A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

Socio-environmental variability and Barmah Forest virus disease transmission : a review of epidemiological evidence and future prospects

Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. BFV transmission depends on factors such as climate, virus, vector and the human population. However, the impact of climatic and social factors on BFV remains to be determined. This paper provided an overview of current research and discusses the future research directions on the BFV transmission. These research findings could be regarded as an impetus towards BFV prevention and control strategies.

A Kallikrein 15 (KLK15) single nucleotide polymorphism located close to a novel exon shows evidence of association with poor ovarian cancer survival

KLK15 over-expression is reported to be a significant predictor of reduced progression-free survival and overall survival in ovarian cancer. Our aim was to analyse the KLK15 gene for putative functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and assess the association of these and KLK15 HapMap tag SNPs with ovarian cancer survival. Results In silico analysis was performed to identify KLK15 regulatory elements and to classify potentially functional SNPs in these regions. After SNP validation and identification by DNA sequencing of ovarian cancer cell lines and aggressive ovarian cancer patients, 9 SNPs were shortlisted and genotyped using the Sequenom iPLEX Mass Array platform in a cohort of Australian ovarian cancer patients (N = 319). In the Australian dataset we observed significantly worse survival for the KLK15 rs266851 SNP in a dominant model (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% CI 1.02-1.96). This association was observed in the same direction in two independent datasets, with a combined HR for the three studies of 1.16 (1.00-1.34). This SNP lies 15bp downstream of a novel exon and is predicted to be involved in mRNA splicing. The mutant allele is also predicted to abrogate an HSF-2 binding site. Conclusions We provide evidence of association for the SNP rs266851 with ovarian cancer survival. Our results provide the impetus for downstream functional assays and additional independent validation studies to assess the role of KLK15 regulatory SNPs and KLK15 isoforms with alternative intracellular functional roles in ovarian cancer survival.

Validation of scales measuring self-efficacy and outcome expectancy in evidence-based practice

Background: Evidence-based practice (EBP) is embraced internationally as an ideal approach to improve patient outcomes and provide cost-effective care. However, despite the support for and apparent benefits of evidence-based practice, it has been shown to be complex and difficult to incorporate into the clinical setting. Research exploring implementation of evidence-based practice has highlighted many internal and external barriers including clinicians’ lack of knowledge and confidence to integrate EBP into their day-to-day work. Nurses in particular often feel ill-equipped with little confidence to find, appraise and implement evidence. Aims: The following study aimed to undertake preliminary testing of the psychometric properties of tools that measure nurses’ self-efficacy and outcome expectancy in regard to evidence-based practice. Methods: A survey design was utilised in which nurses who had either completed an EBP unit or were randomly selected from a major tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane, Australia were sent two newly developed tools: 1) Self-efficacy in Evidence-Based Practice (SE-EBP) scale and 2) Outcome Expectancy for Evidence-Based Practice (OE-EBP) scale. Results: Principal Axis Factoring found three factors with eigenvalues above one for the SE-EBP explaining 73% of the variance and one factor for the OE-EBP scale explaining 82% of the variance. Cronbach’s alpha for SE-EBP, three SE-EBP factors and OE-EBP were all >.91 suggesting some item redundancy. The SE-EBP was able to distinguish between those with no prior exposure to EBP and those who completed an introductory EBP unit. Conclusions: While further investigation of the validity of these tools is needed, preliminary testing indicates that the SE-EBP and OE-EBP scales are valid and reliable instruments for measuring health professionals’ confidence in the process and the outcomes of basing their practice on evidence.

Falls after discharge from hospital : is there a gap between older peoples' knowledge about falls prevention strategies and the research evidence?

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine whether older people are prepared to engage in appropriate falls prevention strategies after discharge from hospital. Design and Methods We used a semi-structured interview to survey older patients about to be discharged from hospital and examined their knowledge regarding falls prevention strategies to utilize in the post-discharge period. The study was part of a prospective cohort study, nested within a larger, randomized controlled trial. Participants (n = 333) were asked to suggest strategies to reduce their falls risk at home after discharge, and their responses were compared with current reported research evidence for falls prevention interventions.  Results Participants’ strategies (n = 629) were classified into 7 categories: behavioral, support while mobilizing, approach to movement, physical environment, visual, medical, and activities or exercise. Although exercise has been identified as an effective falls risk reduction strategy, only 2.9% of participants suggested engaging in exercises. Falls prevention was most often conceptualized by participants as requiring 1 (35.4%) or 2 (40.8%) strategies for avoiding an accidental event, rather than engaging in sustained multiple risk reduction behaviors.  Implications Results demonstrate that older patients have low levels of knowledge about appropriate falls prevention strategies that could be used after discharge in spite of their increased falls risk during this period. Findings suggest that health care workers should design and deliver falls prevention education programs specifically targeted to older people who are to be discharged from hospital.

Ownership structure and concentration and the timeliness of corporate earnings : Malaysian evidence

This thesis provides the first evidence on how ownership concentration and structure relate to the timeliness of price discovery and reporting lags in Malaysia. Based on a sample of 1,276 Malaysian firms from 1996 to 2009, the results show that ownership concentration and the identity of the largest shareholder matter to the timeliness of price discovery and reporting lags. Specifically, closely-held firms are more timely in their price discovery and have shorter reporting lags, particularly if the largest shareholder is a foreigner or a financial institution. Government-owned firms have longer reporting lags, as expected, but we find no evidence that family-owned firms have significantly different timeliness of price discovery and reporting lags than other firms. Additional analysis shows that prior to the implementation of the Malaysian Code of Corporate Governance, firms were more timely in their price discovery but longer in their reporting lag.

