designed split-gene cassette incorporating the cis replication elements of Tobacco yellow dwarf geminivirus (TYDV) and an ethanol-inducible activation cassette encoding the TYDV Rep and RepA replication-associated proteins. The INPACT system is essentially tailored for recombinant protein production in stably transformed plants and provides both inducible and high-level transient transgene expression with the potential to be adapted to diverse crop species. The construction of a novel split-gene cassette, the inducible nature of the system and the ability to amplify transgene expression via rolling-circle replication differentiates this system from other DNA- and RNA-based virus vector systems used for stable or transient recombinant protein production in plants. Here we provide a detailed protocol describing the design and construction of a split-gene INPACT cassette, and we highlight factors that may influence optimal activation and amplification of gene expression in transgenic plants. By using Nicotiana tabacum, the protocol takes 6-9 months to complete, and recombinant proteins expressed using INPACT can accumulate to up to 10% of the leaf total soluble protein.