The 'obesity paradox' in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Poor nutritional status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality independently of disease-severity (Collins et al).1 Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective role of obesity against mortality in COPD (Vestbo et al)2 which is contrary to data from the general population where obesity is associated with decreased life expectancy. This relationship has been referred to as the ‘obesity paradox’ and has been demonstrated in a number of chronic wasting conditions (Kalantar-Zadeh et al).3 This study investigated the existence of the obesity paradox in outpatients with COPD by examining the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year healthcare use and clinical outcome in terms of hospital admission rates, length of hospital stay, outpatient appointments and mortality. BMI was assessed in 424 outpatients with COPD, with measurements performed by specialist respiratory nurses during outpatient clinics. 1-year healthcare use was retrospectively collected from the date of BMI measurement. Abstract S163 Table 1 Patients classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (>30 kg/m2) experienced significantly fewer emergency hospital admissions, as well as a reduced length of hospital stay, in comparison to normal weight (20.0–24.9 kg/m2) or underweight (<20 kg/m2) outpatients. There was a significant negative trend between BMI classification and mortality. This study supports the existence of the ‘obesity paradox’ in COPD, not only in relation to reduced 1 year mortality rates but also in terms of reduced emergency hospital admissions and reduced length of hospital stay.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

Road safety in Singapore

Singapore is a highly developed country that has a well connected island-wide road transport system including a network of expressways. The road standards of Singapore are generally good and road safety level is very high by international standards. This chapter discusses road safety status in Singapore and highlights the practices that have been undertaken to enhance the road safety. Statistics show that road traffic fatalities were decreasing over the years, albeit an increasing trend for total crashes. Motorcyclists and pedestrians were two vulnerable road user groups and shared significant proportions respectively about 49% and 28% of total road traffic deaths. In particular, young riders and pedestrians had a higher crash potential. To enhance safety of those vulnerable road users, Singapore has taken several initiatives including infrastructure improvements like paving better skid-resistant materials at crash-prone sites, providing more rain shelters for motorcyclists, and installation of reflective signs and markings near school zones; safety campaigns and awareness programs like ride safe programme, the road courtesy campaign, and the anti-drink drive campaign. While Land Transport Authority (LTA) looks into road safety through engineering solutions and road infrastructure developments, the Traffic Police of Singapore is responsible for law enforcements and regulations. A number of non-government organizations, private companies, and university research groups are also continuously working with the Traffic Police to study, promote, and educate the general public on road safety matters.

Leveraging social network data for analytical CRM strategies : the introduction of social BI

The skyrocketing trend for social media on the Internet greatly alters analytical Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Against this backdrop, the purpose of this paper is to advance the conceptual design of Business Intelligence (BI) systems with data identified from social networks. We develop an integrated social network data model, based on an in-depth analysis of Facebook. The data model can inform the design of data warehouses in order to offer new opportunities for CRM analyses, leading to a more consistent and richer picture of customers? characteristics, needs, wants, and demands. Four major contributions are offered. First, Social CRM and Social BI are introduced as emerging fields of research. Second, we develop a conceptual data model to identify and systematize the data available on online social networks. Third, based on the identified data, we design a multidimensional data model as an early contribution to the conceptual design of Social BI systems and demonstrate its application by developing management reports in a retail scenario. Fourth, intellectual challenges for advancing Social CRM and Social BI are discussed.

Tracking the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism : insights from a high-precision Pb isotope record of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

The volcanic succession on Montserrat provides an opportunity to examine the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism over a ∼2.5 Ma period, extending from the andesites of the Silver Hills center, to the currently active Soufrière Hills volcano (February 2010). Here we present high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data, combined with trace element and Sr-Nd isotope data throughout this period of Montserrat's volcanic evolution. We demonstrate that each volcanic center; South Soufrière Hills, Soufrière Hills, Centre Hills and Silver Hills, can be clearly discriminated using trace element and isotopic parameters. Variations in these parameters suggest there have been systematic and episodic changes in the subduction input. The SSH center, in particular, has a greater slab fluid signature, as indicated by low Ce/Pb, but less sediment addition than the other volcanic centers, which have higher Th/Ce. Pb isotope data from Montserrat fall along two trends, the Silver Hills, Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills lie on a general trend of the Lesser Antilles volcanics, whereas SSH volcanics define a separate trend. The Soufrière Hills and SSH volcanic centers were erupted at approximately the same time, but retain distinctive isotopic signatures, suggesting that the SSH magmas have a different source to the other volcanic centers. We hypothesize that this rapid magmatic source change is controlled by the regional transtensional regime, which allowed the SSH magma to be extracted from a shallower source. The Pb isotopes indicate an interplay between subduction derived components and a MORB-like mantle wedge influenced by a Galapagos plume-like source.

