462 resultados para Bayesian approaches
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Health information systems are being implemented in countries by governments and regional health authorities in an effort to modernize healthcare. With these changes, there has emerged a demand by healthcare organizations for nurses graduating from college and university programs to have acquired nursing informatics competencies that would allow them to work in clinical practice settings (e.g. hospitals, clinics, home care etc). In this paper we examine the methods employed by two different countries in developing national level nursing informatics competencies expected of undergraduate nurses prior to graduation (i.e. Australia, Canada). This work contributes to the literature by describing the science and methods of nursing informatics competency development at a national level.
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Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.
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This study used next generation sequencing technologies to investigate growth in a cultured crustacean. The objective was to identify and characterise specific gene loci that contribute important phenotypic variation to growth as well as to develop a large set of SNP markers in candidate genes for assessing correlations between specific mutations and individual growth performance. The genomic dataset generated provides a fundamental resource for application in future crustacean stock improvement programs. Ultimately, the data can be applied to development of culture lines with improved growth performance.
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A novel in-cylinder pressure method for determining ignition delay has been proposed and demonstrated. This method proposes a new Bayesian statistical model to resolve the start of combustion, defined as being the point at which the band-pass in-cylinder pressure deviates from background noise and the combustion resonance begins. Further, it is demonstrated that this method is still accurate in situations where there is noise present. The start of combustion can be resolved for each cycle without the need for ad hoc methods such as cycle averaging. Therefore, this method allows for analysis of consecutive cycles and inter-cycle variability studies. Ignition delay obtained by this method and by the net rate of heat release have been shown to give good agreement. However, the use of combustion resonance to determine the start of combustion is preferable over the net rate of heat release method because it does not rely on knowledge of heat losses and will still function accurately in the presence of noise. Results for a six-cylinder turbo-charged common-rail diesel engine run with neat diesel fuel at full, three quarters and half load have been presented. Under these conditions the ignition delay was shown to increase as the load was decreased with a significant increase in ignition delay at half load, when compared with three quarter and full loads.
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Energy efficiency of buildings is attracting significant attention from the research community as the world is moving towards sustainable buildings design. Energy efficient approaches are measures or ways to improve the energy performance and energy efficiency of buildings. This study surveyed various energy-efficient approaches for commercial building and identifies Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) and Green applications (Living wall, Green facade and Green roof) as most important and effective methods. An in-depth investigation was carried out on these energy-efficient approaches. It has been found that no ETTV model has been developed for sub-tropical climate of Australia. Moreover, existing ETTV equations developed for other countries do not take roof heat gain into consideration. Furthermore, the relationship of ETTV and different Green applications have not been investigated extensively in any literature, and the energy performance of commercial buildings in the presence of Living wall, Green facade and Green roof has not been investigated in the sub-tropical climate of Australia. The study has been conducted in two phases. First, the study develops the new formulation, coefficient and bench mark value of ETTV in the presence of external shading devices. In the new formulation, roof heat gain has been included in the integrated heat gain model made of ETTV. In the 2nd stage, the study presents the relationship of thermal and energy performance of (a) Living wall and ETTV (b) Green facade and ETTV (c) Combination of Living wall, Green facade and ETTV (d) Combination of Living wall, Green Roof and ETTV in new formulations. Finally, the study demonstrates the amount of energy that can be saved annually from different combinations of Green applications, i.e., Living wall, Green facade; combination of Living wall and Green facade; combination of Living wall and Green roof. The estimations are supported by experimental values obtained from extensive experiments of Living walls and Green roofs.
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Literacy studies have begun to examine the spatial dimension of literacy practices in a way that foregrounds space, and that considers space as constitutive to human relations and practices. This chapter provides an introduction to spatial literacy research, providing a guide to key theorists, themes, and studies that have shaped historical and new developments in spatial approaches to literacy practice and pedagogy. It begins by reconceptualising socio-spatial approaches to literacy research and defines terms. Intersections with related social theories are examined, with an emphasis on critical approaches and the politics of space. It clarifies the relationship between socio-spatial and socio-cultural paradigms, revisiting the spatial in seminal socio-cultural research. It covers new ground,including networks, flows, and deterritorialisation of literacy practice. The chapter concludes with challenges and recommendations for future language research and educational practice.
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BACKGROUND: The treatment for deep surgical site infection (SSI) following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) varies internationally and it is at present unclear which treatment approaches are used in Australia. The aim of this study is to identify current treatment approaches in Queensland, Australia, show success rates and quantify the costs of different treatments. METHODS: Data for patients undergoing primary THA and treatment for infection between January 2006 and December 2009 in Queensland hospitals were extracted from routinely used hospital databases. Records were linked with pathology information to confirm positive organisms. Diagnosis and treatment of infection was determined using ICD-10-AM and ACHI codes, respectively. Treatment costs were estimated based on AR-DRG cost accounting codes assigned to each patient hospital episode. RESULTS: A total of n=114 patients with deep surgical site infection were identified. The majority of patients (74%) were first treated with debridement, antibiotics and implant retention (DAIR), which was successful in eradicating the infection in 60.3% of patients with an average cost of $13,187. The remaining first treatments were 1-stage revision, successful in 89.7% with average costs of $27,006, and 2-stage revisions, successful in 92.9% of cases with average costs of $42,772. Multiple treatments following 'failed DAIR' cost on average $29,560, for failed 1-stage revision were $24,357, for failed 2-stage revision were $70,381 and were $23,805 for excision arthroplasty. CONCLUSIONS: As treatment costs in Australia are high primary prevention is important and the economics of competing treatment choices should be carefully considered. These currently vary greatly across international settings.
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The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.
