A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Endurance test-rig for diagnostics and prognostics of rolling element bearings

Detection of faults in roller element bearing is a topic widely discussed in the scientific field. Bearings diagnostics is usually performed by analyzing experimental signals, almost always vibration signals, measured during operation. A number of signal processing techniques have been proposed and applied to measured vibrations. The diagnostic effectiveness of the techniques depends on their capacities and on the environmental conditions (i.e. environmental noise). The current trend, especially from an industrial point of view, is to couple the prognostics to the diagnostics. The realization of a prognostic procedure require the definition of parameters able to describe the bearing condition during its operation. Monitoring the values of these parameters during time allows to define their trends depending on the progress of the wear. In this way, a relation between the variation of the selected parameters and the wear progress, useful for diagnostics and prognostics of bearings in real industrial applications, can be established. In this paper, a laboratory test-rig designed to perform endurance tests on roller element bearing is presented. Since the test-rig has operated for a short time, only some preliminary available results are discussed.

A test rig for the condition-based maintenance application on the traction chain of very high speed trains

The preventive maintenance of traction equipment for Very High Speed Trains (VHST) nowadays is becoming very expensive owing to the high complexity and quality of these components that require high reliability. An efficient maintenance approach like the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) should be implemented to reduce the costs. For this purpose, an experimental full-scale test rig for the CBM of VHST traction equipment has been designed to investigate in detail failures in the main mechanical components of system, i.e. motor, bearings and gearbox. The paper describes the main characteristics of this unique test rig, able to reproduce accurately the train operating conditions, including the relative movements of the motor, the gearbox and the wheel axle. Gearbox, bearing seats and motor are equipped by accelerometers, thermocouples, torque meter and other sensors in different positions. The testing results give important information about the most suitable sensor position and type to be installed for each component and show the effectiveness of the techniques used for the signal analysis in order to identify faults of the gearbox and motor bearings.

An investigation approach to test protection intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) in IEC 61850 based substation automation systems (SAS) at station level

This thesis has developed a new approach to trace virtual protection signals in Electrical substation networks. The main goal of the research was to analyse the contents of the virtual signals transferred, using third party software. In doing so, a comprehensive test was done on a distance protection relay, using non-conventional test equipment.

Predicting movie ratings from audience behaviors

We propose a method of representing audience behavior through facial and body motions from a single video stream, and use these features to predict the rating for feature-length movies. This is a very challenging problem as: i) the movie viewing environment is dark and contains views of people at different scales and viewpoints; ii) the duration of feature-length movies is long (80-120 mins) so tracking people uninterrupted for this length of time is still an unsolved problem, and; iii) expressions and motions of audience members are subtle, short and sparse making labeling of activities unreliable. To circumvent these issues, we use an infrared illuminated test-bed to obtain a visually uniform input. We then utilize motion-history features which capture the subtle movements of a person within a pre-defined volume, and then form a group representation of the audience by a histogram of pair-wise correlations over a small-window of time. Using this group representation, we learn our movie rating classifier from crowd-sourced ratings collected by rottentomatoes.com and show our prediction capability on audiences from 30 movies across 250 subjects (> 50 hrs).

Modelling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 in human malaria to better understand malaria rapid diagnostic test performance

BACKGROUND: Effective diagnosis of malaria is a major component of case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on Plasmodium falciparumhistidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are popular for diagnosis of this most virulent malaria infection. However, concerns have been raised about the longevity of the PfHRP2 antigenaemia following curative treatment in endemic regions. METHODS: A model of PfHRP2 production and decay was developed to mimic the kinetics of PfHRP2 antigenaemia during infections. Data from two human infection studies was used to fit the model, and to investigate PfHRP2 kinetics. Four malaria RDTs were assessed in the laboratory to determine the minimum detectable concentration of PfHRP2. RESULTS: Fitting of the PfHRP2 dynamics model indicated that in malaria naive hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 1.4 x 10(-)(1)(3) g of PfHRP2 per parasite per replication cycle. The four RDTs had minimum detection thresholds between 6.9 and 27.8 ng/mL. Combining these detection thresholds with the kinetics of PfHRP2, it is predicted that as few as 8 parasites/muL may be required to maintain a positive RDT in a chronic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the model indicate that good quality PfHRP2-based RDTs should be able to detect parasites on the first day of symptoms, and that the persistence of the antigen will cause the tests to remain positive for at least seven days after treatment. The duration of a positive test result following curative treatment is dependent on the duration and density of parasitaemia prior to treatment and the presence and affinity of anti-PfHRP2 antibodies.