FGFR2 point mutations in 466 Endometrioid Endometrial Tumors : relationship with MSI, KRAS, PIK3CA, CTNNB1 mutations and Clinicopathological features

Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.

Theorizing Police Response to Domestic Violence in Singapore: Police Subculture Revisited

This article focuses on the well documented, yet potentially contested concept of rank-and-file policesubculture to conceptualize policeresponse to situations of domesticviolence in Singapore. It argues that the utility of the concept to explaining police behavior is often undermined by an all-powerful, homogenous, and deterministic conception of it that fails to take into account the value of agency in police decision-making and the range of differentiated policeresponse in situations of domesticviolence. Through reviewing the literature on policeresponse to domesticviolence, this study called for the need to rework the concept of policesubculture by treating it as having a relationship with, and response to, the structural conditions of policing, while retaining a conception of the active role played by street-level officers in instituting a situational practice. Using Pierre Bourdieu's relational concepts of ‘habitus’ and ‘field,’ designating the cultural dispositions of policesubculture and structural conditions of policing respectively, the study attempted to reconceptualize the problem of policing domesticviolence with reference to the Singaporean context.

Prevalence and risk factors of childhood allergic diseases in eight metropolitan cities in China: A multicenter study

Background Several studies conducted during the past two decades suggested increasing trend of childhood allergic diseases in China. However, few studies have provided detailed description of geographic variation and explored risk factors of these diseases. This study investigated the pattern and risk factors of asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema in eight metropolitan cities in China. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey during November-December 2005 in eight metropolitan cities in China. A total of 23791 children aged 6-13 years participated in this survey. Questions from the standard questionnaire of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) were used to examine the pattern of current asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for childhood allergies. Results The average prevalence of childhood asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema across the eight cities was 3∙3% (95% Confidence interval (CI): 3∙1%, 3∙6%), 9∙8% (95% CI: 9∙4%, 10∙2%) and 5∙5% (95% CI: 5∙2%, 5∙8%), respectively. Factors related to lifestyle, mental health and socio-economic status were found to be associated with the prevalence of childhood allergies. These risk factors were unevenly distributed across cities and disproportionately affected the local prevalence. Conclusions There was apparent geographic variation of childhood allergies in China. Socio-environmental factors had strong impacts on the prevalence of childhood allergies; but these impacts differed across regions. Thus public health policies should specifically target at the local risk factors for each individual area.

As trajetorias de carreiras tradicionais estao dando passegem as proteanas? Um estudo com gereentes no setor public Australiano com foco em diferencas quanto ao genero ( Have traditional career paths given way to protean ones?: Evidence from senior managers in the Australian public sector)

Purpose – This mixed-method study aims to determine the extent to which the career paths of senior managers conform with the traditional versus protean elements described in the careers literature and whether these paths vary by gender. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 15 senior managers (seven women and eight men) in a large public sector agency in Australia were interviewed about their career trajectories to date. Data were coded according to four major areas which characterise and distinguish between traditional and protean careers: development, orientation of the employee, definition of success, and organisational environment. A total of 81 managers (34 women and 47 men) from the same organisation were also surveyed. Variables of interest were those that could be triangulated with qualitative data such as the availability of career opportunities. Findings – Results suggest that, contrary to much existing literature which proposes that all careers have been fundamentally altered, the traditional career which relies on length of service, geographic mobility and a steady climb up the corporate ladder, is still the dominant model in some organisations. However, the trend towards protean careers is evident and is more pronounced for women than for men. Research limitations/implications – The specific nature of the organisation (large, male-dominated, public sector) may limit the generalisability of results. Practical implications – The framework used to explore career paths according to traditional/ protean elements in this study may assist human resource practitioners to develop appropriate strategies which maximise the professional development of employees. Originality/value – The results of this research challenge the universality of change in the nature of careers, particularly in public sector environments.

Putting the Repository First: Implementing a Repository to RIS Workflow for QUT ePrints

