Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

The prolongation of length of stay because of Clostridium difficile infection

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) possibly extends hospital length of stay (LOS); however, the current evidence does not account for the time-dependent bias, ie, when infection is incorrectly analyzed as a baseline covariate. The aim of this study was to determine whether CDI increases LOS after managing this bias. Methods We examined the estimated extra LOS because of CDI using a multistate model. Data from all persons hospitalized >48 hours over 4 years in a tertiary hospital in Australia were analyzed. Persons with health care-associated CDIs were identified. Cox proportional hazards models were applied together with multistate modeling. Results One hundred fifty-eight of 58,942 admissions examined had CDI. The mean extra LOS because of infection was 0.9 days (95% confidence interval: −1.8 to 3.6 days, P = .51) when a multistate model was applied. The hazard of discharge was lower in persons who had CDI (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.42; P < .001) when a Cox proportional hazard model was applied. Conclusion This study is the first to use multistate models to determine the extra LOS because of CDI. Results suggest CDI does not significantly contribute to hospital LOS, contradicting findings published elsewhere. Conversely, when methods prone to result in time-dependent bias were applied to the data, the hazard of discharge significantly increased. These findings contribute to discussion on methods used to evaluate LOS and health care-associated infections.

Deformation of a three-dimensional red blood cell in a stenosed micro-capillary

Red blood cells (RBCs) exhibit different types of motions and deformations when the blood flows through capillaries. Interestingly, due to the complex three-dimensional structure of the RBC membrane, RBCs show three-dimensional motions and deformations in the blood flow. These motions and deformations of the RBCs highly depend on the stiffness of the RBC membrane and on the geometrical parameters of the capillary through which blood flows. However, capillaries always do not have uniform cross sections and some capillaries have stenosed segments, where cross sectional area suddenly reduces. Further, some diseases can alter the stiffness of the RBC membrane drastically. In this study, the deformation behaviour of a single three-dimensional RBC is examined, when it moves through a stenosed capillary. A three-dimensional spring network is used to model the RBC membrane. The RBC’s inside and outside fluids are discretized into a finite number of mass points and treated by smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method. The capillary is considered as a rigid tube with a stenosed section. The deformation index, mean velocity and total energy of the RBC are analysed when it flows through the stenosed capillary. Further, motion and deformation of the RBCs with different membrane stiffness (KB) are compared when they flow through the stenosed segment of the capillary. The simulation results demonstrate the RBCs are subjected to a larger deformation when they move through the stenosed part of the capillary and the RBCs with lower KBvalues easily pass through the stenosed segment of the capillary. Further, RBCs having higher KBvalues have a lower mean velocity and it leads to slow down the overall blood flow rate

Deformation of a single red blood cell in a microvessel

Red blood cells (RBCs) are the most common type of cells in human blood and they exhibit different types of motions and deformed shapes in capillary flows. The behaviour of the RBCs should be studied in order to explain the RBC motion and deformation mechanism. This article presents a numerical simulation method for RBC deformation in microvessels. A two dimensional spring network model is used to represent the RBC membrane, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. The forces acting on the RBC membrane are obtained from the principle of virtual work. The whole fluid domain is discretized into a finite number of particles using smoothed particle hydrodynamics concepts and the motions of all the particles are solved using Navier--Stokes equations. Minimum energy concepts are used to simulate the deformed shape of the RBC model. To verify the model, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in a Poiseuille flow and the characteristic parachute shape of the RBC is observed. Further simulations reveal that the RBC shows a tank treading motion when it flows in a linear shear flow.

Formation of the three-dimensional geometry of the red blood cell membrane

Red blood cells (RBCs) are nonnucleated liquid capsules, enclosed in deformable viscoelastic membranes with complex three dimensional geometrical structures. Generally, RBC membranes are highly incompressible and resistant to areal changes. However, RBC membranes show a planar shear deformation and out of plane bending deformation. The behaviour of RBCs in blood vessels is investigated using numerical models. All the characteristics of RBC membranes should be addressed to develop a more accurate and stable model. This article presents an effective methodology to model the three dimensional geometry of the RBC membrane with the aid of commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics 4.2a and Fortran programming. Initially, a mesh is generated for a sphere using the COMSOL Multiphysics software to represent the RBC membrane. The elastic energy of the membrane is considered to determine a stable membrane shape. Then, the actual biconcave shape of the membrane is obtained based on the principle of virtual work, when the total energy is minimised. The geometry of the RBC membrane could be used with meshfree particle methods to simulate motion and deformation of RBCs in micro-capillaries

Surveillance snapshot of Clostridium difficile infection in hospitals across Queensland detects binary toxin producing ribotype UK 244

