Classifier selection using sequential error ratio criterion for multi-instance and multi-sample fusion

Classifier selection is a problem encountered by multi-biometric systems that aim to improve performance through fusion of decisions. A particular decision fusion architecture that combines multiple instances (n classifiers) and multiple samples (m attempts at each classifier) has been proposed in previous work to achieve controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. Although analysis on text-dependent speaker verification has demonstrated better performance for fusion of decisions with favourable dependence compared to statistically independent decisions, the performance is not always optimal. Given a pool of instances, best performance with this architecture is obtained for certain combination of instances. Heuristic rules and diversity measures have been commonly used for classifier selection but it is shown that optimal performance is achieved for the `best combination performance' rule. As the search complexity for this rule increases exponentially with the addition of classifiers, a measure - the sequential error ratio (SER) - is proposed in this work that is specifically adapted to the characteristics of sequential fusion architecture. The proposed measure can be used to select a classifier that is most likely to produce a correct decision at each stage. Error rates for fusion of text-dependent HMM based speaker models using SER are compared with other classifier selection methodologies. SER is shown to achieve near optimal performance for sequential fusion of multiple instances with or without the use of multiple samples. The methodology applies to multiple speech utterances for telephone or internet based access control and to other systems such as multiple finger print and multiple handwriting sample based identity verification systems.

Are consumers fooled by discounts? An experimental test in a consumer search environment

In this article, we investigate experimentally whether people search optimally and how price promotions influence search behaviour. We implement a sequential search task with exogenous price dispersion in a baseline treatment and introduce discounts in two experimental treatments. We find that search behaviour is roughly consistent with optimal search but also observe some discount biases. If subjects do not know in advance where discounts are offered, the purchase probability is increased by 19 percentage points in shops with discounts, even after controlling for the benefit of the discount and for risk preferences. If consumers know in advance where discounts are given, then the bias is only weakly significant and much smaller (7 percentage points).

Self-reported likelihood of speeding : the effects of attitudes, personality, and perceived legitimacy of enforcement

The positive relationship between speed and crash risk and severity is robust and well-established. While excessive speeding is typically regarded by the public as a common contributing factor in road crashes, speeding remains a common traffic infringement and an arguably socially acceptable behaviour, particularly at low levels over the speed limit. This suggests that other factors potentially contribute to this disparity between crash perceptions and actual behaviours. Previous work has described associations between perceptions of the legitimacy of speed enforcement, attitudes, and how they relate to the likelihood of speeding. This study sought to more closely examine the nature of the relationships between these variables. In total, 293 Queensland drivers participated in a study that examined how demographics, personality variables, attitudes, and perceptions of the legitimacy of enforcement contributed to drivers’ self-reported likelihood of speeding. Results suggested that positive attitudes towards speeding had the greatest impact on likelihood of speeding behaviours. Being younger and higher levels of the personality trait of extraversion were also associated with greater levels of self-reported likelihood of speeding. Attitudes were found to mediate the relationship between perceived legitimacy of speed enforcement and self-reported likelihood of speeding. A subgroup analysis of participants with positive and negative attitudes towards speeding revealed that a differential set of variables were predictive of self-reported likelihood of speeding for the two subgroups. This highlights the potential importance of attitudes in understanding the influence of perceptions of legitimacy of speed enforcement on speeding behaviour, and the need for targeted rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach to changing attitudes and ultimately behaviour. The findings of the current study help to further understand why some drivers continue to speed.

Determinants of drink-driving and association between drink-driving and road traffic fatalities in Ghana

Aim The objective is to establish determinants of drink-driving and its association with traffic crashes in Ghana. Methods A multivariable logistic regression was used to establish significant determinants of drink-driving and a bivariate logistic regression to establish the association between drink–driving and road traffic crashes in Ghana. Results In total, 2,736 motorists were randomly stopped for breath testing of whom 8.7% tested positive for alcohol. Among the total participants, 5.5% exceeded the legal BAC limit of 0.08%. Formal education is associated with a reduced likelihood of drink-driving compared with drivers without formal education. The propensity to drink-drive is 1.8 times higher among illiterate drivers compared with drivers with basic education. Young adult drivers also recorded elevated likelihoods for driving under alcohol impairment compared with adult drivers. The odds of drink-driving among truck drivers is OR=1.81, (95% CI=1.16 to 2.82) and two wheeler riders is OR=1.41, (95% CI=0.47 to 4.28) compared with car drivers. Contrary to general perception, commercial car drivers have a significant reduced likelihood of 41%, OR=0.59, (95% CI=0.38 to 0.92) compared with the private car driver. Bivariate analysis conducted showed a significant association between the proportion of drivers exceeding the legal BAC limit and road traffic fatalities, p<0.001. The model predicts a 1% increase in the proportion of drivers exceeding the legal BAC to be associated with a 4% increase in road traffic fatalities, 95% CI= 3% to 5% and vice versa. Conclusion A positive and significant association between roadside alcohol prevalence and road traffic fatality has been established. Scaling up roadside breath test, determining standard drink and disseminating to the populace and formulating policies targeting the youth such as increasing minimum legal drinking age and reduced legal BAC limit for the youth and novice drivers might improve drink-driving related crashes in Ghana.

