Pull-through failure tests of thin steel roof battens under wind uplift load

Thin profiled steel roof sheeting and battens are increasingly used in the construction of roofing systems of residential, commercial, industrial and farm buildings in Australia. The critical load combination of external wind suction and internal wind pressures that occur during high wind events such as thunderstorms and tropical cylcones often dislocate the roofing systems partially or even completely due to premature roof connection failures. Past wind damage investigations have shown that roof sheeting failures occured at their screw connections to battens. In most of these cases, the screw fastener head pulled through the thin roof sheeting whilst the screw fasteners also pulled out from the battens. Research studis undertaken on the roof sheeting to batten connection failures have improved this situation. However, the batten to rafter or truss connections have not been investigated adequately. Failure of these connections can cause the failure of the entire roof structure as observed during the recent high wind events. Therefore a detailed experimental study consisting of both small scale and full scale tests has been undertaken to investigate the steel roof batten pull-through failures in relation to many critical parameters such as steel batten geometry, thickness and grade, screw fastener head sizes and screw tightening. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the pull-through failure load results obtained from them. Finally it discusses the development of suitable design rules that can be used to determine the pull-through connection capacities of thin steel roof battens under wind uplift loads.

Who are our repeating students? Profiling students persisting after failure

Research on attrition has focused on the economic significance of low graduation rates in terms of costs to students (fees that do not culminate in a credential) and impact on future income. For a student who fails a unit and repeats the unit multiple times, the financial impact is significant and lasting (Bexley, Daroesman, Arkoudis & James 2013). There are obvious advantages for the timely completion of a degree, both for the student and the institution. Advantages to students include fee minimisation, enhanced engagement opportunities, effectual pathway to employment and a sense of worth, morale and cohort-identity benefits. Work undertaken by the QUT Analytics Project in 2013 and 2014 explored student engagement patterns capturing a variety of data sources and specifically, the use of LMS amongst students in 804 undergraduate units in one semester. Units with high failure rates were given further attention and it was found that students who were repeating a unit were less likely to pass the unit than students attempting it for the first time. In this repeating cohort, academic and behavioural variables were consistently more significant in the modelling than were any demographic variables, indicating that a student’s performance at university is far more impacted by what they do once they arrive than it is by where they come from. The aim of this poster session is to examine the findings and commonalities of a number of case studies that articulated the engagement activities of repeating students (which included collating data from Individual Unit Reports, academic and peer advising programs and engagement with virtual learning resources). Understanding the profile of the repeating student cohort is therefore as important as considering the characteristics of successful students so that the institution might be better placed to target the repeating students and make proactive interventions as early as possible.

A probabilistic framework for analysing the compositionality of conceptual combinations

Conceptual combination performs a fundamental role in creating the broad range of compound phrases utilised in everyday language. While the systematicity and productivity of language provide a strong argument in favour of assuming compositionality, this very assumption is still regularly questioned in both cognitive science and philosophy. This article provides a novel probabilistic framework for assessing whether the semantics of conceptual combinations are compositional, and so can be considered as a function of the semantics of the constituent concepts, or not. Rather than adjudicating between different grades of compositionality, the framework presented here contributes formal methods for determining a clear dividing line between compositional and non-compositional semantics. Compositionality is equated with a joint probability distribution modelling how the constituent concepts in the combination are interpreted. Marginal selectivity is emphasised as a pivotal probabilistic constraint for the application of the Bell/CH and CHSH systems of inequalities (referred to collectively as Bell-type). Non-compositionality is then equated with either a failure of marginal selectivity, or, in the presence of marginal selectivity, with a violation of Bell-type inequalities. In both non-compositional scenarios, the conceptual combination cannot be modelled using a joint probability distribution with variables corresponding to the interpretation of the individual concepts. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an empirical scenario of twenty-four non-lexicalised conceptual combinations.

Minimising the failure of rail joints through managing the localised condition of track

To effectively address the high rate of failure of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) in the heavy haul lines, a research plan was designed and implemented with particular attention to understand their mechanical behaviour and deterioration process. In this paper, part of this ongoing research is described. During the past decades many studies have tried to improve the service life of IRJs by introducing a new structural design or material for IRJ components. This paper looks into this problem from a different perspective highlighting the significance of localised condition of track to the loads and responses of the IRJs. Results from a series of field measurements conducted in a rail track within the Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) network are discussed. The interactive effects of IRJ responses and localised track condition are further investigated using the results obtained from numerical simulations. The field measurements and the simulation results provide valuable insight on the influence of track condition to the behaviour of IRJs.