As one of the first institutional repositories in Australia and the first in the world to have an institution-wide deposit mandate, QUT ePrints has great ‘brand recognition’ within the University (Queensland University of Technology) and beyond. The repository is managed by the library but, over the years, the Library’s repository team has worked closely with other departments (especially the Office of Research and IT Services) to ensure that QUT ePrints was embedded into the business processes and systems our academics use regularly. For example, the repository is the source of the publication information which displays on each academic’s Staff Profile page. The repository pulls in citation data from Scopus and Web of Science and displays the data in the publications records. Researchers can monitor their citations at a glance via the repository ‘View’ which displays all their publications. A trend in recent years has been to populate institutional repositories with publication details imported from the University’s research information system (RIS). The main advantage of the RIS to Repository workflow is that it requires little input from the academics as the publication details are often imported into the RIS from publisher databases. Sadly, this is also its main disadvantage. Generally, only the metadata is imported from the RIS and the lack of engagement by the academics results in very low proportions of records with open access full-texts. Consequently, while we could see the value of integrating the two systems, we were determined to make the repository the entry point for publication data. In 2011, the University funded a project to convert a number of paper-based processes into web-based workflows. This included a workflow to replace the paper forms academics used to complete to report new publications (which were later used by the data entry staff to input the details into the RIS). Publication details and full-text files are uploaded to the repository (by the academics or their nominees). Each night, the repository (QUT ePrints) pushes the metadata for new publications into a holding table. The data is checked by Office of Research staff the next day and then ‘imported’ into the RIS. Publication details (including the repository URLs) are pushed from the RIS to the Staff Profiles system. Previously, academics were required to supply the Office of research with photocopies of their publication (for verification/auditing purposes). The repository is now the source of verification information. Library staff verify the accuracy of the publication details and, where applicable, the peer review status of the work. The verification metadata is included in the information passed to the Office of Research. The RIS at QUT comprises two separate systems built on an Oracle database; a proprietary product (ResearchMaster) plus a locally produced system known as RAD (Research Activity Database). The repository platform is EPrints which is built on a MySQL database. This partly explains why the data is passed from one system to the other via a holding table. The new workflow went live in early April 2012. Tests of the technical integration have all been successful. At the end of the first 12 months, the impact of the new workflow on the proportion of full-texts deposited will be evaluated.

Geoproof : proofs of geographic location for cloud computing environment

Cloud computing has emerged as a major ICT trend and has been acknowledged as a key theme of industry by prominent ICT organisations. However, one of the major challenges that face the cloud computing concept and its global acceptance is how to secure and protect the data that is the property of the user. The geographic location of cloud data storage centres is an important issue for many organisations and individuals due to the regulations and laws that require data and operations to reside in specific geographic locations. Thus, data owners may need to ensure that their cloud providers do not compromise the SLA contract and move their data into another geographic location. This paper introduces an architecture for a new approach for geographic location assurance, which combines the proof of storage protocol (POS) and the distance-bounding protocol. This allows the client to check where their stored data is located, without relying on the word of the cloud provider. This architecture aims to achieve better security and more flexible geographic assurance within the environment of cloud computing.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases

We consider a hybrid model, created by coupling a continuum and an agent-based model of infectious disease. The framework of the hybrid model provides a mechanism to study the spread of infection at both the individual and population levels. This approach captures the stochastic spatial heterogeneity at the individual level, which is directly related to deterministic population level properties. This facilitates the study of spatial aspects of the epidemic process. A spatial analysis, involving counting the number of infectious agents in equally sized bins, reveals when the spatial domain is nonhomogeneous.

An investigation on the accuracy of regional ocean models through field trials

Recent efforts in mission planning for underwater vehicles have utilised predictive models to aid in navigation, optimal path planning and drive opportunistic sampling. Although these models provide information at a unprecedented resolutions and have proven to increase accuracy and effectiveness in multiple campaigns, most are deterministic in nature. Thus, predictions cannot be incorporated into probabilistic planning frameworks, nor do they provide any metric on the variance or confidence of the output variables. In this paper, we provide an initial investigation into determining the confidence of ocean model predictions based on the results of multiple field deployments of two autonomous underwater vehicles. For multiple missions conducted over a two-month period in 2011, we compare actual vehicle executions to simulations of the same missions through the Regional Ocean Modeling System in an ocean region off the coast of southern California. This comparison provides a qualitative analysis of the current velocity predictions for areas within the selected deployment region. Ultimately, we present a spatial heat-map of the correlation between the ocean model predictions and the actual mission executions. Knowing where the model provides unreliable predictions can be incorporated into planners to increase the utility and application of the deterministic estimations.

Lateral movements in composite high-rise buildings under seismic action

Daring human nature has already led to the construction of high-rise buildings in naturally challenging geological regions and in worse environments of the world. However; literature review divulges that there is a lag in research of certain generic principles and rules for the prediction of lateral movement in multistorey construction. The present competitive trend orders the best possible used of available construction material and resources. Hence; the mixed used of reinforced concrete with structural steel is gaining prevalence day by day. This paper investigates the effects of Seismic load on composite multistorey building provided with core wall and trusses through FEM modelling. The results showed that increased rigidity corresponds to lower period of vibration and hence higher seismic forces. Since Seismic action is a function of mass and response acceleration, therefore; mass increment generate higher earthquake load and thus cause higher impact base shear and overturning movement. Whereas; wind force depends on building exposed, larger the plan dimension greater is the wind impact. Nonetheless; outriggers trusses noticeably contribute, in improving the serviceability of structure subjected to wind and earthquake forces.