'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

A dual-scale modelling approach for drying hygroscopic porous media

A new dualscale modelling approach is presented for simulating the drying of a wet hygroscopic porous material that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of wood at low temperatures and is valid in the so-called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradients of moisture content and temperature on the microscopic field using suitably-defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic mass and thermal fluxes to be defined as averages of the microscopic fluxes over the unit cell. This novel formulation accounts for the intricate coupling of heat and mass transfer at the microscopic scale but reduces to a classical homogenisation approach if a linear relationship is assumed between the microscopic gradient and flux. Simulation results for a sample of spruce wood highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual-scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to propose the form of the macroscopic fluxes prior to the simulations because these are determined as a direct result of the dual-scale formulation.

A variable-stepsize Jacobian-free exponential integrator for simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media : application to wood drying

A Jacobian-free variable-stepsize method is developed for the numerical integration of the large, stiff systems of differential equations encountered when simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media. Our method utilises the exponential Rosenbrock-Euler method, which is explicit in nature and requires a matrix-vector product involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix at each step of the integration process. These products can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods, which permit a large integration stepsize to be utilised without having to precondition the iterations. This means that our method is truly "Jacobian-free" - the Jacobian need never be formed or factored during the simulation. We assess the performance of the new algorithm for simulating the drying of softwood. Numerical experiments conducted for both low and high temperature drying demonstrates that the new approach outperforms (in terms of accuracy and efficiency) existing simulation codes that utilise the backward Euler method via a preconditioned Newton-Krylov strategy.

Media classification : Content regulation in an age of convergent media

This article outlines the key recommendations of the Australian Law Reform Commission’s review of the National Classification Scheme, as outlined in its report Classification – Content Regulation and Convergent Media (ALRC, 2012). It identifies key contextual factors that underpin the need for reform of media classification laws and policies, including the fragmentation of regulatory responsibilities and the convergence of media platforms, content and services, as well as discussing the ALRC’s approach to law reform.

A Companion to New Media Dynamics

A Companion to New Media Dynamics presents a state-of-the-art collection of multidisciplinary readings that examine the origins, evolution, and cultural underpinnings of the media of the digital age in terms of dynamic change Presents a state-of-the-art collection of original readings relating to new media in terms of dynamic change. - Features interdisciplinary contributions encompassing the sciences, social sciences, humanities and creative arts - Addresses a wide range of issues from the ownership and regulation of new media to their form and cultural uses - Provides readers with a glimpse of new media dynamics at three levels of scale: the ‘macro’ or system level; the ‘meso’ or institutional level; and ‘micro’ or agency level

Australian Media Law [4th ed.]

"This book covers media law subjects for legal practitioners and for tertiary law students or students in tertiary media courses." -- Libraries Australia.

Ambient media for the third place in urban environments

As ambient computing blends into the fabric of the modern urban environment developing a positive interplay between people, places, and technology to create enlivened, interactive cities becomes a necessary priority in how we imagine, understand, design, and develop cities. Designing technology for art, culture and gastronomic experiences, that are rich in community, can provide the means for collaborative action to (re)create cities that are lively, engaging, and promote a sense of well being as well as belonging.

Potentials of social media for tacit knowledge sharing amongst physicians : preliminary findings

Tacit knowledge sharing amongst physicians, such as the sharing of clinical experiences, skills, or know-how, or know-whom, is known to have a significant impact on the quality of medical diagnosis and decisions. This paper posits that social media can provide new opportunities for tacit knowledge sharing amongst physicians, and demonstrates this by presenting findings from a review of relevant literature and a survey conducted with physicians. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten physicians from around the world who were active users of social media. Initial thematic analysis revealed eight themes as potential contributions of social web tools to facilitate tacit knowledge flow amongst physicians. The emergent themes are defined, linked to the literature, and supported by instances of interview transcripts. Findings presented here are preliminary, and final results will be reported after accomplishing all phases of data collection and analysis.