Scalar considerations in carrying capacity assessment : an Australian example

Regional resource self-sufficiency has been proposed as a way to improve food security by lessening the demand on long-distance transport. An online tool, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, was developed for Australian conditions in order to gauge self-sufficiency at three different scales: regional, state and national. It allows users to test a variety of societal behaviours such as diet, biofuel production, farming systems and ecological protection practices. Analysis developed from the Dashboard tests the effects of various resource consumption patterns on land carrying capacity. Findings reveal that Australia’s current carrying capacity is estimated to be over 40 million, but if calculated on a regional basis, this is reduced by almost half.

Revisiting the adoption of innovative products on Australian road infrastructure projects

Construction product innovation can exert a positive influence on project and industry performance. However, guidance is scarce on product innovation diffusion for road infrastructure, in contrast to the large body of literature on the manufacturing industry. A conceptual framework is proposed to understand these processes. Advice is given to managers based on the framework and a large quantitative survey. The framework focuses on contextual characteristics that influence the decision to adopt new-to-industry product innovation, as part of a diffusion process. Case study data are interpreted within the revised framework to test its value and disaggregate the broad obstacles to innovation. A large quantitative survey was then conducted to rank the relative importance of the obstacles constraining the adoption of innovative products on road construction projects. The three most important obstacles were found to be: (1) overemphasis on up-front project costs during tender stage; (2) disagreement over who carries the risk of new product failure; and (3) adversarial contract relations. The results suggest refinements to the conceptual framework to make it a more powerful tool for categorizing and analysing construction innovation obstacles. Results also suggest well-resourced repeat interactions within complementary procurement and regulatory systems will enhance the project teams’ ability to recognize and address innovation obstacles. Further, improved relationships are expected to decrease the need for an overly conservative approach to product approval and prescriptive specifications.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance : results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs : round 5 (2013)

WHO estimates that half the world’s population is at risk of malaria. In 2012, there were an estimated 207 million cases (with an uncertainty range of 135 million to 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000). Approximately 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 77% occur in children under 5 years. Malaria remains endemic in 104 countries, and, while parasite-based diagnosis is increasing, most suspected cases of malaria are still not properly confirmed, resulting in over-use of antimalarial drugs and poor disease monitoring (1)...

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013 : a country earmarked for malaria elimination

Background With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. Results All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of

Modelling attitudes to climate change : an order effect and a test between alternatives

Quantum-like models can be fruitfully used to model attitude change in a social context. Next steps require data, and higher dimensional models. Here, we discuss an exploratory study that demonstrates an order effect when three question sets about Climate Beliefs, Political Affiliation and Attitudes Towards Science are presented in different orders within a larger study of n=533 subjects. A quantum-like model seems possible, and we propose a new experiment which could be used to test between three possible models for this scenario.

A new Salmonella typhimurium NM5004 strain expressing rat glutathione S-transferase 5-5 : use in detection of genotoxicity of dihaloalkanes using an SOS/umu test system

The Escherichia coli mu operon was subcloned into a pKK233-2 vector containing rat glutathione S-transferase (GST) 5-5 cDNA and the plasmid thus obtained was introduced into Salmonella typhimurium TA1535. The newly developed strain S.typhimurium NM5004, was found to have 52-fold greater GST activity than the original umu strain S.typhimurium TA1535/pSK1002. We compared sensitivities of these two tester strains, NM5004 and TA1535/ pSK1002, for induction of umuC gene expression with several dihaloalkanes which are activated or inactivated by GST 5-5 activity. The induction of umuC gene expression by these chemicals was monitored by measuring the cellular P-galactosidase activity produced by umuC'lacZ fusion gene in these two tester strains. Ethylene dibromide, 1-bromo-2-chloroethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and methylene dichloride induced umuC gene expression more strongly in the NM5004 strain than the original strain, 4-Nitroquinoline 1-oxide and N-methyl-N'-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine were found to induce umuC gene expression to similar extents in both strains. In the case of 1-nitropyrene and 2-nitrofluorene, however, NM5004 strain showed weaker umuC gene expression responses than the original TA1535/ pSK1002 strain, 1,2-Epoxy-3-(4'-nitrophenoxy)propane, a known substrate for GST 5-5, was found to inhibit umuC induction caused by 1-bromo-2-chloroethane. These results indicate that this new tester NM5004 strain expressing a mammalian GST theta class enzyme may be useful for studies of environmental chemicals proposed to be activated or inactivated by GST activity.

Test, test, test, transmedia

In this 1972 documentary, The Computer Generation, by John Musilli, artist Stan Vanderbeek talks about the possibility of computers as an artist tool. My aim with drawing on this documentary is to compare the current state of transmedia with previous significant changes in media history, to illustrate how the current state of transmedia is quite diverse.