Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Property law and practice in Queensland : being a commentary on the Property Law Act 1974

A Commentary on the Property Law Act 1974 Queensland

Power-law viscous materials for analogue experiments: New data on the rheology of highly-filled silicone polymers

The selection of appropriate analogue materials is a central consideration in the design of realistic physical models. We investigate the rheology of highly-filled silicone polymers in order to find materials with a power-law strain-rate softening rheology suitable for modelling rock deformation by dislocation creep and report the rheological properties of the materials as functions of the filler content. The mixtures exhibit strain-rate softening behaviour but with increasing amounts of filler become strain-dependent. For the strain-independent viscous materials, flow laws are presented while for strain-dependent materials the relative importance of strain and strain rate softening/hardening is reported. If the stress or strain rate is above a threshold value some highly-filled silicone polymers may be considered linear visco-elastic (strain independent) and power-law strain-rate softening. The power-law exponent can be raised from 1 to ~3 by using mixtures of high-viscosity silicone and plasticine. However, the need for high shear strain rates to obtain the power-law rheology imposes some restrictions on the usage of such materials for geodynamic modelling. Two simple shear experiments are presented that use Newtonian and power-law strain-rate softening materials. The results demonstrate how materials with power-law rheology result in better strain localization in analogue experiments.

The Growing Pains of Data Breach Notification Law

Mandatory data breach notification laws are a novel statutory solution in relation to organizational protections of personal information. They require organizations which have suffered a breach of security involving personal information to notif'y those persons whose information may have been affected. These laws originated in the state based legislatures of the United States during the last decade and have subsequently garnered worldwide legislative interest. Despite their perceived utility, mandatory data breach notification laws have several conceptual and practical concems that limit the scope of their applicability, particularly in relation to existing information privacy law regimes. We outline these concerns, and in doing so, we contend that while mandatory data breach notification laws have many useful facets, their utility as an 'add-on' to enhance the failings of current information privacy law frameworks should not necessarily be taken for granted.

Reasonable adjustments in assessment : putting law and policy into practice in Australia

The Australian Disability Standards for Education 2005 (Cth) require education providers to make reasonable adjustments in educational assessment so that students with disability can participate on the same basis as other students and be able to demonstrate what they know and can do. Reasonableness is governed by a determination of the balance of interests, benefits and detriment to the parties involved. The Standards require providers to consult with students and associates on adjustments, although guidance on how consultation should occur and how the views of students and associates are to be taken into account is vague. In this article, we identify three principles to be considered in order to put appropriate and effective reasonable adjustments in assessment into practice. While Australian law and assessment contexts are used to examine intentions, expectations and practices in educational assessment for students with disability, we argue that these three principles must be considered in any national education system to ensure equitable assessment practices and achieve equitable educational inclusion for students with disability.

The assessment of students with disabilities : the Australian law as to reasonable adjustment and academic integrity

This paper explains the legislation which underpins the right to reasonable adjustment in education for students with disabilities in Australian schools. It gives examples of the kinds of adjustment which may be made to promote equality of opportunity in the area of assessment. It also considers how the law has constructed the border between reasonable adjustment and academic integrity.

Traffic harmony in China? Investigating driver perceptions of traffic law enforcement and social responsibility for harmonious road use.

Social harmony can manifest in many ways. In rapidly motorizing countries like China, a growing area of potential disharmony is road use. The increased ability to purchase a car for the first time and a subsequent increase in new drivers has seen several Chinese cities take unprecedented measures to manage congestion. There is a corresponding need to ensure effective traffic law enforcement in promoting a safe environment for all road users. This paper reports qualitative research conducted with Beijing car drivers to investigate perceptions of unsafe road use, penalties for traffic violations, and improvements for the current system. Overall, the findings suggest awareness among drivers of many of the key risk factors. A perceived lack of clarity in how penalties are determined was identified and drivers in-dicated a desire to know how revenue from traffic fines is used. Several suggestions for improving the current system included school/community education about road risks and traffic law. The rise of private car ownership in China may contribute to a more harmonious personal life, but at the same time, may contribute to a decrease in societal harmony. A major challenge for authorities in any country is to promote the idea of a collective responsibility for road safety (traffic harmony), especially to those who perceive that traffic rules do not apply to them. This is a potentially greater challenge for China as it strives to balance harmony on the road and harmony in the broader society.

Wrong way go back! Rediscovering the path for charity law reform

Problems with charity law jurisprudence persist. The difficulties arose in the 20th century and are fundamental to the way the doctrine is presently theorised. They grew out of the approach taken in Pemsel’s Case to the categorisation of the ‘spirit and intendment’ of the Preamble to the Statute of Charitable Uses. Recent statutory reforms, such as the Charities Act 2006 (Eng&W), have compounded the underlying problems rather than resolving them. This paper aims to stimulate thinking about a new foundation for charity jurisprudence – while the approach may seem radical, the paper argues that these new foundations can be discerned underlying the current jurisprudence. The difficulties can be overcome by rediscovering the underlying jurisprudence which is disregarded in the current approach to categorisation. Giving voice, in contemporary language, to that foundational jurisprudence, this paper provides a way out of the current problems. It also provides an alternative way of conceptualising the doctrine of charitable purpose to guide reform.

International conventions and model laws : their impact on domestic commercial law

Panellist commentary on delivered conference papers on the topic of ‘International Conventions and Model Laws - Their Impact on Domestic Commercial Law’.

Contract Law [4th ed.]

The fourth edition of Contract Law provides a comprehensive review of the principles of contract law. Complex topics are explained in a clear and accessible style that and illustrated by succinct cases. This text is also available with a casebook which gives students access to an expanded selection of primary and secondary materials.

Contract Law Case Book [2nd ed.]

This case book contains the essential sections of the most significant cases in Australian contract law. Ready access to this collection of cases enables students to experience the law through the judges’ own words, and to develop the skills of interpreting and analysing cases in order to refine their understanding of the law. Excerpts from important statutes and writings are also included.

The Sapphire Vortex : blending virtual world machinima with real world commentary for effective learning of criminal law

Traditional approaches to teaching criminal law in Australian law schools include lectures that focus on the transmission of abstracted and decontextualised knowledge, with content often prioritised at the expense of depth. This paper discusses The Sapphire Vortex, a blended learning environment that combines a suite of on-line modules using Second Life machinima to depict a narrative involving a series of criminal offences and the ensuing courtroom proceedings, expert commentary by practising lawyers and class discussions.