The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene variant C677T influences susceptibility to migraine with aura

Background The C677T variant in the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene is associated with increased levels of circulating homocysteine and is a mild risk factor for vascular disease. Migraine, with and without aura (MA and MO), is a prevalent and complex neurovascular disorder that may also be affected by genetically influenced hyperhomocysteinaemia. To determine whether the C677T variant in the MTHFR gene is associated with migraine susceptibility we utilised unrelated and family-based case-control study designs. Methods A total of 652 Caucasian migraine cases were investigated in this study. The MTHFR C677T variant was genotyped in 270 unrelated migraine cases and 270 controls as well as 382 affected subjects from 92 multiplex pedigrees. Results In the unrelated case-control sample we observed an over-representation of the 677T allele in migraine patients compared to controls, specifically for the MA subtype (40% vs. 33%) (χ2 = 5.70, P = 0.017). The Armitage test for trend indicated a significant dosage effect of the risk allele (T) for MA (χ2 = 5.72, P = 0.017). This linear trend was also present in the independent family-based sample (χ2 = 4.25, Padjusted = 0.039). Overall, our results indicate that the T/T genotype confers a modest, yet significant, increase in risk for the MA subtype (odds ratio: 2.0 – 2.5). No increased risk for the MO subtype was observed (P > 0.05). Conclusions In Caucasians, the C677T variant in the MTHFR gene influences susceptibility to MA, but not MO. Investigation into the enzyme activity of MTHFR and the role of homocysteine in the pathophysiology of migraine is warranted.

The methylentetrahydrofolate reductase gene variant (C677T) as a risk factor for essential hypertension in Caucasians

Essential hypertension (EH) is a common, multifactorial disorder likely to be influenced by multiple genes of modest effect. The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene C677T mutation is functionally important, being strongly associated with reduced enzyme activity and increased plasma levels of homocysteine. Mild hyperhomocysteinemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and hypothesised also to be involved in hypertension pathophysiology. The present study was performed to determine the prevalence of the 677T mutation in Australian Caucasian patients diagnosed with EH and to test whether the C677T variant is associated with the disorder. A case-control cohort, consisting of 250 EH patients and 250 age, sex and racially matched normotensive controls, were used for the association study. Comparison of C677T allele frequencies revealed a higher proportion of the mutant allele (T) in the EH group (40%) compared to unaffected controls (34%) (p=0.07). Furthermore, genotypic results indicated that the prevalence of the homozygous mutant genotype (T/T) in the affected group was higher than that of controls (14%:10%) (p=0.17). Interestingly, conditional logistic regression showed that the MTHFR C677T mutation conferred a mild, yet significant increase in risk of essential hypertension after adjusting for body mass index (odds ratio=1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-2.37, p=0.03). These findings require further investigation in large independent samples, but suggest that essential hypertension, like CVD, may be mildly influenced by the MTHFR C677T variant.

A simple test method for profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift

A new simple test method using small scale models has been developed for testing profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift/suction forces. This simple method should replace the large scale test method using two-span claddings used at present. It can be used for roof or wall cladding systems fastened with screw fasteners at crests or valleys.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

International corporate entrepreneurship among SMEs : a test of Stevenson's notion of entrepreneurial management

Geographical market expansion is included in various definitions of entrepreneurship as it entails the opening up of new markets (for example, Davidsson 2003). Expansion into new international markets and launch of new products in international markets are also consistent with definitions of entrepreneurship which center on the pursuit of opportunities {e.g.\Stevenson, 1983 #922;Gartner, 1993 #931}. Accordingly, the decision by managers of small, internationally active businesses to continue to internationalize can be viewed as an entrepreneurial act. In spite of the fact that both start-ups and existing firms can behave entrepreneurially by expanding into new international markets, the attention of entrepreneurship researchers interested in international activities has largely focused on international new ventures (INVs); that is, business organizations that internationalize from inception (Oviatt, and McDougall 1994; Oviatt, and McDougall 1997). Consequently, pursuit of international opportunities by established small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) lacks theoretical understanding and empirical investigation through an entrepreneurship lens. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge at the entrepreneurship-internationalization interface by testing whether Stevenson’s opportunity-based conceptualization of entrepreneurial management (Stevenson 1983; Stevenson and Gumpert 1985; Stevenson and Jarillo 1990) can explain the attainment of continued entrepreneurial outcomes by SMEs operating in foreign markets. We choose Stevenson’s conceptualization as it gauges firm-level characteristics that are theorized to facilitate the pursuit of entrepreneurial opportunities, which arguably is at the heart of SMEs’ continued venturing into international markets.