In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Failure to launch: The self-regulating Md -MYB10R6 gene from apple is active in flowers but not leaves of Petunia

Coloured foliage due to anthocyanin pigments (bronze/red/black) is an attractive trait that is often lacking in many bedding, ornamental and horticultural plants. Apples (Malus × domestica) containing an allelic variant of the anthocyanin regulator, Md-MYB10R6, are highly pigmented throughout the plant, due to autoregulation by MYB10 upon its own promoter. We investigated whether Md-MYB10R6 from apple is capable of functioning within the heterologous host Petunia hybrida to generate plants with novel pigmentation patterns. The Md-MYB10R6 transgene (MYB10–R6pro:MYB10:MYB10term) activated anthocyanin synthesis when transiently expressed in Antirrhinumroseadorsea petals and petunia leaf discs. Stable transgenic petunias containing Md-MYB10R6 lacked foliar pigmentation but had coloured flowers, complementing the an2 phenotype of ‘Mitchell’ petunia. The absence of foliar pigmentation was due to the failure of the Md-MYB10R6 gene to self-activate in vegetative tissues, suggesting that additional protein partners are required for Md-MYB10 to activate target genes in this heterologous system. In petunia flowers, where endogenous components including MYB-bHLH-WDR (MBW) proteins were present, expression of the Md-MYB10R6 promoter was initiated, allowing auto-regulation to occur and activating anthocyanin production. Md-MYB10 is capable of operating within the petunia MBW gene regulation network that controls the expression of the anthocyanin biosynthesis genes, AN1 (bHLH) and MYBx (R3-MYB repressor) in petals.

Assessment of the risk of failure of high voltage substations due to environmental conditions and pollution on insulators

Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

Incidence and predictors of lower limb split-skin graft failure and primary closure dehiscence in day-case surgical patients

BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.

A Mouse Model of Early-Onset Renal Failure Due to a Xanthine Dehydrogenase Nonsense Mutation

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by renal fibrosis that can lead to end-stage renal failure, and studies have supported a strong genetic influence on the risk of developing CKD. However, investigations of the underlying molecular mechanisms are hampered by the lack of suitable hereditary models in animals. We therefore sought to establish hereditary mouse models for CKD and renal fibrosis by investigating mice treated with the chemical mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea, and identified a mouse with autosomal recessive renal failure, designated RENF. Three-week old RENF mice were smaller than their littermates, whereas at birth they had been of similar size. RENF mice, at 4-weeks of age, had elevated concentrations of plasma urea and creatinine, indicating renal failure, which was associated with small and irregularly shaped kidneys. Genetic studies using DNA from 10 affected mice and 91 single nucleotide polymorphisms mapped the Renf locus to a 5.8Mbp region on chromosome 17E1.3. DNA sequencing of the xanthine dehydrogenase (Xdh) gene revealed a nonsense mutation at codon 26 that co-segregated with affected RENF mice. The Xdh mutation resulted in loss of hepatic XDH and renal Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression. XDH mutations in man cause xanthinuria with undetectable plasma uric acid levels and three RENF mice had plasma uric acid levels below the limit of detection. Histological analysis of RENF kidney sections revealed abnormal arrangement of glomeruli, intratubular casts, cellular infiltration in the interstitial space, and interstitial fibrosis. TUNEL analysis of RENF kidney sections showed extensive apoptosis predominantly affecting the tubules. Thus, we have established a mouse model for autosomal recessive early-onset renal failure due to a nonsense mutation in Xdh that is a model for xanthinuria in man. This mouse model could help to increase our understanding of the molecular mechanisms associated with renal fibrosis and the specific roles of XDH and uric acid. © 2012 Piret et al.

