Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Setting measureable goals with young people : qualitative feedback from the Goal Attainment Scale in youth mental health

Introduction Measuring occupational performance is an essential part of clinical practice; however, there is little research on service user perceptions of measures. The aim of this investigation was to explore the acceptability and utility of one occupational performance outcome measure, Goal Attainment Scaling, with young people (12–25 years old) seeking psychological help. Method Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten young people seeking help from a youth mental health clinic. Interviews were audio taped and a field diary kept. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Results were verified by member checking. Results All participants were able to engage in using Goal Attainment Scaling to set goals for therapy, and reported the process to be useful. The participants identified the physical location and ownership of the scale was important to help motivate them to work on their goals. Conclusion Young help-seekers see Goal Attainment Scaling as an acceptable tool to facilitate the establishment of functional goals. Young service users were particularly keen to maintain control over the physical location of completed forms.

Large scale multiuser digital mind mapping tool : a study in usability

Project work can involve multiple people from varying disciplines coming together to solve problems as a group. Large scale interactive displays are presenting new opportunities to support such interactions with interactive and semantically enabled cooperative work tools such as intelligent mind maps. In this paper, we present a novel digital, touch-enabled mind-mapping tool as a first step towards achieving such a vision. This first prototype allows an evaluation of the benefits of a digital environment for a task that would otherwise be performed on paper or flat interactive surfaces. Observations and surveys of 12 participants in 3 groups allowed the formulation of several recommendations for further research into: new methods for capturing text input on touch screens; inclusion of complex structures; multi-user environments and how users make the shift from single- user applications; and how best to navigate large screen real estate in a touch-enabled, co-present multi-user setting.

A continental-scale tool for acoustic identification of European bats

Summary 1. Acoustic methods are used increasingly to survey and monitor bat populations. However, the use of acoustic methods at continental scales can be hampered by the lack of standardized and objective methods to identify all species recorded. This makes comparable continent-wide monitoring difficult, impeding progress towards developing biodiversity indicators, transboundary conservation programmes and monitoring species distribution changes. 2. Here we developed a continental-scale classifier for acoustic identification of bats, which can be used throughout Europe to ensure objective, consistent and comparable species identifications. We selected 1350 full-spectrum reference calls from a set of 15 858 calls of 34 European species, from EchoBank, a global echolocation call library. We assessed 24 call parameters to evaluate how well they distinguish between species and used the 12 most useful to train a hierarchy of ensembles of artificial neural networks to distinguish the echolocation calls of these bat species. 3. Calls are first classified to one of five call-type groups, with a median accuracy of 97·6%. The median species-level classification accuracy is 83·7%, providing robust classification for most European species, and an estimate of classification error for each species. 4. These classifiers were packaged into an online tool, iBatsID, which is freely available, enabling anyone to classify European calls in an objective and consistent way, allowing standardized acoustic identification across the continent. 5. Synthesis and applications. iBatsID is the first freely available and easily accessible continental- scale bat call classifier, providing the basis for standardized, continental acoustic bat monitoring in Europe. This method can provide key information to managers and conservation planners on distribution changes and changes in bat species activity through time.

The clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia as a routine assessment in nursing homes

Objective To examine the clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) in nursing homes. Setting 14 nursing homes in Sydney and Brisbane, Australia. Participants 92 residents with a mean age of 85 years. Measurements Consenting residents were assessed by care staff for depression using the CSDD as part of their routine assessment. Specialist clinicians conducted assessment of depression using the Semi-structured Clinical Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders for residents without dementia or the Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression in Alzheimer Disease for residents with dementia to establish expert clinical diagnoses of depression. The diagnostic performance of the staff completed CSDD was analyzed against expert diagnosis using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The CSDD showed low diagnostic accuracy, with areas under the ROC curve being 0.69, 0.68 and 0.70 for the total sample, residents with dementia and residents without dementia, respectively. At the standard CSDD cutoff score, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 59% for the total sample, 69% and 57% for residents with dementia, and 75% and 61% for residents without dementia. The Youden index (for optimizing cut-points) suggested different depression cutoff scores for residents with and without dementia. Conclusion When administered by nursing home staff the clinical utility of the CSDD is highly questionable in identifying depression. The complexity of the scale, the time required for collecting relevant information, and staff skills and knowledge of assessing depression in older people must be considered when using the CSDD in nursing homes.

Estimating the impact of reduced inertia on frequency stability due to large-scale wind penetration in Australian electricity network

Large-scale integration of non-inertial generators such as wind farms will create frequency stability issues due to reduced system inertia. Inertia based frequency stability study is important to predict the performance of power system with increased level of renewables. This paper focuses on the impact large-scale wind penetration on frequency stability of the Australian Power Network. MATLAB simulink is used to develop a frequency based dynamic model utilizing the network data from a simplified 14-generator Australian power system. The loss of generation is modeled as the active power disturbance and minimum inertia required to maintain the frequency stability is determined for five-area power system.