In vitro biocompatibility of different polyester membranes

Nowadays, synthetic biodegradable polymers, such as aliphatic polyesters, are largely used in tissue engineering. They provide several advantages compared to natural materials which use is limited by immunocompatibility, graft availability, etc. In this work, poly(L-lactic) acid (PLLA), poly(DL-lactic) acid (PDLA), poly-epsilon-caprolactone (PCL), poly(L-lactic)-co-caprolactone (molar ratio 70/30) (PLCL) were selected because of their common use in tissue engineering. The membranes were elaborated by solvent casting. Membrane morphology was investigated by atomic force microscopy. The membranes were seeded with human fibroblasts from cell line CRL 2703 in order to evaluate the biocompatibility by the Alamar blue test. The roughness of the membranes ranged from 4 nm for PDLA to 120 nm and they presented very smooth surface except for PCL which beside a macroscopic structure due to its hydrophobicity. Human fibroblasts proliferated over 28 days on the membranes proving the non-in vitro toxicity of the materials and of the processing method. A further step will be the fabrication of three-dimensional scaffold for tissue engineering and the treatment of the scaffolds to augment cell adhesion.

Sequential decision fusion of multibiometrics applied to text-dependent speaker verification for controlled errors

Reliability of the performance of biometric identity verification systems remains a significant challenge. Individual biometric samples of the same person (identity class) are not identical at each presentation and performance degradation arises from intra-class variability and inter-class similarity. These limitations lead to false accepts and false rejects that are dependent. It is therefore difficult to reduce the rate of one type of error without increasing the other. The focus of this dissertation is to investigate a method based on classifier fusion techniques to better control the trade-off between the verification errors using text-dependent speaker verification as the test platform. A sequential classifier fusion architecture that integrates multi-instance and multisample fusion schemes is proposed. This fusion method enables a controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. For statistically independent classifier decisions, analytical expressions for each type of verification error are derived using base classifier performances. As this assumption may not be always valid, these expressions are modified to incorporate the correlation between statistically dependent decisions from clients and impostors. The architecture is empirically evaluated by applying the proposed architecture for text dependent speaker verification using the Hidden Markov Model based digit dependent speaker models in each stage with multiple attempts for each digit utterance. The trade-off between the verification errors is controlled using the parameters, number of decision stages (instances) and the number of attempts at each decision stage (samples), fine-tuned on evaluation/tune set. The statistical validation of the derived expressions for error estimates is evaluated on test data. The performance of the sequential method is further demonstrated to depend on the order of the combination of digits (instances) and the nature of repetitive attempts (samples). The false rejection and false acceptance rates for proposed fusion are estimated using the base classifier performances, the variance in correlation between classifier decisions and the sequence of classifiers with favourable dependence selected using the 'Sequential Error Ratio' criteria. The error rates are better estimated by incorporating user-dependent (such as speaker-dependent thresholds and speaker-specific digit combinations) and class-dependent (such as clientimpostor dependent favourable combinations and class-error based threshold estimation) information. The proposed architecture is desirable in most of the speaker verification applications such as remote authentication, telephone and internet shopping applications. The tuning of parameters - the number of instances and samples - serve both the security and user convenience requirements of speaker-specific verification. The architecture investigated here is applicable to verification using other biometric modalities such as handwriting, fingerprints and key strokes.

