The first x-ray diffraction peak of water as a function of temperature in the range 4 – 63 °C

X-ray diffraction structure functions for water flowing in a 1.5 mm diameter siphon in the temperature range 4 – 63 °C were obtained using a 20 keV beam at the Australian Synchrotron. These functions were compared with structure functions obtained at the Advanced Light Source for a 0.5 mm thick sample of water in the temperature range 1 – 77 °C irradiated with an 11 keV beam. The two sets of structure functions are similar, but there are subtle differences in the shape and relative position of the two functions suggesting a possible differences between the structure of bulk and siphon water. In addition, the first structural peak (Q0) for water in a siphon, showed evidence of a step-wise increase in Q0 with increasing temperature rather than a smoothly varying increase. More experiments are required to investigate this apparent difference.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Using the quantum probability ranking principle to rank interdependent documents

A known limitation of the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP) is that it does not cater for dependence between documents. Recently, the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP) has been proposed, which implicitly captures dependencies between documents through “quantum interference”. This paper explores whether this new ranking principle leads to improved performance for subtopic retrieval, where novelty and diversity is required. In a thorough empirical investigation, models based on the PRP, as well as other recently proposed ranking strategies for subtopic retrieval (i.e. Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR) and Portfolio Theory(PT)), are compared against the QPRP. On the given task, it is shown that the QPRP outperforms these other ranking strategies. And unlike MMR and PT, one of the main advantages of the QPRP is that no parameter estimation/tuning is required; making the QPRP both simple and effective. This research demonstrates that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to significant improvements.

Developing the quantum probability ranking principle

In this work, we summarise the development of a ranking principle based on quantum probability theory, called the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and we also provide an overview of the initial experiments performed employing the QPRP. The main difference between the QPRP and the classic Probability Ranking Principle, is that the QPRP implicitly captures the dependencies between documents by means of quantum interference". Subsequently, the optimal ranking of documents is not based solely on documents' probability of relevance but also on the interference with the previously ranked documents. Our research shows that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to consistently better retrieval effectiveness, while still being simple, elegant and tractable.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

A critical look at cryptographic hash function literature

The cryptographic hash function literature has numerous hash function definitions and hash function requirements, and many of them disagree. This survey talks about the various definitions, and takes steps towards cleaning up the literature by explaining how the field has evolved and accurately depicting the research aims people have today.

Source code watermarking based on function dependency oriented sequencing

In the current market, extensive software development is taking place and the software industry is thriving. Major software giants have stated source code theft as a major threat to revenues. By inserting an identity-establishing watermark in the source code, a company can prove it's ownership over the source code. In this paper, we propose a watermarking scheme for C/C++ source codes by exploiting the language restrictions. If a function calls another function, the latter needs to be defined in the code before the former, unless one uses function pre-declarations. We embed the watermark in the code by imposing an ordering on the mutually independent functions by introducing bogus dependency. Removal of dependency by the attacker to erase the watermark requires extensive manual intervention thereby making the attack infeasible. The scheme is also secure against subtractive and additive attacks. Using our watermarking scheme, an n-bit watermark can be embedded in a program having n independent functions. The scheme is implemented on several sample codes and performance changes are analyzed.

Fast re-parameterisation of Gaussian mixture models for robotics applications

Autonomous navigation and picture compilation tasks require robust feature descriptions or models. Given the non Gaussian nature of sensor observations, it will be shown that Gaussian mixture models provide a general probabilistic representation allowing analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations in the general Bayesian filtering problem. Each operation in the Bayesian filter for Gaussian mixture models multiplicatively increases the number of parameters in the representation leading to the need for a re-parameterisation step. A computationally efficient re-parameterisation step will be demonstrated resulting in a compact and accurate estimate of the true distribution.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Output feedback optimal control with contraints

In Chapters 1 through 9 of the book (with the exception of a brief discussion on observers and integral action in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5) we considered constrained optimal control problems for systems without uncertainty, that is, with no unmodelled dynamics or disturbances, and where the full state was available for measurement. More realistically, however, it is necessary to consider control problems for systems with uncertainty. This chapter addresses some of the issues that arise in this situation. As in Chapter 9, we adopt a stochastic description of uncertainty, which associates probability distributions to the uncertain elements, that is, disturbances and initial conditions. (See Section 12.6 for references to alternative approaches to model uncertainty.) When incomplete state information exists, a popular observer-based control strategy in the presence of stochastic disturbances is to use the certainty equivalence [CE] principle, introduced in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5 for deterministic systems. In the stochastic framework, CE consists of estimating the state and then using these estimates as if they were the true state in the control law that results if the problem were formulated as a deterministic problem (that is, without uncertainty). This strategy is motivated by the unconstrained problem with a quadratic objective function, for which CE is indeed the optimal solution (˚Astr¨om 1970, Bertsekas 1976). One of the aims of this chapter is to explore the issues that arise from the use of CE in RHC in the presence of constraints. We then turn to the obvious question about the optimality of the CE principle. We show that CE is, indeed, not optimal in general. We also analyse the possibility of obtaining truly optimal solutions for single input linear systems with input constraints and uncertainty related to output feedback and stochastic disturbances.We first find the optimal solution for the case of horizon N = 1, and then we indicate the complications that arise in the case of horizon N = 2. Our conclusion is that, for the case of linear constrained systems, the extra effort involved in the optimal feedback policy is probably not justified in practice. Indeed, we show by example that CE can give near optimal performance. We thus advocate this approach in real applications.