Clustering and labeling a web scale document collection using Wikipedia clusters

Clustering is an important technique in organising and categorising web scale documents. The main challenges faced in clustering the billions of documents available on the web are the processing power required and the sheer size of the datasets available. More importantly, it is nigh impossible to generate the labels for a general web document collection containing billions of documents and a vast taxonomy of topics. However, document clusters are most commonly evaluated by comparison to a ground truth set of labels for documents. This paper presents a clustering and labeling solution where the Wikipedia is clustered and hundreds of millions of web documents in ClueWeb12 are mapped on to those clusters. This solution is based on the assumption that the Wikipedia contains such a wide range of diverse topics that it represents a small scale web. We found that it was possible to perform the web scale document clustering and labeling process on one desktop computer under a couple of days for the Wikipedia clustering solution containing about 1000 clusters. It takes longer to execute a solution with finer granularity clusters such as 10,000 or 50,000. These results were evaluated using a set of external data.

What is the scale of intimate partner homicide?

Intimate partner homicides are fatal violent attacks perpetrated by intimate partners, and are often the extreme and unplanned consequence of abusive relationships. Although recognised as an important risk factor for death and disability among women, previous country-level assessments and the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010)4 have not considered the extent of intimate partner violence among male victims...

Large Scale Simulations of Hippocampal-Neocortical Interactions in a Parallel Version of Genesis

A hippocampal-CA3 memory model was constructed with PGENESIS, a recently developed version of GENESIS that allows for distributed processing of a neural network simulation. A number of neural models of the human memory system have identified the CA3 region of the hippocampus as storing the declarative memory trace. However, computational models designed to assess the viability of the putative mechanisms of storage and retrieval have generally been too abstract to allow comparison with empirical data. Recent experimental evidence has shown that selective knock-out of NMDA receptors in the CA1 of mice leads to reduced stability of firing specificity in place cells. Here a similar reduction of stability of input specificity is demonstrated in a biologically plausible neural network model of the CA3 region, under conditions of Hebbian synaptic plasticity versus an absence of plasticity. The CA3 region is also commonly associated with seizure activity. Further simulations of the same model tested the response to continuously repeating versus randomized nonrepeating input patterns. Each paradigm delivered input of equal intensity and duration. Non-repeating input patterns elicited a greater pyramidal cell spike count. This suggests that repetitive versus non-repeating neocortical inpus has a quantitatively different effect on the hippocampus. This may be relevant to the production of independent epileptogenic zones and the process of encoding new memories.

A thermal expulsion approach to homogeneous large-volume methacrylate monolith preparation; enabling large-scale rapid purification of biomolecules

Numerous efforts have been dedicated to the synthesis of large-volume methacrylate monoliths for large-scale biomolecules purification but most were obstructed by the enormous release of exotherms during preparation, thereby introducing structural heterogeneity in the monolith pore system. A significant radial temperature gradient develops along the monolith thickness, reaching a terminal temperature that supersedes the maximum temperature required for structurally homogenous monoliths preparation. The enormous heat build-up is perceived to encompass the heat associated with initiator decomposition and the heat released from free radical-monomer and monomer-monomer interactions. The heat resulting from the initiator decomposition was expelled along with some gaseous fumes before commencing polymerization in a gradual addition fashion. Characteristics of 80 mL monolith prepared using this technique was compared with that of a similar monolith synthesized in a bulk polymerization mode. An extra similarity in the radial temperature profiles was observed for the monolith synthesized via the heat expulsion technique. A maximum radial temperature gradient of only 4.3°C was recorded at the center and 2.1°C at the monolith peripheral for the combined heat expulsion and gradual addition technique. The comparable radial temperature distributions obtained birthed identical pore size distributions at different radial points along the monolith thickness.

Development of a pilot-scale bacterial fermentation for plasmid-based biopharmaceutical production using a stoichiometric medium

The recognition of the potential efficacy of plasmid DNA (pDNA) molecules as vectors in the treatment and prevention of emerging diseases has birthed the confidence to combat global pandemics. This is due to the close-to-zero safety concern associated with pDNA vectors compared to viral vectors in cell transfection and targeting. Considerable attention has been paid to the potential of pDNA vectors but comparatively less thought has been given to the practical challenges in producing large quantities to meet current rising demands. A pilot-scale fermentation scheme was developed by employing a stoichiometrically-designed growth medium whose exceptional plasmid yield performance was attested in a shake flask environment for pUC19 and pEGFP-N1 transformed into E. coliDH5α and E. coliJM109, respectively. Batch fermentation of E. coliDH5α-pUC19 employing the stoichiometric medium displayed a maximum plasmid volumetric and specific yield of 62.6 mg/L and 17.1 mg/g (mg plasmid/g dry cell weight), respectively. Fed-batch fermentation of E. coliDH5α-pUC19 on a glycerol substrate demonstrated one of the highest ever reported pilot-scale plasmid specific yield of 48.98 mg/g and a volumetric yield of 0.53 g/L. The attainment of high plasmid specific yields constitutes a decrease in plasmid manufacturing cost and enhances the effectiveness of downstream processes by reducing the proportion of intracellular impurities. The effect of step-rise temperature induction was also considered to maximize ColE1-origin plasmid replication.

Large-scale habitat mapping using vision-based AUVs : experiences, challenges & vehicle design

This paper overviews the development of a vision-based AUV along with a set of complementary operational strategies to allow reliable autonomous data collection in relatively shallow water and coral reef environments. The development of the AUV, called Starbug, encountered many challenges in terms of vehicle design, navigation and control. Some of these challenges are discussed with focus on operational strategies for estimating and reducing the total navigation error when using lower-resolution sensing modalities. Results are presented from recent field trials which illustrate the ability of the vehicle and associated operational strategies to enable rapid collection of visual data sets suitable for marine research applications.