A multimarker approach to diagnose and stratify heart failure

Background We have previously demonstrated that circulating NT-proBNP is truncated at the N and C termini. Aims of this study are three-fold: firstly to determine whether the NT-proBNP levels correlate with NYHA functional classes when measuring with different antibody pairs; secondly to evaluate the diagnostic potential of ProBNP and; thirdly to investigate whether combining NT-proBNP assays with or without ProBNP would lead to better diagnostic accuracies. Methods Plasma samples were collected from healthy controls (n = 52) and HF patients (n = 46). Customized AlphaLISA® immunoassays were developed and validated to measure the concentrations of proBNP and NT-proBNP (with antibodies targeting 13–45, 13–76, 28–76). The diagnostic performance and predictive value of proBNP and NT-proBNP assays and their combinations were evaluated. Results Plasma proBNP assay showed acceptable diagnostic performance. NT-proBNP13–76 assay is useful in diagnosing and stratifying HF patients. The diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP13–76 demonstrated improvement over commercial NT-proBNP tests. The combination of NT-proBNP13–76 with NT-proBNP28–76 assays gave the best diagnostic assay performance. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that while there is major heterogeneity in circulating NT-proBNP, specific epitopes of the peptides are extraordinarily stable, providing ideal targets for clinically useful diagnostic assays. Future new clinical diagnostic clinical trials should include a multimarker approach rather than using a single marker to diagnose HF.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Acute liver failure in children : a regional experience

Objective: To review the outcome of acute liver failure (ALF) and the effect of liver transplantation in children in Australia. Methodology: A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric patients referred with acute liver failure between 1985 and 2000 to the Queensland Liver Transplant Service, a paediatric liver transplant centre based at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, that is one of three paediatric transplant centres in Australia. Results: Twenty-six patients were referred with ALF. Four patients did not require transplantation and recovered with medical therapy while two were excluded because of irreversible neurological changes and died. Of the 20 patients considered for transplant, three refused for social and/or religious reasons, with 17 patients listed for transplantation. One patient recovered spontaneously and one died before receiving a transplant. There were 15 transplants of which 40% (6/15) were < 2 years old. Sixty-seven per cent (10/15) survived > 1 month after transplantation. Forty per cent (6/15) survived more than 6 months after transplant. There were only four long term survivors after transplant for ALF (27%). Overall, 27% (6/22) of patients referred with ALF survived. Of the 16 patients that died, 44% (7/16) were from neurological causes. Most of these were from cerebral oedema but two patients transplanted for valproate hepatotoxicity died from neurological disease despite good graft function. Conclusions: Irreversible neurological disease remains a major cause of death in children with ALF. We recommend better patient selection and early referral and transfer to a transplant centre before onset of irreversible neurological disease to optimize outcome of children transplanted for ALF.

Rank regression for accelerated failure time model with clustered and censored data

For clustered survival data, the traditional Gehan-type estimator is asymptotically equivalent to using only the between-cluster ranks, and the within-cluster ranks are ignored. The contribution of this paper is two fold: - (i) incorporating within-cluster ranks in censored data analysis, and; - (ii) applying the induced smoothing of Brown and Wang (2005, Biometrika) for computational convenience. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimating functions are given. We also carry out numerical studies to assess the performance of the proposed approach and conclude that the proposed approach can lead to much improved estimators when strong clustering effects exist. A dataset from a litter-matched tumorigenesis experiment is used for illustration.

Differences between Black and White South Africans in product failure attributions, anger and complaint behaviour

The purpose of this research is to extend an understanding of how Black and White South African consumers' causal attributions for major household appliance performance failures impact on their anger and subsequent complaint behaviour. A survey was administered to Black and White South African consumers who were dissatisfied with the performance of a major household appliance item. Respondents resided in a major metropolitan area. The findings showed that, compared to Whites, the Black South Africans felt a low but significantly higher external locus of causality and lower control, and experienced a higher level of anger regarding product failure. The level of anger determined the decision to take complaint action, but racial group determined the type of action taken. Blacks complained more actively to retailers and engaged more in private complaint action than Whites. These findings may show that Black South Africans are developing a more individualistic orientation as consumers. Therefore, researchers should consider the effect of cultural swapping when researching consumer behaviour in multi-cultural countries. Implications for retailers in terms of complaint handling are indicated.

Proposed vehicle impact speed: Severe injury probability relationships for selected crash types

Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.