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Despite growing recognition of creativity's importance for young people, the creativity of adolescents remains a neglected field of study. Hence, grounded theory research was conducted with 20 adolescents from two Australian schools regarding their self-reported experiences of creativity in diverse domains. Four approaches to the creative process – adaptation, transfer, synthesis, and genesis – emerged from the research. These approaches used by students across a range of domains contribute to the literature in two key ways: (a) explaining how adolescents engage in the creative process, theorised from adolescent creators’ self-reports of their experiences and (b) confirms hybrid theories that recognise that creativity has elements of both domain-generality and domain-specificity. The findings have educational implications for both students and teachers. For students, enhancing metacognitive awareness of their preferred approaches to creativity was reported as a valuable experience in itself, and might also enable adolescents to expand their creativity through experimenting with other ways of engaging in the creative process. For teachers, using these understandings to underpin their pedagogies can promote metacognitive awareness and experimentation, and also provide teachers with a framework for assessing students’ creative processes.
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Phylogenetic relationships within the Tabanidae are largely unknown, despite their considerable medical and ecological importance. The first robust phylogenetic hypothesis for the horse fly tribe Scionini is provided, completing the systematic placement of all tribes in the subfamily Pangoniinae. The Scionini consists of seven mostly southern hemisphere genera distributed in Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand and South America. A 5757. bp alignment of 6 genes, including mitochondrial (COI and COII), ribosomal (28S) and nuclear (AATS and CAD regions 1, 3 and 4) genes, was analysed for 176 taxa using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches. Results indicate the Scionini are strongly monophyletic, with the exclusion of the only northern hemisphere genus Goniops. The South American genera Fidena, Pityocera and Scione were strongly monophyletic, corresponding to current morphology-based classification schemes. The most widespread genus Scaptia was paraphyletic and formed nine strongly supported monophyletic clades, each corresponding to either the current subgenera or several previously synonymised genera that should be formally resurrected. Molecular results also reveal a newly recognised genus endemic to New Zealand, formerly placed within Scaptia. Divergence time estimation was employed to assess the global biogeographical patterns in the Pangoniinae. These analyses demonstrated that the Scionini are a typical Gondwanan group whose diversification was influenced by the fragmentation of that ancient land mass. Furthermore, results indicate that the Scionini most likely originated in Australia and subsequently radiated to New Zealand and South American by both long distance dispersal and vicariance. The phylogenetic framework of the Scionini provided herein will be valuable for taxonomic revisions of the Tabanidae.
Homeostatic epistemology : reliability, coherence and coordination in a Bayesian virtue epistemology
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How do agents with limited cognitive capacities flourish in informationally impoverished or unexpected circumstances? Aristotle argued that human flourishing emerged from knowing about the world and our place within it. If he is right, then the virtuous processes that produce knowledge, best explain flourishing. Influenced by Aristotle, virtue epistemology defends an analysis of knowledge where beliefs are evaluated for their truth and the intellectual virtue or competences relied on in their creation. However, human flourishing may emerge from how degrees of ignorance are managed in an uncertain world. Perhaps decision-making in the shadow of knowledge best explains human wellbeing—a Bayesian approach? In this dissertation I argue that a hybrid of virtue and Bayesian epistemologies explains human flourishing—what I term homeostatic epistemology. Homeostatic epistemology supposes that an agent has a rational credence p when p is the product of reliable processes aligned with the norms of probability theory; whereas an agent knows that p when a rational credence p is the product of reliable processes such that: 1) p meets some relevant threshold for belief (such that the agent acts as though p were true and indeed p is true), 2) p coheres with a satisficing set of relevant beliefs and, 3) the relevant set of beliefs is coordinated appropriately to meet the integrated aims of the agent. Homeostatic epistemology recognizes that justificatory relationships between beliefs are constantly changing to combat uncertainties and to take advantage of predictable circumstances. Contrary to holism, justification is built up and broken down across limited sets like the anabolic and catabolic processes that maintain homeostasis in the cells, organs and systems of the body. It is the coordination of choristic sets of reliably produced beliefs that create the greatest flourishing given the limitations inherent in the situated agent.
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We have previously reported a preliminary taxonomy of patient error. However, approaches to managing patients' contribution to error have received little attention in the literature. This paper aims to assess how patients and primary care professionals perceive the relative importance of different patient errors as a threat to patient safety. It also attempts to suggest what these groups believe may be done to reduce the errors, and how. It addresses these aims through original research that extends the nominal group analysis used to generate the error taxonomy. Interviews were conducted with 11 purposively selected groups of patients and primary care professionals in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. The total number of participants was 83, including 64 patients. Each group ranked the importance of possible patient errors identified through the nominal group exercise. Approaches to managing the most important errors were then discussed. There was considerable variation among the groups in the importance rankings of the errors. Our general inductive analysis of participants' suggestions revealed the content of four inter-related actions to manage patient error: Grow relationships; Enable patients and professionals to recognise and manage patient error; be Responsive to their shared capacity for change; and Motivate them to act together for patient safety. Cultivation of this GERM of safe care was suggested to benefit from 'individualised community care'. In this approach, primary care professionals individualise, in community spaces, population health messages about patient safety events. This approach may help to reduce patient error and the tension between personal and population health-care.
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Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!
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This thesis developed and applied Bayesian models for the analysis of survival data. The gene expression was considered as explanatory variables within the Bayesian survival model which can be considered the new contribution in the analysis of such data. The censoring factor that is inherent of survival data has also been addressed in terms of its impact on the fitting of a finite mixture of Weibull distribution with and without covariates. To investigate this, simulation study were carried out under several censoring percentages. Censoring percentage as high as 80% is acceptable here as the work involved high dimensional data. Lastly the Bayesian model averaging approach was developed to incorporate model uncertainty in the prediction of survival.
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Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.