In North America and Europe, the binary toxin positive Clostridium difficile strains of the ribotypes 027 and 078 have been associated with death, toxic megacolon and other adverse outcomes. Following an increase in C. difficile infections (CDIs) in Queensland, a prevalence study involving 175 hospitals was undertaken in early 2012, identifying 168 cases of CDI over a 2 month period. Patient demographics and clinical characteristics were recorded, and C. difficile isolates were ribotyped and tested for the presence of binary toxin genes. Most patients (106/168, 63.1%) were aged over 60 years. Overall, 98 (58.3%) developed symptoms after hospitalisation; 89 cases (53.0%) developed symptoms more than 48 hours after admission. Furthermore, 27 of the 62 (67.7%) patients who developed symptoms in the community ad been hospitalised within the last 3 months. Thirteen of the 168 (7.7%) cases identified had severe disease, resulting in admission to the Intensive Care Unit or death within 30 days of the onset of symptoms. The 3 most common ribotypes isolated were UK 002 (22.9%), UK 014 (13.3%) and the binary toxin-positive ribotype UK 244 (8.4%). The only other binary toxin positive ribotype isolated was UK 078 (n = 1). Of concern was the detection of the binary toxin positive ribotype UK 244, which has recently been described in other parts of Australia and New Zealand. No isolates were of the international epidemic clone of ribotype UK 027, although ribotype UK 244 is genetically related to this clone. Further studies are required to track the epidemiology of ribotype UK 244 in Australia and New Zealand. Commun Dis Intell 2014;38(4):E279–E284.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (BP) in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) estimates by age and sex were obtained from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey adult data. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in 2000. Monte Carlo simulation modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa Subjects Adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and other cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results High BP was estimated to have caused 46 888 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 44 878 - 48 566) or 9% (95% uncertainty interval 8.6 - 9.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000, and 390 860 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 377 955 - 402 256) or 2.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.3 - 2.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Overall, 50% of stroke, 42% of IHD, 72% of hypertensive disease and 22% of other CVD burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high BP (systolic BP ≥ 115 mmHg). Conclusions High BP contributes to a considerable burden of CVD in South Africa and results indicate that there is considerable potential for health gain from implementing BP-lowering interventions that are known to be highly costeffective.

Antibodies against human herpesvirus 8 in black South African patients with cancer

Background Infection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) has been consistently linked to Kaposi's sarcoma, but its mode of transmission, association with other cancers, and interaction with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are largely unknown. Methods Between January 1992 and December 1997, we interviewed 3591 black patients with cancer in Johannesburg and Soweto, South Africa. Blood was tested for antibodies against HIV-1 and HHV-8 in 3344 of the patients. Antibodies against HHV-8 were detected with an indirect immunofluorescence assay. The intensity of the fluorescent signal correlated well with the titers of antibodies (P<0.001). The relations among the presence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, sociodemographic and behavioral factors, type of cancer, and the presence or absence of coexistent HIV-1 infection were examined with the use of unconditional logistic-regression models. Results Among the 3293 subjects with cancers other than Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 32 percent, which did not differ significantly from the standardized seroprevalence among black blood donors. Among these 3293 patients, the prevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 increased with increasing age (P<0.001) and an increasing number of sexual partners (P=0.05) and decreased with increasing years of education (P=0.007); it was not strongly associated with HIV-1 infection. Anti–HHV-8 antibodies were more frequent among black than white blood donors (P<0.001). Among the 51 patients with Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 83 percent, significantly higher than the prevalence among those without Kaposi's sarcoma (P<0.001). For 16 other specific types of cancer, including multiple myeloma (108 cases) and prostate cancer (202 cases), the variation in the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was not remarkable. At a given intensity of fluorescence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, Kaposi's sarcoma was more frequent among HIV-1–positive patients than among those who were HIV-1–negative (P<0.001). Conclusions Among black patients with cancer in South Africa, the seroprevalence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies is high and is specifically associated with Kaposi's sarcoma, particularly at high titers.

The spectrum of HIV-1 related cancers in South Africa

Despite the high prevalence of infection by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in South Africa, information on its association with cancer is sparse. Our study was carried out to examine the relationship between HIV and a number of cancer types or sites that are common in South Africa. A total of 4,883 subjects, presenting with a cancer or cardiovascular disease at the 3 tertiary referral hospitals in Johannesburg, were interviewed and had blood tested for HIV. Odds ratios associated with HIV infection were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression models for 16 major cancer types where data was available for 50 or more patients. In the comparison group, the prevalence of HIV infection was 8.3% in males and 9.1% in females. Significant excess risks associated with HIV infection were found for Kaposi's sarcoma (OR=21.9, 95% CI=12.5–38.6), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (OR=5.0, 95%CI=2.7–9.5), vulval cancer (OR=4.8, 95%CI=1.9–12.2) and cervical cancer (OR=1.6, 95%CI=1.1–2.3) but not for any of the other major cancer types examined, including Hodgkin disease, multiple myeloma and lung cancer. In Johannesburg, South Africa, HIV infection was associated with significantly increased risks of Kaposi's sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and cancers of the cervix and the vulva. The relative risks for Kaposi's sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated with HIV infection were substantially lower than those found in the West.

Irregular meal timing is associated with helicobacter pylori infection and gastritis

Background Helicobacter pylori (HP) is associated with chronic gastritis and gastric cancer, and more than half of the world’s population is chronically infected. The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate whether an irregular meal pattern is associated with increased risk of gastritis and HP infection. Methods The study involved 323 subjects, divided into three groups: subjects with HP infection and gastritis, with gastritis, and a control group. Subjects were interviewed on eating habits and meal timing. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare groups. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) were derived controlling for gender, age, stress and probiotic consumption. Results Subjects who deviated from their regular meals by 2 hours or more had a significantly higher incidence of HP infection with gastritis (adjusted OR= 13.3, 95% CI 5.3–33.3, p<0.001) and gastritis (adjusted OR=6.1, 95% CI 2.5–15.0, p<0.001). Subjects who deviated their meals by 2 hours or more, twice or more per week, had an adjusted OR of 6.3 and 3.5 of acquiring HP infection with gastritis (95% CI 2.6–15.2, p<0.001) and gastritis (95% CI 1.5–8.5, p<0.001) respectively. Conclusion Frequent deviation in meal timing over a prolonged period appears associated with increased risk of developing HP infection and gastritis.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.