As trajetorias de carreiras tradicionais estao dando passegem as proteanas? Um estudo com gereentes no setor public Australiano com foco em diferencas quanto ao genero ( Have traditional career paths given way to protean ones?: Evidence from senior managers in the Australian public sector)

Purpose – This mixed-method study aims to determine the extent to which the career paths of senior managers conform with the traditional versus protean elements described in the careers literature and whether these paths vary by gender. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 15 senior managers (seven women and eight men) in a large public sector agency in Australia were interviewed about their career trajectories to date. Data were coded according to four major areas which characterise and distinguish between traditional and protean careers: development, orientation of the employee, definition of success, and organisational environment. A total of 81 managers (34 women and 47 men) from the same organisation were also surveyed. Variables of interest were those that could be triangulated with qualitative data such as the availability of career opportunities. Findings – Results suggest that, contrary to much existing literature which proposes that all careers have been fundamentally altered, the traditional career which relies on length of service, geographic mobility and a steady climb up the corporate ladder, is still the dominant model in some organisations. However, the trend towards protean careers is evident and is more pronounced for women than for men. Research limitations/implications – The specific nature of the organisation (large, male-dominated, public sector) may limit the generalisability of results. Practical implications – The framework used to explore career paths according to traditional/ protean elements in this study may assist human resource practitioners to develop appropriate strategies which maximise the professional development of employees. Originality/value – The results of this research challenge the universality of change in the nature of careers, particularly in public sector environments.

The acquisition of an artificial logographic script and bilingual working memory : Evidence for L1-specific orthographic processing skills transfer in Chinese-English bilinguals

Studies of orthographic skills transfer between languages focus mostly on working memory (WM) ability in alphabetic first language (L1) speakers when learning another, often alphabetically congruent, language. We report two studies that, instead, explored the transferability of L1 orthographic processing skills in WM in logographic-L1 and alphabetic-L1 speakers. English-French bilingual and English monolingual (alphabetic-L1) speakers, and Chinese-English (logographic-L1) speakers, learned a set of artificial logographs and associated meanings (Study 1). The logographs were used in WM tasks with and without concurrent articulatory or visuo-spatial suppression. The logographic-L1 bilinguals were markedly less affected by articulatory suppression than alphabetic-L1 monolinguals (who did not differ from their bilingual peers). Bilinguals overall were less affected by spatial interference, reflecting superior phonological processing skills or, conceivably, greater executive control. A comparison of span sizes for meaningful and meaningless logographs (Study 2) replicated these findings. However, the logographic-L1 bilinguals’ spans in L1 were measurably greater than those of their alphabetic-L1 (bilingual and monolingual) peers; a finding unaccounted for by faster articulation rates or differences in general intelligence. The overall pattern of results suggests an advantage (possibly perceptual) for logographic-L1 speakers, over and above the bilingual advantage also seen elsewhere in third language (L3) acquisition.

Undrained sediment loading key to long-runout submarine mass movements : evidence from the Caribbean Volcanic Arc

Long undersea debris runout can be facilitated by a boundary layer formed by weak marine sediments under a moving slide mass. Undrained loading of such offshore sediment results in a profound drop of basal shear resistance, compared to subaerial shear resistance, enabling long undersea runout. Thus large long-runout submarine landslides are not truly enigmatic (Voight and Elsworth 1992, 1997), but are understandable in terms of conventional geotechnical principles. A corollary is that remoulded undrained strength, and not friction angle, should be used for basal resistance in numerical simulations. This hypothesis is testable via drilling and examining the structure at the soles of undersea debris avalanches for indications of incorporation of sheared marine sediments, by tests of soil properties, and by simulations. Such considerations of emplacement process are an aim of ongoing research in the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean Sea), where multiple offshore debris avalanche and dome-collapse debris deposits have been identified since 1999 on swath bathymetric surveys collected in five oceanographic cruises. This paper reviews the prehistoric and historic collapses that have occurred offshore of Antilles arc islands and summarizes ongoing research on emplacement processes.

Evidence for carbonate platform failure during rapid sea-level rise; ca 14 000 year old bioclastic flow deposits in the Lesser Antilles

Bioclastic flow deposits offshore from the Soufrie`re Hills volcano on Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles were deposited by the largest volume sediment flows near this active volcano in the last 26 kyr. The volume of these deposits exceeds that of the largest historic volcanic dome collapse in the world, which occurred on Montserrat in 2003. These flows were most probably generated by a large submarine slope failure of the carbonate shelf comprising the south west flank of Antigua or the east flank of Redonda; adjacent islands that are not volcanically active. The bioclastic flow deposits are relatively coarse-grained and either ungraded or poorly graded, and were deposited by non cohesive debris flow and high density turbidity currents. The bioclastic deposit often comprises multiple sub-units that cannot be correlated between core sites; some located just 2 km apart. Multiple sub-units in the bioclastic deposit result from either flow reflection, stacking of multiple debris flow lobes, and/or multi-stage collapse of the initial landslide. This study provides unusually precise constraints on the age of this mass flow event that occurred at ca 14 ka. Few large submarine landslides have been well dated, but the slope failures that have been dated are commonly associated with periods of rapid sea-level change.