Cone signals and activity in myopia and emmetropia

Myopia (short-sightedness) is a common ocular disorder of children and young adults. Studies primarily using animal models have shown that the retina controls eye growth and the outer retina is likely to have a key role. One theory is that the proportion of L (long-wavelength-sensitive) and M (medium-wavelength-sensitive) cones is related to myopia development; with a high L/M cone ratio predisposing individuals to myopia. However, not all dichromats (persons with red-green colour vision deficiency) with extreme L/M cone ratios have high refractive errors. We predict that the L/M cone ratio will vary in individuals with normal trichromatic colour vision but not show a systematic difference simply due to refractive error. The aim of this study was to determine if L/M cone ratios in the central 30° are different between myopic and emmetropic young, colour normal adults. Information about L/M cone ratios was determined using the multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP). The mfVEP can be used to measure the response of visual cortex to different visual stimuli. The visual stimuli were generated and measurements performed using the Visual Evoked Response Imaging System (VERIS 5.1). The mfVEP was measured when the L and M cone systems were separately stimulated using the method of silent substitution. The method of silent substitution alters the output of three primary lights, each with physically different spectral distributions to control the excitation of one or more photoreceptor classes without changing the excitation of the unmodulated photoreceptor classes. The stimulus was a dartboard array subtending 30° horizontally and 30° vertically on a calibrated LCD screen. The m-sequence of the stimulus was 215-1. The N1-P1 amplitude ratio of the mfVEP was used to estimate the L/M cone ratio. Data were collected for 30 young adults (22 to 33 years of age), consisting of 10 emmetropes (+0.3±0.4 D) and 20 myopes (–3.4±1.7 D). The stimulus and analysis techniques were confirmed using responses of two dichromats. For the entire participant group, the estimated central L/M cone ratios ranged from 0.56 to 1.80 in the central 3°-13° diameter ring and from 0.94 to 1.91 in the more peripheral 13°-30° diameter ring. Within 3°-13°, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.20±0.33 and the mean was similar, 1.20±0.26, for the myopic group. For the 13°-30° ring, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.48±0.27 and it was slightly lower in the myopic group, 1.30±0.27. Independent-samples t-test indicated no significant difference between the L/M cone ratios of the emmetropic and myopic group for either the central 3°-13° ring (p=0.986) or the more peripheral 13°-30° ring (p=0.108). The similar distributions of estimated L/M cone ratios in the sample of emmetropes and myopes indicates that there is likely to be no association between the L/M cone ratio and refractive error in humans.

Board age and gender diversity : a test of competing linear and curvilinear predictions

The inconsistent findings of past board diversity research demand a test of competing linear and curvilinear diversity–performance predictions. This research focuses on board age and gender diversity, and presents a positive linear prediction based on resource dependence theory, a negative linear prediction based on social identity theory, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction based on the integration of resource dependence theory with social identity theory. The predictions were tested using archival data on 288 large organizations listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, with a 1-year time lag between diversity (age and gender) and performance (employee productivity and return on assets). The results indicate a positive linear relationship between gender diversity and employee productivity, a negative linear relationship between age diversity and return on assets, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between age diversity and return on assets. The findings provide additional evidence on the business case for board gender diversity and refine the business case for board age diversity.

Effects of mobile phone distraction on drivers’ reaction times

Distraction resulting from mobile phone use whilst driving has been shown to increase the reaction times of drivers, thereby increasing the likelihood of a crash. This study compares the effects of mobile phone conversations on reaction times of drivers responding to traffic events that occur at different points in a driver’s field of view. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test a group of young drivers on various simulated driving tasks including a traffic event that occurred within the driver’s central vision—a lead vehicle braking suddenly—and an event that occurred within the driver’s peripheral—a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing from a footpath. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), and while engaged in hands-free and handheld phone conversations. The drivers were aged between 21 to 26 years and split evenly by gender. Differences in reaction times for an event in a driver’s central vision were not statistically significant across phone conditions, probably due to a lower speed selection by the distracted drivers. In contrast, the reaction times to detect an event that originated in a distracted driver’s peripheral vision were more than 50% longer compared to the baseline condition. A further statistical analysis revealed that deterioration of reaction times to an event in the peripheral vision was greatest for distracted drivers holding a provisional licence. Many critical events originate in a driver’s periphery, including vehicles, bicyclists, and pedestrians emerging from side streets. A reduction in the ability to detect these events while distracted presents a significant safety concern that must be addressed.

Proof of concept : A bioinformatic and serological screening method for identifying new peptide antigens for Chlamydia trachomatis related sequelae in women

This study aimed to identify new peptide antigens from Chlamydia (C.) trachomatis in a proof of concept approach which could be used to develop an epitope-based serological diagnostic for C. trachomatis related infertility in women. A bioinformatics analysis was conducted examining several immunodominant proteins from C. trachomatis to identify predicted immunoglobulin epitopes unique to C. trachomatis. A peptide array of these epitopes was screened against participant sera. The participants (all female) were categorized into the following cohorts based on their infection and gynecological history; acute (single treated infection with C. trachomatis), multiple (more than one C. trachomatis infection, all treated), sequelae (PID or tubal infertility with a history of C. trachomatis infection), and infertile (no history of C. trachomatis infection and no detected tubal damage). The bioinformatics strategy identified several promising epitopes. Participants who reacted positively in the peptide 11 ELISA were found to have an increased likelihood of being in the sequelae cohort compared to the infertile cohort with an odds ratio of 16.3 (95% c.i. 1.65 – 160), with 95% specificity and 46% sensitivity (0.19-0.74). The peptide 11 ELISA has the potential to be further developed as a screening tool for use during the early IVF work up and provides proof of concept that there may be further peptide antigens which could be identified using bioinformatics and screening approaches.