Key derivation function based on stream ciphers

A key derivation function (KDF) is a function that transforms secret non-uniformly random source material together with some public strings into one or more cryptographic keys. These cryptographic keys are used with a cryptographic algorithm for protecting electronic data during both transmission over insecure channels and storage. In this thesis, we propose a new method for constructing a generic stream cipher based key derivation function. We show that our proposed key derivation function based on stream ciphers is secure if the under-lying stream cipher is secure. We simulate instances of this stream cipher based key derivation function using three eStream nalist: Trivium, Sosemanuk and Rabbit. The simulation results show these stream cipher based key derivation functions offer efficiency advantages over the more commonly used key derivation functions based on block ciphers and hash functions.

Probability and story-telling : normative and descriptive models of juridical proof

The operation of the law rests on the selection of an account of the facts. Whether this involves prediction or postdiction, it is not possible to achieve certainty. Any attempt to model the operation of the law completely will therefore raise questions of how to model the process of proof. In the selection of a model a crucial question will be whether the model is to be used normatively or descriptively. Focussing on postdiction, this paper presents and contrasts the mathematical model with the story model. The former carries the normative stamp of scientific approval, whereas the latter has been developed by experimental psychologists to describe how humans reason. Neil Cohen's attempt to use a mathematical model descriptively provides an illustration of the dangers in not clearly setting this parameter of the modelling process. It should be kept in mind that the labels 'normative' and 'descriptive' are not eternal. The mathematical model has its normative limits, beyond which we may need to critically assess models with descriptive origins.

An investigation of the stress-buffering effects of social support in the occupational stress process as a function of team identification

This study explored how the social context influences the stress-buffering effects of social support on employee adjustment. It was anticipated that the positive relationship between support from colleagues and employee adjustment would be more marked for those strongly identifying with their work team. Furthermore, as part of a three-way interactive effect, it was predicted that high identification would increase the efficacy of coworker support as a buffer of two role stressors (role overload and role ambiguity). One hundred and 55 employees recruited from first-year psychology courses enrolled at two Australian universities were surveyed. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that the negative main effect of role ambiguity on job satisfaction was significant for those employees with low levels of team identification, whereas high team identifiers were buffered from the deleterious effect of role ambiguity on job satisfaction. There also was a significant interaction between coworker support and team identification. The positive effect of coworker support on job satisfaction was significant for high team identifiers, whereas coworker support was not a source of satisfaction for those employees with low levels of team identification. A three-way interaction emerged among the focal variables in the prediction of psychological well-being, suggesting that the combined benefits of coworker support and team identification under conditions of high demand may be limited and are more likely to be observed when demands are low.

An acute growth factor treatment that preserves function after spinal cord contusion injury

Inflammation of the spinal cord after traumatic spinal cord injury leads to destruction of healthy tissue. This “secondary degeneration” is more damaging than the initial physical damage and is the major contributor to permanent loss of functions. In our previous study we showed that combined delivery of two growth factors, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), significantly reduced secondary degeneration after hemi-section injury of the spinal cord in the rat. Growth factor treatment reduced the size of the lesion cavity at 30d compared to control animals and further reduced the cavity at 90d in treated animals while in control animals the lesion cavity continued to increase in size. Growth factor treatment also reduced astrogliosis and reduced macroglia/macrophage activation around the injury site. Treatment with individual growth factors alone had similar effects to control treatments. The present study investigated whether growth factor treatment would improve locomotor behaviour after spinal contusion injury, a more relevant preclinical model of spinal cord injury. The growth factors were delivered for the first 7d to the injury site via osmotic minipump. Locomotor behaviour was monitored at 1-28d after injury using the BBB score and at 30d using automated gait analysis. Treated animals had BBB scores of 18; Control animals scored 10. Treated animals had significantly reduced lesion cavities and reduced macroglia/macrophage activation around the injury site. We conclude that growth factor treatment preserved spinal cord tissues after contusion injury, thereby allowing functional recovery. This treatment has the potential to significantly reduce the severity of human spinal cord injuries.