Fashion meets journalism : mapping and evaluating Australian fashion media

This study demonstrates how to study fashion journalism from the point of view, that it is its own field of journalism, akin to other journalism beats such as politics, sports and health. There is scope here for comment on the co-evolution of fashion and journalism, leading to ‘fashion journalism’ developing as a distinct field of study in its own right. This research contributes more generally to the field of media and cultural studies, by developing the threepart producer/text/reader model, which is the standard ‘media studies’ analytical framework. The study of fashion media from a cultural studies perspective acknowledges that cultural studies has pioneered the formal study of both journalism and fashion, for instance in studies of women’s magazines; but it has not brought the two areas together sufficiently. What little work has been done, however, has allowed theorists to explore how magazines promote feminism and form culture, which acts as a step in concreting fashion’s importance theoretically. This thesis has contributed to cultural studies by showing the relationship between the corporate industry, of both fashion and media (producer), and the active audience (reader) can be rethought and brought up to date for the more interactive era of the 21st century.

Augmenting public participation : enhancing planning outcomes through the use of social media and web 2.0

Social media and web 2.0 tools offer opportunities to devise novel participation strategies that can engage previously difficult to reach as well as new segments of society in urban planning. This paper examines participatory planning in the four local government areas of Brisbane City Council, Gold Coast City Council, Redland City Council, and Toowoomba Regional Council, all situated in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper discusses how social media and web 2.0 tools can deliver a more engaging planning experience to citizens, and investigates local government’s current use and receptiveness to social media tools for plan making and community engagement. The study’s research informed the development of criteria to assess the level of participation reached through the current use of social media and web 2.0 in the four local government areas. This resulted in an adaptation of the International Association for Public Participation (IAP2) Toolbox to integrate these new tools which is being presented to encourage further discussion and evaluation by planning professionals.

Say goodbye to the fries : graduate careers in media, cultural and communication studies

This article addresses the paucity of systematic data on graduate careers in the arts and humanities in the broader context of enduring public and policy debates about the benefits of education to society, the relation between public and private good that is derivable from education, and the specific disciplinary angle that can be brought to bear on these questions from media, cultural and communication studies. We report findings from a survey of ten years of graduates from Queensland University of Technology’s courses in media, cultural and communication studies which indicate very high employment levels and generally positive accounts of the relevance of courses to working life. A major insight that can be drawn from the research is that media, cultural and communication studies deliver capabilities, skills and orientations which are themselves strongly aligned with the kinds of transferable generic attributes which facilitate transition into the workplace.

Stability studies of HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles made in insect cells after storage in various formulation media

Background: HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles (VLPs) expressed by baculovirus in insect cells are considered to be a very promising HIV-1 vaccine candidate, as they have been shown to elicit broad cellular immune responses when tested in animals, particularly when used as a boost to DNA or BCG vaccines. However, it is important for the VLPs to retain their structure for them to be fully functional and effective. The medium in which the VLPs are formulated and the temperature at which they are stored are two important factors affecting their stability. FINDINGS We describe the screening of 3 different readily available formulation media (sorbitol, sucrose and trehalose) for their ability to stabilise HIV-1 Pr55gag VLPs during prolonged storage. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was done on VLPs stored at two different concentrations of the media at three different temperatures (4[degree sign]C, --20[degree sign]C and -70[degree sign]C) over different time periods, and the appearance of the VLPs was compared. VLPs stored in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C retained their original appearance the most effectively over a period of 12 months. VLPs stored in 5% trehalose, sorbitol or sucrose were not all intact even after 1 month storage at the temperatures tested. In addition, we showed that VLPs stored under these conditions were able to be frozen and re-thawed twice before showing changes in their appearance. Conclusions Although the inclusion of other analytical tools are essential to validate these preliminary findings, storage in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C for 12 months is most effective in retaining VLP stability.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.