Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Intersex onscreen: An overview of recent fictional characters with intersex variations on television

Throughout history, people with intersex variations have been positioned somewhere between ‘prodigy literature and pornography, mythology and medical discourse’ (Gilbert 2000, 145). Indubitably, contemporary representations have changed in step with societal values, yet it could be argued there is still slippage, and, moreover, very little is seen or heard about intersex at all. Where once there was the awe and horror of the highly visible carnival sideshow or medical treatise, the intersex body is now rendered absent by medical intervention, which is invoked to fix the intersexed in both mind and body. This paper explores the fictional representation of people with intersex variations on screen – television and film in predominantly the genres of drama and comedy – arriving finally at characters originating from program-makers willing to work closely with the intersex community. Such texts disrupt unwarranted categorization and erasure by “owning” discursive practices, defying current medical interference and promoting ethical debates around the will-to-normalise what is considered to be aberrant, deviant and abject.

Anticipating Chinese Tourists Arrivals in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.

THE DRINKING DRIVER, A guide to the five part series ONE FOR THE ROAD

THE DRINKING DRIVER is a guide for listeners to the Adult Education radio series ONE FOR THE ROAD, a five-part series on drink-driving and Australia’s road toll. ONE FOR THE ROAD was produced by Lee Parker and Julie Levi, with assistance from the Federal Office of Road Safety in Canberra. The five programs, presented by Lee Parker were first broadcast on ABC Radio National in January 1989, and repeated on Radio National and Regional Stations across Australia in April/May 1989. THE DRINKING DRIVER was written by Mark King, Senior Project Officer with the Road Safety Division of the South Australian Department of Transport.

Clancestry Conversation Series

The Clancestry Conversation series forms part of QPAC's Clancestry Festival which is an annual celebration of the arts and cultural practices of the world's First Nations Peoples with a particular focus on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

The Chinese Television Industry

Television is a massive industry in China, yet fewer people are watching television screens. This ground-breaking study explores how television content is changing, how the Chinese government is responding to the challenges presented by digital media, and how businesses are brokering alliances in both traditional and new media sectors. Table of Contents Acknowledgments p. vi Introduction p. 1 1 Television in Transition p. 8 2 Nation Building p. 34 3 Soft Power p. 56 4 Formats p. 85 5 Channels and Content p. 111 6 Convergence p. 141 7 Rethinking Chinese Television Research p. 164 Bibliography p. 173 Index p. 184

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.